Daily odds of pregnancy miscarriage

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This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.

The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of February 6th, 2015.

Change LMP:
Month Day Year
Date Progress Overall probability of miscarriage
Friday February 27th, 2015 3W, 0D 33%
Saturday February 28th, 2015 3W, 1D 32.9%
Sunday March 1st, 2015 3W, 2D 32.6%
Monday March 2nd, 2015 3W, 3D 32%
Tuesday March 3rd, 2015 3W, 4D 31.3%
Wednesday March 4th, 2015 3W, 5D 30.3%
Thursday March 5th, 2015 3W, 6D 29.2%
Friday March 6th, 2015 4W, 0D 28%
Saturday March 7th, 2015 4W, 1D 26.6%
Sunday March 8th, 2015 4W, 2D 25.2%
Monday March 9th, 2015 4W, 3D 23.6%
Tuesday March 10th, 2015 4W, 4D 22.1%
Wednesday March 11th, 2015 4W, 5D 20.5%
Thursday March 12th, 2015 4W, 6D 18.9%
Friday March 13th, 2015 5W, 0D 17.3%
Saturday March 14th, 2015 5W, 1D 15.8%
Sunday March 15th, 2015 5W, 2D 14.4%
Monday March 16th, 2015 5W, 3D 13%
Tuesday March 17th, 2015 5W, 4D 11.7%
Wednesday March 18th, 2015 5W, 5D 10.5%
Thursday March 19th, 2015 5W, 6D 9.4%
Friday March 20th, 2015 6W, 0D 8.4%
Saturday March 21st, 2015 6W, 1D 7.5%
Sunday March 22nd, 2015 6W, 2D 6.6%
Monday March 23rd, 2015 6W, 3D 5.9%
Tuesday March 24th, 2015 6W, 4D 5.3%
Wednesday March 25th, 2015 6W, 5D 4.7%
Thursday March 26th, 2015 6W, 6D 4.3%
Friday March 27th, 2015 7W, 0D 3.9%
Saturday March 28th, 2015 7W, 1D 3.5%
Sunday March 29th, 2015 7W, 2D 3.2%
Monday March 30th, 2015 7W, 3D 3%
Tuesday March 31st, 2015 7W, 4D 2.8%
Wednesday April 1st, 2015 7W, 5D 2.6%
Thursday April 2nd, 2015 7W, 6D 2.5%
Friday April 3rd, 2015 8W, 0D 2.4%
Saturday April 4th, 2015 8W, 1D 2.3%
Sunday April 5th, 2015 8W, 2D 2.2%
Monday April 6th, 2015 8W, 3D 2.2%
Tuesday April 7th, 2015 8W, 4D 2.1%
Wednesday April 8th, 2015 8W, 5D 2.1%
Thursday April 9th, 2015 8W, 6D 2.1%
Friday April 10th, 2015 9W, 0D 2.1%
Saturday April 11th, 2015 9W, 1D 2%
Sunday April 12th, 2015 9W, 2D 2%
Monday April 13th, 2015 9W, 3D 2%
Tuesday April 14th, 2015 9W, 4D 2%
Wednesday April 15th, 2015 9W, 5D 2%
Thursday April 16th, 2015 9W, 6D 2%
Friday April 17th, 2015 10W, 0D 2%
Saturday April 18th, 2015 10W, 1D 2%
Sunday April 19th, 2015 10W, 2D 2%
Monday April 20th, 2015 10W, 3D 2%
Tuesday April 21st, 2015 10W, 4D 2%
Wednesday April 22nd, 2015 10W, 5D 2%
Thursday April 23rd, 2015 10W, 6D 2%
Friday April 24th, 2015 11W, 0D 2%
Saturday April 25th, 2015 11W, 1D 2%
Sunday April 26th, 2015 11W, 2D 2%
Monday April 27th, 2015 11W, 3D 2%
Tuesday April 28th, 2015 11W, 4D 2%
Wednesday April 29th, 2015 11W, 5D 2%
Thursday April 30th, 2015 11W, 6D 2%
Friday May 1st, 2015 12W, 0D 2%
Saturday May 2nd, 2015 12W, 1D 2%
Sunday May 3rd, 2015 12W, 2D 2%
Monday May 4th, 2015 12W, 3D 2%
Tuesday May 5th, 2015 12W, 4D 2%
Wednesday May 6th, 2015 12W, 5D 2%
Thursday May 7th, 2015 12W, 6D 2%

Future probability of miscarriage at a given day

Notes and disclaimers

All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).

I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.

The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.

There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.

Charts are generated by flot.

Recent Comments

For more support, encouragement, Q&A, you are invited to join our pregnancy forum. We are dedicated to answering complicated questions as logically as we possibly can.

how do you travel?

Mon Jun 19 11:00 AM by DarkOne in Pregnancy & Parenting

We're traveling with a 2 yo and a 4yo this week. A 2 hr flight connecting to a 4 hr flight. I broke down and got tablets and headphones, now I just need to load them with movies/games. I'm packing treats and stickers and crayons and notepads. I'm almost positive I'll be carrying on a (very compactable) pillow, 'cause they don't give those out anymore on board. I'm banning toys that can roll several aisles fwd or back when inevitably dropped (besides the crayons). I was planning on gum for ascent/descent, but I think the suckers for the 2yo will be better. I'm so not looking forward to these flights. Maybe the kids will surprise me and be awesome. I'm not worried about the 4yo. But the 2yo...


Bilingual Toddler

Wed May 3 10:19 PM by Nachos in Pregnancy & Parenting

Bilingualism! This is something I know a lot about! My last job was to speak English to my class in a partial immersion school and the kids picked up English so fast but spoke back to me in German. We worked on saying different words in German and in English and it meaning the same thing and I read English books to them. They differentiated pretty well but most of them came from a mono-lingual family background.

I can still highly recommend this book: (https://www.amazon.com/Third-Culture-Ki ... 1857885252) for bilingual children. Some very good advice in there.

Also, keep speaking English! Toddlers forget fast when a language is no longer present.

Yay bilingualism!


New parent help/suggestions

Sat Jan 14 10:07 PM by antfancier in Pregnancy & Parenting

I agree with everything lyra211 said and will add a few more.

Things you don't need:
Anything soft, fluffy or furry. My baby couldn't care less about minky blankets and soft toys. Plus they seem more gross to clean when they get covered in bodily fluids.
Clothes that look like adult clothes. It's so difficult to squeeze baby thighs into miniature corduroys or denim jeans which have no give to the fabric.
Baby washcloths. Babies make a disproportionate amount of mess so you need adult size washcloths to clean them up.

Things that were super useful:
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Balls. They were the first thing he played with and still his favourite toys. At the beginning he liked one made by Oball which was easy to pick up, and a soft fabric one which made a crinkly noise. Now he loves throwing a soft rubber ball and watching it bounce.


development balalnce

Fri Dec 16 5:02 PM by rinn in Pregnancy & Parenting

I was proficient in fine/gross motor skills and cognitive development for my age, but I was further behind in speech/language development and social/emotional development. I caught up in them perhaps by ages 5-7, with vestiges of social issues lasting longer (like my temper). There was nothing inherently bad about being a bit off in timing, though in my case my imbalance was severe enough that I did need professional help from a speech pathologist.

....New social situations make me feel somewhat awkward, but I've also learned that many other people feel the same way about novel contexts, so I think I'm with the curve there.

geez, are you my twin, sonic? XD

I grew up with definite lag in speech/language development. I had a speech pathologist in elementary school work on my -L-'s, -r-'s and -th-'s; and when I essentially "graduated" from it I was taken out of the IEP program. my mom and I now see that being a mistake. middle school went decently, but I struggled in language arts; and by the time I went into high school I was struggling in my history/English humanities course and Algebra. I struggled in English classes because of my inability to express myself through language clearly, and I struggled in algebra because I couldn't follow a thing my teacher was saying (we had someone tutor me who literally asked why she was tutoring me because I grasped the concepts five minutes after her explaining it).


Parents Warned they Could Lose Custody of Fourteen-Year-Old Over This

Mon Nov 7 3:33 AM by garbage videos in Pregnancy & Parenting

It is wrong to lock horses in cages and breed them as if they are slaves.
I sincerely hope that you aren't condoning slavery with that implication that it isn't wrong to keep humans in cages and force them to "breed". It's probably just an unfortunate word choice.
I said it is wrong to put horses in cages and breed them as slaves. So I don't know how you read things. Frankly you are irritating me because I shouldn't have to explain how I said 2+2=4 when you are accusing me of saying 2+2=5. In this age people should have mastered how to read clearly and I shouldn't have to micromanage my text and clear what I have already layed out clearly for you.

To be fair, if the girl is a Female to Male transsexual, her hormones are not so important, at an old age Male hormones will mutate her body and have the same effect. But with boy's its more tragic and serious. Boys who want to be girls, must stop their toxic T at an early age, or else their face will be permanently ugly and bony


Another baby stars

Thu Jun 15 6:54 AM by StarsInUrEye in Pregnancy & Parenting

Thanks for the congratulations and encouragement.

I had an appointment with the obgyn today. He seems to think I'm even farther along than he originally thought. I didn't have an ultrasound. He just went by the size of my uterus. It's well over my belly button now. He's sending me to a high risk Dr. Asap and then I'm suppost to see him again on the 29th. By then he said they will have a better idea as to how far along I actually am. So far the pregnancy is going well. I did have complications with my first one and went to a specialist but this time I'm being referred to one because I'm old lol. They automatically send women when they are 35 and older.


What did I just say?

Wed Mar 15 12:25 PM by mariareese in Pregnancy & Parenting

Looking to know about the system and biology :D hehe ..


Activities for 1-3 yo's

Sat Jan 14 7:07 PM by antfancier in Pregnancy & Parenting

I find theimaginationtree.com has lots of inspiring ideas. Some look like they take quite a bit of prep, but if you're doing it for a whole class then it might be worth it. You can sort activities by age as well so it's easier to search.


Academic redshirting

Wed Dec 7 8:22 PM by Nachos in Pregnancy & Parenting

I'm on the fence about this. I was always the youngest in my class because I was born 2 days before the cut off. I started school JUST after my 5th birthday (Go England.... not...) and this made a huge gap between me and the oldest kids in the class who were almost a whole year older. However, even though I might have struggled more then I'm ok now, you know? It might have even been helpful for me, pushing myself to learn more and try and be smarter. My sister was held back for a year in preschool in Germany because she didn't speak German well enough for the first grade and so she has always been the oldest in class and she's not really as academic as me. This is all anecdata of course, but interesting to ponder over.


kids' obsessions

Sat Oct 15 8:08 PM by melsbells in Pregnancy & Parenting

I could see saunas becoming an obsession for a number of very social reasons as well, depending on your family's sauna practices. I honestly can't think of any common themes or rituals shared by all branches of my U.S. family, other than like eating together, but that seems too banal(/essential for survival) to really become an obsession. My Finnish family, on the other hand, all sauna as a social ritual. Whether or not you allow your kid in saunas yet, if there's a lot of exposure to the ritual, they could probably pick up on the social importance. It might make sense that kids are probably wired to pick up on things that the adults in their life think are important (**not a child psychologist**).
<...> I know I was super into the instant evaporation of water and associated *hissssss* the first time I was in a sauna at like age seven.
This is an excellent point. And although I know they exist, I haven't encountered any Finns who don't like sauna. There are a lot of steps to it. The kid gets to help their grandfather build the fire when we're together, knows that wood burning saunas are better than electric saunas, and absolutely loves the sound of the water hitting the hot stones. I can't imitate the sound as well as the kid does.


To all Moms: Where do you go for financial concerns?

Tue May 9 4:18 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

My father in law does financial advising so we kind of have an in-house advisor? But seriously someone with expertise is great. There are various "how to do finances" through our local community ed, which I'd probably consider if I didn't already have someone to ask. Maybe something like that near you? Libraries also sometimes have programs.

Also I know you can do wills and stuff on your own but honestly I found it super useful to talk through it with a lawyer who does that. She thought of things we never would have. (hm really should revisit now that kid is older) It was a one time fee and not that bad.

We do most of our banking through a credit union. Have been happy with them. We refinanced our mortgage through them when we did that. I remember the big credit union bust ages ago, but there are lots more protections in place now and big banks can be pretty awful.


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Thu Feb 23 1:20 AM by antfancier in Pregnancy & Parenting

My brother's favorite stuffed animal was a thing we called 'gerbil'. I actually don't know what it was because we found it in the street (not sure what my mum was thinking in allowing him to pick it up, let alone keep it) and it had already lost an eye and was unidentifiable, but he became really attached to it. We almost missed a flight once because he dropped it in the airport and we had to go back to look for it.

Today for the first time my 11month old showed interest in a stuffed animal. Just before Christmas we received a box from Amazon with a giant bear inside. No gift wrap, no note. Just a bear the size of my child. It's been sat in his room and ignored completely, despite him exploring literally everything else that is in there. Then, out of the blue, he made a beeline for it and tried to pull its eyes out.


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Wed Jan 4 6:14 AM by Neko in Pregnancy & Parenting

All the pliable/crafty stuff I can think of has been mentioned. ETA: I lied. Bread dough!

But if generally tactile surfaces also apply, mermaid sequin pillows are comforting. It was one of my impulse buys at a department store about a month ago. I couldn't stop petting the display. The sequined side seemed like it wouldn't be comfortable to rest on but it hasn't been an issue. My stepdad really likes them so I got him one for giftmas and he said it helps distract him when chronic pain keeps him awake at night. https://www.etsy.com/listing/470423508/ ... _active_40

I haven't field tested them on my nieces and nephews yet. That could be fun.


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The Wolfpack, a documentary about six bright teenage brothers have spent their entire lives locked away from society in a manhattan housing project. all they know of the outside is gleaned from the movies they watch obsessively (and recreate meticulously). yet as adolescence looms, they dream of escape, ever more urgently, into the beckoning world. The film is coming from the bias that the parents have wronged their children. We're told that in the past they have left the apartment, only as a group, and up to eight times a year. One year they didn't get out at all. It's unclear what the objective of these outings were. The film leaves a lot unanswered. We know they are homeschooled by their mother, who's a certified teacher, but what the homeschooling looked like is never examined. I can't help but think that these kids all around really healthy, charming, affectionate, considerate, welcoming, really only positive adjectives come to mind.


Sleep Training for Parents and Infants

Sat Oct 1 9:34 PM by antfancier in Pregnancy & Parenting

Thank you! I'm currently stuck under 20lbs of sleeping baby because all day time naps have to be in my arms or they don't happen.