This table attempts to estimate your probability of going into labor on different individual days based on your estimated due date. If you don't know your due date, or just want a handy daily page to tell you where you're at, use the pregnancy calendar.
It's based on the idea that the average pregnancy lasts 40 weeks with a standard deviation of about 10 days. This means you're more likely to go into labor on one of the days close to your due date. For instance, about half of all babies are born within a week of their date. Scroll to the bottom of this page if you want to know more about where I got these numbers.
The following dates are based on an estimated due date of December 20th, 2014.
|Date||Progress||Overall probability of
|Current probability of
|probability of a pregnant woman at this stage going into labor|
|On this date||By this date||On this date||By this date||On this date||Within 3 days||Within 5 days||Within 7 days|
|Saturday November 15th, 2014||35W, 0D||0.01%||0.02%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.1%||0.2%|
|Sunday November 16th, 2014||35W, 1D||0.01%||0.03%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.2%||0.3%|
|Monday November 17th, 2014||35W, 2D||0.02%||0.05%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.2%||0.4%|
|Tuesday November 18th, 2014||35W, 3D||0.02%||0.07%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.3%||0.6%|
|Wednesday November 19th, 2014||35W, 4D||0.03%||0.1%||-%||-%||-%||0.2%||0.4%||0.7%|
|Thursday November 20th, 2014||35W, 5D||0.04%||0.13%||-%||-%||-%||0.2%||0.5%||0.9%|
|Friday November 21st, 2014||35W, 6D||0.06%||0.19%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.3%||0.6%||1.2%|
|Saturday November 22nd, 2014||36W, 0D||0.08%||0.26%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.4%||0.8%||1.5%|
|Sunday November 23rd, 2014||36W, 1D||0.1%||0.35%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.5%||1%||1.9%|
|Monday November 24th, 2014||36W, 2D||0.14%||0.47%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.6%||1.3%||2.4%|
|Tuesday November 25th, 2014||36W, 3D||0.18%||0.62%||-%||-%||0.2%||0.8%||1.7%||3%|
|Wednesday November 26th, 2014||36W, 4D||0.22%||0.82%||-%||-%||0.2%||1%||2.1%||3.7%|
|Thursday November 27th, 2014||36W, 5D||0.28%||1.07%||-%||-%||0.3%||1.2%||2.5%||4.5%|
|Friday November 28th, 2014||36W, 6D||0.35%||1.39%||-%||-%||0.4%||1.5%||3.1%||5.4%|
|Saturday November 29th, 2014||37W, 0D||0.44%||1.79%||-%||-%||0.4%||1.8%||3.8%||6.4%|
|Sunday November 30th, 2014||37W, 1D||0.54%||2.28%||-%||-%||0.6%||2.2%||4.5%||7.6%|
|Monday December 1st, 2014||37W, 2D||0.66%||2.87%||-%||-%||0.7%||2.7%||5.4%||8.9%|
|Tuesday December 2nd, 2014||37W, 3D||0.79%||3.59%||-%||-%||0.8%||3.2%||6.3%||10.4%|
|Wednesday December 3rd, 2014||37W, 4D||0.94%||4.46%||-%||-%||1%||3.8%||7.4%||11.9%|
|Thursday December 4th, 2014||37W, 5D||1.11%||5.48%||-%||-%||1.2%||4.4%||8.6%||13.7%|
|Friday December 5th, 2014||37W, 6D||1.3%||6.68%||-%||-%||1.4%||5.2%||9.8%||15.5%|
|Saturday December 6th, 2014||38W, 0D||1.5%||8.08%||-%||-%||1.6%||6%||11.2%||17.5%|
|Sunday December 7th, 2014||38W, 1D||1.71%||9.68%||-%||-%||1.9%||6.9%||12.7%||19.7%|
|Monday December 8th, 2014||38W, 2D||1.94%||11.51%||-%||-%||2.2%||7.8%||14.3%||21.9%|
|Tuesday December 9th, 2014||38W, 3D||2.18%||13.57%||-%||-%||2.5%||8.8%||16%||24.2%|
|Wednesday December 10th, 2014||38W, 4D||2.42%||15.87%||-%||-%||2.9%||9.9%||17.8%||26.6%|
|Thursday December 11th, 2014||38W, 5D||2.66%||18.41%||-%||-%||3.3%||11.1%||19.7%||29%|
|Friday December 12th, 2014||38W, 6D||2.9%||21.19%||-%||-%||3.7%||12.3%||21.6%||31.5%|
|Saturday December 13th, 2014||39W, 0D||3.12%||24.2%||-%||-%||4.1%||13.5%||23.6%||34%|
|Sunday December 14th, 2014||39W, 1D||3.33%||27.43%||-%||-%||4.6%||14.9%||25.6%||36.6%|
|Monday December 15th, 2014||39W, 2D||3.52%||30.85%||-%||-%||5.1%||16.2%||27.7%||39.2%|
|Tuesday December 16th, 2014||39W, 3D||3.68%||34.46%||-%||-%||5.6%||17.6%||29.8%||41.7%|
|Wednesday December 17th, 2014||39W, 4D||3.81%||38.21%||-%||-%||6.2%||19.1%||31.9%||44.2%|
|Thursday December 18th, 2014||39W, 5D||3.91%||42.07%||6.3%||6.2%||6.7%||20.6%||34%||46.7%|
|Friday December 19th, 2014||39W, 6D||3.97%||46.02%||6.4%||12.6%||7.4%||22.1%||36.2%||49.2%|
|Saturday December 20th, 2014||40W, 0D||3.99%||50%||6.5%||19.1%||8%||23.6%||38.3%||51.6%|
|Sunday December 21st, 2014||40W, 1D||3.97%||53.98%||6.4%||25.5%||8.6%||25.1%||40.4%||54%|
|Monday December 22nd, 2014||40W, 2D||3.91%||57.93%||6.3%||31.9%||9.3%||26.7%||42.5%||56.2%|
|Tuesday December 23rd, 2014||40W, 3D||3.81%||61.79%||6.2%||38.2%||10%||28.2%||44.5%||58.5%|
|Wednesday December 24th, 2014||40W, 4D||3.68%||65.54%||6%||44.2%||10.7%||29.8%||46.6%||60.6%|
|Thursday December 25th, 2014||40W, 5D||3.52%||69.15%||5.7%||50.1%||11.4%||31.3%||48.6%||62.7%|
|Friday December 26th, 2014||40W, 6D||3.33%||72.57%||5.4%||55.6%||12.1%||32.9%||50.5%||64.7%|
|Saturday December 27th, 2014||41W, 0D||3.12%||75.8%||5%||60.8%||12.9%||34.4%||52.4%||66.6%|
|Sunday December 28th, 2014||41W, 1D||2.9%||78.81%||4.7%||65.7%||13.7%||36%||54.3%||68.5%|
|Monday December 29th, 2014||41W, 2D||2.66%||81.59%||4.3%||70.2%||14.4%||37.5%||56.1%||70.2%|
|Tuesday December 30th, 2014||41W, 3D||2.42%||84.13%||3.9%||74.3%||15.2%||39%||57.9%||71.9%|
|Wednesday December 31st, 2014||41W, 4D||2.18%||86.43%||3.5%||78%||16.1%||40.5%||59.6%||73.5%|
|Thursday January 1st, 2015||41W, 5D||1.94%||88.49%||3.1%||81.4%||16.9%||42%||61.3%||75.1%|
|Friday January 2nd, 2015||41W, 6D||1.71%||90.32%||2.8%||84.3%||17.7%||43.4%||62.9%||76.4%|
|Saturday January 3rd, 2015||42W, 0D||1.5%||91.92%||2.4%||86.9%||18.6%||44.8%||64.5%||77.8%|
|Sunday January 4th, 2015||42W, 1D||1.3%||93.32%||2.1%||89.2%||19.5%||46.3%||65.9%||79.2%|
|Monday January 5th, 2015||42W, 2D||1.11%||94.52%||1.8%||91.1%||20.3%||47.6%||67.3%||80.5%|
|Tuesday January 6th, 2015||42W, 3D||0.94%||95.54%||1.5%||92.8%||21.1%||48.9%||68.8%||81.6%|
|Wednesday January 7th, 2015||42W, 4D||0.79%||96.41%||1.3%||94.2%||22%||50.1%||70.2%||82.7%|
|Thursday January 8th, 2015||42W, 5D||0.66%||97.13%||1.1%||95.4%||23%||51.6%||71.4%||83.6%|
|Friday January 9th, 2015||42W, 6D||0.54%||97.72%||0.9%||96.3%||23.7%||53.1%||72.8%||84.6%|
|Saturday January 10th, 2015||43W, 0D||0.44%||98.21%||0.7%||97.1%||24.6%||54.2%||73.7%||85.5%|
|Sunday January 11th, 2015||43W, 1D||0.35%||98.61%||0.6%||97.8%||25.2%||55.4%||74.8%||86.3%|
|Monday January 12th, 2015||43W, 2D||0.28%||98.93%||0.5%||98.3%||26.2%||56.1%||75.7%||87.9%|
|Tuesday January 13th, 2015||43W, 3D||0.22%||99.18%||0.4%||98.7%||26.8%||57.3%||76.8%||-%|
|Wednesday January 14th, 2015||43W, 4D||0.18%||99.38%||0.3%||99%||29%||58.1%||79%||-%|
|Thursday January 15th, 2015||43W, 5D||0.14%||99.53%||0.2%||99.2%||29.8%||59.6%||-%||-%|
|Friday January 16th, 2015||43W, 6D||0.1%||99.65%||0.2%||99.4%||28.6%||62.9%||-%||-%|
|Saturday January 17th, 2015||44W, 0D||0.08%||99.74%||0.1%||99.6%||30.8%||-%||-%||-%|
|Sunday January 18th, 2015||44W, 1D||0.06%||99.81%||0.1%||99.7%||31.6%||-%||-%||-%|
|Monday January 19th, 2015||44W, 2D||0.04%||99.87%||0.1%||99.8%||30.8%||-%||-%||-%|
All percentages are estimates based on mathematical averages and should not be taken terribly seriously... just because you only have 5% chance of going into labor two weeks early, that doesn't mean you should schedule a trip to the bahamas that weekend (see xkcd to get what I mean here).
You should (obviously) listen to your doctor or midwife on all matters related to pregnancy and childbirth. Just because this chart tells you that a 42W pregnant woman has a high chance of delivering in the next seven days, it doesn't mean it's healthy for her to be pregnant for seven more days. If your doctor wants to increase probability of delivery by inducing labor, there's probably a good reason.
Finding good distribution statistics on spontaneous labor is interesting. I have not found a study with an exact daily breakdown of when babies are born. However I have read way too much on this topic, so I can tell you that my favorite published research is The length of human pregnancy as calculated by ultrasonographic measurement of the fetal biparietal diameter (H. Kieler, O. Axelsson, S. Nilsson, U. Waldenströ) which a very nice table of 10 published studies, which found various means between 272-283 days. The study contributes their own results as well, analyzing nearly 2000 mothers who went into labor spontaneously, and there's graphs of what they found. They found a mean around 280 days, and standard deviations between 8-11 days. There's a big list of other studies and answers in the Introduction to my due date survey results.
Which leads to this topic... I am also in the process of collecting my own statistics. If you have had a baby, please take my due date survey. Oddly enough, the numbers I've collected so far support my messy hunch that pregnancy length has a 40-week mean and 9-10 day standard deviation. So go me.
Anyway if you have better research, drop me an e-mail (email@example.com).
Charts are generated by flot.
I remember joking with someone that I wanted one of those three-episode pregnancies like they have on sitcoms. Seriously this is how they all are:
First episode: Pregnancy test passed in very obvious way, those who know are unsure how to tell those who don't know, hilarity ensues.
Second episode: Pregnancy person is fat and hungry, insert cute funny morning sickness scene.
Third episde: Water breaks in inconvenient time, lots of screaming at people in hilarious ways, end shot of happy new parents holding baby waxing philosophically about the meaning of life.
So that's television.
In reality, pregnancy takes nine months. You aren't instantly big and pregnant the day after you pass the test, in fact you might not feel pregnant at all. Labor & delivery go at very odd paces. Women give birth in many different positions and are definitely not always fully clothed, yes even in hospitals.
I just watched an episode of Grey's Anatomy... which as medical staff as writers I'm sure! That shows Dr. Grey, a few months pregnant, feeling "flutters" and realizing it's her baby moving. She goes home that very night and there's a scene with her husband with his hand on her stomach feeling the baby kick, making soccer jokes. Uh, what? It takes forever before someone else can feel that baby move and tell you you're not crazy! Amiright?
My sister and her husband were glad for mine and our mothers help for limited periods when she just wanted to sleep but we both understood "the look" that said we should go away without her having to actually throw us out. If you don't have that relationship with "S" and can't establish it before the babies born don't guest her at your house.
But it is a really kind offer. Maybe she doesn't know you already have a support system? let her know.
I have no help, but I can offer hugs. *hugs*
We found out, it was a fun detail to learn about our baby, it inspired the Wonder Woman nursery theme. My friends and family didn't go too nuts on the pink. There were a number of weird conversations with people who assumed I would oppose pink. I think pink is a lovely color for a baby to wear, alongside all the others, but people associated feminism with some kind of anti-pink venom that I just don't feel. I guess I feel like eventually, my family and friends are going to know the kid's sex. Our culture will ascribe gender roles to her far before she's conscious of them herself, so she'll have to be taught from a very young age that such things are bullshit. Wether she starts being gendered at 3 months or 3 days doesn't stand to change things significantly, in my view, we still have a long road on that one.
For a good pre-conception book with a lot of science in it, I really enjoyed "The Impatient Woman's Guide to Getting Pregnant". All the science is cited and it's an easy read.
I really liked the book "Origins: How the Nine Months Before Birth Shape the Rest of Our Lives". It contained a lot of information a lot of other books didn't and was fun to read.
For a good reference book, I love the 411 series (Expecting 411, Baby 411, Toddler 411). It has really helpful information in an easy to look up format.
I also have enjoyed reading some essays about motherhood including "Waiting for Birdy" about a woman's second pregnancy while raising a toddler, "The Good Mother Myth: Redefining Motherhood to Fit Reality" which is a collection of essays about motherhood, and "Bringing Up Bebe" for a travelogue while parenting.
I haven't had to go through anything that is this (I imagine) traumatic. However, I have been pregnant five times, and I do only have two children. During my two successful pregnancies (I miscarried very early in the other three) I pretty much had to just stop reading anything at all, because, for me personally, it wasn't reassuring. It just made it worse. No news, baby books, articles, no online communities, nothing. Just made me more paranoid.
After the 3rd miscarriage, I went to grief counseling, and I continued therapy through my pregnancy with my second child, which seemed to help a lot.
I will tell you, if it gives you any peace of mind whatsoever, that I was told after my second miscarriage, when I was only 20 years old, that I would need a hysterectomy and probably never have children. Five years later, I have all my reproductive organs and have two healthy children.
I know what works for me won't for everyone, but you could maybe try some of these things?
Ladies, I am so sorry you're feeling so awful. Do talk to your doctors about this, and expect them to take is seriously. I delayed getting help for way too long because I thought I was just having normal morning sickness and it was NOT normal morning sickness. Once you've tried the usual round of crackers, ginger everything, sea bands, teas, etc. there are prescriptions that can help you stay healthy so you can nurture your growing baby. I had to take enough Zofran and Phenergan to put a horse to sleep and had a healthy, happy baby born to a healthy, happy momma. If things really persist check out http://beyondmorningsickness.com for more options.
kaybee that is a great write-up, thank you for sharing! do you mind if I split this off to its own topic? because it's worth it!
I especially admired the conclusion:
Pretty much the only helpful comment I got from a member of the general public while I was pregnant was this super sweet woman at a lecture. We were chatting, I told her I was expecting my first baby, and a few minutes later I mentioned my friends and I had just gone out to a local sushi place. She got this big smile and said "I didn't have sushi until my third kid, GOOD FOR YOU! You'll be a great mom!"
Bless that wonderful woman.
This is my second pregnancy, with unfortunately no children. This statistics page has given me comfort both times even though no one could have predicted the oddball birth defect that ended my last pregnancy in the second trimester. I suppose I was just one of the unlucky 1% last time, and am so hopeful this time. Thank you for posting it!
The place I work at did the same thing to a temporary type employee when she was pregnant. She had let them know when she was hired that she was pregnant and would be needing a c-secition. But then when the time came she hadn't been at the job for a full year so they said she didn't qualify for FMLA (family medical leave something) and emailed her... (email yes) to say her options were: 1) resign and reapply or 2) call off and get fired after missing work for 4 days.
Needless to say it worries me about my options even though I'm in a different department, with different job type. It will be interesting to see what the ruling is for this and how it affects current policy.
I have a whole big
Totally grabbed from other sources (http://www.fda.gov/Food/FoodborneIllnes ... 393070.htm & http://www.nrdc.org/oceans/seafoodguide/page4.asp) but it mimics a little card that I literally printed out and folded up in my wallet while I was pregnant.
We locked down the universe with the first, still pretty tight with the 2nd, but by the time we had #3 and 4, things got a lot looser. We also had so much more stuff that certain areas that were "dangerous" were now totally inaccessible and irrelevant (yay piles of blankies?)
OMG AKA_LAURA CONGRATULATIONS!