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Probability of delivery resulting from spontaneous labor after 38 weeks

[ Survey Results Intro | All Charts | Take the survey ]

The most important question I was trying to answer with the survey was this: "When is a baby most likely to spontaneously show up?" The graph above shows the percentages, based on 7183 responses. 5396 of the deliveries were as a result of labor occuring spontaneously. The chart only shows these deliveries, which is why the percentages do not add up to 100%, because only 75% of participants had spontaneous (non-induced) labor.

This page shows what day you'll likely give birth, if you're still pregnant at 38 weeks. To find out how week 38 compares to the other weeks overall or to find out the probability of delivery at 38 weeks, refer to the Length of pregnancy by week chart.

The statistics right now are as follows:

Data Table

The percentages are based on ALL births (including inductions)
DayWeekBirths Running TotalPercentRunning Total %
26638W,0D89891.2 % 1.2 %
26738W,1D891781.2 % 2.5 %
26838W,2D852631.2 % 3.7 %
26938W,3D1223851.7 % 5.4 %
27038W,4D1525372.1 % 7.5 %
27138W,5D1376741.9 % 9.4 %
27238W,6D1698432.4 % 11.7 %
27339W,0D18910322.6 % 14.4 %
27439W,1D17312052.4 % 16.8 %
27539W,2D17913842.5 % 19.3 %
27639W,3D23116153.2 % 22.5 %
27739W,4D25018653.5 % 26 %
27839W,5D25221173.5 % 29.5 %
27939W,6D29624134.1 % 33.6 %
28040W,0D30627194.3 % 37.9 %
28140W,1D30130204.2 % 42 %
28240W,2D27232923.8 % 45.8 %
28340W,3D26735593.7 % 49.5 %
28440W,4D24037993.3 % 52.9 %
28540W,5D24940483.5 % 56.4 %
28640W,6D24942973.5 % 59.8 %
28741W,0D25245493.5 % 63.3 %
28841W,1D17247212.4 % 65.7 %
28941W,2D14448652 % 67.7 %
29041W,3D14550102 % 69.7 %
29141W,4D10851181.5 % 71.3 %
29241W,5D8151991.1 % 72.4 %
29341W,6D6552640.9 % 73.3 %
29442W,0D5353170.7 % 74 %
29542W,1D2053370.3 % 74.3 %
29642W,2D2153580.3 % 74.6 %
29742W,3D1253700.2 % 74.8 %
29842W,4D953790.1 % 74.9 %
29942W,5D653850.1 % 75 %
30042W,6D253870 % 75 %
30143W,0D953960.1 % 75.1 %

Due Date Survey Data

Due date statistics: A study on the length of pregnancy
Probability of delivery resulting from spontaneous labor after 38 weeks
Probability of delivery within x days of a given date
Length of pregnancy by week
Spontaneous labor and due date determination
Length of pregnancy, comparing subsequent births for individual moms
Length of pregnancy for first time vs. second & third time moms
Length of pregnancy, type of delivery
Gestation vs. Birthweight
Probablity of Induction after a given day
Average day of spontaneous labor vs. age of mother at time of birth
Are more babies born during a full moon?
What's the most common day of the week for babies to be born?
I'm still pregnant at 40W. What's it mean?
Do winter babies arrive later?
What if I know my conception date?
Are boys or girls born later?
Subsequent pregnancy date search
How do inductions bias the due date statistics?
Birth Stories
Survey input dates

More Resources

Pregnancy Day-by-Day
Fast pregnancy calendar
Baby age calendar
EDD Icon Generator
Jo's Birth Story
Weeks vs. Months Explained
Charts generated by flot
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Recent Comments

For more support, encouragement, Q&A,
you are invited to join our pregnancy forum. We are dedicated to answering complicated questions as logically as we possibly can.

Bilingual Babies

Fri Mar 6 8:02 AM by meepster in Pregnancy & Parenting

I'm bilingual in Russian and English, but I picked up English at the age of 13. Not sure if it made me any smarter, but I do want to give my kid that advantage. My partner and I haven't really talked about how we're going to do it yet, but we do want to do it. If nothing else, he or she will always be able to make some money as a translator. I'm not a professional translator, but back when I was unemployed, I made some nice $$$ translating books.

I'm even thinking of hiring a Chinese-speaking nanny or babysitter, so that the kid will pick up Chinese as well as Russian and English. The kid is still gestating at this point, so we've got some time. :)


Breastfeeding & accoutrements thereof

Thu Feb 26 5:28 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

My boobs are small, and this is important for a couple of reasons: At any one time I can only produce a max of about 6 oz.
Actually, the physical size of your boobs doesn't have much to do with how much you produce. There are lots of small-breasted women who produce a lot and lots of large-breasted women who don't. It's mostly genetic and some other variables thrown in (e.g. if there was a lot of BPA in your mom when you were in utero can affect it, we're finding out).


Keeping your pre-pregnancy/parenthood identity

Thu Jan 29 4:36 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

You don't have to post at all if you don't want to! But we're here to offer support if you do want to.

I have very little time sans baby anymore
This does get a little better over time, when they're a little more autonomous. Though I still long for the day when I can just freaking go to the bathroom all by myself. (I seriously spent like 20 minutes in the bathroom the other day while the hubby was watching the kid @ a birthday party, just for that reason. I mean how sad does that sound?)

I know he requires more alone time than I do, and I know he isn't getting any more than I am.
Any chance of arranging a tag-team schedule?


sleep humor

Fri Jan 23 7:13 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

Here's a really funny humor bit about sleep, but the same general idea can apply to pretty much any "advice" given to new parents.

"I bought all the top books on baby sleep and development. I read through them all, as well as several blogs and sleep websites. I gathered lots of advice:"

https://chimericalcapuchin.wordpress.co ... babybooks/


Why Pocket Diapers Are Better Than Disposables

Sun Jan 11 3:31 PM by Nancy Erick in Pregnancy & Parenting

Hi everyone

A Beautiful article by writer Kathryn McDowell recently I read liked to share with you

Why Pocket Diapers Are Better Than Disposables :


As a young parent, you've no doubt heard of pocket diapers. Perhaps a neighbor or a co-worker told you about them. Or it was your babysitter, who asked you to get them soon. Well, so many families in America are today turning to pocket diapers for their little ones. But a majority still holds on to disposable diapers, while being curious about pocket diapers at the same time.

Why are diapers so great? For a start, pocket diapers come with brand new fabrics and super absorbent pads, are easy to put on, simple to take off, easy to wash and quick to dry. And they are better than disposable diapers.

They are Cheaper
Until your child is potty trained, you'd probably spend something close to $2500 to $3000 on diapers - which is quite a lot. Biodegradable disposable diapers are even costlier. But with pocket ones, you won't have to spend anything more than $350 to $400, till your child is potty trained.


10 things you can leave off the baby registry

Sat Feb 28 7:48 AM by Gnarlbanya in Pregnancy & Parenting

I really want one of those baby boxes and would jump at it if not for $69.95 shipping. Will keep thinking about it, I suspect my resolve will crumble eventually.


Bonding

Fri Feb 6 4:35 AM by Zeph in Pregnancy & Parenting

Bonding with my future infant is a concern of mine, because my depression is debilitating. I'm relieved to know that normally functioning women don't feel that head-over-heels mushy baby love.


name trends

Wed Jan 28 8:58 AM by Lemon in Pregnancy & Parenting

Some of my family members who work in the healthcare system have overheard some doozies.

I work in healthcare, so I can relate. I think my favourite was a kid called "Abcde" which we were assured was pronounced "Abasidee". Mirena was a cute choice, named after the contraceptive device. Then there have been some good narrative names including places of birth - e.g. "Shell" (after the baby born in a petrol station carpark) - and places of conception - e.g. "...(a suburb which I'll keep secret - just in case this somehow breaches some poor kid's privacy) bus stop."


It takes 13 million calories to raise a child!

Wed Jan 21 4:32 AM by textualorientation in Pregnancy & Parenting

Recently found out how much energy it takes to raise a child. Woah.

I'm pretty infuriated that in Canada it can cost $1,676/month for daycare, when science actually tells us we evolved to help each other raise children. I wrote a blog about this in case anyone is interested! I would really like to see this change for mothers all over Canada.

https://textualorientation.wordpress.co ... ledaycare/


some quotes recently I read

Sat Jan 10 4:50 PM by Nancy Erick in Pregnancy & Parenting

i search about these quotes in google


How did you decide how many kids to have?

Fri Feb 27 2:42 AM by MFS in Pregnancy & Parenting

First 2 were on purpose, 3rd kinda not so much, 4th was totally an oops (when you think things are broken, they have this habit of fixing themselves). Made sure we were done after that. Aside from that, we knew we'd have at least 2, likely 3, but the timing was not at all what we thought we were "planning". Such is life.


Because judging other parents is absurd.

Tue Feb 3 7:05 AM by Zeph in Pregnancy & Parenting

It's alright to discuss these topics, but there needs to be boundaries. I would use the following, personally:

1. Don't insert yourself into a stranger's situation or bring up the topic yourself to a stranger.
2. It's probably not your business if you're not a parent yourself.
3. Ask the person why they are making these choices, don't assume.
4. Try to end on a positive note.

I don't feel right bringing up to my sister that I don't agree that she spanks my nephew, but after being a teacher, I am pretty forgiving of parents' choices. It's the hardest role there is. Even though I want to raise my children on nutritious meals, cloth diapers, and museum passes, I know I'm going to slip up and give them fries, Huggies, and Disney DVD's.

I also feel that home birth is a fine option for low-risk births, where the mother is well coached and the midwife is reputable. If you live near a hospital and your midwife is highly qualified, why not? They have equipment. I won't be choosing this option, but with any birth plan there needs to be a series of precautions taken.


34 Weeks

Fri Jan 23 11:57 PM by Sonic# in Pregnancy & Parenting

Probably not. As we pointed out in the other topic, 34 weeks isn't even on the chart because it's so rare:
http://spacefem.com/pregnant/charts/duedate1.php

You'd be better off worrying over a car accident.


Work

Thu Jan 15 9:17 PM by bigdaddy in Pregnancy & Parenting

I will do cheers but in people's experiences and options I should be ok


Working as due date approaches

Mon Jan 5 6:18 AM by Bork in Pregnancy & Parenting

However long you end up staying at work, once you're in labor, PLEASE GO HOME. Or to the hospital. Because staying at work while you're in labor is hella awkward for everyone involved.