This table attempts to estimate your probability of going into labor on different individual days based on your estimated due date. If you don't know your due date, or just want a handy daily page to tell you where you're at, use the pregnancy calendar.
It's based on the idea that the average pregnancy lasts 40 weeks with a standard deviation of about 10 days. This means you're more likely to go into labor on one of the days close to your due date. For instance, about half of all babies are born within a week of their date. Scroll to the bottom of this page if you want to know more about where I got these numbers.
The following dates are based on an estimated due date of February 1st, 2015.
|Date||Progress||Overall probability of
|Current probability of
|probability of a pregnant woman at this stage going into labor|
|On this date||By this date||On this date||By this date||On this date||Within 3 days||Within 5 days||Within 7 days|
|Sunday December 28th, 2014||35W, 0D||0.01%||0.02%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.1%||0.2%|
|Monday December 29th, 2014||35W, 1D||0.01%||0.03%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.2%||0.3%|
|Tuesday December 30th, 2014||35W, 2D||0.02%||0.05%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.2%||0.4%|
|Wednesday December 31st, 2014||35W, 3D||0.02%||0.07%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.3%||0.6%|
|Thursday January 1st, 2015||35W, 4D||0.03%||0.1%||-%||-%||-%||0.2%||0.4%||0.7%|
|Friday January 2nd, 2015||35W, 5D||0.04%||0.13%||-%||-%||-%||0.2%||0.5%||0.9%|
|Saturday January 3rd, 2015||35W, 6D||0.06%||0.19%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.3%||0.6%||1.2%|
|Sunday January 4th, 2015||36W, 0D||0.08%||0.26%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.4%||0.8%||1.5%|
|Monday January 5th, 2015||36W, 1D||0.1%||0.35%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.5%||1%||1.9%|
|Tuesday January 6th, 2015||36W, 2D||0.14%||0.47%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.6%||1.3%||2.4%|
|Wednesday January 7th, 2015||36W, 3D||0.18%||0.62%||-%||-%||0.2%||0.8%||1.7%||3%|
|Thursday January 8th, 2015||36W, 4D||0.22%||0.82%||-%||-%||0.2%||1%||2.1%||3.7%|
|Friday January 9th, 2015||36W, 5D||0.28%||1.07%||-%||-%||0.3%||1.2%||2.5%||4.5%|
|Saturday January 10th, 2015||36W, 6D||0.35%||1.39%||-%||-%||0.4%||1.5%||3.1%||5.4%|
|Sunday January 11th, 2015||37W, 0D||0.44%||1.79%||-%||-%||0.4%||1.8%||3.8%||6.4%|
|Monday January 12th, 2015||37W, 1D||0.54%||2.28%||-%||-%||0.6%||2.2%||4.5%||7.6%|
|Tuesday January 13th, 2015||37W, 2D||0.66%||2.87%||-%||-%||0.7%||2.7%||5.4%||8.9%|
|Wednesday January 14th, 2015||37W, 3D||0.79%||3.59%||-%||-%||0.8%||3.2%||6.3%||10.4%|
|Thursday January 15th, 2015||37W, 4D||0.94%||4.46%||-%||-%||1%||3.8%||7.4%||11.9%|
|Friday January 16th, 2015||37W, 5D||1.11%||5.48%||-%||-%||1.2%||4.4%||8.6%||13.7%|
|Saturday January 17th, 2015||37W, 6D||1.3%||6.68%||-%||-%||1.4%||5.2%||9.8%||15.5%|
|Sunday January 18th, 2015||38W, 0D||1.5%||8.08%||-%||-%||1.6%||6%||11.2%||17.5%|
|Monday January 19th, 2015||38W, 1D||1.71%||9.68%||-%||-%||1.9%||6.9%||12.7%||19.7%|
|Tuesday January 20th, 2015||38W, 2D||1.94%||11.51%||-%||-%||2.2%||7.8%||14.3%||21.9%|
|Wednesday January 21st, 2015||38W, 3D||2.18%||13.57%||-%||-%||2.5%||8.8%||16%||24.2%|
|Thursday January 22nd, 2015||38W, 4D||2.42%||15.87%||-%||-%||2.9%||9.9%||17.8%||26.6%|
|Friday January 23rd, 2015||38W, 5D||2.66%||18.41%||-%||-%||3.3%||11.1%||19.7%||29%|
|Saturday January 24th, 2015||38W, 6D||2.9%||21.19%||-%||-%||3.7%||12.3%||21.6%||31.5%|
|Sunday January 25th, 2015||39W, 0D||3.12%||24.2%||-%||-%||4.1%||13.5%||23.6%||34%|
|Monday January 26th, 2015||39W, 1D||3.33%||27.43%||-%||-%||4.6%||14.9%||25.6%||36.6%|
|Tuesday January 27th, 2015||39W, 2D||3.52%||30.85%||-%||-%||5.1%||16.2%||27.7%||39.2%|
|Wednesday January 28th, 2015||39W, 3D||3.68%||34.46%||-%||-%||5.6%||17.6%||29.8%||41.7%|
|Thursday January 29th, 2015||39W, 4D||3.81%||38.21%||-%||-%||6.2%||19.1%||31.9%||44.2%|
|Friday January 30th, 2015||39W, 5D||3.91%||42.07%||-%||-%||6.7%||20.6%||34%||46.7%|
|Saturday January 31st, 2015||39W, 6D||3.97%||46.02%||-%||-%||7.4%||22.1%||36.2%||49.2%|
|Sunday February 1st, 2015||40W, 0D||3.99%||50%||8%||0%||8%||23.6%||38.3%||51.6%|
|Monday February 2nd, 2015||40W, 1D||3.97%||53.98%||7.9%||8%||8.6%||25.1%||40.4%||54%|
|Tuesday February 3rd, 2015||40W, 2D||3.91%||57.93%||7.8%||15.9%||9.3%||26.7%||42.5%||56.2%|
|Wednesday February 4th, 2015||40W, 3D||3.81%||61.79%||7.6%||23.6%||10%||28.2%||44.5%||58.5%|
|Thursday February 5th, 2015||40W, 4D||3.68%||65.54%||7.4%||31.1%||10.7%||29.8%||46.6%||60.6%|
|Friday February 6th, 2015||40W, 5D||3.52%||69.15%||7%||38.3%||11.4%||31.3%||48.6%||62.7%|
|Saturday February 7th, 2015||40W, 6D||3.33%||72.57%||6.7%||45.1%||12.1%||32.9%||50.5%||64.7%|
|Sunday February 8th, 2015||41W, 0D||3.12%||75.8%||6.2%||51.6%||12.9%||34.4%||52.4%||66.6%|
|Monday February 9th, 2015||41W, 1D||2.9%||78.81%||5.8%||57.6%||13.7%||36%||54.3%||68.5%|
|Tuesday February 10th, 2015||41W, 2D||2.66%||81.59%||5.3%||63.2%||14.4%||37.5%||56.1%||70.2%|
|Wednesday February 11th, 2015||41W, 3D||2.42%||84.13%||4.8%||68.3%||15.2%||39%||57.9%||71.9%|
|Thursday February 12th, 2015||41W, 4D||2.18%||86.43%||4.4%||72.9%||16.1%||40.5%||59.6%||73.5%|
|Friday February 13th, 2015||41W, 5D||1.94%||88.49%||3.9%||77%||16.9%||42%||61.3%||75.1%|
|Saturday February 14th, 2015||41W, 6D||1.71%||90.32%||3.4%||80.6%||17.7%||43.4%||62.9%||76.4%|
|Sunday February 15th, 2015||42W, 0D||1.5%||91.92%||3%||83.8%||18.6%||44.8%||64.5%||77.8%|
|Monday February 16th, 2015||42W, 1D||1.3%||93.32%||2.6%||86.6%||19.5%||46.3%||65.9%||79.2%|
|Tuesday February 17th, 2015||42W, 2D||1.11%||94.52%||2.2%||89%||20.3%||47.6%||67.3%||80.5%|
|Wednesday February 18th, 2015||42W, 3D||0.94%||95.54%||1.9%||91.1%||21.1%||48.9%||68.8%||81.6%|
|Thursday February 19th, 2015||42W, 4D||0.79%||96.41%||1.6%||92.8%||22%||50.1%||70.2%||82.7%|
|Friday February 20th, 2015||42W, 5D||0.66%||97.13%||1.3%||94.3%||23%||51.6%||71.4%||83.6%|
|Saturday February 21st, 2015||42W, 6D||0.54%||97.72%||1.1%||95.4%||23.7%||53.1%||72.8%||84.6%|
|Sunday February 22nd, 2015||43W, 0D||0.44%||98.21%||0.9%||96.4%||24.6%||54.2%||73.7%||85.5%|
|Monday February 23rd, 2015||43W, 1D||0.35%||98.61%||0.7%||97.2%||25.2%||55.4%||74.8%||86.3%|
|Tuesday February 24th, 2015||43W, 2D||0.28%||98.93%||0.6%||97.9%||26.2%||56.1%||75.7%||87.9%|
|Wednesday February 25th, 2015||43W, 3D||0.22%||99.18%||0.4%||98.4%||26.8%||57.3%||76.8%||-%|
|Thursday February 26th, 2015||43W, 4D||0.18%||99.38%||0.4%||98.8%||29%||58.1%||79%||-%|
|Friday February 27th, 2015||43W, 5D||0.14%||99.53%||0.3%||99.1%||29.8%||59.6%||-%||-%|
|Saturday February 28th, 2015||43W, 6D||0.1%||99.65%||0.2%||99.3%||28.6%||62.9%||-%||-%|
|Sunday March 1st, 2015||44W, 0D||0.08%||99.74%||0.2%||99.5%||30.8%||-%||-%||-%|
|Monday March 2nd, 2015||44W, 1D||0.06%||99.81%||0.1%||99.6%||31.6%||-%||-%||-%|
|Tuesday March 3rd, 2015||44W, 2D||0.04%||99.87%||0.1%||99.7%||30.8%||-%||-%||-%|
All percentages are estimates based on mathematical averages and should not be taken terribly seriously... just because you only have 5% chance of going into labor two weeks early, that doesn't mean you should schedule a trip to the bahamas that weekend (see xkcd to get what I mean here).
You should (obviously) listen to your doctor or midwife on all matters related to pregnancy and childbirth. Just because this chart tells you that a 42W pregnant woman has a high chance of delivering in the next seven days, it doesn't mean it's healthy for her to be pregnant for seven more days. If your doctor wants to increase probability of delivery by inducing labor, there's probably a good reason.
Finding good distribution statistics on spontaneous labor is interesting. I have not found a study with an exact daily breakdown of when babies are born. However I have read way too much on this topic, so I can tell you that my favorite published research is The length of human pregnancy as calculated by ultrasonographic measurement of the fetal biparietal diameter (H. Kieler, O. Axelsson, S. Nilsson, U. WaldenstrÃ¶) which a very nice table of 10 published studies, which found various means between 272-283 days. The study contributes their own results as well, analyzing nearly 2000 mothers who went into labor spontaneously, and there's graphs of what they found. They found a mean around 280 days, and standard deviations between 8-11 days. There's a big list of other studies and answers in the Introduction to my due date survey results.
Which leads to this topic... I am also in the process of collecting my own statistics. If you have had a baby, please take my due date survey. Oddly enough, the numbers I've collected so far support my messy hunch that pregnancy length has a 40-week mean and 9-10 day standard deviation. So go me.
Anyway if you have better research, drop me an e-mail (firstname.lastname@example.org).
Charts are generated by flot.
Omg hilarious and so well done, thanks for writing that Spacefem! The part about diaper baskets made me lmao
What's crazysauce and obviously wrong to you might easily just be someone else's "personal choice" that they say you have "no right to judge".
Just thinking of our own personal opinions on what's crazysauce and what's personal choice, I think we'd find a lot of conflict. For example, I think corporal punishment is going too far. It's also grounds for having one's kids taken away where I currently live. However, I know my parents don't feel the same way. I take it that the line of appropriate physical punishment is very different for people throughout the U.S. based on reactions this past year to NFL players phsyically repremanding their kids.
I also know that some others think I'm depriving my kid with some choices that my spouse and I make, such as diet or not getting our kid baptized.
The point is, people often assume that there is a universal RIGHT WAY FOR ALL no matter what, when of course for MOST things there is some gray area. I agree we shouldn't paper over serious discussions and tell women to stop voicing their opinions, but I think everyone could benefit from a little kindness and empathy.
Here's a really funny humor bit about sleep, but the same general idea can apply to pretty much any "advice" given to new parents.
https://chimericalcapuchin.wordpress.co ... babybooks/
I will do cheers but in people's experiences and options I should be ok
You don't have to post at all if you don't want to! But we're here to offer support if you do want to.
This does get a little better over time, when they're a little more autonomous. Though I still long for the day when I can just freaking go to the bathroom all by myself. (I seriously spent like 20 minutes in the bathroom the other day while the hubby was watching the kid @ a birthday party, just for that reason. I mean how sad does that sound?)
Any chance of arranging a tag-team schedule?
Some of my family members who work in the healthcare system have overheard some doozies.
I work in healthcare, so I can relate. I think my favourite was a kid called "Abcde" which we were assured was pronounced "Abasidee". Mirena was a cute choice, named after the contraceptive device. Then there have been some good narrative names including places of birth - e.g. "Shell" (after the baby born in a petrol station carpark) - and places of conception - e.g. "...(a suburb which I'll keep secret - just in case this somehow breaches some poor kid's privacy) bus stop."
Recently found out how much energy it takes to raise a child. Woah.
I'm pretty infuriated that in Canada it can cost $1,676/month for daycare, when science actually tells us we evolved to help each other raise children. I wrote a blog about this in case anyone is interested! I would really like to see this change for mothers all over Canada.
https://textualorientation.wordpress.co ... ledaycare/
A Beautiful article by writer Kathryn McDowell recently I read liked to share with you
Why Pocket Diapers Are Better Than Disposables :
As a young parent, you've no doubt heard of pocket diapers. Perhaps a neighbor or a co-worker told you about them. Or it was your babysitter, who asked you to get them soon. Well, so many families in America are today turning to pocket diapers for their little ones. But a majority still holds on to disposable diapers, while being curious about pocket diapers at the same time.
Why are diapers so great? For a start, pocket diapers come with brand new fabrics and super absorbent pads, are easy to put on, simple to take off, easy to wash and quick to dry. And they are better than disposable diapers.
They are Cheaper
Until your child is potty trained, you'd probably spend something close to $2500 to $3000 on diapers - which is quite a lot. Biodegradable disposable diapers are even costlier. But with pocket ones, you won't have to spend anything more than $350 to $400, till your child is potty trained.
Ya know, I think the one thing I remember is that it wasn't as big a deal as I thought it was. When I was pregnant I'd look at my three year old and think, "What can we do for this delicate little child whose world is about to be upside-down?" Then the baby came home, the three year old suddenly looked like a teenager to me, and I was like eh go fend for yourself kid. And honestly, she did great. She's still really sweet to her little sister.
Here are some notes:
1) New baby really does deserve some new stuff. I went through the things I'd kept from my first... nasty stained onesies, teethers, pacifiers, "pat the fur" type board books that had more than their fair share of patting (and licking, and yakking on...), I have no idea why I kept some of that. Sentimental value, engineer cheapness? Lots of clothes got reused, sure, but the plain white onesies? Splurge on the poor kiddo and spend $6 on another 4-pack.
I breastfed exclusively until 6 months and then started supplementing solids using baby led weaning/Ripley weaning method.
I hate breastfeeding. I don't have the courage to quit. I have over-supply/over-active let-down problems. When my baby was a newborn, hänen mouth was too small to get a good latch on my always engorged breasts. I started using a medela hand pump to pump off a little excess so my breast would be soft enough for the baby to eat. The baby never developed a great latch (since one was never needed to get all the needed milk and more) and has developed some other unhelpful habits that I haven't been able to curb (biting/pulling off without letting go first). I still cry sometimes.
The hand pump has been great. It's unobtrussive, doesn't freak me out, and because of my personal predicament, it takes less time for me to pump than most using electric pumps. The thing that has made breastfeeding slightly more tolerable is what ladyhawk mentioned.
And for anyone with oversupply/leakage issues, these things, http://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/B000058DQ ... SY200_QL40 are the fucking tits. Pun intended. It allowed me to stop being soaked ALL THE TIME, which was especially nice to not have to deal with in the winter. The product does awkwardly give me what I think of as
Probably not. As we pointed out in the other topic, 34 weeks isn't even on the chart because it's so rare:
You'd be better off worrying over a car accident.
As a fat person who is currently pregnant with her second child I will say this. OF COURSE you are allowed to reproduce even if you're chubby. You're allowed to and you can even have a totally healthy pregnancy and a wonderfully healthy child (somehow, despite the fact that my husband and I are both chubby, my daughter is SKINNY - go figure).
I will say this on the topic of maternity clothes though as a fat person. Yes you may be able to wear your regular clothing longer. HOWEVER, maternity clothes make you look pregnant instead of just even fatter. For my own mental health/ego/etc. I really appreciated looking pregnant instead of just fat. Mental health is worth something too.
i search about these quotes in google
I'm not a parent, but I thought it made a pretty entertaining story when my cousin's almost-three-year-old dropped an f-bomb. Her parents were a little embarrassed but also proud of her for using it correctly. It may help that her dad is a linguist and has a theory that most "swear words" are not truly profane/offensive.