Probablity of Induction after a given day

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Induction odds by day

Here's the big question this graph is trying to answer:

The western world likes to induce babies rather than let them go too late, doesn't this skew your results by removing late babies from the "late" end of the spectrum where they should be?

I don't think so. This survey contained 2836 births resulting from inductions (out of 12099 total). Only 7% (208) of the inductions were at or past 42 weeks, 0 D. By that time, 96.7% of all spontenous labors have already happened. At 41 weeks 0 days, 9503/12099 (78.5%) of spontaneous labors had already happened. But only 953 inductions happened after that date.

There's a study that suggests the average first time mom goes into labor 8 days past her due date. Even though the study is 20 years old, the notion of moving everyone's due date to 41W1D has not caught on. Why not?

The survey results show that there were 6560 spontaneous labors before 41 weeks and 2703 spontaneous labors after 41 weeks. If all 953 inductions were added to that "spontaneous" count, that'd mean there were 3656 babies born after 41 weeks... not enough to tip the scales. What if all the inductions after 40 weeks (1633) were actually supposed to be spontaneous labors after 41 weeks? That'd mean 4336 babies would be born after 41 weeks. Remember, we'd need at least 6560 to happen spontaneously after 41 weeks to match the ones that spontaneously happened before 41 weeks; a median means that half happen before, half after. It'd be tough for the median to move a whole 7 or 8 days. It all tells me that reducing inductions will not shift the median to the right a whole lot.

I've also added a table here that shows how the median would shift if ALL inductions, not just the later ones, were actually supposed to be "late" births.

Does the data change for first time mothers?

I've received a lot of questions about whether these statistics shift for first time mothers. You can click here to exclude all non first-time moms

Induction odds by day

DayTotal pregnancies remainingHow many will end in induction
#% #%
245 12099 100 2836 23.4
246 12076 99.8 2829 23.4
247 12055 99.6 2828 23.5
248 12039 99.5 2826 23.5
249 12010 99.3 2819 23.5
250 11978 99 2807 23.4
251 11948 98.8 2800 23.4
252 11926 98.6 2799 23.5
253 11873 98.1 2781 23.4
254 11839 97.9 2773 23.4
255 11792 97.5 2763 23.4
256 11747 97.1 2757 23.5
257 11705 96.7 2748 23.5
258 11657 96.3 2739 23.5
259 11598 95.9 2724 23.5
260 11489 95 2685 23.4
261 11401 94.2 2662 23.3
262 11311 93.5 2636 23.3
263 11212 92.7 2619 23.4
264 11097 91.7 2599 23.4
265 10992 90.9 2578 23.5
266 10846 89.6 2556 23.6
267 10660 88.1 2510 23.5
268 10491 86.7 2465 23.5
269 10313 85.2 2419 23.5
270 10103 83.5 2385 23.6
271 9847 81.4 2345 23.8
272 9613 79.5 2298 23.9
273 9316 77 2233 24
274 8909 73.6 2116 23.8
275 8549 70.7 2009 23.5
276 8197 67.7 1936 23.6
277 7760 64.1 1839 23.7
278 7325 60.5 1767 24.1
279 6893 57 1696 24.6
280 6409 53 1633 25.5
281 5460 45.1 1487 27.2
282 4917 40.6 1414 28.8
283 4437 36.7 1328 29.9
284 3970 32.8 1239 31.2
285 3521 29.1 1141 32.4
286 3077 25.4 1060 34.4
287 2596 21.5 953 36.7
288 2084 17.2 804 38.6
289 1682 13.9 680 40.4
290 1360 11.2 577 42.4
291 1023 8.5 453 44.3
292 777 6.4 360 46.3
293 576 4.8 277 48.1
294 405 3.3 208 51.4
295 250 2.1 128 51.2
296 162 1.3 69 42.6
297 106 0.9 40 37.7
298 65 0.5 23 35.4
299 46 0.4 16 34.8
300 29 0.2 9 31

Due Date Survey Data

Due date statistics: A study on the length of pregnancy
Probability of delivery resulting from spontaneous labor after 35 weeks
Probability of delivery within x days of a given date
Length of pregnancy by week
Spontaneous labor and due date determination
Length of pregnancy, comparing subsequent births for individual moms
Length of pregnancy for first time vs. second & third time moms
Length of pregnancy, type of delivery
Gestation vs. Birthweight
Probablity of Induction after a given day
Average day of spontaneous labor vs. age of mother at time of birth
Are more babies born during a full moon?
What's the most common day of the week for babies to be born?
I'm still pregnant at 40W. What's it mean?
Do winter babies arrive later?
What if I know my conception date?
Are boys or girls born later?
Subsequent pregnancy date search
How do inductions bias the due date statistics?
Birth Stories
Survey input dates

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Recent Comments

For more support, encouragement, Q&A,
you are invited to join our pregnancy forum. We are dedicated to answering complicated questions as logically as we possibly can.

stuffed animals

Thu Feb 23 1:20 AM by antfancier in Pregnancy & Parenting

My brother's favorite stuffed animal was a thing we called 'gerbil'. I actually don't know what it was because we found it in the street (not sure what my mum was thinking in allowing him to pick it up, let alone keep it) and it had already lost an eye and was unidentifiable, but he became really attached to it. We almost missed a flight once because he dropped it in the airport and we had to go back to look for it.

Today for the first time my 11month old showed interest in a stuffed animal. Just before Christmas we received a box from Amazon with a giant bear inside. No gift wrap, no note. Just a bear the size of my child. It's been sat in his room and ignored completely, despite him exploring literally everything else that is in there. Then, out of the blue, he made a beeline for it and tried to pull its eyes out.


Activities for 1-3 yo's

Sat Jan 14 7:07 PM by antfancier in Pregnancy & Parenting

I find theimaginationtree.com has lots of inspiring ideas. Some look like they take quite a bit of prep, but if you're doing it for a whole class then it might be worth it. You can sort activities by age as well so it's easier to search.


Academic redshirting

Wed Dec 7 8:22 PM by Nachos in Pregnancy & Parenting

I'm on the fence about this. I was always the youngest in my class because I was born 2 days before the cut off. I started school JUST after my 5th birthday (Go England.... not...) and this made a huge gap between me and the oldest kids in the class who were almost a whole year older. However, even though I might have struggled more then I'm ok now, you know? It might have even been helpful for me, pushing myself to learn more and try and be smarter. My sister was held back for a year in preschool in Germany because she didn't speak German well enough for the first grade and so she has always been the oldest in class and she's not really as academic as me. This is all anecdata of course, but interesting to ponder over.


kids' obsessions

Sat Oct 15 8:08 PM by melsbells in Pregnancy & Parenting

I could see saunas becoming an obsession for a number of very social reasons as well, depending on your family's sauna practices. I honestly can't think of any common themes or rituals shared by all branches of my U.S. family, other than like eating together, but that seems too banal(/essential for survival) to really become an obsession. My Finnish family, on the other hand, all sauna as a social ritual. Whether or not you allow your kid in saunas yet, if there's a lot of exposure to the ritual, they could probably pick up on the social importance. It might make sense that kids are probably wired to pick up on things that the adults in their life think are important (**not a child psychologist**).
<...> I know I was super into the instant evaporation of water and associated *hissssss* the first time I was in a sauna at like age seven.
This is an excellent point. And although I know they exist, I haven't encountered any Finns who don't like sauna. There are a lot of steps to it. The kid gets to help their grandfather build the fire when we're together, knows that wood burning saunas are better than electric saunas, and absolutely loves the sound of the water hitting the hot stones. I can't imitate the sound as well as the kid does.


Don't give your kids antidepressants.

Thu Sep 15 9:13 PM by Nachos in Pregnancy & Parenting

Mental health issues will never start to hurt, therefore no preemptive treatment is needed.

Mental health issues hurt, take it from me. There are many psychosomatic disorders out there which affect your body even though the real problem is in your mind. But to get better, you HAVE to treat both. Pre-emptive treatment also can stop some disorders from becoming too bad. And yes, sometimes drugs can be very very helpful.

I don't think you know what you're talking about and all this "I know because of divine intuition" bullshit is starting to piss me off. if you ask others for sources, be kind enough to provide some yourself.

If this thread continues to be shit-slinging, I will lock it.


What did I just say?

Wed Feb 22 6:42 PM by melsbells in Pregnancy & Parenting

Ah, these are great.

Recently, I've been caught off guard by some of the threats and bribes I've been using. "If you don't stop jumping on Father now, I'm going to take your towel off my head" or "I can tell you more about if you "


tactile stuff

Wed Jan 4 6:14 AM by Neko in Pregnancy & Parenting

All the pliable/crafty stuff I can think of has been mentioned. ETA: I lied. Bread dough!

But if generally tactile surfaces also apply, mermaid sequin pillows are comforting. It was one of my impulse buys at a department store about a month ago. I couldn't stop petting the display. The sequined side seemed like it wouldn't be comfortable to rest on but it hasn't been an issue. My stepdad really likes them so I got him one for giftmas and he said it helps distract him when chronic pain keeps him awake at night. https://www.etsy.com/listing/470423508/ ... _active_40

I haven't field tested them on my nieces and nephews yet. That could be fun.


protective restrictions for children

Tue Dec 6 10:08 PM by melsbells in Pregnancy & Parenting

The Wolfpack, a documentary about six bright teenage brothers have spent their entire lives locked away from society in a manhattan housing project. all they know of the outside is gleaned from the movies they watch obsessively (and recreate meticulously). yet as adolescence looms, they dream of escape, ever more urgently, into the beckoning world. The film is coming from the bias that the parents have wronged their children. We're told that in the past they have left the apartment, only as a group, and up to eight times a year. One year they didn't get out at all. It's unclear what the objective of these outings were. The film leaves a lot unanswered. We know they are homeschooled by their mother, who's a certified teacher, but what the homeschooling looked like is never examined. I can't help but think that these kids all around really healthy, charming, affectionate, considerate, welcoming, really only positive adjectives come to mind.


Sleep Training for Parents and Infants

Sat Oct 1 9:34 PM by antfancier in Pregnancy & Parenting

Thank you! I'm currently stuck under 20lbs of sleeping baby because all day time naps have to be in my arms or they don't happen.


learning to use a toilet

Sun Sep 11 2:33 PM by Angelica in Pregnancy & Parenting

My statement was meant to indicate that I'm not finished with my thoughts on this topic, rather than to create drama.

I believe parents in this world universally make a big mistake when it comes time to start thinking about their children using the toilet. Kids feel forced to do it, and this breeds resentment and damages their self-esteem. Having the father (the mother is needed in the battle against the patriarchy) stay home with the children and homeschool them while they haven't yet decided to train themselves is the way to avoid humiliation by their more-repressed peers.

I would also like to point out that limiting elimination to the toilet at any age creates situations where the person's health is compromised due to the lack of availability of a bathroom. In these situations, I strongly advise parents to let their children wear diapers no matter their age. Retention can lead to kidney stones, intestinal damage, urinary tract infections and harmful bacteria and toxins in the bloodstream.


New parent help/suggestions

Sat Jan 14 10:07 PM by antfancier in Pregnancy & Parenting

I agree with everything lyra211 said and will add a few more.

Things you don't need:
Anything soft, fluffy or furry. My baby couldn't care less about minky blankets and soft toys. Plus they seem more gross to clean when they get covered in bodily fluids.
Clothes that look like adult clothes. It's so difficult to squeeze baby thighs into miniature corduroys or denim jeans which have no give to the fabric.
Baby washcloths. Babies make a disproportionate amount of mess so you need adult size washcloths to clean them up.

Things that were super useful:
A folding changing mat. I have a SkipHop one which has enough storage for wipes and diapers, which was all I needed to carry with me when I had a newborn. Now that he's bigger, I appreciate the larger size of the mat because the one that came with my diaper bag is way too small.
Balls. They were the first thing he played with and still his favourite toys. At the beginning he liked one made by Oball which was easy to pick up, and a soft fabric one which made a crinkly noise. Now he loves throwing a soft rubber ball and watching it bounce.


development balalnce

Fri Dec 16 5:02 PM by rinn in Pregnancy & Parenting

I was proficient in fine/gross motor skills and cognitive development for my age, but I was further behind in speech/language development and social/emotional development. I caught up in them perhaps by ages 5-7, with vestiges of social issues lasting longer (like my temper). There was nothing inherently bad about being a bit off in timing, though in my case my imbalance was severe enough that I did need professional help from a speech pathologist.

....New social situations make me feel somewhat awkward, but I've also learned that many other people feel the same way about novel contexts, so I think I'm with the curve there.

geez, are you my twin, sonic? XD

I grew up with definite lag in speech/language development. I had a speech pathologist in elementary school work on my -L-'s, -r-'s and -th-'s; and when I essentially "graduated" from it I was taken out of the IEP program. my mom and I now see that being a mistake. middle school went decently, but I struggled in language arts; and by the time I went into high school I was struggling in my history/English humanities course and Algebra. I struggled in English classes because of my inability to express myself through language clearly, and I struggled in algebra because I couldn't follow a thing my teacher was saying (we had someone tutor me who literally asked why she was tutoring me because I grasped the concepts five minutes after her explaining it).


Parents Warned they Could Lose Custody of Fourteen-Year-Old Over This

Mon Nov 7 3:33 AM by garbage videos in Pregnancy & Parenting

It is wrong to lock horses in cages and breed them as if they are slaves.
I sincerely hope that you aren't condoning slavery with that implication that it isn't wrong to keep humans in cages and force them to "breed". It's probably just an unfortunate word choice.
I said it is wrong to put horses in cages and breed them as slaves. So I don't know how you read things. Frankly you are irritating me because I shouldn't have to explain how I said 2+2=4 when you are accusing me of saying 2+2=5. In this age people should have mastered how to read clearly and I shouldn't have to micromanage my text and clear what I have already layed out clearly for you.

To be fair, if the girl is a Female to Male transsexual, her hormones are not so important, at an old age Male hormones will mutate her body and have the same effect. But with boy's its more tragic and serious. Boys who want to be girls, must stop their toxic T at an early age, or else their face will be permanently ugly and bony


bringing children up naturist

Sat Sep 24 1:18 AM by filmmakingally in Pregnancy & Parenting

It's about teaching children to make love so that they do it themselves. Love has no age or genetic requirement. It's healthy for young siblings to make love, and it's unhealthy if they don't. Sexual repression of children fucks them up as adults. Because the parents are secretive about it, children get the idea that it's bad, which starts the process of sexual repression.

Gross. Yuck. Eww. I've run out of ways to express how disgusted I am with what you've said here. Ewwwwwww!!!!!!!

No, siblings should not make love. It is in our genetic interest that we don't do this. Ever. This is a cultural universal.


Middle grade / Beginning Chapter Books

Fri Sep 9 8:01 PM by melsbells in Pregnancy & Parenting

I think a big driver in getting them to read is to find stories that they like.
Definitely this. I once tutored a kid who had been held back twice in elementary school and was still a couple grade levels behind on reading skills. He was given a book from the Captain Underpants series because it was supposed to be at his reading level but he thought it was utterly stupid. I don't think we ever found books that both matched his reading level and maturity level, but once we started reading books better suited to his interests, it didn't matter that they were more difficult.

One of my cousins kids read the Warriors series and was really into it. She was bulllied in school, but I don't think it was instigated by her reading choices.

I don't know any recent books for this age group but I've heard great things about the Adventure Time comics.