This table attempts to estimate your probability of going into labor on different individual days based on your estimated due date. If you don't know your due date, or just want a handy daily page to tell you where you're at, use the pregnancy calendar.
It's based on the idea that the average pregnancy lasts 40 weeks with a standard deviation of about 10 days. This means you're more likely to go into labor on one of the days close to your due date. For instance, about half of all babies are born within a week of their date. Scroll to the bottom of this page if you want to know more about where I got these numbers.
The following dates are based on an estimated due date of November 28th, 2014.
|Date||Progress||Overall probability of
|Current probability of
|probability of a pregnant woman at this stage going into labor|
|On this date||By this date||On this date||By this date||On this date||Within 3 days||Within 5 days||Within 7 days|
|Friday October 24th, 2014||35W, 0D||0.01%||0.02%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.1%||0.2%|
|Saturday October 25th, 2014||35W, 1D||0.01%||0.03%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.2%||0.3%|
|Sunday October 26th, 2014||35W, 2D||0.02%||0.05%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.2%||0.4%|
|Monday October 27th, 2014||35W, 3D||0.02%||0.07%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.3%||0.6%|
|Tuesday October 28th, 2014||35W, 4D||0.03%||0.1%||-%||-%||-%||0.2%||0.4%||0.7%|
|Wednesday October 29th, 2014||35W, 5D||0.04%||0.13%||-%||-%||-%||0.2%||0.5%||0.9%|
|Thursday October 30th, 2014||35W, 6D||0.06%||0.19%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.3%||0.6%||1.2%|
|Friday October 31st, 2014||36W, 0D||0.08%||0.26%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.4%||0.8%||1.5%|
|Saturday November 1st, 2014||36W, 1D||0.1%||0.35%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.5%||1%||1.9%|
|Sunday November 2nd, 2014||36W, 2D||0.14%||0.47%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.6%||1.3%||2.4%|
|Monday November 3rd, 2014||36W, 3D||0.18%||0.62%||-%||-%||0.2%||0.8%||1.7%||3%|
|Tuesday November 4th, 2014||36W, 4D||0.22%||0.82%||-%||-%||0.2%||1%||2.1%||3.7%|
|Wednesday November 5th, 2014||36W, 5D||0.28%||1.07%||-%||-%||0.3%||1.2%||2.5%||4.5%|
|Thursday November 6th, 2014||36W, 6D||0.35%||1.39%||-%||-%||0.4%||1.5%||3.1%||5.4%|
|Friday November 7th, 2014||37W, 0D||0.44%||1.79%||-%||-%||0.4%||1.8%||3.8%||6.4%|
|Saturday November 8th, 2014||37W, 1D||0.54%||2.28%||-%||-%||0.6%||2.2%||4.5%||7.6%|
|Sunday November 9th, 2014||37W, 2D||0.66%||2.87%||-%||-%||0.7%||2.7%||5.4%||8.9%|
|Monday November 10th, 2014||37W, 3D||0.79%||3.59%||-%||-%||0.8%||3.2%||6.3%||10.4%|
|Tuesday November 11th, 2014||37W, 4D||0.94%||4.46%||-%||-%||1%||3.8%||7.4%||11.9%|
|Wednesday November 12th, 2014||37W, 5D||1.11%||5.48%||-%||-%||1.2%||4.4%||8.6%||13.7%|
|Thursday November 13th, 2014||37W, 6D||1.3%||6.68%||-%||-%||1.4%||5.2%||9.8%||15.5%|
|Friday November 14th, 2014||38W, 0D||1.5%||8.08%||-%||-%||1.6%||6%||11.2%||17.5%|
|Saturday November 15th, 2014||38W, 1D||1.71%||9.68%||-%||-%||1.9%||6.9%||12.7%||19.7%|
|Sunday November 16th, 2014||38W, 2D||1.94%||11.51%||-%||-%||2.2%||7.8%||14.3%||21.9%|
|Monday November 17th, 2014||38W, 3D||2.18%||13.57%||-%||-%||2.5%||8.8%||16%||24.2%|
|Tuesday November 18th, 2014||38W, 4D||2.42%||15.87%||-%||-%||2.9%||9.9%||17.8%||26.6%|
|Wednesday November 19th, 2014||38W, 5D||2.66%||18.41%||-%||-%||3.3%||11.1%||19.7%||29%|
|Thursday November 20th, 2014||38W, 6D||2.9%||21.19%||-%||-%||3.7%||12.3%||21.6%||31.5%|
|Friday November 21st, 2014||39W, 0D||3.12%||24.2%||-%||-%||4.1%||13.5%||23.6%||34%|
|Saturday November 22nd, 2014||39W, 1D||3.33%||27.43%||-%||-%||4.6%||14.9%||25.6%||36.6%|
|Sunday November 23rd, 2014||39W, 2D||3.52%||30.85%||-%||-%||5.1%||16.2%||27.7%||39.2%|
|Monday November 24th, 2014||39W, 3D||3.68%||34.46%||-%||-%||5.6%||17.6%||29.8%||41.7%|
|Tuesday November 25th, 2014||39W, 4D||3.81%||38.21%||-%||-%||6.2%||19.1%||31.9%||44.2%|
|Wednesday November 26th, 2014||39W, 5D||3.91%||42.07%||-%||-%||6.7%||20.6%||34%||46.7%|
|Thursday November 27th, 2014||39W, 6D||3.97%||46.02%||-%||-%||7.4%||22.1%||36.2%||49.2%|
|Friday November 28th, 2014||40W, 0D||3.99%||50%||-%||-%||8%||23.6%||38.3%||51.6%|
|Saturday November 29th, 2014||40W, 1D||3.97%||53.98%||7.9%||8%||8.6%||25.1%||40.4%||54%|
|Sunday November 30th, 2014||40W, 2D||3.91%||57.93%||7.8%||15.9%||9.3%||26.7%||42.5%||56.2%|
|Monday December 1st, 2014||40W, 3D||3.81%||61.79%||7.6%||23.6%||10%||28.2%||44.5%||58.5%|
|Tuesday December 2nd, 2014||40W, 4D||3.68%||65.54%||7.4%||31.1%||10.7%||29.8%||46.6%||60.6%|
|Wednesday December 3rd, 2014||40W, 5D||3.52%||69.15%||7%||38.3%||11.4%||31.3%||48.6%||62.7%|
|Thursday December 4th, 2014||40W, 6D||3.33%||72.57%||6.7%||45.1%||12.1%||32.9%||50.5%||64.7%|
|Friday December 5th, 2014||41W, 0D||3.12%||75.8%||6.2%||51.6%||12.9%||34.4%||52.4%||66.6%|
|Saturday December 6th, 2014||41W, 1D||2.9%||78.81%||5.8%||57.6%||13.7%||36%||54.3%||68.5%|
|Sunday December 7th, 2014||41W, 2D||2.66%||81.59%||5.3%||63.2%||14.4%||37.5%||56.1%||70.2%|
|Monday December 8th, 2014||41W, 3D||2.42%||84.13%||4.8%||68.3%||15.2%||39%||57.9%||71.9%|
|Tuesday December 9th, 2014||41W, 4D||2.18%||86.43%||4.4%||72.9%||16.1%||40.5%||59.6%||73.5%|
|Wednesday December 10th, 2014||41W, 5D||1.94%||88.49%||3.9%||77%||16.9%||42%||61.3%||75.1%|
|Thursday December 11th, 2014||41W, 6D||1.71%||90.32%||3.4%||80.6%||17.7%||43.4%||62.9%||76.4%|
|Friday December 12th, 2014||42W, 0D||1.5%||91.92%||3%||83.8%||18.6%||44.8%||64.5%||77.8%|
|Saturday December 13th, 2014||42W, 1D||1.3%||93.32%||2.6%||86.6%||19.5%||46.3%||65.9%||79.2%|
|Sunday December 14th, 2014||42W, 2D||1.11%||94.52%||2.2%||89%||20.3%||47.6%||67.3%||80.5%|
|Monday December 15th, 2014||42W, 3D||0.94%||95.54%||1.9%||91.1%||21.1%||48.9%||68.8%||81.6%|
|Tuesday December 16th, 2014||42W, 4D||0.79%||96.41%||1.6%||92.8%||22%||50.1%||70.2%||82.7%|
|Wednesday December 17th, 2014||42W, 5D||0.66%||97.13%||1.3%||94.3%||23%||51.6%||71.4%||83.6%|
|Thursday December 18th, 2014||42W, 6D||0.54%||97.72%||1.1%||95.4%||23.7%||53.1%||72.8%||84.6%|
|Friday December 19th, 2014||43W, 0D||0.44%||98.21%||0.9%||96.4%||24.6%||54.2%||73.7%||85.5%|
|Saturday December 20th, 2014||43W, 1D||0.35%||98.61%||0.7%||97.2%||25.2%||55.4%||74.8%||86.3%|
|Sunday December 21st, 2014||43W, 2D||0.28%||98.93%||0.6%||97.9%||26.2%||56.1%||75.7%||87.9%|
|Monday December 22nd, 2014||43W, 3D||0.22%||99.18%||0.4%||98.4%||26.8%||57.3%||76.8%||-%|
|Tuesday December 23rd, 2014||43W, 4D||0.18%||99.38%||0.4%||98.8%||29%||58.1%||79%||-%|
|Wednesday December 24th, 2014||43W, 5D||0.14%||99.53%||0.3%||99.1%||29.8%||59.6%||-%||-%|
|Thursday December 25th, 2014||43W, 6D||0.1%||99.65%||0.2%||99.3%||28.6%||62.9%||-%||-%|
|Friday December 26th, 2014||44W, 0D||0.08%||99.74%||0.2%||99.5%||30.8%||-%||-%||-%|
|Saturday December 27th, 2014||44W, 1D||0.06%||99.81%||0.1%||99.6%||31.6%||-%||-%||-%|
|Sunday December 28th, 2014||44W, 2D||0.04%||99.87%||0.1%||99.7%||30.8%||-%||-%||-%|
All percentages are estimates based on mathematical averages and should not be taken terribly seriously... just because you only have 5% chance of going into labor two weeks early, that doesn't mean you should schedule a trip to the bahamas that weekend (see xkcd to get what I mean here).
You should (obviously) listen to your doctor or midwife on all matters related to pregnancy and childbirth. Just because this chart tells you that a 42W pregnant woman has a high chance of delivering in the next seven days, it doesn't mean it's healthy for her to be pregnant for seven more days. If your doctor wants to increase probability of delivery by inducing labor, there's probably a good reason.
Finding good distribution statistics on spontaneous labor is interesting. I have not found a study with an exact daily breakdown of when babies are born. However I have read way too much on this topic, so I can tell you that my favorite published research is The length of human pregnancy as calculated by ultrasonographic measurement of the fetal biparietal diameter (H. Kieler, O. Axelsson, S. Nilsson, U. Waldenströ) which a very nice table of 10 published studies, which found various means between 272-283 days. The study contributes their own results as well, analyzing nearly 2000 mothers who went into labor spontaneously, and there's graphs of what they found. They found a mean around 280 days, and standard deviations between 8-11 days. There's a big list of other studies and answers in the Introduction to my due date survey results.
Which leads to this topic... I am also in the process of collecting my own statistics. If you have had a baby, please take my due date survey. Oddly enough, the numbers I've collected so far support my messy hunch that pregnancy length has a 40-week mean and 9-10 day standard deviation. So go me.
Anyway if you have better research, drop me an e-mail (firstname.lastname@example.org).
Charts are generated by flot.
^That's where my dissconnect with the rioting comes in. I have this feeling (which may very well be wrong) that the people rioting in Ferguson are not at their limit but are taking advantage of a situation and I guess my beef is more with those that are looting than those that are just rioting.
My favorite movie is Knocked Up, it should definitely be on the list. Most of these movies I've never seen and some of them like Saved aren't solely focused on pregnancy. Out of the ones listed I would have to say "What to Expect when you're expecting".
I got a comped ticket to the MoMA once when a friend worked there. I only had two hours to spend there, but easily could've spent 6. I don't think of museum-going as a particular interest of mine, but I was sucked into something new in every room. I haven't gone back, but I'd love to.
My parents dragged my sister and me to see "Carnation, Lily, Lily, Rose" and "Sunday in the Park" at the Chicago Art Institute when we were small. We didn't get there til near closing time, so we had to book it through the entire museum to get there for a few minutes' viewing, and we were tired and complained the whole time because we were children and jerks, but I admit I won't forget the paintings. Our parents cooed over the fact that the girls in "Carnation" could've been us, and the whole pointillism thing very much impressed me.
We've been decluttering / organising gradually for months now (and have got rid of lots of things! Lots have been recycled, or cleaned up and donated). I kind of like organising but only when there is enough space to actually put everything in. We've just moved house, so getting the volume of stuff to move down as low as possible for that was a big motivator. I read "The life-changing magic of tidying" by Marie Kondo a couple of months ago and rather liked it. She has a whole philosophy about tidying that I think makes a lot of sense (a practical approach which involves actually handling each item and seeing how you feel about it and saying goodbye gracefully to things).
I find it hardest to get rid of things I no longer want/need but that aren't in great condition - i.e. where I can see that there's still a lot of potential wear in them, but I don't think anyone would buy them from a charity shop. I really don't want to send things to landfill when they could still be used - but I can't keep all of them (current example: slightly stained but otherwise totally functional drawstring cotton laundry bag that I'm not super-fond of and don't need - bought in 2007 when I did need it for Uni ...).
We have spent a lot of time babyproofing the dog, pestering it so it won't react negatively to ear and tail tugs.
Don't most dogs understand babies, like they do puppies? I know most of my friends with dogs haven't had a problem, you can even almost read the exasperation on the dog when the kid is screwing with it.
OMG AKA_LAURA CONGRATULATIONS!
My baby needs diapers, since pooping is currently her favorite activity. An 18 month old in no way needs $2000 worth of gifts.
For older kiddos, I kind of like the "something you want, something you need, something to wear and something to read" thing. It's cheesy, but helps focus the holiday a bit.
I also like books, because I feel like someone really can't have too many books. They're easy to store, good for baby brains, and make good donation items if you do end up with a surplus.
I almost never had to deal with this. I was living in a remote area and not interacting much with others. Also, the culture here doesn't seem conducive of interacting with people by touching them.
One of my spouse's young nieces touched my belly and I didn't know how to tell her not to do it. She was immediately corrected by her mother about not touching people without permission.
Then my parents arrived. I mostly just dealt with their touch, but probably not with much class.
My occupation used to be "college student/bum" which made it an interesting answer to what I wanted to be when I grew up for sure. Glad to see I wasn't the only one. I changed it, but I already forget what to... probably that I still don't know.
Yay aka_laura's back!
And she's also my niece's mom!
waaaaaaait, what? O.o
We also opted not to tell our family the sex of our baby before she was born. We had decided not to do the blood tests or anything (our insurance also would have covered it), and on the ultrasound she was REALLY uncooperative anyway, so when the tech asked if we wanted to know, we said "not really" and she looked really relieved and said "Good because I really can't tell and if you don't want to know we can stop now". So it was good for us that she was uncooperative. We still got a lot of pressure but living far from family made at least that easier.
I think I've mentioned my mom is awesome. She ran a bunch of interference for us and made people not bother me too much (I have plenty of nurses in my family, which means they know I could go back in and find out if I'd wanted).
So we got a lot of yellow and green (and some blue, and I made sure to buy pink because it's stupid girls can wear blue and boys "can't" wear pink) for the baby showers. Once she was born, we get more pink, but since most of the people who buy her things are Grandma and Grandpa and Auntie and Uncle, and they get it, they also get her other colors too.
Monterey Bay Aquarium has some seafood recommendations, and they'll have information about mercury.
Herbal teas - what spacefem says about "weird" ones is true. There is one that can cause premature contractions, but it sure as hell isn't mint.
I think the rec was to very strongly avoid St Johns Wort, if I recall correctly. I'll go dig through the info I have from my doctor friends.
really you guys? I unfriend all the time!
why mute someone? that means they're still going to be seeing your posts, commenting on your photos, getting to be "in" your life, and never know anything changed. what good is happening by keeping them around?
My former art teacher is quite conservative, but I still like his comments on my artwork.
I put people I think are otherwise perfectly delightful on mute because they flood facebook with useless crap. I don't want them to get the idea that I hate them, but I don't feel like seeing pages of what they have to say.
I think a lot of people have opinions I don't care for. Rather than offending someone I know and respect in person, I choose to just not see it. Facebook has a knack for showing sides of people I don't want to see, but it's just small sides of them. To me, it's not worth shutting out the person completely. After awhile, I occasionally take them off mute to see if they stopped with their nonsense.
Yooooooooooooooooo I keep forgetting to tell you I'm in LA until next Saturday and we should grab lunch if you're free!
Wait whaaaaaaaaaat, okay, I'm leaving town tomorrow for Thanksgiving but I'm going to move this discussion to Facebook.
And MFS, of course you should be scared. BAHAHAHAHA