This table attempts to estimate your probability of going into labor on different individual days based on your estimated due date. If you don't know your due date, or just want a handy daily page to tell you where you're at, use the pregnancy calendar.
It's based on the idea that the average pregnancy lasts 40 weeks with a standard deviation of about 10 days. This means you're more likely to go into labor on one of the days close to your due date. For instance, about half of all babies are born within a week of their date. Scroll to the bottom of this page if you want to know more about where I got these numbers.
The following dates are based on an estimated due date of January 15th, 2014.
|Date||Progress||Overall probability of
|Current probability of
|probability of a pregnant woman at this stage going into labor|
|On this date||By this date||On this date||By this date||On this date||Within 3 days||Within 5 days||Within 7 days|
|Wednesday December 11th, 2013||35W, 0D||0.01%||0.02%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.1%||0.2%|
|Thursday December 12th, 2013||35W, 1D||0.01%||0.03%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.2%||0.3%|
|Friday December 13th, 2013||35W, 2D||0.02%||0.05%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.2%||0.4%|
|Saturday December 14th, 2013||35W, 3D||0.02%||0.07%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.3%||0.6%|
|Sunday December 15th, 2013||35W, 4D||0.03%||0.1%||-%||-%||-%||0.2%||0.4%||0.7%|
|Monday December 16th, 2013||35W, 5D||0.04%||0.13%||-%||-%||-%||0.2%||0.5%||0.9%|
|Tuesday December 17th, 2013||35W, 6D||0.06%||0.19%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.3%||0.6%||1.2%|
|Wednesday December 18th, 2013||36W, 0D||0.08%||0.26%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.4%||0.8%||1.5%|
|Thursday December 19th, 2013||36W, 1D||0.1%||0.35%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.5%||1%||1.9%|
|Friday December 20th, 2013||36W, 2D||0.14%||0.47%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.6%||1.3%||2.4%|
|Saturday December 21st, 2013||36W, 3D||0.18%||0.62%||-%||-%||0.2%||0.8%||1.7%||3%|
|Sunday December 22nd, 2013||36W, 4D||0.22%||0.82%||-%||-%||0.2%||1%||2.1%||3.7%|
|Monday December 23rd, 2013||36W, 5D||0.28%||1.07%||-%||-%||0.3%||1.2%||2.5%||4.5%|
|Tuesday December 24th, 2013||36W, 6D||0.35%||1.39%||-%||-%||0.4%||1.5%||3.1%||5.4%|
|Wednesday December 25th, 2013||37W, 0D||0.44%||1.79%||-%||-%||0.4%||1.8%||3.8%||6.4%|
|Thursday December 26th, 2013||37W, 1D||0.54%||2.28%||-%||-%||0.6%||2.2%||4.5%||7.6%|
|Friday December 27th, 2013||37W, 2D||0.66%||2.87%||-%||-%||0.7%||2.7%||5.4%||8.9%|
|Saturday December 28th, 2013||37W, 3D||0.79%||3.59%||-%||-%||0.8%||3.2%||6.3%||10.4%|
|Sunday December 29th, 2013||37W, 4D||0.94%||4.46%||-%||-%||1%||3.8%||7.4%||11.9%|
|Monday December 30th, 2013||37W, 5D||1.11%||5.48%||-%||-%||1.2%||4.4%||8.6%||13.7%|
|Tuesday December 31st, 2013||37W, 6D||1.3%||6.68%||-%||-%||1.4%||5.2%||9.8%||15.5%|
|Wednesday January 1st, 2014||38W, 0D||1.5%||8.08%||-%||-%||1.6%||6%||11.2%||17.5%|
|Thursday January 2nd, 2014||38W, 1D||1.71%||9.68%||-%||-%||1.9%||6.9%||12.7%||19.7%|
|Friday January 3rd, 2014||38W, 2D||1.94%||11.51%||-%||-%||2.2%||7.8%||14.3%||21.9%|
|Saturday January 4th, 2014||38W, 3D||2.18%||13.57%||-%||-%||2.5%||8.8%||16%||24.2%|
|Sunday January 5th, 2014||38W, 4D||2.42%||15.87%||-%||-%||2.9%||9.9%||17.8%||26.6%|
|Monday January 6th, 2014||38W, 5D||2.66%||18.41%||-%||-%||3.3%||11.1%||19.7%||29%|
|Tuesday January 7th, 2014||38W, 6D||2.9%||21.19%||-%||-%||3.7%||12.3%||21.6%||31.5%|
|Wednesday January 8th, 2014||39W, 0D||3.12%||24.2%||-%||-%||4.1%||13.5%||23.6%||34%|
|Thursday January 9th, 2014||39W, 1D||3.33%||27.43%||-%||-%||4.6%||14.9%||25.6%||36.6%|
|Friday January 10th, 2014||39W, 2D||3.52%||30.85%||-%||-%||5.1%||16.2%||27.7%||39.2%|
|Saturday January 11th, 2014||39W, 3D||3.68%||34.46%||-%||-%||5.6%||17.6%||29.8%||41.7%|
|Sunday January 12th, 2014||39W, 4D||3.81%||38.21%||-%||-%||6.2%||19.1%||31.9%||44.2%|
|Monday January 13th, 2014||39W, 5D||3.91%||42.07%||-%||-%||6.7%||20.6%||34%||46.7%|
|Tuesday January 14th, 2014||39W, 6D||3.97%||46.02%||-%||-%||7.4%||22.1%||36.2%||49.2%|
|Wednesday January 15th, 2014||40W, 0D||3.99%||50%||-%||-%||8%||23.6%||38.3%||51.6%|
|Thursday January 16th, 2014||40W, 1D||3.97%||53.98%||-%||-%||8.6%||25.1%||40.4%||54%|
|Friday January 17th, 2014||40W, 2D||3.91%||57.93%||-%||-%||9.3%||26.7%||42.5%||56.2%|
|Saturday January 18th, 2014||40W, 3D||3.81%||61.79%||-%||-%||10%||28.2%||44.5%||58.5%|
|Sunday January 19th, 2014||40W, 4D||3.68%||65.54%||-%||-%||10.7%||29.8%||46.6%||60.6%|
|Monday January 20th, 2014||40W, 5D||3.52%||69.15%||-%||-%||11.4%||31.3%||48.6%||62.7%|
|Tuesday January 21st, 2014||40W, 6D||3.33%||72.57%||-%||-%||12.1%||32.9%||50.5%||64.7%|
|Wednesday January 22nd, 2014||41W, 0D||3.12%||75.8%||-%||-%||12.9%||34.4%||52.4%||66.6%|
|Thursday January 23rd, 2014||41W, 1D||2.9%||78.81%||-%||-%||13.7%||36%||54.3%||68.5%|
|Friday January 24th, 2014||41W, 2D||2.66%||81.59%||-%||-%||14.4%||37.5%||56.1%||70.2%|
|Saturday January 25th, 2014||41W, 3D||2.42%||84.13%||-%||-%||15.2%||39%||57.9%||71.9%|
|Sunday January 26th, 2014||41W, 4D||2.18%||86.43%||-%||-%||16.1%||40.5%||59.6%||73.5%|
|Monday January 27th, 2014||41W, 5D||1.94%||88.49%||-%||-%||16.9%||42%||61.3%||75.1%|
|Tuesday January 28th, 2014||41W, 6D||1.71%||90.32%||-%||-%||17.7%||43.4%||62.9%||76.4%|
|Wednesday January 29th, 2014||42W, 0D||1.5%||91.92%||-%||-%||18.6%||44.8%||64.5%||77.8%|
|Thursday January 30th, 2014||42W, 1D||1.3%||93.32%||-%||-%||19.5%||46.3%||65.9%||79.2%|
|Friday January 31st, 2014||42W, 2D||1.11%||94.52%||-%||-%||20.3%||47.6%||67.3%||80.5%|
|Saturday February 1st, 2014||42W, 3D||0.94%||95.54%||-%||-%||21.1%||48.9%||68.8%||81.6%|
|Sunday February 2nd, 2014||42W, 4D||0.79%||96.41%||-%||-%||22%||50.1%||70.2%||82.7%|
|Monday February 3rd, 2014||42W, 5D||0.66%||97.13%||-%||-%||23%||51.6%||71.4%||83.6%|
|Tuesday February 4th, 2014||42W, 6D||0.54%||97.72%||-%||-%||23.7%||53.1%||72.8%||84.6%|
|Wednesday February 5th, 2014||43W, 0D||0.44%||98.21%||-%||-%||24.6%||54.2%||73.7%||85.5%|
|Thursday February 6th, 2014||43W, 1D||0.35%||98.61%||-%||-%||25.2%||55.4%||74.8%||86.3%|
|Friday February 7th, 2014||43W, 2D||0.28%||98.93%||-%||-%||26.2%||56.1%||75.7%||87.9%|
|Saturday February 8th, 2014||43W, 3D||0.22%||99.18%||-%||-%||26.8%||57.3%||76.8%||-%|
|Sunday February 9th, 2014||43W, 4D||0.18%||99.38%||-%||-%||29%||58.1%||79%||-%|
|Monday February 10th, 2014||43W, 5D||0.14%||99.53%||-%||-%||29.8%||59.6%||-%||-%|
|Tuesday February 11th, 2014||43W, 6D||0.1%||99.65%||-%||-%||28.6%||62.9%||-%||-%|
|Wednesday February 12th, 2014||44W, 0D||0.08%||99.74%||-%||-%||30.8%||-%||-%||-%|
|Thursday February 13th, 2014||44W, 1D||0.06%||99.81%||-%||-%||31.6%||-%||-%||-%|
|Friday February 14th, 2014||44W, 2D||0.04%||99.87%||-%||-%||30.8%||-%||-%||-%|
All percentages are estimates based on mathematical averages and should not be taken terribly seriously... just because you only have 5% chance of going into labor two weeks early, that doesn't mean you should schedule a trip to the bahamas that weekend (see xkcd to get what I mean here).
You should (obviously) listen to your doctor or midwife on all matters related to pregnancy and childbirth. Just because this chart tells you that a 42W pregnant woman has a high chance of delivering in the next seven days, it doesn't mean it's healthy for her to be pregnant for seven more days. If your doctor wants to increase probability of delivery by inducing labor, there's probably a good reason.
Finding good distribution statistics on spontaneous labor is interesting. I have not found a study with an exact daily breakdown of when babies are born. However I have read way too much on this topic, so I can tell you that my favorite published research is The length of human pregnancy as calculated by ultrasonographic measurement of the fetal biparietal diameter (H. Kieler, O. Axelsson, S. Nilsson, U. Waldenströ) which a very nice table of 10 published studies, which found various means between 272-283 days. The study contributes their own results as well, analyzing nearly 2000 mothers who went into labor spontaneously, and there's graphs of what they found. They found a mean around 280 days, and standard deviations between 8-11 days. There's a big list of other studies and answers in the Introduction to my due date survey results.
Which leads to this topic... I am also in the process of collecting my own statistics. If you have had a baby, please take my due date survey. Oddly enough, the numbers I've collected so far support my messy hunch that pregnancy length has a 40-week mean and 9-10 day standard deviation. So go me.
Anyway if you have better research, drop me an e-mail (email@example.com).
Charts are generated by flot.
Well, I can completely agree with AUM. I am just so against, personally, the holy rollers on both sides. There is almost always a grey in the middle which we do not recognize or choose to ignore. And yes even the vaccers seem like holy rollers. Very few people question anything the government of physicians tell them anymore. It's so scary to think most people out there act like they are part of a herd. Willingly. Scary. But that might be left for another topic of discussion...
I had planned on natural birth both times. My practitioner was an ob with a fantastic reputation for supporting natural birth and as the only doctor in her practice, she delivers all her own babies. Both times I delivered in the birth center inside a hospital. There was a bath tub, to labor or give birth in and the center policy let you walk around, eat, drink, etc. I took a hypnobirthing class and did a lot of yoga to prepare.
The first time I labored at home for 12 hours, and went in when the contractions were 3 minutes apart. When I got to the hospital I was 4 cm and all was well. Unfortunately, a couple of hours later the baby showed more and more signs of distress. My doctor advised that we do internal monitoring (my water was already broken). That showed that the baby was in even more trouble than we had previously thought. The only position I could be in and have my daughter's heart rate be stable was lying on my left side. I was already at 7 cm by this point and with no epidural in it was pure torture to hold still (moving caused her heart rate to drop). I managed to stay like that for 2 hours, at which point right as I was about to call the doctor and ask for drugs, she came and told me that my daughter was in distress no matter what I was doing and that a c section was the safest option. I agreed. So, to summarize, I labored naturally for 22 hours and had a c section at the end, despite everyones best efforts to avoid it. My daughter had been completely wrapped in her cord and so was not going to come out undamaged any other way.
We didn't have knives at home until I was ... 9 or 10? But they gave us butter knives with school lunch right from the get go, so ... yeah. I never complained about this at home though because I was lazy and liked to be pampered and have my mom cut up my food and spread the butter for me
And I did have trouble when they finally gave me real (actually sharp) knives. Steak knives were fine because they were serrated, but I had trouble with paring knives telling which side was the sharp side and often used them upside down trying to saw through something with the dull edge. I finally learned to look closely and learn the difference when my dad got frustrated with how slow it was going for me and slammed his hand down on the knife to push it through (a carrot? celery? can't remember now) and almost cut off his thumb :/
Hm. I dunno, I don't really feel quite as terrified about things as I did for the first several years. Which isn't to say there aren't moments...
Thank you everyone for invaluable opinions. I'm hoping I will not have to wait till my 40's, but I am 34 now, and the earliest I might have kids is probably 37. It will probably also take longer since I am in a same sex marraige, and ttc and all... Another consideration is that my wife is 13 years younger than I and she will be donating her young and healthy egg (hopefully) to me. So, my genetics will not be the only consideration. All factors I think about, and more... Thanks again everyone!
From watching my friends with twins, I guess the hardest thing is the sleeping. They might not wind up on the same sleep schedule and then they might wake each other up with crying. So uh.... yeah.
I think for twins just plan on more of everything - more diapers, more clothes (anything interchangable is good) etc. I think the "stuff" angle is true for pretty much anyone, you don't need as much as you think (but more with twins). I used to have a list but the site I kept it on disappeared suddenly.
Oh, this is an interesting discussion and one that I'm finding interesting as I am in the early stages of my second pregnancy.
I really appreciate both perspectives represented here - of modern medicine and of herbalism - and I actually like a middle way of using both, insofar as they are meant to be used (I think both can be and often are misused and misunderstood). I think a well-studied use of herbal remedies can be very complimentary to good medical care. A friend of mine, who is a Western herbalist and clinical researcher, is very evidence-based and really changed my perspective on the place for herbs. It's easy for people to go overboard and claim too many benefits to herbal remedies, to push baseless hokum like homeopathy and chakra balancing, etc., and it's equally easy to denounce it all as unproven, because most clinical studies are not looking at herbs in a double-blind, well-constructed study, particularly in pregnancy, because of the risks if it is somehow dangerous (and many herbs can be, just because they can be quite potent, particularly in a tincture or other concentrated form).
I honestly love holding other people's babies while they're eating. Did this for a new mum friend who needed to go to the loo and she turned back a few times because the baby was crying, but as soon as she was out of sight, baby was just fine.
When I was about 7 or 8 I was riding my bike and rode off the curb, flew off the seat, landed on the tube, and somehow managed to get a cut in my vaginal area. Apparently, it bled like a mofo. It turned out to be only a small cut, but I can only imagine what my mom felt like when her 8yo showed up at her door crying hysterically and bleeding profusely from her crotch.
my BMI is too high for my local birthing center.
that is ridonkulously stupid.
Yep! Anyone with a BMI 30+, that would be a woman average in height who weighs 175 pounds. Given that at least a third of women in Texas have a BMI 30+, it really sucks. Lower-class women are more likely to be affected by obesity, and are also more likely to require a more affordable option for hospital birth.
It seems like an amazing place to give birth, though. I was born via midwife and my mom said it was her best birthing experience.
Thinking about this topic a little more, I think it's important that we remember that statistics just indicate trends and don't actually tell much of a story as far as individual circumstances go. By that I mean that while in some countries the c-section rate is statistically higher than in other places, it doesn't mean that an individual's decision to have a c-section in those countries is necessarily a flawed one. Nor does it mean that all doctors in those countries are scalpel-happy and just want to get babies out so they can take off to play golf or go for lunch, as I've seen it put on other pregnancy forums (not here).
If I do a brief statistical analysis of friends/acquaintances etc who have given birth in the last few years, the majority had vaginal births, everything from quick and uncomplicated to lengthy and forceps delivery. I can't think of any who had c-sections as a personal choice rather than for a medical reason. Those who had c-sections either had scheduled ones for good reason (obstruction due to fibroids, placenta previa, breech after unsuccessful ECV) or an emergency one for good reason (pre-eclampsia, fetal distress, placental abruption etc). Australia apparently has a c-section rate of 20-25% which this sample would accord with. But given the reasons for the c-sections, I do wonder when I read that the WHO recommends a c-section rate of 10-15%, who exactly should have been turned away from this limited sample?
We have topics and questions all the time about what to eat when you're pregnant, so I wanted to share this charming story of an experience I had while pregnant with my second daughter.
I was only 10 or 11 weeks along and had been dealing with a "managable" level of morning sickness. This means that I could throw up at any time without warning, but in a cute pregnant way, not a dibilitating one. Most times, as long as there was food on my stomach I'd be okay, so I was careful to keep healthy snacks around - my favorite being cheetos, because you know, cheese is dairy right?
I was following all the good internet advice of not eating raw or uncooked foods, no deli meat, no salad bars, no soft cheeses, only low mercury fish, no food out of trunks of cars, etc.
We went to a wedding at a nice hotel. There was a buffet. I was one of the first people in line at the buffet because I had a two year old who looked like she might be hungry so I played that card, you know how it is. The food was delicious - salad with fresh lettuce, rice, beef strogonoff, mixed veggies. Everything that was supposed to be cold was cold and everything that was supposed to be hot was steaming hot.
Apparently there is a new book out called The Rabbit Who Wants to Go to Sleep and it is ALL THE RAGE.. http://www.amazon.com/Rabbit-Wants-Asle ... 149617951X
If you are still breastfeeding, that may be an issue (not that I recommend that you stop breastfeeding). Topping up before they sleep could be warranted.
For my kid, we keep his room permanently dark and have a white-noise soundmaker outside his door and it works well. Also, although we didn't do a pure "cry it out" method, there were times at the beginning of his "sleep through the night" nights that he would wake up and whimper and we just would wait 2-10 minutes and he'd go back to sleep. That went away and now we don't expect a peep until at least 11 hours have passed. I think we as worried mothers are sort of complicit in creating their "need" for us.. If my boy knows I'll come in within 30 seconds of him making a sound, he'll want me to come in. If he's not sure how long it'll take, he'll go back to bed... Please take the preceding advice as something I might recommend only after the kid is 1 year old. Before then I would never just let him be... I used to rock him to sleep until my arms gave out.
However, one thing I remember clearly from my childhood is being very afraid of death.
I remember when I first realized that we die when we get old. I told my best friend at the time and he got really upset. I never quite had the need for an afterlife, though I remember at about 10 I conceived that when we died maybe we came back again as someone else. This was before I knew that someone else had already thought of that
Presently I'm still open to the idea of some sort of afterlife when we die. One thing I find inspirational when I'm depressed is the thought that there might be some sort of new and interesting afterlife when we die. It can give me energy to keep on with this life. But the idea of eternal punishment for our sins in the afterlife? I'd say to the average man that's the same as "Life's a bitch and then you die and then you go to hell and suffer". The idea that we MIGHT get punished for our sins when we die, for most of us, only serves to make our lives more fearful and miserable and then of course when we die we may well find that no such punishment exists. Like the saying goes "Cheer up, it might never happen". The only usefulness I think of for the idea of afterlife retribution, is something with which to scare a tyrant who is so powerful that apparently nothing in this life can stop him or her abusing people and nature. By telling them that there might be something in the afterlife holding them to account, you might actually scare them into reconsidering their behaviour. But I'd say that for most people, hell or other afterlife punishment, is an unnecessary fear.