This table attempts to estimate your probability of going into labor on different individual days based on your estimated due date. If you don't know your due date, or just want a handy daily page to tell you where you're at, use the pregnancy calendar.
It's based on the idea that the average pregnancy lasts 40 weeks with a standard deviation of about 10 days. This means you're more likely to go into labor on one of the days close to your due date. For instance, about half of all babies are born within a week of their date. Scroll to the bottom of this page if you want to know more about where I got these numbers.
The following dates are based on an estimated due date of September 24th, 2016.
|Date||Progress||Overall probability of
|Current probability of
|probability of a pregnant woman at this stage going into labor|
|On this date||By this date||On this date||By this date||On this date||Within 3 days||Within 5 days||Within 7 days|
|Saturday August 20th, 2016||35W, 0D||0.01%||0.02%||0.01%||0.02%||-%||0.1%||0.1%||0.2%|
|Sunday August 21st, 2016||35W, 1D||0.01%||0.03%||0.01%||0.03%||-%||0.1%||0.2%||0.3%|
|Monday August 22nd, 2016||35W, 2D||0.02%||0.05%||0.02%||0.05%||-%||0.1%||0.2%||0.4%|
|Tuesday August 23rd, 2016||35W, 3D||0.02%||0.07%||0.02%||0.07%||-%||0.1%||0.3%||0.6%|
|Wednesday August 24th, 2016||35W, 4D||0.03%||0.1%||0.03%||0.1%||-%||0.2%||0.4%||0.7%|
|Thursday August 25th, 2016||35W, 5D||0.04%||0.13%||0.04%||0.13%||-%||0.2%||0.5%||0.9%|
|Friday August 26th, 2016||35W, 6D||0.06%||0.19%||0.06%||0.19%||0.1%||0.3%||0.6%||1.2%|
|Saturday August 27th, 2016||36W, 0D||0.08%||0.26%||0.08%||0.26%||0.1%||0.4%||0.8%||1.5%|
|Sunday August 28th, 2016||36W, 1D||0.1%||0.35%||0.1%||0.35%||0.1%||0.5%||1%||1.9%|
|Monday August 29th, 2016||36W, 2D||0.14%||0.47%||0.14%||0.47%||0.1%||0.6%||1.3%||2.4%|
|Tuesday August 30th, 2016||36W, 3D||0.18%||0.62%||0.18%||0.62%||0.2%||0.8%||1.7%||3%|
|Wednesday August 31st, 2016||36W, 4D||0.22%||0.82%||0.22%||0.82%||0.2%||1%||2.1%||3.7%|
|Thursday September 1st, 2016||36W, 5D||0.28%||1.07%||0.28%||1.07%||0.3%||1.2%||2.5%||4.5%|
|Friday September 2nd, 2016||36W, 6D||0.35%||1.39%||0.35%||1.39%||0.4%||1.5%||3.1%||5.4%|
|Saturday September 3rd, 2016||37W, 0D||0.44%||1.79%||0.44%||1.79%||0.4%||1.8%||3.8%||6.4%|
|Sunday September 4th, 2016||37W, 1D||0.54%||2.28%||0.54%||2.28%||0.6%||2.2%||4.5%||7.6%|
|Monday September 5th, 2016||37W, 2D||0.66%||2.87%||0.66%||2.87%||0.7%||2.7%||5.4%||8.9%|
|Tuesday September 6th, 2016||37W, 3D||0.79%||3.59%||0.79%||3.59%||0.8%||3.2%||6.3%||10.4%|
|Wednesday September 7th, 2016||37W, 4D||0.94%||4.46%||0.94%||4.46%||1%||3.8%||7.4%||11.9%|
|Thursday September 8th, 2016||37W, 5D||1.11%||5.48%||1.11%||5.48%||1.2%||4.4%||8.6%||13.7%|
|Friday September 9th, 2016||37W, 6D||1.3%||6.68%||1.3%||6.68%||1.4%||5.2%||9.8%||15.5%|
|Saturday September 10th, 2016||38W, 0D||1.5%||8.08%||1.5%||8.08%||1.6%||6%||11.2%||17.5%|
|Sunday September 11th, 2016||38W, 1D||1.71%||9.68%||1.71%||9.68%||1.9%||6.9%||12.7%||19.7%|
|Monday September 12th, 2016||38W, 2D||1.94%||11.51%||1.94%||11.51%||2.2%||7.8%||14.3%||21.9%|
|Tuesday September 13th, 2016||38W, 3D||2.18%||13.57%||2.18%||13.57%||2.5%||8.8%||16%||24.2%|
|Wednesday September 14th, 2016||38W, 4D||2.42%||15.87%||2.42%||15.87%||2.9%||9.9%||17.8%||26.6%|
|Thursday September 15th, 2016||38W, 5D||2.66%||18.41%||2.66%||18.41%||3.3%||11.1%||19.7%||29%|
|Friday September 16th, 2016||38W, 6D||2.9%||21.19%||2.9%||21.19%||3.7%||12.3%||21.6%||31.5%|
|Saturday September 17th, 2016||39W, 0D||3.12%||24.2%||3.12%||24.2%||4.1%||13.5%||23.6%||34%|
|Sunday September 18th, 2016||39W, 1D||3.33%||27.43%||3.33%||27.43%||4.6%||14.9%||25.6%||36.6%|
|Monday September 19th, 2016||39W, 2D||3.52%||30.85%||3.52%||30.85%||5.1%||16.2%||27.7%||39.2%|
|Tuesday September 20th, 2016||39W, 3D||3.68%||34.46%||3.68%||34.46%||5.6%||17.6%||29.8%||41.7%|
|Wednesday September 21st, 2016||39W, 4D||3.81%||38.21%||3.81%||38.21%||6.2%||19.1%||31.9%||44.2%|
|Thursday September 22nd, 2016||39W, 5D||3.91%||42.07%||3.91%||42.07%||6.7%||20.6%||34%||46.7%|
|Friday September 23rd, 2016||39W, 6D||3.97%||46.02%||3.97%||46.02%||7.4%||22.1%||36.2%||49.2%|
|Saturday September 24th, 2016||40W, 0D||3.99%||50%||3.99%||50%||8%||23.6%||38.3%||51.6%|
|Sunday September 25th, 2016||40W, 1D||3.97%||53.98%||3.97%||53.98%||8.6%||25.1%||40.4%||54%|
|Monday September 26th, 2016||40W, 2D||3.91%||57.93%||3.91%||57.93%||9.3%||26.7%||42.5%||56.2%|
|Tuesday September 27th, 2016||40W, 3D||3.81%||61.79%||3.81%||61.79%||10%||28.2%||44.5%||58.5%|
|Wednesday September 28th, 2016||40W, 4D||3.68%||65.54%||3.68%||65.54%||10.7%||29.8%||46.6%||60.6%|
|Thursday September 29th, 2016||40W, 5D||3.52%||69.15%||3.52%||69.15%||11.4%||31.3%||48.6%||62.7%|
|Friday September 30th, 2016||40W, 6D||3.33%||72.57%||3.33%||72.57%||12.1%||32.9%||50.5%||64.7%|
|Saturday October 1st, 2016||41W, 0D||3.12%||75.8%||3.12%||75.8%||12.9%||34.4%||52.4%||66.6%|
|Sunday October 2nd, 2016||41W, 1D||2.9%||78.81%||2.9%||78.81%||13.7%||36%||54.3%||68.5%|
|Monday October 3rd, 2016||41W, 2D||2.66%||81.59%||2.66%||81.59%||14.4%||37.5%||56.1%||70.2%|
|Tuesday October 4th, 2016||41W, 3D||2.42%||84.13%||2.42%||84.13%||15.2%||39%||57.9%||71.9%|
|Wednesday October 5th, 2016||41W, 4D||2.18%||86.43%||2.18%||86.43%||16.1%||40.5%||59.6%||73.5%|
|Thursday October 6th, 2016||41W, 5D||1.94%||88.49%||1.94%||88.49%||16.9%||42%||61.3%||75.1%|
|Friday October 7th, 2016||41W, 6D||1.71%||90.32%||1.71%||90.32%||17.7%||43.4%||62.9%||76.4%|
|Saturday October 8th, 2016||42W, 0D||1.5%||91.92%||1.5%||91.92%||18.6%||44.8%||64.5%||77.8%|
|Sunday October 9th, 2016||42W, 1D||1.3%||93.32%||1.3%||93.32%||19.5%||46.3%||65.9%||79.2%|
|Monday October 10th, 2016||42W, 2D||1.11%||94.52%||1.11%||94.52%||20.3%||47.6%||67.3%||80.5%|
|Tuesday October 11th, 2016||42W, 3D||0.94%||95.54%||0.94%||95.54%||21.1%||48.9%||68.8%||81.6%|
|Wednesday October 12th, 2016||42W, 4D||0.79%||96.41%||0.79%||96.41%||22%||50.1%||70.2%||82.7%|
|Thursday October 13th, 2016||42W, 5D||0.66%||97.13%||0.66%||97.13%||23%||51.6%||71.4%||83.6%|
|Friday October 14th, 2016||42W, 6D||0.54%||97.72%||0.54%||97.72%||23.7%||53.1%||72.8%||84.6%|
|Saturday October 15th, 2016||43W, 0D||0.44%||98.21%||0.44%||98.21%||24.6%||54.2%||73.7%||85.5%|
|Sunday October 16th, 2016||43W, 1D||0.35%||98.61%||0.35%||98.61%||25.2%||55.4%||74.8%||86.3%|
|Monday October 17th, 2016||43W, 2D||0.28%||98.93%||0.28%||98.93%||26.2%||56.1%||75.7%||87.9%|
|Tuesday October 18th, 2016||43W, 3D||0.22%||99.18%||0.22%||99.18%||26.8%||57.3%||76.8%||-%|
|Wednesday October 19th, 2016||43W, 4D||0.18%||99.38%||0.18%||99.38%||29%||58.1%||79%||-%|
|Thursday October 20th, 2016||43W, 5D||0.14%||99.53%||0.14%||99.53%||29.8%||59.6%||-%||-%|
|Friday October 21st, 2016||43W, 6D||0.1%||99.65%||0.1%||99.65%||28.6%||62.9%||-%||-%|
|Saturday October 22nd, 2016||44W, 0D||0.08%||99.74%||0.08%||99.74%||30.8%||-%||-%||-%|
|Sunday October 23rd, 2016||44W, 1D||0.06%||99.81%||0.06%||99.81%||31.6%||-%||-%||-%|
|Monday October 24th, 2016||44W, 2D||0.04%||99.87%||0.04%||99.87%||30.8%||-%||-%||-%|
All percentages are estimates based on mathematical averages and should not be taken terribly seriously... just because you only have 5% chance of going into labor two weeks early, that doesn't mean you should schedule a trip to the bahamas that weekend (see xkcd to get what I mean here).
You should (obviously) listen to your doctor or midwife on all matters related to pregnancy and childbirth. Just because this chart tells you that a 42W pregnant woman has a high chance of delivering in the next seven days, it doesn't mean it's healthy for her to be pregnant for seven more days. If your doctor wants to increase probability of delivery by inducing labor, there's probably a good reason.
Finding good distribution statistics on spontaneous labor is interesting. I have not found a study with an exact daily breakdown of when babies are born. However I have read way too much on this topic, so I can tell you that my favorite published research is The length of human pregnancy as calculated by ultrasonographic measurement of the fetal biparietal diameter (H. Kieler, O. Axelsson, S. Nilsson, U. Waldenströ) which a very nice table of 10 published studies, which found various means between 272-283 days. The study contributes their own results as well, analyzing nearly 2000 mothers who went into labor spontaneously, and there's graphs of what they found. They found a mean around 280 days, and standard deviations between 8-11 days. There's a big list of other studies and answers in the Introduction to my due date survey results.
Which leads to this topic... I am also in the process of collecting my own statistics. If you have had a baby, please take my due date survey. Oddly enough, the numbers I've collected so far support my messy hunch that pregnancy length has a 40-week mean and 9-10 day standard deviation. So go me.
Anyway if you have better research, drop me an e-mail (firstname.lastname@example.org).
Charts are generated by flot.
I hope your second is as easy as your first, but I know people whose children were night and day, and what worked for one kid didn't for the other. There's no one solution for all kids.
One of my friends is part of this magazine. She didn't write this one but it's pretty hilarious.
http://theoffingmag.com/wits-end/pregna ... cool-moms/
Anyone want to come up with our own "Guidebook" titles?
I don't think it's a cause for immediate concern, but my experience would lead me to talk to a doctor about it. I didn't have a stutter when I was 2. I had language delay. I didn't learn language when kids typically do. Needless to say, I was a very frustrated little kid. When my parents and my pediatrician caught on to it, I had to spend a few years seeing a speech pathologist.
I've read that stuttering is at least partly psychological, but I really can't say more than that. If nothing else, I'd just want to know that his frustration is a necessary part of development like teething and not something that can be avoided.
Actually I think it would be better if the penalty was rehab and being sent to a therapist. It's pretty dumb to criminalize it especially because there is an almost certainty custody will be taken away. Why not try and fix the problem with addiction so there is less of a strain on social services. There should be increased awareness but what idiot doesn't know drugs are bad for you and worse if your pregnant. If you are addicted to drugs you obviously are thinking about getting high and that's about it.
I just had a look at your article.
As you say, many comments have been deleted, but that's probably for the best otherwise I'd get mad.
I'm about to have my first child and have had some similarly surprising responses from people when I explain I'm going to be a SAHM; everything from admiration to unsolicited suggestions that a nanny is better than daycare. When I explain that the reason is that I acut ally want to work but my earnings from my two part time jobs would barely cover childcare, it always gets awkward. And then they suggest the whole home daycare/nanny thing again. Even if I could afford it, I'd rather choose the daycare because they have facilities and resources that I don't (I live in a basement apartment, with pretty minimalist furnishings).
I get it. People have strong beliefs about what is 'best', but it's not a one-size-fits-all scenario. And holy crap! If a woman wants and is able to work after having kids, why on earth shouldn't she?
Don't be silly monk, everyone knows a good conglomerate goes better with milk
I think it depends on the child. Do you ask a newborn if it needs it's diaper changed? Obviously no. Do you help a 13 year old get dressed? Obviously no. Somewhere in there the child matures to the point where they should learn that they own their bodies even if they don't have all the privileges an adult does. This age is going to vary wildly between different children (by widly, I would say 3 year range). I would guess that some kids might be ready for this lesson as early as 3 while others not until they're about to go school. Actually that's a pretty good benchmark, because if you're going to put them in a group with other kids they don't know they should know the rules about touching or being touched.
As far as kissing Grandma, maybe they shouldn't have to do it, but making them do this social communcation helps get them ready for all the other social communication that will be forced on them later. Plus, grandma needs that love to help HER be healthy.
There's a Bulgarian tradition about the umbilical cord my friend told me about. When the dried little stump falls off your baby, you're supposed to throw it in a place that reflects your child's future, or at least the future you want for them. My friend threw his first son's on to the pitch at a Yankees' game and for his second son he threw it at the stage during a concert!
When my son's cord fell off a few weeks ago, I put it on the counter next to his changing pad then promptly forgot about it. I've no idea where it is now.
It's really obvious that the dog is stressed out by the toddler and I'm worried about the times when the kid is showing too much interest in the dog and we're not paying enough attention.
Yeah-stressed out dogs can make for stressful times with toddlers. Toddlers just want to pet and hug, and don't want to listen to pleas to leave the dog alone. We wound up getting an automatic treat dispenser and giving the dog relaxation exercises behind a barrier. So now when the toddler is running the length of the house screaming, the dog can be behind the barrier staring lovingly at her treat dispenser, instead of trying to herd the kid. Of course, it isn't really feasible to keep the dog behind the barriers at all times, but at least it gives us some breaks.
Our behavioralist also recommended Prozac, which took a long time to get the dose right, but has helped the dog be less reactionary and neurotic.
Hi! It's a great idea to throw a party for your Mom. So yeah, invite her good friends and those who she hasn't seen for quite some time already. Prepare some healthy food or you can get a caterer for this tell them to prepare your mom's favorite dishes. Set up a good sound system where they can opt to dance or sing their old fav songs. Request her friends to prepare a great birthday greetings and i'm sure she won't forget this event.
For the first two birthdays, we tried to make some special food and splurge on interesting fruit. If I lived closer to friends, I would want to throw a get-together as an excuse to see my friends, celebrate our survival of another year. I don't think my kid would actually be into that though. They are turning out to be quite introverted and shy.
I met a kid about that age who had a geo-caching birthday party and another one who had a roller-skating party. Both sounded awesome. The first one sounded like a whole lot of work to put together.
my neighbor's dog is named Gunner? Makes more sense for a bird dog....
Pretty sure this was a spam post but the post itself is kind of interesting. Maybe it could go to Sci & Tech, though it has relevance here as well. I added a link to the
oh re: diaper rash, we found our kiddo was super sensitive and when things go really bad we got something prescribed from the doc that worked *wonders*. IDEK why that stuff isn't marketed, the pharmacist mixed it all up. The doc called it "poop goop" but I dunno what was in it.