This table attempts to estimate your probability of going into labor on different individual days based on your estimated due date. If you don't know your due date, or just want a handy daily page to tell you where you're at, use the pregnancy calendar.
It's based on the idea that the average pregnancy lasts 40 weeks with a standard deviation of about 10 days. This means you're more likely to go into labor on one of the days close to your due date. For instance, about half of all babies are born within a week of their date. Scroll to the bottom of this page if you want to know more about where I got these numbers.
The following dates are based on an estimated due date of December 20th, 2015.
|Date||Progress||Overall probability of
|Current probability of
|probability of a pregnant woman at this stage going into labor|
|On this date||By this date||On this date||By this date||On this date||Within 3 days||Within 5 days||Within 7 days|
|Sunday November 15th, 2015||35W, 0D||0.01%||0.02%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.1%||0.2%|
|Monday November 16th, 2015||35W, 1D||0.01%||0.03%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.2%||0.3%|
|Tuesday November 17th, 2015||35W, 2D||0.02%||0.05%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.2%||0.4%|
|Wednesday November 18th, 2015||35W, 3D||0.02%||0.07%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.3%||0.6%|
|Thursday November 19th, 2015||35W, 4D||0.03%||0.1%||-%||-%||-%||0.2%||0.4%||0.7%|
|Friday November 20th, 2015||35W, 5D||0.04%||0.13%||-%||-%||-%||0.2%||0.5%||0.9%|
|Saturday November 21st, 2015||35W, 6D||0.06%||0.19%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.3%||0.6%||1.2%|
|Sunday November 22nd, 2015||36W, 0D||0.08%||0.26%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.4%||0.8%||1.5%|
|Monday November 23rd, 2015||36W, 1D||0.1%||0.35%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.5%||1%||1.9%|
|Tuesday November 24th, 2015||36W, 2D||0.14%||0.47%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.6%||1.3%||2.4%|
|Wednesday November 25th, 2015||36W, 3D||0.18%||0.62%||-%||-%||0.2%||0.8%||1.7%||3%|
|Thursday November 26th, 2015||36W, 4D||0.22%||0.82%||-%||-%||0.2%||1%||2.1%||3.7%|
|Friday November 27th, 2015||36W, 5D||0.28%||1.07%||-%||-%||0.3%||1.2%||2.5%||4.5%|
|Saturday November 28th, 2015||36W, 6D||0.35%||1.39%||-%||-%||0.4%||1.5%||3.1%||5.4%|
|Sunday November 29th, 2015||37W, 0D||0.44%||1.79%||-%||-%||0.4%||1.8%||3.8%||6.4%|
|Monday November 30th, 2015||37W, 1D||0.54%||2.28%||-%||-%||0.6%||2.2%||4.5%||7.6%|
|Tuesday December 1st, 2015||37W, 2D||0.66%||2.87%||-%||-%||0.7%||2.7%||5.4%||8.9%|
|Wednesday December 2nd, 2015||37W, 3D||0.79%||3.59%||-%||-%||0.8%||3.2%||6.3%||10.4%|
|Thursday December 3rd, 2015||37W, 4D||0.94%||4.46%||-%||-%||1%||3.8%||7.4%||11.9%|
|Friday December 4th, 2015||37W, 5D||1.11%||5.48%||-%||-%||1.2%||4.4%||8.6%||13.7%|
|Saturday December 5th, 2015||37W, 6D||1.3%||6.68%||-%||-%||1.4%||5.2%||9.8%||15.5%|
|Sunday December 6th, 2015||38W, 0D||1.5%||8.08%||-%||-%||1.6%||6%||11.2%||17.5%|
|Monday December 7th, 2015||38W, 1D||1.71%||9.68%||-%||-%||1.9%||6.9%||12.7%||19.7%|
|Tuesday December 8th, 2015||38W, 2D||1.94%||11.51%||-%||-%||2.2%||7.8%||14.3%||21.9%|
|Wednesday December 9th, 2015||38W, 3D||2.18%||13.57%||-%||-%||2.5%||8.8%||16%||24.2%|
|Thursday December 10th, 2015||38W, 4D||2.42%||15.87%||-%||-%||2.9%||9.9%||17.8%||26.6%|
|Friday December 11th, 2015||38W, 5D||2.66%||18.41%||-%||-%||3.3%||11.1%||19.7%||29%|
|Saturday December 12th, 2015||38W, 6D||2.9%||21.19%||-%||-%||3.7%||12.3%||21.6%||31.5%|
|Sunday December 13th, 2015||39W, 0D||3.12%||24.2%||-%||-%||4.1%||13.5%||23.6%||34%|
|Monday December 14th, 2015||39W, 1D||3.33%||27.43%||-%||-%||4.6%||14.9%||25.6%||36.6%|
|Tuesday December 15th, 2015||39W, 2D||3.52%||30.85%||-%||-%||5.1%||16.2%||27.7%||39.2%|
|Wednesday December 16th, 2015||39W, 3D||3.68%||34.46%||-%||-%||5.6%||17.6%||29.8%||41.7%|
|Thursday December 17th, 2015||39W, 4D||3.81%||38.21%||-%||-%||6.2%||19.1%||31.9%||44.2%|
|Friday December 18th, 2015||39W, 5D||3.91%||42.07%||-%||-%||6.7%||20.6%||34%||46.7%|
|Saturday December 19th, 2015||39W, 6D||3.97%||46.02%||-%||-%||7.4%||22.1%||36.2%||49.2%|
|Sunday December 20th, 2015||40W, 0D||3.99%||50%||-%||-%||8%||23.6%||38.3%||51.6%|
|Monday December 21st, 2015||40W, 1D||3.97%||53.98%||-%||-%||8.6%||25.1%||40.4%||54%|
|Tuesday December 22nd, 2015||40W, 2D||3.91%||57.93%||-%||-%||9.3%||26.7%||42.5%||56.2%|
|Wednesday December 23rd, 2015||40W, 3D||3.81%||61.79%||-%||-%||10%||28.2%||44.5%||58.5%|
|Thursday December 24th, 2015||40W, 4D||3.68%||65.54%||-%||-%||10.7%||29.8%||46.6%||60.6%|
|Friday December 25th, 2015||40W, 5D||3.52%||69.15%||-%||-%||11.4%||31.3%||48.6%||62.7%|
|Saturday December 26th, 2015||40W, 6D||3.33%||72.57%||-%||-%||12.1%||32.9%||50.5%||64.7%|
|Sunday December 27th, 2015||41W, 0D||3.12%||75.8%||-%||-%||12.9%||34.4%||52.4%||66.6%|
|Monday December 28th, 2015||41W, 1D||2.9%||78.81%||-%||-%||13.7%||36%||54.3%||68.5%|
|Tuesday December 29th, 2015||41W, 2D||2.66%||81.59%||-%||-%||14.4%||37.5%||56.1%||70.2%|
|Wednesday December 30th, 2015||41W, 3D||2.42%||84.13%||-%||-%||15.2%||39%||57.9%||71.9%|
|Thursday December 31st, 2015||41W, 4D||2.18%||86.43%||-%||-%||16.1%||40.5%||59.6%||73.5%|
|Friday January 1st, 2016||41W, 5D||1.94%||88.49%||-%||-%||16.9%||42%||61.3%||75.1%|
|Saturday January 2nd, 2016||41W, 6D||1.71%||90.32%||-%||-%||17.7%||43.4%||62.9%||76.4%|
|Sunday January 3rd, 2016||42W, 0D||1.5%||91.92%||-%||-%||18.6%||44.8%||64.5%||77.8%|
|Monday January 4th, 2016||42W, 1D||1.3%||93.32%||-%||-%||19.5%||46.3%||65.9%||79.2%|
|Tuesday January 5th, 2016||42W, 2D||1.11%||94.52%||-%||-%||20.3%||47.6%||67.3%||80.5%|
|Wednesday January 6th, 2016||42W, 3D||0.94%||95.54%||-%||-%||21.1%||48.9%||68.8%||81.6%|
|Thursday January 7th, 2016||42W, 4D||0.79%||96.41%||-%||-%||22%||50.1%||70.2%||82.7%|
|Friday January 8th, 2016||42W, 5D||0.66%||97.13%||-%||-%||23%||51.6%||71.4%||83.6%|
|Saturday January 9th, 2016||42W, 6D||0.54%||97.72%||-%||-%||23.7%||53.1%||72.8%||84.6%|
|Sunday January 10th, 2016||43W, 0D||0.44%||98.21%||-%||-%||24.6%||54.2%||73.7%||85.5%|
|Monday January 11th, 2016||43W, 1D||0.35%||98.61%||-%||-%||25.2%||55.4%||74.8%||86.3%|
|Tuesday January 12th, 2016||43W, 2D||0.28%||98.93%||-%||-%||26.2%||56.1%||75.7%||87.9%|
|Wednesday January 13th, 2016||43W, 3D||0.22%||99.18%||-%||-%||26.8%||57.3%||76.8%||-%|
|Thursday January 14th, 2016||43W, 4D||0.18%||99.38%||-%||-%||29%||58.1%||79%||-%|
|Friday January 15th, 2016||43W, 5D||0.14%||99.53%||-%||-%||29.8%||59.6%||-%||-%|
|Saturday January 16th, 2016||43W, 6D||0.1%||99.65%||-%||-%||28.6%||62.9%||-%||-%|
|Sunday January 17th, 2016||44W, 0D||0.08%||99.74%||-%||-%||30.8%||-%||-%||-%|
|Monday January 18th, 2016||44W, 1D||0.06%||99.81%||-%||-%||31.6%||-%||-%||-%|
|Tuesday January 19th, 2016||44W, 2D||0.04%||99.87%||-%||-%||30.8%||-%||-%||-%|
All percentages are estimates based on mathematical averages and should not be taken terribly seriously... just because you only have 5% chance of going into labor two weeks early, that doesn't mean you should schedule a trip to the bahamas that weekend (see xkcd to get what I mean here).
You should (obviously) listen to your doctor or midwife on all matters related to pregnancy and childbirth. Just because this chart tells you that a 42W pregnant woman has a high chance of delivering in the next seven days, it doesn't mean it's healthy for her to be pregnant for seven more days. If your doctor wants to increase probability of delivery by inducing labor, there's probably a good reason.
Finding good distribution statistics on spontaneous labor is interesting. I have not found a study with an exact daily breakdown of when babies are born. However I have read way too much on this topic, so I can tell you that my favorite published research is The length of human pregnancy as calculated by ultrasonographic measurement of the fetal biparietal diameter (H. Kieler, O. Axelsson, S. Nilsson, U. Waldenströ) which a very nice table of 10 published studies, which found various means between 272-283 days. The study contributes their own results as well, analyzing nearly 2000 mothers who went into labor spontaneously, and there's graphs of what they found. They found a mean around 280 days, and standard deviations between 8-11 days. There's a big list of other studies and answers in the Introduction to my due date survey results.
Which leads to this topic... I am also in the process of collecting my own statistics. If you have had a baby, please take my due date survey. Oddly enough, the numbers I've collected so far support my messy hunch that pregnancy length has a 40-week mean and 9-10 day standard deviation. So go me.
Anyway if you have better research, drop me an e-mail (firstname.lastname@example.org).
Charts are generated by flot.
Checking back in here briefly to report that I've survived the last days of pregnancy and am now mom to an
I survived those last few days through a combination of internet binging, hanging out with friends, and continuing to go to work even though I wasn't getting a lot of work done. While I was in early labor, I went to a talk about gravitational waves, and timed my contractions throughout (they were 7-8 minutes apart at that point). During the talk, I decided that labor contractions are basically the opposite of the gravitational wave signature of a binary black hole merger -- the amplitude and frequency increases until suddenly there are two bodies instead of one! :-)
Wow, congratulations for surviving the last days of your pregnancy! My sister is actually nearing the end of her pregnancy, and I surfed the net and recommended an article to her entitled "Dealing With Crying Babies And Adjusting Your Imperfections"-
I'll come back to this but at 7 we are into feeding herself stage, she can get waffles out of the freezer and use the toaster and get her own cup of (water,milk,juice,etc) even out of the tall cupboards without dying.
Every year seems to get better (I imagine the teen years will reverse this statement)
There's a Bulgarian tradition about the umbilical cord my friend told me about. When the dried little stump falls off your baby, you're supposed to throw it in a place that reflects your child's future, or at least the future you want for them. My friend threw his first son's on to the pitch at a Yankees' game and for his second son he threw it at the stage during a concert!
When my son's cord fell off a few weeks ago, I put it on the counter next to his changing pad then promptly forgot about it. I've no idea where it is now.
Pretty sure this was a spam post but the post itself is kind of interesting. Maybe it could go to Sci & Tech, though it has relevance here as well. I added a link to the
oh re: diaper rash, we found our kiddo was super sensitive and when things go really bad we got something prescribed from the doc that worked *wonders*. IDEK why that stuff isn't marketed, the pharmacist mixed it all up. The doc called it "poop goop" but I dunno what was in it.
I think it depends on the child. Do you ask a newborn if it needs it's diaper changed? Obviously no. Do you help a 13 year old get dressed? Obviously no. Somewhere in there the child matures to the point where they should learn that they own their bodies even if they don't have all the privileges an adult does. This age is going to vary wildly between different children (by widly, I would say 3 year range). I would guess that some kids might be ready for this lesson as early as 3 while others not until they're about to go school. Actually that's a pretty good benchmark, because if you're going to put them in a group with other kids they don't know they should know the rules about touching or being touched.
As far as kissing Grandma, maybe they shouldn't have to do it, but making them do this social communcation helps get them ready for all the other social communication that will be forced on them later. Plus, grandma needs that love to help HER be healthy.
That's good news! I believe a woman should stop taking drugs or drinking alcohol (or smoking) immediately after she had unprotected sex in case she's pregnant. And a woman can be pregnant even if she had sex during period. So, the actions of the authorities seem a necessary measure.
my neighbor's dog is named Gunner? Makes more sense for a bird dog....
I just had a look at your article.
As you say, many comments have been deleted, but that's probably for the best otherwise I'd get mad.
I'm about to have my first child and have had some similarly surprising responses from people when I explain I'm going to be a SAHM; everything from admiration to unsolicited suggestions that a nanny is better than daycare. When I explain that the reason is that I acut ally want to work but my earnings from my two part time jobs would barely cover childcare, it always gets awkward. And then they suggest the whole home daycare/nanny thing again. Even if I could afford it, I'd rather choose the daycare because they have facilities and resources that I don't (I live in a basement apartment, with pretty minimalist furnishings).
I get it. People have strong beliefs about what is 'best', but it's not a one-size-fits-all scenario. And holy crap! If a woman wants and is able to work after having kids, why on earth shouldn't she?
We didn't get the sleepwalking (thankfully) but demonic possession seems about right. It presented a lot like a horrible nightmare with very loud screaming/crying, but we couldn't wake her up from it. She wouldn't remember it at all in the morning, at least. We did find that sometimes we could 'interrupt' it by either singing or telling her stories about something completely random, but what was effective one night often was not effective the next so it was constantly trying something new. Over time the singing seemed to work better and better until they (mostly) went away, but it took a very long time.
I think the hardest was the feeling of complete helplessness to stop it. But like I said she never remembered any of it.
I met a kid about that age who had a geo-caching birthday party and another one who had a roller-skating party. Both sounded awesome. The first one sounded like a whole lot of work to put together.
I don't think it's a cause for immediate concern, but my experience would lead me to talk to a doctor about it. I didn't have a stutter when I was 2. I had language delay. I didn't learn language when kids typically do. Needless to say, I was a very frustrated little kid. When my parents and my pediatrician caught on to it, I had to spend a few years seeing a speech pathologist.
I've read that stuttering is at least partly psychological, but I really can't say more than that. If nothing else, I'd just want to know that his frustration is a necessary part of development like teething and not something that can be avoided.
It's really obvious that the dog is stressed out by the toddler and I'm worried about the times when the kid is showing too much interest in the dog and we're not paying enough attention.
Yeah-stressed out dogs can make for stressful times with toddlers. Toddlers just want to pet and hug, and don't want to listen to pleas to leave the dog alone. We wound up getting an automatic treat dispenser and giving the dog relaxation exercises behind a barrier. So now when the toddler is running the length of the house screaming, the dog can be behind the barrier staring lovingly at her treat dispenser, instead of trying to herd the kid. Of course, it isn't really feasible to keep the dog behind the barriers at all times, but at least it gives us some breaks.
Our behavioralist also recommended Prozac, which took a long time to get the dose right, but has helped the dog be less reactionary and neurotic.
Hi! It's a great idea to throw a party for your Mom. So yeah, invite her good friends and those who she hasn't seen for quite some time already. Prepare some healthy food or you can get a caterer for this tell them to prepare your mom's favorite dishes. Set up a good sound system where they can opt to dance or sing their old fav songs. Request her friends to prepare a great birthday greetings and i'm sure she won't forget this event.
Sassquatch, that's what I was wondering too! A friend who has three kids gave me some great advice about being pregnant. She said, "You're going to get advice from everyone. Feel free to ignore it unless it comes from your doctor!" (And she's a nurse, so for her to even exclude herself from the "advice-giving" permission list was crazy, IMO!)