Daily odds of pregnancy miscarriage

Your daily page | Spacefem's Weekly Pregnancy Blog: Week 1

This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.

The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of May 26th, 2013.

Change LMP:
Month Day Year
Date Progress Overall probability of miscarriage
Sunday June 16th, 2013 3W, 0D 33%
Monday June 17th, 2013 3W, 1D 32.9%
Tuesday June 18th, 2013 3W, 2D 32.6%
Wednesday June 19th, 2013 3W, 3D 32%
Thursday June 20th, 2013 3W, 4D 31.3%
Friday June 21st, 2013 3W, 5D 30.3%
Saturday June 22nd, 2013 3W, 6D 29.2%
Sunday June 23rd, 2013 4W, 0D 28%
Monday June 24th, 2013 4W, 1D 26.6%
Tuesday June 25th, 2013 4W, 2D 25.2%
Wednesday June 26th, 2013 4W, 3D 23.6%
Thursday June 27th, 2013 4W, 4D 22.1%
Friday June 28th, 2013 4W, 5D 20.5%
Saturday June 29th, 2013 4W, 6D 18.9%
Sunday June 30th, 2013 5W, 0D 17.3%
Monday July 1st, 2013 5W, 1D 15.8%
Tuesday July 2nd, 2013 5W, 2D 14.4%
Wednesday July 3rd, 2013 5W, 3D 13%
Thursday July 4th, 2013 5W, 4D 11.7%
Friday July 5th, 2013 5W, 5D 10.5%
Saturday July 6th, 2013 5W, 6D 9.4%
Sunday July 7th, 2013 6W, 0D 8.4%
Monday July 8th, 2013 6W, 1D 7.5%
Tuesday July 9th, 2013 6W, 2D 6.6%
Wednesday July 10th, 2013 6W, 3D 5.9%
Thursday July 11th, 2013 6W, 4D 5.3%
Friday July 12th, 2013 6W, 5D 4.7%
Saturday July 13th, 2013 6W, 6D 4.3%
Sunday July 14th, 2013 7W, 0D 3.9%
Monday July 15th, 2013 7W, 1D 3.5%
Tuesday July 16th, 2013 7W, 2D 3.2%
Wednesday July 17th, 2013 7W, 3D 3%
Thursday July 18th, 2013 7W, 4D 2.8%
Friday July 19th, 2013 7W, 5D 2.6%
Saturday July 20th, 2013 7W, 6D 2.5%
Sunday July 21st, 2013 8W, 0D 2.4%
Monday July 22nd, 2013 8W, 1D 2.3%
Tuesday July 23rd, 2013 8W, 2D 2.2%
Wednesday July 24th, 2013 8W, 3D 2.2%
Thursday July 25th, 2013 8W, 4D 2.1%
Friday July 26th, 2013 8W, 5D 2.1%
Saturday July 27th, 2013 8W, 6D 2.1%
Sunday July 28th, 2013 9W, 0D 2.1%
Monday July 29th, 2013 9W, 1D 2%
Tuesday July 30th, 2013 9W, 2D 2%
Wednesday July 31st, 2013 9W, 3D 2%
Thursday August 1st, 2013 9W, 4D 2%
Friday August 2nd, 2013 9W, 5D 2%
Saturday August 3rd, 2013 9W, 6D 2%
Sunday August 4th, 2013 10W, 0D 2%
Monday August 5th, 2013 10W, 1D 2%
Tuesday August 6th, 2013 10W, 2D 2%
Wednesday August 7th, 2013 10W, 3D 2%
Thursday August 8th, 2013 10W, 4D 2%
Friday August 9th, 2013 10W, 5D 2%
Saturday August 10th, 2013 10W, 6D 2%
Sunday August 11th, 2013 11W, 0D 2%
Monday August 12th, 2013 11W, 1D 2%
Tuesday August 13th, 2013 11W, 2D 2%
Wednesday August 14th, 2013 11W, 3D 2%
Thursday August 15th, 2013 11W, 4D 2%
Friday August 16th, 2013 11W, 5D 2%
Saturday August 17th, 2013 11W, 6D 2%
Sunday August 18th, 2013 12W, 0D 2%
Monday August 19th, 2013 12W, 1D 2%
Tuesday August 20th, 2013 12W, 2D 2%
Wednesday August 21st, 2013 12W, 3D 2%
Thursday August 22nd, 2013 12W, 4D 2%
Friday August 23rd, 2013 12W, 5D 2%
Saturday August 24th, 2013 12W, 6D 2%

Future probability of miscarriage at a given day

Notes and disclaimers

All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).

I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.

The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.

There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.

Charts are generated by flot.

Recent Comments

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Advice for surviving the last days of pregnancy?

Fri May 6 1:36 AM by MimCassy in Pregnancy & Parenting

Checking back in here briefly to report that I've survived the last days of pregnancy and am now mom to an adorable 3-week-old!

I survived those last few days through a combination of internet binging, hanging out with friends, and continuing to go to work even though I wasn't getting a lot of work done. While I was in early labor, I went to a talk about gravitational waves, and timed my contractions throughout (they were 7-8 minutes apart at that point). During the talk, I decided that labor contractions are basically the opposite of the gravitational wave signature of a binary black hole merger -- the amplitude and frequency increases until suddenly there are two bodies instead of one! :-)

Wow, congratulations for surviving the last days of your pregnancy! :rainbowsmile: My sister is actually nearing the end of her pregnancy, and I surfed the net and recommended an article to her entitled "Dealing With Crying Babies And Adjusting Your Imperfections"- http://www.milkandlove.com.au/blog/dealing-with-crying-babies-and-adjusting-your-expectations-you-are-not-a-bad-mother/; it is a heartwarming read and serves as a preparation for motherhood. Also, a post from Pathways to Family Wellness- http://pathwaystofamilywellness.org/Pregnancy-Birth/the-pregnancy-circle-preparing-for-motherhood-one-breath-at-a-time.html does a great job answering some FAQ for those that are in the last days of their pregnancy. Hope this helps!


it gets better thread for parents

Mon May 2 3:57 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

I'll come back to this but at 7 we are into feeding herself stage, she can get waffles out of the freezer and use the toaster and get her own cup of (water,milk,juice,etc) even out of the tall cupboards without dying.

Every year seems to get better (I imagine the teen years will reverse this statement)


Umbilical cord

Wed Apr 27 1:26 AM by antfancier in Pregnancy & Parenting

There's a Bulgarian tradition about the umbilical cord my friend told me about. When the dried little stump falls off your baby, you're supposed to throw it in a place that reflects your child's future, or at least the future you want for them. My friend threw his first son's on to the pitch at a Yankees' game and for his second son he threw it at the stage during a concert!

When my son's cord fell off a few weeks ago, I put it on the counter next to his changing pad then promptly forgot about it. I've no idea where it is now.


Sperm Can be Cultivated from Skin Cells

Thu Mar 10 6:56 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

Pretty sure this was a spam post but the post itself is kind of interesting. Maybe it could go to Sci & Tech, though it has relevance here as well. I added a link to the Science article, in case anyone wants to read it.


Advice on dealing with a sick baby

Mon Feb 22 5:28 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

oh re: diaper rash, we found our kiddo was super sensitive and when things go really bad we got something prescribed from the doc that worked *wonders*. IDEK why that stuff isn't marketed, the pharmacist mixed it all up. The doc called it "poop goop" but I dunno what was in it.


young kids, consent and bodily autonomy

Mon May 2 8:46 PM by monk in Pregnancy & Parenting

I think it depends on the child. Do you ask a newborn if it needs it's diaper changed? Obviously no. Do you help a 13 year old get dressed? Obviously no. Somewhere in there the child matures to the point where they should learn that they own their bodies even if they don't have all the privileges an adult does. This age is going to vary wildly between different children (by widly, I would say 3 year range). I would guess that some kids might be ready for this lesson as early as 3 while others not until they're about to go school. Actually that's a pretty good benchmark, because if you're going to put them in a group with other kids they don't know they should know the rules about touching or being touched.

As far as kissing Grandma, maybe they shouldn't have to do it, but making them do this social communcation helps get them ready for all the other social communication that will be forced on them later. Plus, grandma needs that love to help HER be healthy.


Criminalization of drug use during pregnancy to end in Tennessee

Mon May 2 11:14 AM by Lia913 in Pregnancy & Parenting

That's good news! I believe a woman should stop taking drugs or drinking alcohol (or smoking) immediately after she had unprotected sex in case she's pregnant. And a woman can be pregnant even if she had sex during period. So, the actions of the authorities seem a necessary measure.


test out my new name picker

Fri Apr 15 11:41 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

my neighbor's dog is named Gunner? Makes more sense for a bird dog....


Why have children if you want to work (aka it's 1950!)

Tue Mar 8 9:16 PM by antfancier in Pregnancy & Parenting

I just had a look at your article. :thumbup:
As you say, many comments have been deleted, but that's probably for the best otherwise I'd get mad.

I'm about to have my first child and have had some similarly surprising responses from people when I explain I'm going to be a SAHM; everything from admiration to unsolicited suggestions that a nanny is better than daycare. When I explain that the reason is that I acut ally want to work but my earnings from my two part time jobs would barely cover childcare, it always gets awkward. And then they suggest the whole home daycare/nanny thing again. Even if I could afford it, I'd rather choose the daycare because they have facilities and resources that I don't (I live in a basement apartment, with pretty minimalist furnishings).

I get it. People have strong beliefs about what is 'best', but it's not a one-size-fits-all scenario. And holy crap! If a woman wants and is able to work after having kids, why on earth shouldn't she?


warning: when your baby sleeps through the night...

Fri Feb 19 3:18 AM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

We didn't get the sleepwalking (thankfully) but demonic possession seems about right. It presented a lot like a horrible nightmare with very loud screaming/crying, but we couldn't wake her up from it. She wouldn't remember it at all in the morning, at least. We did find that sometimes we could 'interrupt' it by either singing or telling her stories about something completely random, but what was effective one night often was not effective the next so it was constantly trying something new. Over time the singing seemed to work better and better until they (mostly) went away, but it took a very long time.

I think the hardest was the feeling of complete helplessness to stop it. :( But like I said she never remembered any of it.


7th Birthday - Theme Suggestion

Mon May 2 8:18 PM by melsbells in Pregnancy & Parenting

I met a kid about that age who had a geo-caching birthday party and another one who had a roller-skating party. Both sounded awesome. The first one sounded like a whole lot of work to put together.


stuttering at the end of words

Thu Apr 28 9:21 PM by Sonic# in Pregnancy & Parenting

I don't think it's a cause for immediate concern, but my experience would lead me to talk to a doctor about it. I didn't have a stutter when I was 2. I had language delay. I didn't learn language when kids typically do. Needless to say, I was a very frustrated little kid. When my parents and my pediatrician caught on to it, I had to spend a few years seeing a speech pathologist.

I've read that stuttering is at least partly psychological, but I really can't say more than that. If nothing else, I'd just want to know that his frustration is a necessary part of development like teething and not something that can be avoided.


Pets and newborns

Tue Mar 22 2:34 AM by codingchemist in Pregnancy & Parenting

It's really obvious that the dog is stressed out by the toddler and I'm worried about the times when the kid is showing too much interest in the dog and we're not paying enough attention.

Yeah-stressed out dogs can make for stressful times with toddlers. Toddlers just want to pet and hug, and don't want to listen to pleas to leave the dog alone. We wound up getting an automatic treat dispenser and giving the dog relaxation exercises behind a barrier. So now when the toddler is running the length of the house screaming, the dog can be behind the barrier staring lovingly at her treat dispenser, instead of trying to herd the kid. Of course, it isn't really feasible to keep the dog behind the barriers at all times, but at least it gives us some breaks.

Our behavioralist also recommended Prozac, which took a long time to get the dose right, but has helped the dog be less reactionary and neurotic.


Party For My Mom

Thu Mar 3 10:36 PM by curlybae in Pregnancy & Parenting

Hi! It's a great idea to throw a party for your Mom. So yeah, invite her good friends and those who she hasn't seen for quite some time already. Prepare some healthy food or you can get a caterer for this tell them to prepare your mom's favorite dishes. Set up a good sound system where they can opt to dance or sing their old fav songs. Request her friends to prepare a great birthday greetings and i'm sure she won't forget this event.


Flying while pregnant, Split from Cartoons for Little Girls in Feminism

Thu Feb 18 1:01 AM by trillianastra in Pregnancy & Parenting

Sassquatch, that's what I was wondering too! A friend who has three kids gave me some great advice about being pregnant. She said, "You're going to get advice from everyone. Feel free to ignore it unless it comes from your doctor!" (And she's a nurse, so for her to even exclude herself from the "advice-giving" permission list was crazy, IMO!)