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Probability of delivery resulting from spontaneous labor after 38 weeks

[ Survey Results Intro | All Charts | Take the survey ]

The most important question I was trying to answer with the survey was this: "When is a baby most likely to spontaneously show up?" The graph above shows the percentages, based on 7436 responses. 5602 of the deliveries were as a result of labor occuring spontaneously. The chart only shows these deliveries, which is why the percentages do not add up to 100%, because only 75% of participants had spontaneous (non-induced) labor.

This page shows what day you'll likely give birth, if you're still pregnant at 38 weeks. To find out how week 38 compares to the other weeks overall or to find out the probability of delivery at 38 weeks, refer to the Length of pregnancy by week chart.

The statistics right now are as follows:

Data Table

The percentages are based on ALL births (including inductions)
DayWeekBirths Running TotalPercentRunning Total %
26638W,0D94941.3 % 1.3 %
26738W,1D911851.2 % 2.5 %
26838W,2D882731.2 % 3.7 %
26938W,3D1243971.7 % 5.3 %
27038W,4D1605572.2 % 7.5 %
27138W,5D1447011.9 % 9.4 %
27238W,6D1768772.4 % 11.8 %
27339W,0D19410712.6 % 14.4 %
27439W,1D17412452.3 % 16.7 %
27539W,2D19114362.6 % 19.3 %
27639W,3D23716733.2 % 22.5 %
27739W,4D25819313.5 % 26 %
27839W,5D25921903.5 % 29.5 %
27939W,6D30224924.1 % 33.5 %
28040W,0D32628184.4 % 37.9 %
28140W,1D31431324.2 % 42.1 %
28240W,2D28034123.8 % 45.9 %
28340W,3D27236843.7 % 49.5 %
28440W,4D24539293.3 % 52.8 %
28540W,5D26141903.5 % 56.3 %
28640W,6D25944493.5 % 59.8 %
28741W,0D26547143.6 % 63.4 %
28841W,1D17848922.4 % 65.8 %
28941W,2D15050422 % 67.8 %
29041W,3D15751992.1 % 69.9 %
29141W,4D11553141.5 % 71.5 %
29241W,5D8453981.1 % 72.6 %
29341W,6D6854660.9 % 73.5 %
29442W,0D5655220.8 % 74.3 %
29542W,1D2155430.3 % 74.5 %
29642W,2D2155640.3 % 74.8 %
29742W,3D1255760.2 % 75 %
29842W,4D955850.1 % 75.1 %
29942W,5D655910.1 % 75.2 %
30042W,6D255930 % 75.2 %
30143W,0D956020.1 % 75.3 %

Due Date Survey Data

Due date statistics: A study on the length of pregnancy
Probability of delivery resulting from spontaneous labor after 38 weeks
Probability of delivery within x days of a given date
Length of pregnancy by week
Spontaneous labor and due date determination
Length of pregnancy, comparing subsequent births for individual moms
Length of pregnancy for first time vs. second & third time moms
Length of pregnancy, type of delivery
Gestation vs. Birthweight
Probablity of Induction after a given day
Average day of spontaneous labor vs. age of mother at time of birth
Are more babies born during a full moon?
What's the most common day of the week for babies to be born?
I'm still pregnant at 40W. What's it mean?
Do winter babies arrive later?
What if I know my conception date?
Are boys or girls born later?
Subsequent pregnancy date search
How do inductions bias the due date statistics?
Birth Stories
Survey input dates

More Resources

Pregnancy Day-by-Day
Fast pregnancy calendar
Baby age calendar
EDD Icon Generator
Jo's Birth Story
Weeks vs. Months Explained
Charts generated by flot
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Recent Comments

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you are invited to join our pregnancy forum. We are dedicated to answering complicated questions as logically as we possibly can.

Advice for non-parents?

Sat Apr 25 8:11 AM by Vanessa18 in Pregnancy & Parenting

Thatís really weird! I havenít heard anything like this before. Well guys, one of my friends need to have an infertility treatment. She has been looking for best hospital for that. I wonder if you know any hospitals where celebrity infertility treatments have also been done!


Bilingual Babies

Mon Apr 13 11:41 AM by sakooon in Pregnancy & Parenting

Spacefem's husband no longer speaking Spanish and Nachos no longer speaking Dutch, I think are great examples of lacking motivation. Likewise, I had mentioned that my kid is unlikely to pick up Swedish, despite 10% of the population being native Swedish speakers, Swedish being one of the offical languages and therefore alongside Finnish everywhere, and having a Swedish speaking uncle.???


Interacting with parents whose choices you don't trust

Thu Mar 26 3:08 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

How can you tell who has been vaccinated or not?
That's the tricky part, you can't really. So unless the parents say something you never actually know.


How did you decide how many kids to have?

Fri Feb 27 2:42 AM by MFS in Pregnancy & Parenting

First 2 were on purpose, 3rd kinda not so much, 4th was totally an oops (when you think things are broken, they have this habit of fixing themselves). Made sure we were done after that. Aside from that, we knew we'd have at least 2, likely 3, but the timing was not at all what we thought we were "planning". Such is life.


name trends

Wed Jan 28 8:58 AM by Lemon in Pregnancy & Parenting

Some of my family members who work in the healthcare system have overheard some doozies.

I work in healthcare, so I can relate. I think my favourite was a kid called "Abcde" which we were assured was pronounced "Abasidee". Mirena was a cute choice, named after the contraceptive device. Then there have been some good narrative names including places of birth - e.g. "Shell" (after the baby born in a petrol station carpark) - and places of conception - e.g. "...(a suburb which I'll keep secret - just in case this somehow breaches some poor kid's privacy) bus stop."


the worst first birthday invite ever

Tue Apr 21 9:16 PM by Aum in Pregnancy & Parenting

Do we know the target audience for the birthday invite? Is it a privileged community? Because I could see clusters of families acting this way. You know, the gated community types. Obviously these people come from a place of entitlement and privilege... but I've seen worse. Maybe it's their first kid too and they walked into every gaff possible. Some people are oblivious like that. Seems like their materialistic practicality trumped even proper manners.


The responsibility of choosing a name

Wed Apr 8 11:32 PM by Cķglas in Pregnancy & Parenting

Spouse and I have two main rules: family name and not Biblical. Fortunately we have big families with lots of cool names available.

I have the additional stipulations of not having two people in the same house with the same name (i.e. Jr.) and that really unusual names should be middle names. Spouse's family has the tradition of naming the first son after the father, but since Spouse has a super-Biblical name I've not had to fight too hard to keep him from naming his son after himself. I was named after my dad's mom so we had the same first and last name in the same town and that caused some problems (which, admittedly, were quickly solved by our 70-year difference in ages). But I can't imagine having two "Spouse"s at one address.

Spouse's family has quite a few Anglicized Polish names, and Spouse wants to revive the pre-immigration names, which I'm fine with but would prefer them as middle names: Cunegunda and Waslav are a lifetime of "What? How do you spell that? Where is that from? Did your parents make that up?" If the kid really wants to use it, which would be cool, they can always choose to use their middle name.


How Good Parents Miss Child Sexual Abuse and 5 Questions to Change That

Tue Mar 24 3:20 AM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

And that includes parents too - I try to always ask "can I have a hug/kiss" rather than "give me a hug/kiss" and that she can always always say no if she doesn't want to, even with me. (She's old enough now that I've had enough practice that even writing "give me a hug" sounds weird to me)

Also I think on a more general level it's good to practice asking these kinds of questions anyway. Not just for abuse, but in general if you want to know what's going on in their life. Asking "how was school" gets an "I dunno" even now, but asking more specific things like "What was something funny that happened today" or "What did you do at recess?" really gets her talking more. Not sure where I read that, but the kinds of questions above made me think that sometimes just asking a better question will help get at what you want to know more than asking generalities.

The other thing is definitely definitely not making judgment on those things that they're saying. Instead try "What did you think about that ?" or "What did you do when happened?" "What would make you feel safe?" "What could you try if that happens again?" "Is there anything you'd like me to do?" These are things that I've asked wrt other kids on the playground (pushing etc) but I think it's the same idea in terms of empowering the child to talk about things that happen and letting them help come to the conclusions. Which isn't to say you can't help them get there by suggesting actions they could do, etc, just that if you get them talking about things that happen on a daily basis then if something weird happens then they'll likely be more comfortable telling you, especially if you've already shown them what boundaries there are and respecting those boundaries (like not tickling if they say they don't want to be tickled etc).


Bonding

Fri Feb 6 4:35 AM by Zeph in Pregnancy & Parenting

Bonding with my future infant is a concern of mine, because my depression is debilitating. I'm relieved to know that normally functioning women don't feel that head-over-heels mushy baby love.


34 Weeks

Fri Jan 23 11:57 PM by Sonic# in Pregnancy & Parenting

Probably not. As we pointed out in the other topic, 34 weeks isn't even on the chart because it's so rare:
http://spacefem.com/pregnant/charts/duedate1.php

You'd be better off worrying over a car accident.


Can't find my tribe

Sun Apr 19 10:48 PM by lovernotafighter in Pregnancy & Parenting

Love the meme above. I unfortunately am not a mom yet, but I see it all the time and want to scream. I hope you find some other people out there in whom you can confide and share time with, and I would suggest not being a stranger here as well! :)


Tips and pitfalls for gender-neutral parenting

Mon Mar 30 9:25 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

^I agree with that! :)

Part of "gender neutral" parenting is supplying the side of things that doesn't get given by other people.


It takes 13 million calories to raise a child!

Sun Mar 15 6:33 PM by Metcodon1 in Pregnancy & Parenting

Child care is BEYOND insanely expensive... When my husband and I were deciding to to have children we agreed to both go part time (4 days a week) in order to make our lives easier (we both make more than we would pay for day care, so we did take a financial hit with this decision). For example, whoever is home on a given day can throw in some laundry, or some food into the slow cooker, run errands... All of these things multiply in number once you have kids at the same time becoming more difficult to schedule. Unfortunately, when my daughter was around 1 my work situation changed and I had to go full time... let me tell you, it was definitely easier when I wasn't.

Anyway, the point I am getting to here is, when kids are little they require a lot of attention and sometimes (often?) some career sacrifice but it's TEMPORARY. When we decided to get pregnant we agreed that we would both slow down career wise for 5 years. For us it means, we do our jobs, we come home. We don't sign up for extra projects, we try to limit our travel, but it's all just for now. We also decided to have our kids close together for that reason (they'll be 2 years apart). Anyway, it's something to keep in mind. An 8 year old goes to school and doesn't need constant monitoring to keep from killing him/herself. It's ok to decide to slow down for a period of time, knowing that you'll come roaring back once they're older.


Because judging other parents is absurd.

Tue Feb 3 7:05 AM by Zeph in Pregnancy & Parenting

It's alright to discuss these topics, but there needs to be boundaries. I would use the following, personally:

1. Don't insert yourself into a stranger's situation or bring up the topic yourself to a stranger.
2. It's probably not your business if you're not a parent yourself.
3. Ask the person why they are making these choices, don't assume.
4. Try to end on a positive note.

I don't feel right bringing up to my sister that I don't agree that she spanks my nephew, but after being a teacher, I am pretty forgiving of parents' choices. It's the hardest role there is. Even though I want to raise my children on nutritious meals, cloth diapers, and museum passes, I know I'm going to slip up and give them fries, Huggies, and Disney DVD's.

I also feel that home birth is a fine option for low-risk births, where the mother is well coached and the midwife is reputable. If you live near a hospital and your midwife is highly qualified, why not? They have equipment. I won't be choosing this option, but with any birth plan there needs to be a series of precautions taken.


sleep humor

Fri Jan 23 7:13 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

Here's a really funny humor bit about sleep, but the same general idea can apply to pretty much any "advice" given to new parents.

"I bought all the top books on baby sleep and development. I read through them all, as well as several blogs and sleep websites. I gathered lots of advice:"

https://chimericalcapuchin.wordpress.co ... babybooks/