This table attempts to estimate your probability of going into labor on different individual days based on your estimated due date. If you don't know your due date, or just want a handy daily page to tell you where you're at, use the pregnancy calendar.
It's based on the idea that the average pregnancy lasts 40 weeks with a standard deviation of about 10 days. This means you're more likely to go into labor on one of the days close to your due date. For instance, about half of all babies are born within a week of their date. Scroll to the bottom of this page if you want to know more about where I got these numbers.
The following dates are based on an estimated due date of September 25th, 2015.
|Date||Progress||Overall probability of
|Current probability of
|probability of a pregnant woman at this stage going into labor|
|On this date||By this date||On this date||By this date||On this date||Within 3 days||Within 5 days||Within 7 days|
|Friday August 21st, 2015||35W, 0D||0.01%||0.02%||0.01%||0.02%||-%||0.1%||0.1%||0.2%|
|Saturday August 22nd, 2015||35W, 1D||0.01%||0.03%||0.01%||0.03%||-%||0.1%||0.2%||0.3%|
|Sunday August 23rd, 2015||35W, 2D||0.02%||0.05%||0.02%||0.05%||-%||0.1%||0.2%||0.4%|
|Monday August 24th, 2015||35W, 3D||0.02%||0.07%||0.02%||0.07%||-%||0.1%||0.3%||0.6%|
|Tuesday August 25th, 2015||35W, 4D||0.03%||0.1%||0.03%||0.1%||-%||0.2%||0.4%||0.7%|
|Wednesday August 26th, 2015||35W, 5D||0.04%||0.13%||0.04%||0.13%||-%||0.2%||0.5%||0.9%|
|Thursday August 27th, 2015||35W, 6D||0.06%||0.19%||0.06%||0.19%||0.1%||0.3%||0.6%||1.2%|
|Friday August 28th, 2015||36W, 0D||0.08%||0.26%||0.08%||0.26%||0.1%||0.4%||0.8%||1.5%|
|Saturday August 29th, 2015||36W, 1D||0.1%||0.35%||0.1%||0.35%||0.1%||0.5%||1%||1.9%|
|Sunday August 30th, 2015||36W, 2D||0.14%||0.47%||0.14%||0.47%||0.1%||0.6%||1.3%||2.4%|
|Monday August 31st, 2015||36W, 3D||0.18%||0.62%||0.18%||0.62%||0.2%||0.8%||1.7%||3%|
|Tuesday September 1st, 2015||36W, 4D||0.22%||0.82%||0.22%||0.82%||0.2%||1%||2.1%||3.7%|
|Wednesday September 2nd, 2015||36W, 5D||0.28%||1.07%||0.28%||1.07%||0.3%||1.2%||2.5%||4.5%|
|Thursday September 3rd, 2015||36W, 6D||0.35%||1.39%||0.35%||1.39%||0.4%||1.5%||3.1%||5.4%|
|Friday September 4th, 2015||37W, 0D||0.44%||1.79%||0.44%||1.79%||0.4%||1.8%||3.8%||6.4%|
|Saturday September 5th, 2015||37W, 1D||0.54%||2.28%||0.54%||2.28%||0.6%||2.2%||4.5%||7.6%|
|Sunday September 6th, 2015||37W, 2D||0.66%||2.87%||0.66%||2.87%||0.7%||2.7%||5.4%||8.9%|
|Monday September 7th, 2015||37W, 3D||0.79%||3.59%||0.79%||3.59%||0.8%||3.2%||6.3%||10.4%|
|Tuesday September 8th, 2015||37W, 4D||0.94%||4.46%||0.94%||4.46%||1%||3.8%||7.4%||11.9%|
|Wednesday September 9th, 2015||37W, 5D||1.11%||5.48%||1.11%||5.48%||1.2%||4.4%||8.6%||13.7%|
|Thursday September 10th, 2015||37W, 6D||1.3%||6.68%||1.3%||6.68%||1.4%||5.2%||9.8%||15.5%|
|Friday September 11th, 2015||38W, 0D||1.5%||8.08%||1.5%||8.08%||1.6%||6%||11.2%||17.5%|
|Saturday September 12th, 2015||38W, 1D||1.71%||9.68%||1.71%||9.68%||1.9%||6.9%||12.7%||19.7%|
|Sunday September 13th, 2015||38W, 2D||1.94%||11.51%||1.94%||11.51%||2.2%||7.8%||14.3%||21.9%|
|Monday September 14th, 2015||38W, 3D||2.18%||13.57%||2.18%||13.57%||2.5%||8.8%||16%||24.2%|
|Tuesday September 15th, 2015||38W, 4D||2.42%||15.87%||2.42%||15.87%||2.9%||9.9%||17.8%||26.6%|
|Wednesday September 16th, 2015||38W, 5D||2.66%||18.41%||2.66%||18.41%||3.3%||11.1%||19.7%||29%|
|Thursday September 17th, 2015||38W, 6D||2.9%||21.19%||2.9%||21.19%||3.7%||12.3%||21.6%||31.5%|
|Friday September 18th, 2015||39W, 0D||3.12%||24.2%||3.12%||24.2%||4.1%||13.5%||23.6%||34%|
|Saturday September 19th, 2015||39W, 1D||3.33%||27.43%||3.33%||27.43%||4.6%||14.9%||25.6%||36.6%|
|Sunday September 20th, 2015||39W, 2D||3.52%||30.85%||3.52%||30.85%||5.1%||16.2%||27.7%||39.2%|
|Monday September 21st, 2015||39W, 3D||3.68%||34.46%||3.68%||34.46%||5.6%||17.6%||29.8%||41.7%|
|Tuesday September 22nd, 2015||39W, 4D||3.81%||38.21%||3.81%||38.21%||6.2%||19.1%||31.9%||44.2%|
|Wednesday September 23rd, 2015||39W, 5D||3.91%||42.07%||3.91%||42.07%||6.7%||20.6%||34%||46.7%|
|Thursday September 24th, 2015||39W, 6D||3.97%||46.02%||3.97%||46.02%||7.4%||22.1%||36.2%||49.2%|
|Friday September 25th, 2015||40W, 0D||3.99%||50%||3.99%||50%||8%||23.6%||38.3%||51.6%|
|Saturday September 26th, 2015||40W, 1D||3.97%||53.98%||3.97%||53.98%||8.6%||25.1%||40.4%||54%|
|Sunday September 27th, 2015||40W, 2D||3.91%||57.93%||3.91%||57.93%||9.3%||26.7%||42.5%||56.2%|
|Monday September 28th, 2015||40W, 3D||3.81%||61.79%||3.81%||61.79%||10%||28.2%||44.5%||58.5%|
|Tuesday September 29th, 2015||40W, 4D||3.68%||65.54%||3.68%||65.54%||10.7%||29.8%||46.6%||60.6%|
|Wednesday September 30th, 2015||40W, 5D||3.52%||69.15%||3.52%||69.15%||11.4%||31.3%||48.6%||62.7%|
|Thursday October 1st, 2015||40W, 6D||3.33%||72.57%||3.33%||72.57%||12.1%||32.9%||50.5%||64.7%|
|Friday October 2nd, 2015||41W, 0D||3.12%||75.8%||3.12%||75.8%||12.9%||34.4%||52.4%||66.6%|
|Saturday October 3rd, 2015||41W, 1D||2.9%||78.81%||2.9%||78.81%||13.7%||36%||54.3%||68.5%|
|Sunday October 4th, 2015||41W, 2D||2.66%||81.59%||2.66%||81.59%||14.4%||37.5%||56.1%||70.2%|
|Monday October 5th, 2015||41W, 3D||2.42%||84.13%||2.42%||84.13%||15.2%||39%||57.9%||71.9%|
|Tuesday October 6th, 2015||41W, 4D||2.18%||86.43%||2.18%||86.43%||16.1%||40.5%||59.6%||73.5%|
|Wednesday October 7th, 2015||41W, 5D||1.94%||88.49%||1.94%||88.49%||16.9%||42%||61.3%||75.1%|
|Thursday October 8th, 2015||41W, 6D||1.71%||90.32%||1.71%||90.32%||17.7%||43.4%||62.9%||76.4%|
|Friday October 9th, 2015||42W, 0D||1.5%||91.92%||1.5%||91.92%||18.6%||44.8%||64.5%||77.8%|
|Saturday October 10th, 2015||42W, 1D||1.3%||93.32%||1.3%||93.32%||19.5%||46.3%||65.9%||79.2%|
|Sunday October 11th, 2015||42W, 2D||1.11%||94.52%||1.11%||94.52%||20.3%||47.6%||67.3%||80.5%|
|Monday October 12th, 2015||42W, 3D||0.94%||95.54%||0.94%||95.54%||21.1%||48.9%||68.8%||81.6%|
|Tuesday October 13th, 2015||42W, 4D||0.79%||96.41%||0.79%||96.41%||22%||50.1%||70.2%||82.7%|
|Wednesday October 14th, 2015||42W, 5D||0.66%||97.13%||0.66%||97.13%||23%||51.6%||71.4%||83.6%|
|Thursday October 15th, 2015||42W, 6D||0.54%||97.72%||0.54%||97.72%||23.7%||53.1%||72.8%||84.6%|
|Friday October 16th, 2015||43W, 0D||0.44%||98.21%||0.44%||98.21%||24.6%||54.2%||73.7%||85.5%|
|Saturday October 17th, 2015||43W, 1D||0.35%||98.61%||0.35%||98.61%||25.2%||55.4%||74.8%||86.3%|
|Sunday October 18th, 2015||43W, 2D||0.28%||98.93%||0.28%||98.93%||26.2%||56.1%||75.7%||87.9%|
|Monday October 19th, 2015||43W, 3D||0.22%||99.18%||0.22%||99.18%||26.8%||57.3%||76.8%||-%|
|Tuesday October 20th, 2015||43W, 4D||0.18%||99.38%||0.18%||99.38%||29%||58.1%||79%||-%|
|Wednesday October 21st, 2015||43W, 5D||0.14%||99.53%||0.14%||99.53%||29.8%||59.6%||-%||-%|
|Thursday October 22nd, 2015||43W, 6D||0.1%||99.65%||0.1%||99.65%||28.6%||62.9%||-%||-%|
|Friday October 23rd, 2015||44W, 0D||0.08%||99.74%||0.08%||99.74%||30.8%||-%||-%||-%|
|Saturday October 24th, 2015||44W, 1D||0.06%||99.81%||0.06%||99.81%||31.6%||-%||-%||-%|
|Sunday October 25th, 2015||44W, 2D||0.04%||99.87%||0.04%||99.87%||30.8%||-%||-%||-%|
All percentages are estimates based on mathematical averages and should not be taken terribly seriously... just because you only have 5% chance of going into labor two weeks early, that doesn't mean you should schedule a trip to the bahamas that weekend (see xkcd to get what I mean here).
You should (obviously) listen to your doctor or midwife on all matters related to pregnancy and childbirth. Just because this chart tells you that a 42W pregnant woman has a high chance of delivering in the next seven days, it doesn't mean it's healthy for her to be pregnant for seven more days. If your doctor wants to increase probability of delivery by inducing labor, there's probably a good reason.
Finding good distribution statistics on spontaneous labor is interesting. I have not found a study with an exact daily breakdown of when babies are born. However I have read way too much on this topic, so I can tell you that my favorite published research is The length of human pregnancy as calculated by ultrasonographic measurement of the fetal biparietal diameter (H. Kieler, O. Axelsson, S. Nilsson, U. Waldenströ) which a very nice table of 10 published studies, which found various means between 272-283 days. The study contributes their own results as well, analyzing nearly 2000 mothers who went into labor spontaneously, and there's graphs of what they found. They found a mean around 280 days, and standard deviations between 8-11 days. There's a big list of other studies and answers in the Introduction to my due date survey results.
Which leads to this topic... I am also in the process of collecting my own statistics. If you have had a baby, please take my due date survey. Oddly enough, the numbers I've collected so far support my messy hunch that pregnancy length has a 40-week mean and 9-10 day standard deviation. So go me.
Anyway if you have better research, drop me an e-mail (email@example.com).
Charts are generated by flot.
word to the wise though about summer babies - boob sunburn!!
Ok, THAT is a valid reason to cover up. Ouch!!!
I'm finding it interesting that some people I've encountered (online) presume that if they know one of your pregnancy or parenting preferences or opinions, they can extrapolate them all. For example, in discussing pain relief options recently, after expressing my desire not to have an epidural it was also assumed that I would forego vaccinations for my child and would be automatically pro home VBAC. When I made it clear that this wasn't the case, people were more annoyed than they would have been had I just said I wanted an epidural. There seems to be a really odd sort of tribalism around many of these choices, and a strange playground mentality whereby you can't deviate from the 'norm' (made harder to navigate because different groups have very different norms). For me, my preference to go without an epidural is not out of any desire to have a more natural experience but more because I want to be able to walk around and I find the idea of having a catheter just horrible. That doesn't mean that I judge anyone else's choices or motives that differ from mine, though. I do think it's worth remembering that people may make identical choices for very different reasons.
the understanding that when people buy gifts, it's their way of saying "hey, this says something about me, I want your kid to have it because we have a relationship." two ways.
Except sometimes those gifts are inappropriate. Part of me feels a lot of sympathy for these parents because what can I do with gifted clothing that is already too small for my kid except pass them on? What can I do with gifts that conflict with my personal beliefs, like a racist book that I don't want to inflict on anyone else either?
^I agree with that!
Part of "gender neutral" parenting is supplying the side of things that doesn't get given by other people.
First 2 were on purpose, 3rd kinda not so much, 4th was totally an oops (when you think things are broken, they have this habit of fixing themselves). Made sure we were done after that. Aside from that, we knew we'd have at least 2, likely 3, but the timing was not at all what we thought we were "planning". Such is life.
I'm fully prepared for all plans to go out the window - the ultimate goal will be sleeping (for everyone) so if we have to add the 'co', so be it.
We've found relatively like-minded parents in the following ways:
-We went to undergrad at a liberal arts college and most of our alumni friends live in town still.
-I worked for 5 years at a charter school that was "girl-focused" (meaning, it was a girls school and any student who identified as a girl -- either biologically or socially -- could attend as long as they were cool with being part of a community of girls). Deconstructing sexism, heterosexism and racism was part of our mission and so the staff was very like-minded in this regard.
That's where virtually all my local, like-minded parents came from. Our church is pretty open-minded too. I don't know that I've ever seen a boy in a dress there, but I can't really imagine anyone batting an eye if we did. Certainly lots of boys playing with dolls and girls with trucks in the nursery.
When my own parents were in this position, they started a "non-sexist parenting group." Basically, they found ONE family who felt the same way, that family knew another, etc. They built a community intentionally by voicing out loud that that was what they wanted and spreading the word. They also found a lot of like-minded people through church. We are hippy-church and hippy-daycare/school people, so that helps.
Spacefem's husband no longer speaking Spanish and Nachos no longer speaking Dutch, I think are great examples of lacking motivation. Likewise, I had mentioned that my kid is unlikely to pick up Swedish, despite 10% of the population being native Swedish speakers, Swedish being one of the offical languages and therefore alongside Finnish everywhere, and having a Swedish speaking uncle.???
How can you tell who has been vaccinated or not?
That's the tricky part, you can't really. So unless the parents say something you never actually know.
Thanks, I love the part about not being able to lower the tray table all the way I never would have thought of that.
Normally, my doctor said not to do aspirin or ibuprofen for pain relief, but only tylenol (acetemenophen) and even that only if -absolutely- needed after trying other remedies (like heat pack, cold pack, resting with lights closed eyes shut, etc). But the directions for flying specifically say to take one baby aspirin (81mg) a day for three days before the flight as well as the day of the flight to prevent blood clots. My guess is the risk of such a small dose is outweighed by the benefit of not getting blood clots for this particular situation.
I fretted way too much about this.
Finland is one of the countries in the world with an approved name list. People can deviate from the list, but then they need to participate in bureacracy. Foreigners often get approval for names from their home culture, but as someone from the U.S., I'm not sure how straightforward it is to say "this cultural name appropriately represents my culture". Do I pick the cultures of my ancestors or modern U.S. conglomeration?
We went with approved names, but not the Swedish ones because my spouse felt weird giving a Swedish name without Swedish heritage. The Swedish names would have been most easily recognizable for my family.
Our main criteria ended up including:
I could pronounce it
we didn't hate the way Americans would pronounce it
We had to eliminate one contender because I sometimes mispronounced it, turning the name into a word that meant "failure".
I definitely agree on the flexibility of where to meet. It makes a huge difference when you aren't stressed about your kid in a public place. Recently, I went to a tea shop with my daughter. Not only was the layout of the seating area very conducive to letting a toddler walk around a bit while still keeping a close eye on her, but there was plenty of room for my stroller and plenty of available tables. That is rare! It wasn't a huge space, but it was just laid out well for what we needed. I will definitely be suggesting it the next time a friend asks if we can get together. Let your parent friends choose the location! They know which places have changing tables and room to park a stroller.
And that includes parents too - I try to always ask "can I have a hug/kiss" rather than "give me a hug/kiss" and that she can always always say no if she doesn't want to, even with me. (She's old enough now that I've had enough practice that even writing "give me a hug" sounds weird to me)
Also I think on a more general level it's good to practice asking these kinds of questions anyway. Not just for abuse, but in general if you want to know what's going on in their life. Asking "how was school" gets an "I dunno" even now, but asking more specific things like "What was something funny that happened today" or "What did you do at recess?" really gets her talking more. Not sure where I read that, but the kinds of questions above made me think that sometimes just asking a better question will help get at what you want to know more than asking generalities.
The other thing is definitely definitely not making judgment on those things that they're saying. Instead try "What did you think about that