This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.
The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of May 26th, 2013.
|Date||Progress||Overall probability of miscarriage|
|Sunday June 16th, 2013||3W, 0D||33%|
|Monday June 17th, 2013||3W, 1D||32.9%|
|Tuesday June 18th, 2013||3W, 2D||32.6%|
|Wednesday June 19th, 2013||3W, 3D||32%|
|Thursday June 20th, 2013||3W, 4D||31.3%|
|Friday June 21st, 2013||3W, 5D||30.3%|
|Saturday June 22nd, 2013||3W, 6D||29.2%|
|Sunday June 23rd, 2013||4W, 0D||28%|
|Monday June 24th, 2013||4W, 1D||26.6%|
|Tuesday June 25th, 2013||4W, 2D||25.2%|
|Wednesday June 26th, 2013||4W, 3D||23.6%|
|Thursday June 27th, 2013||4W, 4D||22.1%|
|Friday June 28th, 2013||4W, 5D||20.5%|
|Saturday June 29th, 2013||4W, 6D||18.9%|
|Sunday June 30th, 2013||5W, 0D||17.3%|
|Monday July 1st, 2013||5W, 1D||15.8%|
|Tuesday July 2nd, 2013||5W, 2D||14.4%|
|Wednesday July 3rd, 2013||5W, 3D||13%|
|Thursday July 4th, 2013||5W, 4D||11.7%|
|Friday July 5th, 2013||5W, 5D||10.5%|
|Saturday July 6th, 2013||5W, 6D||9.4%|
|Sunday July 7th, 2013||6W, 0D||8.4%|
|Monday July 8th, 2013||6W, 1D||7.5%|
|Tuesday July 9th, 2013||6W, 2D||6.6%|
|Wednesday July 10th, 2013||6W, 3D||5.9%|
|Thursday July 11th, 2013||6W, 4D||5.3%|
|Friday July 12th, 2013||6W, 5D||4.7%|
|Saturday July 13th, 2013||6W, 6D||4.3%|
|Sunday July 14th, 2013||7W, 0D||3.9%|
|Monday July 15th, 2013||7W, 1D||3.5%|
|Tuesday July 16th, 2013||7W, 2D||3.2%|
|Wednesday July 17th, 2013||7W, 3D||3%|
|Thursday July 18th, 2013||7W, 4D||2.8%|
|Friday July 19th, 2013||7W, 5D||2.6%|
|Saturday July 20th, 2013||7W, 6D||2.5%|
|Sunday July 21st, 2013||8W, 0D||2.4%|
|Monday July 22nd, 2013||8W, 1D||2.3%|
|Tuesday July 23rd, 2013||8W, 2D||2.2%|
|Wednesday July 24th, 2013||8W, 3D||2.2%|
|Thursday July 25th, 2013||8W, 4D||2.1%|
|Friday July 26th, 2013||8W, 5D||2.1%|
|Saturday July 27th, 2013||8W, 6D||2.1%|
|Sunday July 28th, 2013||9W, 0D||2.1%|
|Monday July 29th, 2013||9W, 1D||2%|
|Tuesday July 30th, 2013||9W, 2D||2%|
|Wednesday July 31st, 2013||9W, 3D||2%|
|Thursday August 1st, 2013||9W, 4D||2%|
|Friday August 2nd, 2013||9W, 5D||2%|
|Saturday August 3rd, 2013||9W, 6D||2%|
|Sunday August 4th, 2013||10W, 0D||2%|
|Monday August 5th, 2013||10W, 1D||2%|
|Tuesday August 6th, 2013||10W, 2D||2%|
|Wednesday August 7th, 2013||10W, 3D||2%|
|Thursday August 8th, 2013||10W, 4D||2%|
|Friday August 9th, 2013||10W, 5D||2%|
|Saturday August 10th, 2013||10W, 6D||2%|
|Sunday August 11th, 2013||11W, 0D||2%|
|Monday August 12th, 2013||11W, 1D||2%|
|Tuesday August 13th, 2013||11W, 2D||2%|
|Wednesday August 14th, 2013||11W, 3D||2%|
|Thursday August 15th, 2013||11W, 4D||2%|
|Friday August 16th, 2013||11W, 5D||2%|
|Saturday August 17th, 2013||11W, 6D||2%|
|Sunday August 18th, 2013||12W, 0D||2%|
|Monday August 19th, 2013||12W, 1D||2%|
|Tuesday August 20th, 2013||12W, 2D||2%|
|Wednesday August 21st, 2013||12W, 3D||2%|
|Thursday August 22nd, 2013||12W, 4D||2%|
|Friday August 23rd, 2013||12W, 5D||2%|
|Saturday August 24th, 2013||12W, 6D||2%|
All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (firstname.lastname@example.org).I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.
The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.
There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.
Charts are generated by flot.
The second someone starts feeling contractions on TV, they have to be raced to the hospital immediately! You almost never see people saying, "Okay, let's get out the timing app!" and waiting until the contractions are five minutes apart.
And so many people end up being delivered by a random dude they know. There's an episode of Fresh Prince where Will delivers a baby. In Star Trek:TNG, Worf delivers Keiko O'Brien's baby. And on and on...
My sister and her husband were glad for mine and our mothers help for limited periods when she just wanted to sleep but we both understood "the look" that said we should go away without her having to actually throw us out. If you don't have that relationship with "S" and can't establish it before the babies born don't guest her at your house.
But it is a really kind offer. Maybe she doesn't know you already have a support system? let her know.
I have no help, but I can offer hugs. *hugs*
We found out, it was a fun detail to learn about our baby, it inspired the Wonder Woman nursery theme. My friends and family didn't go too nuts on the pink. There were a number of weird conversations with people who assumed I would oppose pink. I think pink is a lovely color for a baby to wear, alongside all the others, but people associated feminism with some kind of anti-pink venom that I just don't feel. I guess I feel like eventually, my family and friends are going to know the kid's sex. Our culture will ascribe gender roles to her far before she's conscious of them herself, so she'll have to be taught from a very young age that such things are bullshit. Wether she starts being gendered at 3 months or 3 days doesn't stand to change things significantly, in my view, we still have a long road on that one.
For a good pre-conception book with a lot of science in it, I really enjoyed "The Impatient Woman's Guide to Getting Pregnant". All the science is cited and it's an easy read.
I really liked the book "Origins: How the Nine Months Before Birth Shape the Rest of Our Lives". It contained a lot of information a lot of other books didn't and was fun to read.
For a good reference book, I love the 411 series (Expecting 411, Baby 411, Toddler 411). It has really helpful information in an easy to look up format.
I also have enjoyed reading some essays about motherhood including "Waiting for Birdy" about a woman's second pregnancy while raising a toddler, "The Good Mother Myth: Redefining Motherhood to Fit Reality" which is a collection of essays about motherhood, and "Bringing Up Bebe" for a travelogue while parenting.
I haven't had to go through anything that is this (I imagine) traumatic. However, I have been pregnant five times, and I do only have two children. During my two successful pregnancies (I miscarried very early in the other three) I pretty much had to just stop reading anything at all, because, for me personally, it wasn't reassuring. It just made it worse. No news, baby books, articles, no online communities, nothing. Just made me more paranoid.
After the 3rd miscarriage, I went to grief counseling, and I continued therapy through my pregnancy with my second child, which seemed to help a lot.
I will tell you, if it gives you any peace of mind whatsoever, that I was told after my second miscarriage, when I was only 20 years old, that I would need a hysterectomy and probably never have children. Five years later, I have all my reproductive organs and have two healthy children.
I know what works for me won't for everyone, but you could maybe try some of these things?
Ladies, I am so sorry you're feeling so awful. Do talk to your doctors about this, and expect them to take is seriously. I delayed getting help for way too long because I thought I was just having normal morning sickness and it was NOT normal morning sickness. Once you've tried the usual round of crackers, ginger everything, sea bands, teas, etc. there are prescriptions that can help you stay healthy so you can nurture your growing baby. I had to take enough Zofran and Phenergan to put a horse to sleep and had a healthy, happy baby born to a healthy, happy momma. If things really persist check out http://beyondmorningsickness.com for more options.
kaybee that is a great write-up, thank you for sharing! do you mind if I split this off to its own topic? because it's worth it!
I especially admired the conclusion:
Pretty much the only helpful comment I got from a member of the general public while I was pregnant was this super sweet woman at a lecture. We were chatting, I told her I was expecting my first baby, and a few minutes later I mentioned my friends and I had just gone out to a local sushi place. She got this big smile and said "I didn't have sushi until my third kid, GOOD FOR YOU! You'll be a great mom!"
Bless that wonderful woman.
This is my second pregnancy, with unfortunately no children. This statistics page has given me comfort both times even though no one could have predicted the oddball birth defect that ended my last pregnancy in the second trimester. I suppose I was just one of the unlucky 1% last time, and am so hopeful this time. Thank you for posting it!
The place I work at did the same thing to a temporary type employee when she was pregnant. She had let them know when she was hired that she was pregnant and would be needing a c-secition. But then when the time came she hadn't been at the job for a full year so they said she didn't qualify for FMLA (family medical leave something) and emailed her... (email yes) to say her options were: 1) resign and reapply or 2) call off and get fired after missing work for 4 days.
Needless to say it worries me about my options even though I'm in a different department, with different job type. It will be interesting to see what the ruling is for this and how it affects current policy.
I have a whole big
Totally grabbed from other sources (http://www.fda.gov/Food/FoodborneIllnes ... 393070.htm & http://www.nrdc.org/oceans/seafoodguide/page4.asp) but it mimics a little card that I literally printed out and folded up in my wallet while I was pregnant.
We locked down the universe with the first, still pretty tight with the 2nd, but by the time we had #3 and 4, things got a lot looser. We also had so much more stuff that certain areas that were "dangerous" were now totally inaccessible and irrelevant (yay piles of blankies?)
OMG AKA_LAURA CONGRATULATIONS!