This table attempts to estimate your probability of going into labor on different individual days based on your estimated due date. If you don't know your due date, or just want a handy daily page to tell you where you're at, use the pregnancy calendar.
It's based on the idea that the average pregnancy lasts 40 weeks with a standard deviation of about 10 days. This means you're more likely to go into labor on one of the days close to your due date. For instance, about half of all babies are born within a week of their date. Scroll to the bottom of this page if you want to know more about where I got these numbers.
The following dates are based on an estimated due date of January 15th, 2014.
|Date||Progress||Overall probability of
|Current probability of
|probability of a pregnant woman at this stage going into labor|
|On this date||By this date||On this date||By this date||On this date||Within 3 days||Within 5 days||Within 7 days|
|Wednesday December 11th, 2013||35W, 0D||0.01%||0.02%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.1%||0.2%|
|Thursday December 12th, 2013||35W, 1D||0.01%||0.03%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.2%||0.3%|
|Friday December 13th, 2013||35W, 2D||0.02%||0.05%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.2%||0.4%|
|Saturday December 14th, 2013||35W, 3D||0.02%||0.07%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.3%||0.6%|
|Sunday December 15th, 2013||35W, 4D||0.03%||0.1%||-%||-%||-%||0.2%||0.4%||0.7%|
|Monday December 16th, 2013||35W, 5D||0.04%||0.13%||-%||-%||-%||0.2%||0.5%||0.9%|
|Tuesday December 17th, 2013||35W, 6D||0.06%||0.19%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.3%||0.6%||1.2%|
|Wednesday December 18th, 2013||36W, 0D||0.08%||0.26%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.4%||0.8%||1.5%|
|Thursday December 19th, 2013||36W, 1D||0.1%||0.35%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.5%||1%||1.9%|
|Friday December 20th, 2013||36W, 2D||0.14%||0.47%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.6%||1.3%||2.4%|
|Saturday December 21st, 2013||36W, 3D||0.18%||0.62%||-%||-%||0.2%||0.8%||1.7%||3%|
|Sunday December 22nd, 2013||36W, 4D||0.22%||0.82%||-%||-%||0.2%||1%||2.1%||3.7%|
|Monday December 23rd, 2013||36W, 5D||0.28%||1.07%||-%||-%||0.3%||1.2%||2.5%||4.5%|
|Tuesday December 24th, 2013||36W, 6D||0.35%||1.39%||-%||-%||0.4%||1.5%||3.1%||5.4%|
|Wednesday December 25th, 2013||37W, 0D||0.44%||1.79%||-%||-%||0.4%||1.8%||3.8%||6.4%|
|Thursday December 26th, 2013||37W, 1D||0.54%||2.28%||-%||-%||0.6%||2.2%||4.5%||7.6%|
|Friday December 27th, 2013||37W, 2D||0.66%||2.87%||-%||-%||0.7%||2.7%||5.4%||8.9%|
|Saturday December 28th, 2013||37W, 3D||0.79%||3.59%||-%||-%||0.8%||3.2%||6.3%||10.4%|
|Sunday December 29th, 2013||37W, 4D||0.94%||4.46%||-%||-%||1%||3.8%||7.4%||11.9%|
|Monday December 30th, 2013||37W, 5D||1.11%||5.48%||-%||-%||1.2%||4.4%||8.6%||13.7%|
|Tuesday December 31st, 2013||37W, 6D||1.3%||6.68%||-%||-%||1.4%||5.2%||9.8%||15.5%|
|Wednesday January 1st, 2014||38W, 0D||1.5%||8.08%||-%||-%||1.6%||6%||11.2%||17.5%|
|Thursday January 2nd, 2014||38W, 1D||1.71%||9.68%||-%||-%||1.9%||6.9%||12.7%||19.7%|
|Friday January 3rd, 2014||38W, 2D||1.94%||11.51%||-%||-%||2.2%||7.8%||14.3%||21.9%|
|Saturday January 4th, 2014||38W, 3D||2.18%||13.57%||-%||-%||2.5%||8.8%||16%||24.2%|
|Sunday January 5th, 2014||38W, 4D||2.42%||15.87%||-%||-%||2.9%||9.9%||17.8%||26.6%|
|Monday January 6th, 2014||38W, 5D||2.66%||18.41%||-%||-%||3.3%||11.1%||19.7%||29%|
|Tuesday January 7th, 2014||38W, 6D||2.9%||21.19%||-%||-%||3.7%||12.3%||21.6%||31.5%|
|Wednesday January 8th, 2014||39W, 0D||3.12%||24.2%||-%||-%||4.1%||13.5%||23.6%||34%|
|Thursday January 9th, 2014||39W, 1D||3.33%||27.43%||-%||-%||4.6%||14.9%||25.6%||36.6%|
|Friday January 10th, 2014||39W, 2D||3.52%||30.85%||-%||-%||5.1%||16.2%||27.7%||39.2%|
|Saturday January 11th, 2014||39W, 3D||3.68%||34.46%||-%||-%||5.6%||17.6%||29.8%||41.7%|
|Sunday January 12th, 2014||39W, 4D||3.81%||38.21%||-%||-%||6.2%||19.1%||31.9%||44.2%|
|Monday January 13th, 2014||39W, 5D||3.91%||42.07%||-%||-%||6.7%||20.6%||34%||46.7%|
|Tuesday January 14th, 2014||39W, 6D||3.97%||46.02%||-%||-%||7.4%||22.1%||36.2%||49.2%|
|Wednesday January 15th, 2014||40W, 0D||3.99%||50%||-%||-%||8%||23.6%||38.3%||51.6%|
|Thursday January 16th, 2014||40W, 1D||3.97%||53.98%||-%||-%||8.6%||25.1%||40.4%||54%|
|Friday January 17th, 2014||40W, 2D||3.91%||57.93%||-%||-%||9.3%||26.7%||42.5%||56.2%|
|Saturday January 18th, 2014||40W, 3D||3.81%||61.79%||-%||-%||10%||28.2%||44.5%||58.5%|
|Sunday January 19th, 2014||40W, 4D||3.68%||65.54%||-%||-%||10.7%||29.8%||46.6%||60.6%|
|Monday January 20th, 2014||40W, 5D||3.52%||69.15%||-%||-%||11.4%||31.3%||48.6%||62.7%|
|Tuesday January 21st, 2014||40W, 6D||3.33%||72.57%||-%||-%||12.1%||32.9%||50.5%||64.7%|
|Wednesday January 22nd, 2014||41W, 0D||3.12%||75.8%||-%||-%||12.9%||34.4%||52.4%||66.6%|
|Thursday January 23rd, 2014||41W, 1D||2.9%||78.81%||-%||-%||13.7%||36%||54.3%||68.5%|
|Friday January 24th, 2014||41W, 2D||2.66%||81.59%||-%||-%||14.4%||37.5%||56.1%||70.2%|
|Saturday January 25th, 2014||41W, 3D||2.42%||84.13%||-%||-%||15.2%||39%||57.9%||71.9%|
|Sunday January 26th, 2014||41W, 4D||2.18%||86.43%||-%||-%||16.1%||40.5%||59.6%||73.5%|
|Monday January 27th, 2014||41W, 5D||1.94%||88.49%||-%||-%||16.9%||42%||61.3%||75.1%|
|Tuesday January 28th, 2014||41W, 6D||1.71%||90.32%||-%||-%||17.7%||43.4%||62.9%||76.4%|
|Wednesday January 29th, 2014||42W, 0D||1.5%||91.92%||-%||-%||18.6%||44.8%||64.5%||77.8%|
|Thursday January 30th, 2014||42W, 1D||1.3%||93.32%||-%||-%||19.5%||46.3%||65.9%||79.2%|
|Friday January 31st, 2014||42W, 2D||1.11%||94.52%||-%||-%||20.3%||47.6%||67.3%||80.5%|
|Saturday February 1st, 2014||42W, 3D||0.94%||95.54%||-%||-%||21.1%||48.9%||68.8%||81.6%|
|Sunday February 2nd, 2014||42W, 4D||0.79%||96.41%||-%||-%||22%||50.1%||70.2%||82.7%|
|Monday February 3rd, 2014||42W, 5D||0.66%||97.13%||-%||-%||23%||51.6%||71.4%||83.6%|
|Tuesday February 4th, 2014||42W, 6D||0.54%||97.72%||-%||-%||23.7%||53.1%||72.8%||84.6%|
|Wednesday February 5th, 2014||43W, 0D||0.44%||98.21%||-%||-%||24.6%||54.2%||73.7%||85.5%|
|Thursday February 6th, 2014||43W, 1D||0.35%||98.61%||-%||-%||25.2%||55.4%||74.8%||86.3%|
|Friday February 7th, 2014||43W, 2D||0.28%||98.93%||-%||-%||26.2%||56.1%||75.7%||87.9%|
|Saturday February 8th, 2014||43W, 3D||0.22%||99.18%||-%||-%||26.8%||57.3%||76.8%||-%|
|Sunday February 9th, 2014||43W, 4D||0.18%||99.38%||-%||-%||29%||58.1%||79%||-%|
|Monday February 10th, 2014||43W, 5D||0.14%||99.53%||-%||-%||29.8%||59.6%||-%||-%|
|Tuesday February 11th, 2014||43W, 6D||0.1%||99.65%||-%||-%||28.6%||62.9%||-%||-%|
|Wednesday February 12th, 2014||44W, 0D||0.08%||99.74%||-%||-%||30.8%||-%||-%||-%|
|Thursday February 13th, 2014||44W, 1D||0.06%||99.81%||-%||-%||31.6%||-%||-%||-%|
|Friday February 14th, 2014||44W, 2D||0.04%||99.87%||-%||-%||30.8%||-%||-%||-%|
All percentages are estimates based on mathematical averages and should not be taken terribly seriously... just because you only have 5% chance of going into labor two weeks early, that doesn't mean you should schedule a trip to the bahamas that weekend (see xkcd to get what I mean here).
You should (obviously) listen to your doctor or midwife on all matters related to pregnancy and childbirth. Just because this chart tells you that a 42W pregnant woman has a high chance of delivering in the next seven days, it doesn't mean it's healthy for her to be pregnant for seven more days. If your doctor wants to increase probability of delivery by inducing labor, there's probably a good reason.
Finding good distribution statistics on spontaneous labor is interesting. I have not found a study with an exact daily breakdown of when babies are born. However I have read way too much on this topic, so I can tell you that my favorite published research is The length of human pregnancy as calculated by ultrasonographic measurement of the fetal biparietal diameter (H. Kieler, O. Axelsson, S. Nilsson, U. WaldenstrÃ¶) which a very nice table of 10 published studies, which found various means between 272-283 days. The study contributes their own results as well, analyzing nearly 2000 mothers who went into labor spontaneously, and there's graphs of what they found. They found a mean around 280 days, and standard deviations between 8-11 days. There's a big list of other studies and answers in the Introduction to my due date survey results.
Which leads to this topic... I am also in the process of collecting my own statistics. If you have had a baby, please take my due date survey. Oddly enough, the numbers I've collected so far support my messy hunch that pregnancy length has a 40-week mean and 9-10 day standard deviation. So go me.
Anyway if you have better research, drop me an e-mail (email@example.com).
Charts are generated by flot.
Like soacefem, I did some googling to figure out what it was.
The first part, anout talking to your child, made me ho, "Okay, yeah. S'cool." I think most people (that I know) do that anyway, and communicating with your child, at every stage of life, is important.
Then, I ran across this gem in the Huffington Post:
At this point, my eyes rolled so hard they almost fell out of my head.
If you can make oarenting like that work for you, nifty! But, in my experience, that would just be impractical nonsense. At no point do I think swaddling my children was "disrrspectful." Mostly because, you know, it soothed them. And that's what most people try to do -- soothe their babies, not try to "make him zone out and stop annoying them." Same thing with swings and bouncers. They were only in strollers/baby carriers until the started to walk, for practicality sake since neither my husband or I could hold them all the time since, you know, we needed our hands to do other things.
I'm definitely in the "happy healthy child is my only goal" camp. I know some people who are superstars in their chosen fields. From what I can tell, being a superstar is completely exhausting and often really psychologically taxing. So if my kid isn't naturally inclined that way, I certainly don't intend to push them.
If I'm hoping for anything, I hope they'll end up being a quirky artsy/techy type like just about everyone else in the family. But my brother's a corporate lawyer and I love him anyway, so even if our kid turns out to be a white sheep, they'll just bond with Uncle A and it'll all be fine.
I hated breastfeeding, couldn't seem to make "enough" while pumping (looking back on it I think there may have been something wrong with the pump parts), and by the time it was a year I was done. And then by the time he was 16 months I tried to coax him back on because I missed it so much and loved him so much. But, although curious at first, he literally shook his head at me. :-(
A parent in my Kindergarten class would bring us homemade purple play dough that smelled like grape!
Thanks! I was going to put my labor story in Random but never got around to it. I can try to do it soon - it's written out already so just a matter of editing.
Yes you must! I'm happy to hear from you, hope everything went and is going well
Mine started walking. SO not ready for two kids running around getting into things.
Stay little longer!
Eek and here I was about to say this felt like a tame version of Mother Lover.
We used/still use our diaper bag quite a lot.
For our little guy's first year of life we were urban dwellers and I would often go out for half a day at a time. I would take a diaper for every hour I planned to be out of the house plus one, which was too much for the clutch. I needed a change pad, since he was often changed in nasty places, wipes, hand sanitizer (for changes away from running water), Kleenex, and disposal bags. He needed spare clothes, I needed a spare shirt (discovered after an emergency, useful many times afterwards), and it was useful to have a plastic bag for clothes which were victims of a diaper explosion. For longer days out I would bring two spares for him (and did have days where I used both). I would also have a nursing cover and a blanket in there. We also had a stroller cover for napping which was quite handy when we were taking the stroller as opposed to a carrier. And then there was my stuff, like my wallet, phone, lip balm, keys, granola bar, etc... I did pack the camera, and was often glad for it. Nearly all of our first year pics were from our little excursions.
Thanks for the tips. It's not so much getting to sleep that's the problem, it's staying that way that is causing the issue - too many things waking me up. I seem to be in a bit of a pattern now of alternating good and bad nights, which I guess I can live with. Meanwhile, Netflix is getting a damn good workout in the early hours.
Thanks, I love the part about not being able to lower the tray table all the way I never would have thought of that.
Normally, my doctor said not to do aspirin or ibuprofen for pain relief, but only tylenol (acetemenophen) and even that only if -absolutely- needed after trying other remedies (like heat pack, cold pack, resting with lights closed eyes shut, etc). But the directions for flying specifically say to take one baby aspirin (81mg) a day for three days before the flight as well as the day of the flight to prevent blood clots. My guess is the risk of such a small dose is outweighed by the benefit of not getting blood clots for this particular situation.
In my experience "real" contractions are pretty much the whole uterus (top, bottom and lower back). I remember reading somewhere that the ones that get you dilated from 0-7/8 cm are largely the muscles pulling up, trying to stretch the cervix out. As a result many people largely do feel them most strongly at the top of their belly. Whether you feel them strongly in your back or not depends on how the baby is positioned. If you've heard the term "back labor" that usually happens if the back of the baby's head is pressed up against your spine (less common than when the baby's face is on the spine). The contractions that take you from 7 or 8 cm to 10 - i.e. the ones in the part of labor known as "transition" - do tend to be lower down (and also more painful). That said, I think there is A LOT of variation in experience...
I am actually a big fan of the wonder weeks. I found it better than most popular level books looking at infant development. My son was right on the clock for the fussy/happy times, and it was interesting to look for the new skills that I might not have noticed if I hadn't been watching for them.
On the other hand, I stumbled upon this accidentally, so didn't have any hype surrounding it. I also read the author biographies before picking up the book, so took everything with a grain of salt knowing that 1) the authors specialized in chimpanzees, not humans, and developed their theories based on chimps; 2) the bulk of the research is greater than 20 years old and so much of the book is out-dated; and 3) given #'s 1&2, incidental parenting advice had to be filtered.
That said, I still found the book useful and regularly recommend it to people.
Sorry to CPR a dying thread, but I came across this, and thought I'd share.
http://www.henriettes-herb.com/blog/pos ... ssion.html
Pre and post-partum depression have similar reasons, physically speaking. Check nutrition first.
I'm finding it interesting that some people I've encountered (online) presume that if they know one of your pregnancy or parenting preferences or opinions, they can extrapolate them all. For example, in discussing pain relief options recently, after expressing my desire not to have an epidural it was also assumed that I would forego vaccinations for my child and would be automatically pro home VBAC. When I made it clear that this wasn't the case, people were more annoyed than they would have been had I just said I wanted an epidural. There seems to be a really odd sort of tribalism around many of these choices, and a strange playground mentality whereby you can't deviate from the 'norm' (made harder to navigate because different groups have very different norms). For me, my preference to go without an epidural is not out of any desire to have a more natural experience but more because I want to be able to walk around and I find the idea of having a catheter just horrible. That doesn't mean that I judge anyone else's choices or motives that differ from mine, though. I do think it's worth remembering that people may make identical choices for very different reasons.