This table attempts to estimate your probability of going into labor on different individual days based on your estimated due date. If you don't know your due date, or just want a handy daily page to tell you where you're at, use the pregnancy calendar.
It's based on the idea that the average pregnancy lasts 40 weeks with a standard deviation of about 10 days. This means you're more likely to go into labor on one of the days close to your due date. For instance, about half of all babies are born within a week of their date. Scroll to the bottom of this page if you want to know more about where I got these numbers.
The following dates are based on an estimated due date of January 15th, 2016.
|Date||Progress||Overall probability of
|Current probability of
|probability of a pregnant woman at this stage going into labor|
|On this date||By this date||On this date||By this date||On this date||Within 3 days||Within 5 days||Within 7 days|
|Friday December 11th, 2015||35W, 0D||0.01%||0.02%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.1%||0.2%|
|Saturday December 12th, 2015||35W, 1D||0.01%||0.03%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.2%||0.3%|
|Sunday December 13th, 2015||35W, 2D||0.02%||0.05%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.2%||0.4%|
|Monday December 14th, 2015||35W, 3D||0.02%||0.07%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.3%||0.6%|
|Tuesday December 15th, 2015||35W, 4D||0.03%||0.1%||-%||-%||-%||0.2%||0.4%||0.7%|
|Wednesday December 16th, 2015||35W, 5D||0.04%||0.13%||-%||-%||-%||0.2%||0.5%||0.9%|
|Thursday December 17th, 2015||35W, 6D||0.06%||0.19%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.3%||0.6%||1.2%|
|Friday December 18th, 2015||36W, 0D||0.08%||0.26%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.4%||0.8%||1.5%|
|Saturday December 19th, 2015||36W, 1D||0.1%||0.35%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.5%||1%||1.9%|
|Sunday December 20th, 2015||36W, 2D||0.14%||0.47%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.6%||1.3%||2.4%|
|Monday December 21st, 2015||36W, 3D||0.18%||0.62%||-%||-%||0.2%||0.8%||1.7%||3%|
|Tuesday December 22nd, 2015||36W, 4D||0.22%||0.82%||-%||-%||0.2%||1%||2.1%||3.7%|
|Wednesday December 23rd, 2015||36W, 5D||0.28%||1.07%||-%||-%||0.3%||1.2%||2.5%||4.5%|
|Thursday December 24th, 2015||36W, 6D||0.35%||1.39%||-%||-%||0.4%||1.5%||3.1%||5.4%|
|Friday December 25th, 2015||37W, 0D||0.44%||1.79%||-%||-%||0.4%||1.8%||3.8%||6.4%|
|Saturday December 26th, 2015||37W, 1D||0.54%||2.28%||-%||-%||0.6%||2.2%||4.5%||7.6%|
|Sunday December 27th, 2015||37W, 2D||0.66%||2.87%||-%||-%||0.7%||2.7%||5.4%||8.9%|
|Monday December 28th, 2015||37W, 3D||0.79%||3.59%||-%||-%||0.8%||3.2%||6.3%||10.4%|
|Tuesday December 29th, 2015||37W, 4D||0.94%||4.46%||-%||-%||1%||3.8%||7.4%||11.9%|
|Wednesday December 30th, 2015||37W, 5D||1.11%||5.48%||-%||-%||1.2%||4.4%||8.6%||13.7%|
|Thursday December 31st, 2015||37W, 6D||1.3%||6.68%||-%||-%||1.4%||5.2%||9.8%||15.5%|
|Friday January 1st, 2016||38W, 0D||1.5%||8.08%||-%||-%||1.6%||6%||11.2%||17.5%|
|Saturday January 2nd, 2016||38W, 1D||1.71%||9.68%||-%||-%||1.9%||6.9%||12.7%||19.7%|
|Sunday January 3rd, 2016||38W, 2D||1.94%||11.51%||-%||-%||2.2%||7.8%||14.3%||21.9%|
|Monday January 4th, 2016||38W, 3D||2.18%||13.57%||-%||-%||2.5%||8.8%||16%||24.2%|
|Tuesday January 5th, 2016||38W, 4D||2.42%||15.87%||-%||-%||2.9%||9.9%||17.8%||26.6%|
|Wednesday January 6th, 2016||38W, 5D||2.66%||18.41%||-%||-%||3.3%||11.1%||19.7%||29%|
|Thursday January 7th, 2016||38W, 6D||2.9%||21.19%||-%||-%||3.7%||12.3%||21.6%||31.5%|
|Friday January 8th, 2016||39W, 0D||3.12%||24.2%||-%||-%||4.1%||13.5%||23.6%||34%|
|Saturday January 9th, 2016||39W, 1D||3.33%||27.43%||-%||-%||4.6%||14.9%||25.6%||36.6%|
|Sunday January 10th, 2016||39W, 2D||3.52%||30.85%||-%||-%||5.1%||16.2%||27.7%||39.2%|
|Monday January 11th, 2016||39W, 3D||3.68%||34.46%||-%||-%||5.6%||17.6%||29.8%||41.7%|
|Tuesday January 12th, 2016||39W, 4D||3.81%||38.21%||-%||-%||6.2%||19.1%||31.9%||44.2%|
|Wednesday January 13th, 2016||39W, 5D||3.91%||42.07%||-%||-%||6.7%||20.6%||34%||46.7%|
|Thursday January 14th, 2016||39W, 6D||3.97%||46.02%||-%||-%||7.4%||22.1%||36.2%||49.2%|
|Friday January 15th, 2016||40W, 0D||3.99%||50%||-%||-%||8%||23.6%||38.3%||51.6%|
|Saturday January 16th, 2016||40W, 1D||3.97%||53.98%||-%||-%||8.6%||25.1%||40.4%||54%|
|Sunday January 17th, 2016||40W, 2D||3.91%||57.93%||-%||-%||9.3%||26.7%||42.5%||56.2%|
|Monday January 18th, 2016||40W, 3D||3.81%||61.79%||-%||-%||10%||28.2%||44.5%||58.5%|
|Tuesday January 19th, 2016||40W, 4D||3.68%||65.54%||-%||-%||10.7%||29.8%||46.6%||60.6%|
|Wednesday January 20th, 2016||40W, 5D||3.52%||69.15%||-%||-%||11.4%||31.3%||48.6%||62.7%|
|Thursday January 21st, 2016||40W, 6D||3.33%||72.57%||-%||-%||12.1%||32.9%||50.5%||64.7%|
|Friday January 22nd, 2016||41W, 0D||3.12%||75.8%||-%||-%||12.9%||34.4%||52.4%||66.6%|
|Saturday January 23rd, 2016||41W, 1D||2.9%||78.81%||-%||-%||13.7%||36%||54.3%||68.5%|
|Sunday January 24th, 2016||41W, 2D||2.66%||81.59%||-%||-%||14.4%||37.5%||56.1%||70.2%|
|Monday January 25th, 2016||41W, 3D||2.42%||84.13%||-%||-%||15.2%||39%||57.9%||71.9%|
|Tuesday January 26th, 2016||41W, 4D||2.18%||86.43%||-%||-%||16.1%||40.5%||59.6%||73.5%|
|Wednesday January 27th, 2016||41W, 5D||1.94%||88.49%||-%||-%||16.9%||42%||61.3%||75.1%|
|Thursday January 28th, 2016||41W, 6D||1.71%||90.32%||-%||-%||17.7%||43.4%||62.9%||76.4%|
|Friday January 29th, 2016||42W, 0D||1.5%||91.92%||-%||-%||18.6%||44.8%||64.5%||77.8%|
|Saturday January 30th, 2016||42W, 1D||1.3%||93.32%||-%||-%||19.5%||46.3%||65.9%||79.2%|
|Sunday January 31st, 2016||42W, 2D||1.11%||94.52%||-%||-%||20.3%||47.6%||67.3%||80.5%|
|Monday February 1st, 2016||42W, 3D||0.94%||95.54%||-%||-%||21.1%||48.9%||68.8%||81.6%|
|Tuesday February 2nd, 2016||42W, 4D||0.79%||96.41%||-%||-%||22%||50.1%||70.2%||82.7%|
|Wednesday February 3rd, 2016||42W, 5D||0.66%||97.13%||-%||-%||23%||51.6%||71.4%||83.6%|
|Thursday February 4th, 2016||42W, 6D||0.54%||97.72%||-%||-%||23.7%||53.1%||72.8%||84.6%|
|Friday February 5th, 2016||43W, 0D||0.44%||98.21%||-%||-%||24.6%||54.2%||73.7%||85.5%|
|Saturday February 6th, 2016||43W, 1D||0.35%||98.61%||-%||-%||25.2%||55.4%||74.8%||86.3%|
|Sunday February 7th, 2016||43W, 2D||0.28%||98.93%||-%||-%||26.2%||56.1%||75.7%||87.9%|
|Monday February 8th, 2016||43W, 3D||0.22%||99.18%||-%||-%||26.8%||57.3%||76.8%||-%|
|Tuesday February 9th, 2016||43W, 4D||0.18%||99.38%||-%||-%||29%||58.1%||79%||-%|
|Wednesday February 10th, 2016||43W, 5D||0.14%||99.53%||-%||-%||29.8%||59.6%||-%||-%|
|Thursday February 11th, 2016||43W, 6D||0.1%||99.65%||-%||-%||28.6%||62.9%||-%||-%|
|Friday February 12th, 2016||44W, 0D||0.08%||99.74%||-%||-%||30.8%||-%||-%||-%|
|Saturday February 13th, 2016||44W, 1D||0.06%||99.81%||-%||-%||31.6%||-%||-%||-%|
|Sunday February 14th, 2016||44W, 2D||0.04%||99.87%||-%||-%||30.8%||-%||-%||-%|
All percentages are estimates based on mathematical averages and should not be taken terribly seriously... just because you only have 5% chance of going into labor two weeks early, that doesn't mean you should schedule a trip to the bahamas that weekend (see xkcd to get what I mean here).
You should (obviously) listen to your doctor or midwife on all matters related to pregnancy and childbirth. Just because this chart tells you that a 42W pregnant woman has a high chance of delivering in the next seven days, it doesn't mean it's healthy for her to be pregnant for seven more days. If your doctor wants to increase probability of delivery by inducing labor, there's probably a good reason.
Finding good distribution statistics on spontaneous labor is interesting. I have not found a study with an exact daily breakdown of when babies are born. However I have read way too much on this topic, so I can tell you that my favorite published research is The length of human pregnancy as calculated by ultrasonographic measurement of the fetal biparietal diameter (H. Kieler, O. Axelsson, S. Nilsson, U. Waldenströ) which a very nice table of 10 published studies, which found various means between 272-283 days. The study contributes their own results as well, analyzing nearly 2000 mothers who went into labor spontaneously, and there's graphs of what they found. They found a mean around 280 days, and standard deviations between 8-11 days. There's a big list of other studies and answers in the Introduction to my due date survey results.
Which leads to this topic... I am also in the process of collecting my own statistics. If you have had a baby, please take my due date survey. Oddly enough, the numbers I've collected so far support my messy hunch that pregnancy length has a 40-week mean and 9-10 day standard deviation. So go me.
Anyway if you have better research, drop me an e-mail (email@example.com).
Charts are generated by flot.
My father in law does financial advising so we kind of have an in-house advisor? But seriously someone with expertise is great. There are various "how to do finances" through our local community ed, which I'd probably consider if I didn't already have someone to ask. Maybe something like that near you? Libraries also sometimes have programs.
Also I know you can do wills and stuff on your own but honestly I found it super useful to talk through it with a lawyer who does that. She thought of things we never would have. (hm really should revisit now that kid is older) It was a one time fee and not that bad.
We do most of our banking through a credit union. Have been happy with them. We refinanced our mortgage through them when we did that. I remember the big credit union bust ages ago, but there are lots more protections in place now and big banks can be pretty awful.
My brother's favorite stuffed animal was a thing we called 'gerbil'. I actually don't know what it was because we found it in the street (not sure what my mum was thinking in allowing him to pick it up, let alone keep it) and it had already lost an eye and was unidentifiable, but he became really attached to it. We almost missed a flight once because he dropped it in the airport and we had to go back to look for it.
Today for the first time my 11month old showed interest in a stuffed animal. Just before Christmas we received a box from Amazon with a giant bear inside. No gift wrap, no note. Just a bear the size of my child. It's been sat in his room and ignored completely, despite him exploring literally everything else that is in there. Then, out of the blue, he made a beeline for it and tried to pull its eyes out.
All the pliable/crafty stuff I can think of has been mentioned. ETA: I lied. Bread dough!
But if generally tactile surfaces also apply, mermaid sequin pillows are comforting. It was one of my impulse buys at a department store about a month ago. I couldn't stop petting the display. The sequined side seemed like it wouldn't be comfortable to rest on but it hasn't been an issue. My stepdad really likes them so I got him one for giftmas and he said it helps distract him when chronic pain keeps him awake at night. https://www.etsy.com/listing/470423508/ ... _active_40
I haven't field tested them on my nieces and nephews yet. That could be fun.
Bilingualism! This is something I know a lot about! My last job was to speak English to my class in a partial immersion school and the kids picked up English so fast but spoke back to me in German. We worked on saying different words in German and in English and it meaning the same thing and I read English books to them. They differentiated pretty well but most of them came from a mono-lingual family background.
I can still highly recommend this book: (https://www.amazon.com/Third-Culture-Ki ... 1857885252) for bilingual children. Some very good advice in there.
Also, keep speaking English! Toddlers forget fast when a language is no longer present.
I agree with everything lyra211 said and will add a few more.
Things you don't need:
Anything soft, fluffy or furry. My baby couldn't care less about minky blankets and soft toys. Plus they seem more gross to clean when they get covered in bodily fluids.
Clothes that look like adult clothes. It's so difficult to squeeze baby thighs into miniature corduroys or denim jeans which have no give to the fabric.
Baby washcloths. Babies make a disproportionate amount of mess so you need adult size washcloths to clean them up.
Things that were super useful:
A folding changing mat. I have a SkipHop one which has enough storage for wipes and diapers, which was all I needed to carry with me when I had a newborn. Now that he's bigger, I appreciate the larger size of the mat because the one that came with my diaper bag is way too small.
Balls. They were the first thing he played with and still his favourite toys. At the beginning he liked one made by Oball which was easy to pick up, and a soft fabric one which made a crinkly noise. Now he loves throwing a soft rubber ball and watching it bounce.
I was proficient in fine/gross motor skills and cognitive development for my age, but I was further behind in speech/language development and social/emotional development. I caught up in them perhaps by ages 5-7, with vestiges of social issues lasting longer (like my temper). There was nothing inherently bad about being a bit off in timing, though in my case my imbalance was severe enough that I did need professional help from a speech pathologist.
....New social situations make me feel somewhat awkward, but I've also learned that many other people feel the same way about novel contexts, so I think I'm with the curve there.
geez, are you my twin, sonic? XD
I grew up with definite lag in speech/language development. I had a speech pathologist in elementary school work on my -L-'s, -r-'s and -th-'s; and when I essentially "graduated" from it I was taken out of the IEP program. my mom and I now see that being a mistake. middle school went decently, but I struggled in language arts; and by the time I went into high school I was struggling in my history/English humanities course and Algebra. I struggled in English classes because of my inability to express myself through language clearly, and I struggled in algebra because I couldn't follow a thing my teacher was saying (we had someone tutor me who literally asked why she was tutoring me because I grasped the concepts five minutes after her explaining it).
It is wrong to lock horses in cages and breed them as if they are slaves.
I sincerely hope that you aren't condoning slavery with that implication that it isn't wrong to keep humans in cages and force them to "breed". It's probably just an unfortunate word choice.
I said it is wrong to put horses in cages and breed them as slaves. So I don't know how you read things. Frankly you are irritating me because I shouldn't have to explain how I said 2+2=4 when you are accusing me of saying 2+2=5. In this age people should have mastered how to read clearly and I shouldn't have to micromanage my text and clear what I have already layed out clearly for you.
To be fair, if the girl is a Female to Male transsexual, her hormones are not so important, at an old age Male hormones will mutate her body and have the same effect. But with boy's its more tragic and serious. Boys who want to be girls, must stop their toxic T at an early age, or else their face will be permanently ugly and bony
It's about teaching children to make love so that they do it themselves. Love has no age or genetic requirement. It's healthy for young siblings to make love, and it's unhealthy if they don't. Sexual repression of children fucks them up as adults. Because the parents are secretive about it, children get the idea that it's bad, which starts the process of sexual repression.
Gross. Yuck. Eww. I've run out of ways to express how disgusted I am with what you've said here. Ewwwwwww!!!!!!!
No, siblings should not make love. It is in our genetic interest that we don't do this. Ever. This is a cultural universal.
Looking to know about the system and biology hehe ..
I find theimaginationtree.com has lots of inspiring ideas. Some look like they take quite a bit of prep, but if you're doing it for a whole class then it might be worth it. You can sort activities by age as well so it's easier to search.
I'm on the fence about this. I was always the youngest in my class because I was born 2 days before the cut off. I started school JUST after my 5th birthday (Go England.... not...) and this made a huge gap between me and the oldest kids in the class who were almost a whole year older. However, even though I might have struggled more then I'm ok now, you know? It might have even been helpful for me, pushing myself to learn more and try and be smarter. My sister was held back for a year in preschool in Germany because she didn't speak German well enough for the first grade and so she has always been the oldest in class and she's not really as academic as me. This is all anecdata of course, but interesting to ponder over.
I could see saunas becoming an obsession for a number of very social reasons as well, depending on your family's sauna practices. I honestly can't think of any common themes or rituals shared by all branches of my U.S. family, other than like eating together, but that seems too banal(/essential for survival) to really become an obsession. My Finnish family, on the other hand, all sauna as a social ritual. Whether or not you allow your kid in saunas yet, if there's a lot of exposure to the ritual, they could probably pick up on the social importance. It might make sense that kids are probably wired to pick up on things that the adults in their life think are important (**not a child psychologist**).
<...> I know I was super into the instant evaporation of water and associated *hissssss* the first time I was in a sauna at like age seven.
This is an excellent point. And although I know they exist, I haven't encountered any Finns who don't like sauna. There are a lot of steps to it. The kid gets to help their grandfather build the fire when we're together, knows that wood burning saunas are better than electric saunas, and absolutely loves the sound of the water hitting the hot stones. I can't imitate the sound as well as the kid does.
Mental health issues will never start to hurt, therefore no preemptive treatment is needed.
Mental health issues hurt, take it from me. There are many psychosomatic disorders out there which affect your body even though the real problem is in your mind. But to get better, you HAVE to treat both. Pre-emptive treatment also can stop some disorders from becoming too bad. And yes, sometimes drugs can be very very helpful.
I don't think you know what you're talking about and all this "I know because of divine intuition" bullshit is starting to piss me off. if you ask others for sources, be kind enough to provide some yourself.
If this thread continues to be shit-slinging, I will lock it.