This table attempts to estimate your probability of going into labor on different individual days based on your estimated due date. If you don't know your due date, or just want a handy daily page to tell you where you're at, use the pregnancy calendar.
It's based on the idea that the average pregnancy lasts 40 weeks with a standard deviation of about 10 days. This means you're more likely to go into labor on one of the days close to your due date. For instance, about half of all babies are born within a week of their date. Scroll to the bottom of this page if you want to know more about where I got these numbers.
The following dates are based on an estimated due date of January 15th, 2016.
|Date||Progress||Overall probability of
|Current probability of
|probability of a pregnant woman at this stage going into labor|
|On this date||By this date||On this date||By this date||On this date||Within 3 days||Within 5 days||Within 7 days|
|Friday December 11th, 2015||35W, 0D||0.01%||0.02%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.1%||0.2%|
|Saturday December 12th, 2015||35W, 1D||0.01%||0.03%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.2%||0.3%|
|Sunday December 13th, 2015||35W, 2D||0.02%||0.05%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.2%||0.4%|
|Monday December 14th, 2015||35W, 3D||0.02%||0.07%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.3%||0.6%|
|Tuesday December 15th, 2015||35W, 4D||0.03%||0.1%||-%||-%||-%||0.2%||0.4%||0.7%|
|Wednesday December 16th, 2015||35W, 5D||0.04%||0.13%||-%||-%||-%||0.2%||0.5%||0.9%|
|Thursday December 17th, 2015||35W, 6D||0.06%||0.19%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.3%||0.6%||1.2%|
|Friday December 18th, 2015||36W, 0D||0.08%||0.26%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.4%||0.8%||1.5%|
|Saturday December 19th, 2015||36W, 1D||0.1%||0.35%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.5%||1%||1.9%|
|Sunday December 20th, 2015||36W, 2D||0.14%||0.47%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.6%||1.3%||2.4%|
|Monday December 21st, 2015||36W, 3D||0.18%||0.62%||-%||-%||0.2%||0.8%||1.7%||3%|
|Tuesday December 22nd, 2015||36W, 4D||0.22%||0.82%||-%||-%||0.2%||1%||2.1%||3.7%|
|Wednesday December 23rd, 2015||36W, 5D||0.28%||1.07%||-%||-%||0.3%||1.2%||2.5%||4.5%|
|Thursday December 24th, 2015||36W, 6D||0.35%||1.39%||-%||-%||0.4%||1.5%||3.1%||5.4%|
|Friday December 25th, 2015||37W, 0D||0.44%||1.79%||-%||-%||0.4%||1.8%||3.8%||6.4%|
|Saturday December 26th, 2015||37W, 1D||0.54%||2.28%||-%||-%||0.6%||2.2%||4.5%||7.6%|
|Sunday December 27th, 2015||37W, 2D||0.66%||2.87%||-%||-%||0.7%||2.7%||5.4%||8.9%|
|Monday December 28th, 2015||37W, 3D||0.79%||3.59%||-%||-%||0.8%||3.2%||6.3%||10.4%|
|Tuesday December 29th, 2015||37W, 4D||0.94%||4.46%||-%||-%||1%||3.8%||7.4%||11.9%|
|Wednesday December 30th, 2015||37W, 5D||1.11%||5.48%||-%||-%||1.2%||4.4%||8.6%||13.7%|
|Thursday December 31st, 2015||37W, 6D||1.3%||6.68%||-%||-%||1.4%||5.2%||9.8%||15.5%|
|Friday January 1st, 2016||38W, 0D||1.5%||8.08%||-%||-%||1.6%||6%||11.2%||17.5%|
|Saturday January 2nd, 2016||38W, 1D||1.71%||9.68%||-%||-%||1.9%||6.9%||12.7%||19.7%|
|Sunday January 3rd, 2016||38W, 2D||1.94%||11.51%||-%||-%||2.2%||7.8%||14.3%||21.9%|
|Monday January 4th, 2016||38W, 3D||2.18%||13.57%||-%||-%||2.5%||8.8%||16%||24.2%|
|Tuesday January 5th, 2016||38W, 4D||2.42%||15.87%||-%||-%||2.9%||9.9%||17.8%||26.6%|
|Wednesday January 6th, 2016||38W, 5D||2.66%||18.41%||-%||-%||3.3%||11.1%||19.7%||29%|
|Thursday January 7th, 2016||38W, 6D||2.9%||21.19%||-%||-%||3.7%||12.3%||21.6%||31.5%|
|Friday January 8th, 2016||39W, 0D||3.12%||24.2%||-%||-%||4.1%||13.5%||23.6%||34%|
|Saturday January 9th, 2016||39W, 1D||3.33%||27.43%||-%||-%||4.6%||14.9%||25.6%||36.6%|
|Sunday January 10th, 2016||39W, 2D||3.52%||30.85%||-%||-%||5.1%||16.2%||27.7%||39.2%|
|Monday January 11th, 2016||39W, 3D||3.68%||34.46%||-%||-%||5.6%||17.6%||29.8%||41.7%|
|Tuesday January 12th, 2016||39W, 4D||3.81%||38.21%||-%||-%||6.2%||19.1%||31.9%||44.2%|
|Wednesday January 13th, 2016||39W, 5D||3.91%||42.07%||-%||-%||6.7%||20.6%||34%||46.7%|
|Thursday January 14th, 2016||39W, 6D||3.97%||46.02%||-%||-%||7.4%||22.1%||36.2%||49.2%|
|Friday January 15th, 2016||40W, 0D||3.99%||50%||-%||-%||8%||23.6%||38.3%||51.6%|
|Saturday January 16th, 2016||40W, 1D||3.97%||53.98%||-%||-%||8.6%||25.1%||40.4%||54%|
|Sunday January 17th, 2016||40W, 2D||3.91%||57.93%||-%||-%||9.3%||26.7%||42.5%||56.2%|
|Monday January 18th, 2016||40W, 3D||3.81%||61.79%||-%||-%||10%||28.2%||44.5%||58.5%|
|Tuesday January 19th, 2016||40W, 4D||3.68%||65.54%||-%||-%||10.7%||29.8%||46.6%||60.6%|
|Wednesday January 20th, 2016||40W, 5D||3.52%||69.15%||-%||-%||11.4%||31.3%||48.6%||62.7%|
|Thursday January 21st, 2016||40W, 6D||3.33%||72.57%||-%||-%||12.1%||32.9%||50.5%||64.7%|
|Friday January 22nd, 2016||41W, 0D||3.12%||75.8%||-%||-%||12.9%||34.4%||52.4%||66.6%|
|Saturday January 23rd, 2016||41W, 1D||2.9%||78.81%||-%||-%||13.7%||36%||54.3%||68.5%|
|Sunday January 24th, 2016||41W, 2D||2.66%||81.59%||-%||-%||14.4%||37.5%||56.1%||70.2%|
|Monday January 25th, 2016||41W, 3D||2.42%||84.13%||-%||-%||15.2%||39%||57.9%||71.9%|
|Tuesday January 26th, 2016||41W, 4D||2.18%||86.43%||-%||-%||16.1%||40.5%||59.6%||73.5%|
|Wednesday January 27th, 2016||41W, 5D||1.94%||88.49%||-%||-%||16.9%||42%||61.3%||75.1%|
|Thursday January 28th, 2016||41W, 6D||1.71%||90.32%||-%||-%||17.7%||43.4%||62.9%||76.4%|
|Friday January 29th, 2016||42W, 0D||1.5%||91.92%||-%||-%||18.6%||44.8%||64.5%||77.8%|
|Saturday January 30th, 2016||42W, 1D||1.3%||93.32%||-%||-%||19.5%||46.3%||65.9%||79.2%|
|Sunday January 31st, 2016||42W, 2D||1.11%||94.52%||-%||-%||20.3%||47.6%||67.3%||80.5%|
|Monday February 1st, 2016||42W, 3D||0.94%||95.54%||-%||-%||21.1%||48.9%||68.8%||81.6%|
|Tuesday February 2nd, 2016||42W, 4D||0.79%||96.41%||-%||-%||22%||50.1%||70.2%||82.7%|
|Wednesday February 3rd, 2016||42W, 5D||0.66%||97.13%||-%||-%||23%||51.6%||71.4%||83.6%|
|Thursday February 4th, 2016||42W, 6D||0.54%||97.72%||-%||-%||23.7%||53.1%||72.8%||84.6%|
|Friday February 5th, 2016||43W, 0D||0.44%||98.21%||-%||-%||24.6%||54.2%||73.7%||85.5%|
|Saturday February 6th, 2016||43W, 1D||0.35%||98.61%||-%||-%||25.2%||55.4%||74.8%||86.3%|
|Sunday February 7th, 2016||43W, 2D||0.28%||98.93%||-%||-%||26.2%||56.1%||75.7%||87.9%|
|Monday February 8th, 2016||43W, 3D||0.22%||99.18%||-%||-%||26.8%||57.3%||76.8%||-%|
|Tuesday February 9th, 2016||43W, 4D||0.18%||99.38%||-%||-%||29%||58.1%||79%||-%|
|Wednesday February 10th, 2016||43W, 5D||0.14%||99.53%||-%||-%||29.8%||59.6%||-%||-%|
|Thursday February 11th, 2016||43W, 6D||0.1%||99.65%||-%||-%||28.6%||62.9%||-%||-%|
|Friday February 12th, 2016||44W, 0D||0.08%||99.74%||-%||-%||30.8%||-%||-%||-%|
|Saturday February 13th, 2016||44W, 1D||0.06%||99.81%||-%||-%||31.6%||-%||-%||-%|
|Sunday February 14th, 2016||44W, 2D||0.04%||99.87%||-%||-%||30.8%||-%||-%||-%|
All percentages are estimates based on mathematical averages and should not be taken terribly seriously... just because you only have 5% chance of going into labor two weeks early, that doesn't mean you should schedule a trip to the bahamas that weekend (see xkcd to get what I mean here).
You should (obviously) listen to your doctor or midwife on all matters related to pregnancy and childbirth. Just because this chart tells you that a 42W pregnant woman has a high chance of delivering in the next seven days, it doesn't mean it's healthy for her to be pregnant for seven more days. If your doctor wants to increase probability of delivery by inducing labor, there's probably a good reason.
Finding good distribution statistics on spontaneous labor is interesting. I have not found a study with an exact daily breakdown of when babies are born. However I have read way too much on this topic, so I can tell you that my favorite published research is The length of human pregnancy as calculated by ultrasonographic measurement of the fetal biparietal diameter (H. Kieler, O. Axelsson, S. Nilsson, U. Waldenströ) which a very nice table of 10 published studies, which found various means between 272-283 days. The study contributes their own results as well, analyzing nearly 2000 mothers who went into labor spontaneously, and there's graphs of what they found. They found a mean around 280 days, and standard deviations between 8-11 days. There's a big list of other studies and answers in the Introduction to my due date survey results.
Which leads to this topic... I am also in the process of collecting my own statistics. If you have had a baby, please take my due date survey. Oddly enough, the numbers I've collected so far support my messy hunch that pregnancy length has a 40-week mean and 9-10 day standard deviation. So go me.
Anyway if you have better research, drop me an e-mail (firstname.lastname@example.org).
Charts are generated by flot.
^ To your final question, maybe that would be true to some extent. But that makes me ask a different question:
to what extent is redshirting necessary because of the relative age of any members of a class (like, whether you're the *youngest* or the *oldest*) and to what extent is it necessary because of their absolute age (not yet being 5 and therefore being more likely to be developmentally behind on average)?
Because if it's more the latter, then redshirting everyone born in September would just mean that kids are, on average, one month developmentally ahead entering kindergarten. The difference in their maturity might matter less if they meet a baseline for maturity. But if it's more the former, then the hockey metaphor comes into play, with younger kids perhaps still getting less "play" in class.
And I could easily see it being both: those kids might have slightly lesser disadvantages, but some disadvantages would remain.
I could see saunas becoming an obsession for a number of very social reasons as well, depending on your family's sauna practices. I honestly can't think of any common themes or rituals shared by all branches of my U.S. family, other than like eating together, but that seems too banal(/essential for survival) to really become an obsession. My Finnish family, on the other hand, all sauna as a social ritual. Whether or not you allow your kid in saunas yet, if there's a lot of exposure to the ritual, they could probably pick up on the social importance. It might make sense that kids are probably wired to pick up on things that the adults in their life think are important (**not a child psychologist**).
<...> I know I was super into the instant evaporation of water and associated *hissssss* the first time I was in a sauna at like age seven.
This is an excellent point. And although I know they exist, I haven't encountered any Finns who don't like sauna. There are a lot of steps to it. The kid gets to help their grandfather build the fire when we're together, knows that wood burning saunas are better than electric saunas, and absolutely loves the sound of the water hitting the hot stones. I can't imitate the sound as well as the kid does.
It's about teaching children to make love so that they do it themselves. Love has no age or genetic requirement. It's healthy for young siblings to make love, and it's unhealthy if they don't. Sexual repression of children fucks them up as adults. Because the parents are secretive about it, children get the idea that it's bad, which starts the process of sexual repression.
Gross. Yuck. Eww. I've run out of ways to express how disgusted I am with what you've said here. Ewwwwwww!!!!!!!
No, siblings should not make love. It is in our genetic interest that we don't do this. Ever. This is a cultural universal.
I think a big driver in getting them to read is to find stories that they like.
Definitely this. I once tutored a kid who had been held back twice in elementary school and was still a couple grade levels behind on reading skills. He was given a book from the
One of my cousins kids read the Warriors series and was really into it. She was bulllied in school, but I don't think it was instigated by her reading choices.
I don't know any recent books for this age group but I've heard great things about the Adventure Time comics.
It's a great point that the scales often tip in different directions at different times. I can see how I could provide opportunities for the first four categories, but how does someone go about encouraging gross motor skills? I was under the impression that out of all development, that one was sort of automatic, like physical growth.
Thank you! I'm currently stuck under 20lbs of sleeping baby because all day time naps have to be in my arms or they don't happen.
Mental health issues will never start to hurt, therefore no preemptive treatment is needed.
Mental health issues hurt, take it from me. There are many psychosomatic disorders out there which affect your body even though the real problem is in your mind. But to get better, you HAVE to treat both. Pre-emptive treatment also can stop some disorders from becoming too bad. And yes, sometimes drugs can be very very helpful.
I don't think you know what you're talking about and all this "I know because of divine intuition" bullshit is starting to piss me off. if you ask others for sources, be kind enough to provide some yourself.
If this thread continues to be shit-slinging, I will lock it.
It is wrong to lock horses in cages and breed them as if they are slaves.
I sincerely hope that you aren't condoning slavery with that implication that it isn't wrong to keep humans in cages and force them to "breed". It's probably just an unfortunate word choice.
I said it is wrong to put horses in cages and breed them as slaves. So I don't know how you read things. Frankly you are irritating me because I shouldn't have to explain how I said 2+2=4 when you are accusing me of saying 2+2=5. In this age people should have mastered how to read clearly and I shouldn't have to micromanage my text and clear what I have already layed out clearly for you.
To be fair, if the girl is a Female to Male transsexual, her hormones are not so important, at an old age Male hormones will mutate her body and have the same effect. But with boy's its more tragic and serious. Boys who want to be girls, must stop their toxic T at an early age, or else their face will be permanently ugly and bony
We sort of went middle-of-the-road. In the beginning, we had the sidecar cosleeper, and that worked great. Baby woke up a lot at night because he was a newborn, but I could pick him up, feed him, and put him back down without getting out of bed. He seemed to pretty much only be waking up if he was hungry, and settled pretty well after that, so all was good with the world (yes, there were nights when we'd have to get up and bounce on the yoga ball for a while, but we never had the horrific newborn nights that we seem to hear about where he was inconsolable at 2am). He started sleeping longer stretches and was sleeping one 8-9 hour stretch per night by the time he was two months old.
Around 3 months as he started getting more sensitive to noise, our nighttime rustlings would wake him up -- and if it wasn't my husband or me rustling it was the dog, who also sleeps in our room. It got to the point where I was so worried about someone waking him up that if I heard anyone moving in the night I'd instantly be alert and ready to murder someone if the baby woke up, and then even if the baby didn't wake up I was all keyed up and would have trouble falling back asleep. So for about a month, I moved myself to the floor of the baby's room. He transitioned easily into the crib, but I slept on the floor of his room every night and fed him when he woke up hungry.
My statement was meant to indicate that I'm not finished with my thoughts on this topic, rather than to create drama.
I believe parents in this world universally make a big mistake when it comes time to start thinking about their children using the toilet. Kids feel forced to do it, and this breeds resentment and damages their self-esteem. Having the father (the mother is needed in the battle against the patriarchy) stay home with the children and homeschool them while they haven't yet decided to train themselves is the way to avoid humiliation by their more-repressed peers.
I would also like to point out that limiting elimination to the toilet at any age creates situations where the person's health is compromised due to the lack of availability of a bathroom. In these situations, I strongly advise parents to let their children wear diapers no matter their age. Retention can lead to kidney stones, intestinal damage, urinary tract infections and harmful bacteria and toxins in the bloodstream.
FB pic is the best idea. All your friends and relatives can definitely post in comments or expressions . Consider yourself lucky to have many children. They are a blessing from God
I do find it very interesting to find that IKEA is recalling furniture because people don't secure it to walls... I was given anchors with all of the stuff I've bought from there. Though maybe that's only a somewhat recent thing? It was over a half a year ago that I bought stuff from there, though.
And I didn't use the anchors... I guess I am about to be an aunt and it might be a good idea to get that stuff secured in case I ever end up watching my niece here. Hadn't really worried about it prior because there was literally never going to be a time I'd have kids running around this place. The likelihood of my niece ever being here is pretty damn low too, but I wouldn't say 0%.