This table attempts to estimate your probability of going into labor on different individual days based on your estimated due date. If you don't know your due date, or just want a handy daily page to tell you where you're at, use the pregnancy calendar.
It's based on the idea that the average pregnancy lasts 40 weeks with a standard deviation of about 10 days. This means you're more likely to go into labor on one of the days close to your due date. For instance, about half of all babies are born within a week of their date. Scroll to the bottom of this page if you want to know more about where I got these numbers.
The following dates are based on an estimated due date of December 20th, 2014.
|Date||Progress||Overall probability of
|Current probability of
|probability of a pregnant woman at this stage going into labor|
|On this date||By this date||On this date||By this date||On this date||Within 3 days||Within 5 days||Within 7 days|
|Saturday November 15th, 2014||35W, 0D||0.01%||0.02%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.1%||0.2%|
|Sunday November 16th, 2014||35W, 1D||0.01%||0.03%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.2%||0.3%|
|Monday November 17th, 2014||35W, 2D||0.02%||0.05%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.2%||0.4%|
|Tuesday November 18th, 2014||35W, 3D||0.02%||0.07%||-%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.3%||0.6%|
|Wednesday November 19th, 2014||35W, 4D||0.03%||0.1%||-%||-%||-%||0.2%||0.4%||0.7%|
|Thursday November 20th, 2014||35W, 5D||0.04%||0.13%||-%||-%||-%||0.2%||0.5%||0.9%|
|Friday November 21st, 2014||35W, 6D||0.06%||0.19%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.3%||0.6%||1.2%|
|Saturday November 22nd, 2014||36W, 0D||0.08%||0.26%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.4%||0.8%||1.5%|
|Sunday November 23rd, 2014||36W, 1D||0.1%||0.35%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.5%||1%||1.9%|
|Monday November 24th, 2014||36W, 2D||0.14%||0.47%||-%||-%||0.1%||0.6%||1.3%||2.4%|
|Tuesday November 25th, 2014||36W, 3D||0.18%||0.62%||-%||-%||0.2%||0.8%||1.7%||3%|
|Wednesday November 26th, 2014||36W, 4D||0.22%||0.82%||-%||-%||0.2%||1%||2.1%||3.7%|
|Thursday November 27th, 2014||36W, 5D||0.28%||1.07%||0.3%||0.3%||0.3%||1.2%||2.5%||4.5%|
|Friday November 28th, 2014||36W, 6D||0.35%||1.39%||0.4%||0.6%||0.4%||1.5%||3.1%||5.4%|
|Saturday November 29th, 2014||37W, 0D||0.44%||1.79%||0.4%||1%||0.4%||1.8%||3.8%||6.4%|
|Sunday November 30th, 2014||37W, 1D||0.54%||2.28%||0.5%||1.5%||0.6%||2.2%||4.5%||7.6%|
|Monday December 1st, 2014||37W, 2D||0.66%||2.87%||0.7%||2.1%||0.7%||2.7%||5.4%||8.9%|
|Tuesday December 2nd, 2014||37W, 3D||0.79%||3.59%||0.8%||2.8%||0.8%||3.2%||6.3%||10.4%|
|Wednesday December 3rd, 2014||37W, 4D||0.94%||4.46%||0.9%||3.7%||1%||3.8%||7.4%||11.9%|
|Thursday December 4th, 2014||37W, 5D||1.11%||5.48%||1.1%||4.7%||1.2%||4.4%||8.6%||13.7%|
|Friday December 5th, 2014||37W, 6D||1.3%||6.68%||1.3%||5.9%||1.4%||5.2%||9.8%||15.5%|
|Saturday December 6th, 2014||38W, 0D||1.5%||8.08%||1.5%||7.3%||1.6%||6%||11.2%||17.5%|
|Sunday December 7th, 2014||38W, 1D||1.71%||9.68%||1.7%||8.9%||1.9%||6.9%||12.7%||19.7%|
|Monday December 8th, 2014||38W, 2D||1.94%||11.51%||2%||10.8%||2.2%||7.8%||14.3%||21.9%|
|Tuesday December 9th, 2014||38W, 3D||2.18%||13.57%||2.2%||12.9%||2.5%||8.8%||16%||24.2%|
|Wednesday December 10th, 2014||38W, 4D||2.42%||15.87%||2.4%||15.2%||2.9%||9.9%||17.8%||26.6%|
|Thursday December 11th, 2014||38W, 5D||2.66%||18.41%||2.7%||17.7%||3.3%||11.1%||19.7%||29%|
|Friday December 12th, 2014||38W, 6D||2.9%||21.19%||2.9%||20.5%||3.7%||12.3%||21.6%||31.5%|
|Saturday December 13th, 2014||39W, 0D||3.12%||24.2%||3.1%||23.6%||4.1%||13.5%||23.6%||34%|
|Sunday December 14th, 2014||39W, 1D||3.33%||27.43%||3.4%||26.8%||4.6%||14.9%||25.6%||36.6%|
|Monday December 15th, 2014||39W, 2D||3.52%||30.85%||3.5%||30.3%||5.1%||16.2%||27.7%||39.2%|
|Tuesday December 16th, 2014||39W, 3D||3.68%||34.46%||3.7%||33.9%||5.6%||17.6%||29.8%||41.7%|
|Wednesday December 17th, 2014||39W, 4D||3.81%||38.21%||3.8%||37.7%||6.2%||19.1%||31.9%||44.2%|
|Thursday December 18th, 2014||39W, 5D||3.91%||42.07%||3.9%||41.6%||6.7%||20.6%||34%||46.7%|
|Friday December 19th, 2014||39W, 6D||3.97%||46.02%||4%||45.6%||7.4%||22.1%||36.2%||49.2%|
|Saturday December 20th, 2014||40W, 0D||3.99%||50%||4%||49.6%||8%||23.6%||38.3%||51.6%|
|Sunday December 21st, 2014||40W, 1D||3.97%||53.98%||4%||53.6%||8.6%||25.1%||40.4%||54%|
|Monday December 22nd, 2014||40W, 2D||3.91%||57.93%||3.9%||57.6%||9.3%||26.7%||42.5%||56.2%|
|Tuesday December 23rd, 2014||40W, 3D||3.81%||61.79%||3.8%||61.5%||10%||28.2%||44.5%||58.5%|
|Wednesday December 24th, 2014||40W, 4D||3.68%||65.54%||3.7%||65.3%||10.7%||29.8%||46.6%||60.6%|
|Thursday December 25th, 2014||40W, 5D||3.52%||69.15%||3.5%||68.9%||11.4%||31.3%||48.6%||62.7%|
|Friday December 26th, 2014||40W, 6D||3.33%||72.57%||3.4%||72.3%||12.1%||32.9%||50.5%||64.7%|
|Saturday December 27th, 2014||41W, 0D||3.12%||75.8%||3.1%||75.6%||12.9%||34.4%||52.4%||66.6%|
|Sunday December 28th, 2014||41W, 1D||2.9%||78.81%||2.9%||78.6%||13.7%||36%||54.3%||68.5%|
|Monday December 29th, 2014||41W, 2D||2.66%||81.59%||2.7%||81.4%||14.4%||37.5%||56.1%||70.2%|
|Tuesday December 30th, 2014||41W, 3D||2.42%||84.13%||2.4%||84%||15.2%||39%||57.9%||71.9%|
|Wednesday December 31st, 2014||41W, 4D||2.18%||86.43%||2.2%||86.3%||16.1%||40.5%||59.6%||73.5%|
|Thursday January 1st, 2015||41W, 5D||1.94%||88.49%||2%||88.4%||16.9%||42%||61.3%||75.1%|
|Friday January 2nd, 2015||41W, 6D||1.71%||90.32%||1.7%||90.2%||17.7%||43.4%||62.9%||76.4%|
|Saturday January 3rd, 2015||42W, 0D||1.5%||91.92%||1.5%||91.9%||18.6%||44.8%||64.5%||77.8%|
|Sunday January 4th, 2015||42W, 1D||1.3%||93.32%||1.3%||93.3%||19.5%||46.3%||65.9%||79.2%|
|Monday January 5th, 2015||42W, 2D||1.11%||94.52%||1.1%||94.5%||20.3%||47.6%||67.3%||80.5%|
|Tuesday January 6th, 2015||42W, 3D||0.94%||95.54%||0.9%||95.5%||21.1%||48.9%||68.8%||81.6%|
|Wednesday January 7th, 2015||42W, 4D||0.79%||96.41%||0.8%||96.4%||22%||50.1%||70.2%||82.7%|
|Thursday January 8th, 2015||42W, 5D||0.66%||97.13%||0.7%||97.1%||23%||51.6%||71.4%||83.6%|
|Friday January 9th, 2015||42W, 6D||0.54%||97.72%||0.5%||97.7%||23.7%||53.1%||72.8%||84.6%|
|Saturday January 10th, 2015||43W, 0D||0.44%||98.21%||0.4%||98.2%||24.6%||54.2%||73.7%||85.5%|
|Sunday January 11th, 2015||43W, 1D||0.35%||98.61%||0.4%||98.6%||25.2%||55.4%||74.8%||86.3%|
|Monday January 12th, 2015||43W, 2D||0.28%||98.93%||0.3%||98.9%||26.2%||56.1%||75.7%||87.9%|
|Tuesday January 13th, 2015||43W, 3D||0.22%||99.18%||0.2%||99.2%||26.8%||57.3%||76.8%||-%|
|Wednesday January 14th, 2015||43W, 4D||0.18%||99.38%||0.2%||99.4%||29%||58.1%||79%||-%|
|Thursday January 15th, 2015||43W, 5D||0.14%||99.53%||0.1%||99.5%||29.8%||59.6%||-%||-%|
|Friday January 16th, 2015||43W, 6D||0.1%||99.65%||0.1%||99.6%||28.6%||62.9%||-%||-%|
|Saturday January 17th, 2015||44W, 0D||0.08%||99.74%||0.1%||99.7%||30.8%||-%||-%||-%|
|Sunday January 18th, 2015||44W, 1D||0.06%||99.81%||0.1%||99.8%||31.6%||-%||-%||-%|
|Monday January 19th, 2015||44W, 2D||0.04%||99.87%||0%||99.9%||30.8%||-%||-%||-%|
All percentages are estimates based on mathematical averages and should not be taken terribly seriously... just because you only have 5% chance of going into labor two weeks early, that doesn't mean you should schedule a trip to the bahamas that weekend (see xkcd to get what I mean here).
You should (obviously) listen to your doctor or midwife on all matters related to pregnancy and childbirth. Just because this chart tells you that a 42W pregnant woman has a high chance of delivering in the next seven days, it doesn't mean it's healthy for her to be pregnant for seven more days. If your doctor wants to increase probability of delivery by inducing labor, there's probably a good reason.
Finding good distribution statistics on spontaneous labor is interesting. I have not found a study with an exact daily breakdown of when babies are born. However I have read way too much on this topic, so I can tell you that my favorite published research is The length of human pregnancy as calculated by ultrasonographic measurement of the fetal biparietal diameter (H. Kieler, O. Axelsson, S. Nilsson, U. Waldenströ) which a very nice table of 10 published studies, which found various means between 272-283 days. The study contributes their own results as well, analyzing nearly 2000 mothers who went into labor spontaneously, and there's graphs of what they found. They found a mean around 280 days, and standard deviations between 8-11 days. There's a big list of other studies and answers in the Introduction to my due date survey results.
Which leads to this topic... I am also in the process of collecting my own statistics. If you have had a baby, please take my due date survey. Oddly enough, the numbers I've collected so far support my messy hunch that pregnancy length has a 40-week mean and 9-10 day standard deviation. So go me.
Anyway if you have better research, drop me an e-mail (firstname.lastname@example.org).
Charts are generated by flot.
I'm male, but I'm 5'6", I don't like sports, I'm asexual, I have a lousy sense of direction, and I struggle with Mathematics.
I'm from Texas, but I take public transportation, speak English correctly, tend towards agnosticism, and dislike competitive attitudes.
I'm white, but my family isn't wealthy or educated. (I actually kind of wish I fit this one.)
I started up this forum very recently - was going to give it some time to flesh out before I announced it to the world but what the heck, let's jump in the deep end.
I wanted to start our own pregnancy forum for several reasons:
- This site is frequented by smarter-than-average, geeky pregnant women looking up statistics, and I think you'd be nice to talk to more.
- I get the nicest emails from visitors and I think it's a shame that I'm the only one who gets to read your feedback.
- The world deserves a pregnancy forum that is not pink.
- The world deserves a pregnancy forum that is not smothered with ads for formula, stretch mark creams, and weight loss ads about "getting your body back"
- Several of us on spacefem.com are parents and might have some good advice to give. It's still kinda early to tell if I've screwed up my kids, but I'm optimistic.
how about it, pregnant lurkers? is this the kind of place where you could come in and say hi?
So I realize we should celebrate all that we have, but I was a bit surprised that someone in my babycenter month community plans to spend $2000, so far, on christmas presents for her 18-month-old:
http://community.babycenter.com/post/a5 ... or_lo_poll
my child basically wants to go through the trash, she's happy with cardboard boxes, am I the only one who wants to keep Christmas a little downplayed at this age?
last year we wrapped up a hand-me-down baby toy that my oldest had forgotten about, just so the older kid would see her little sister get a gift. we spend $0. this year I may dramatically increase this by getting her some clothes.
bigger kids get more fun to buy for - but even then, it's weird for me to see four-year-olds getting their own ipads, right?
what's your shopping list look like this year? how do you keep it under control?
Yooooooooooooooooo I keep forgetting to tell you I'm in LA until next Saturday and we should grab lunch if you're free!
Wait whaaaaaaaaaat, okay, I'm leaving town tomorrow for Thanksgiving but I'm going to move this discussion to Facebook.
And MFS, of course you should be scared. BAHAHAHAHA
Sometimes I try to see whether the film and the book each stand on their own. If they both do, I don't worry as much about which is better.
When I like the book more: usually it has to do with being so in love with the worldcraft and the descriptions of the book that the film can be entertaining and even moving but just doesn't have the form to develop those things I otherwise loved. See LOTR books (loooove) v. films (love). Sometimes the books are just better, usually because they're in the hands of an author much better than anything the film produced - see Fantastic Voyage by Isaac Asimov, or Dune compared even to David Lynch's version, or the ill-fated attempt to make an Earthsea miniseries.
When I like the film more: when there's something to the film that is brilliant and well-done in its own light. If I come away from the film really liking it, and think the book adds some things but isn't necessary, I like the film more. I'm thinking of Howl's Moving Castle as a good example, since I like the books but love even more its combination with Miyazaki's animation style and storytelling. This also goes for a lot of films that are novelized, like Star Wars. And sorry to the book The Princess Bride, but the film is the first to come to mind.
I fixed the chat pages, sorcery does have a web-based client that's working. next chat day is tuesday!
I forwarded the whole /chat to the wiki so we have one place to edit.
I voted for Juno just before I realized that Saved was an option. I like both, but I'd have to say I like Saved more.
First, humor me a bit. You see the word code-meshing. What do you think of?
I initially thought of some sort of script that recognizes multiple computer programing languages. So the term is new to me and has led me to more questions.
I have Appalacian English influences that come up in my speech at times without my notice. Then I have British English influence, but it only creeps into my spelling. With Appalacian English, I can seperate out what's "wrong" if asked, but I don't do so well categorizing my American spelling and British spelling. Does code-meshing need to be intentional?
Both questions are excellent. This first one I've been talking through a lot with my staff group. Our answer is that it doesn't have to be intentional, but by practicing it we might become more effective at code-meshing. In that way, it is a little like creative writing, where over time all of the genres and elements of writing you've been practicing come out in new and sometimes unanticipated ways. Of course we mix elements of different forms of speech, elements of genres, sayings and metaphors in our own idiolect (the way each individual speaks); practicing particular points of that mixture enriches what we can do there.
I'm rarely in the mood to organize, but when I do it's really gratifying. The biggest thing is DVD's since I have like a thousand. Last time we organized it, we did so by color. I'm not sure what I'll do next.
The rest of the apartment could definitely use some organizing, but that's less fun.
I don't mind people being ignorant, until you point stuff out.
I flipped out on this guy when he said my theoretical description of a "berserker attacking people with his bare hands" (in the theoretical case it might be okay to pull your gun on someone who wasn't armed) that this described Michael Brown "to a tee".
Same deal with the case of the cosplayer who was murdered and supposedly was swinging the sword at people.
Probably didn't happen.
Do you seriously believe the media? The police? Would you believe anyone else accused of murder if they made up these excuses?
But forget eyewitnesses that say he wasn't doing anything.
We only want the witness that hate black people and will lie/misremember to suit their narrative.
Sometimes these days I dunno how far off this is. I wasn't really amused by his response to Ferguson, but I suppose it was the "presidential" thing to say.
did anyone else have to deal with touchy people during their pregnancy? 'cause I did!
and I know they were well-meaning but it was WEIRD, and doubly weird when they'd ask "how's that baby!" and I... had no great response. good I guess? been a while since I called it on the phone?
why do people think it's okay to randomly feel you? and good snarky responses you found that made it stop? or did you just learn to deal?
My occupation used to be "college student/bum" which made it an interesting answer to what I wanted to be when I grew up for sure. Glad to see I wasn't the only one. I changed it, but I already forget what to... probably that I still don't know.
No, not at all. I have nothing stocked in my place.
However I do live less than 2 minutes from a subway which doubles up as a bomb shelter. Handy.
I've had a bit of the opposite reversal of Meperidine. I have always been extremely introverted, but for the past two years I have grown to crave social contact. My spouse is the most introverted person I have ever encountered and my primary social outlet. I think he'd like me to make friends just so I'll leave him alone sometimes. I'm in a class to learn the language now and sometimes I think I could be friends with one of the other foreigners. We can barely communicate with each other, but my current standards for friends-in-the-flesh are fairly low.