spacefem.com

Daily odds of pregnancy miscarriage

Your daily page | Spacefem's Weekly Pregnancy Blog: Week 1

This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.

The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of May 26th, 2013.

Change LMP:
Month Day Year
Date Progress Overall probability of miscarriage
Sunday June 16th, 2013 3W, 0D 33%
Monday June 17th, 2013 3W, 1D 32.9%
Tuesday June 18th, 2013 3W, 2D 32.6%
Wednesday June 19th, 2013 3W, 3D 32%
Thursday June 20th, 2013 3W, 4D 31.3%
Friday June 21st, 2013 3W, 5D 30.3%
Saturday June 22nd, 2013 3W, 6D 29.2%
Sunday June 23rd, 2013 4W, 0D 28%
Monday June 24th, 2013 4W, 1D 26.6%
Tuesday June 25th, 2013 4W, 2D 25.2%
Wednesday June 26th, 2013 4W, 3D 23.6%
Thursday June 27th, 2013 4W, 4D 22.1%
Friday June 28th, 2013 4W, 5D 20.5%
Saturday June 29th, 2013 4W, 6D 18.9%
Sunday June 30th, 2013 5W, 0D 17.3%
Monday July 1st, 2013 5W, 1D 15.8%
Tuesday July 2nd, 2013 5W, 2D 14.4%
Wednesday July 3rd, 2013 5W, 3D 13%
Thursday July 4th, 2013 5W, 4D 11.7%
Friday July 5th, 2013 5W, 5D 10.5%
Saturday July 6th, 2013 5W, 6D 9.4%
Sunday July 7th, 2013 6W, 0D 8.4%
Monday July 8th, 2013 6W, 1D 7.5%
Tuesday July 9th, 2013 6W, 2D 6.6%
Wednesday July 10th, 2013 6W, 3D 5.9%
Thursday July 11th, 2013 6W, 4D 5.3%
Friday July 12th, 2013 6W, 5D 4.7%
Saturday July 13th, 2013 6W, 6D 4.3%
Sunday July 14th, 2013 7W, 0D 3.9%
Monday July 15th, 2013 7W, 1D 3.5%
Tuesday July 16th, 2013 7W, 2D 3.2%
Wednesday July 17th, 2013 7W, 3D 3%
Thursday July 18th, 2013 7W, 4D 2.8%
Friday July 19th, 2013 7W, 5D 2.6%
Saturday July 20th, 2013 7W, 6D 2.5%
Sunday July 21st, 2013 8W, 0D 2.4%
Monday July 22nd, 2013 8W, 1D 2.3%
Tuesday July 23rd, 2013 8W, 2D 2.2%
Wednesday July 24th, 2013 8W, 3D 2.2%
Thursday July 25th, 2013 8W, 4D 2.1%
Friday July 26th, 2013 8W, 5D 2.1%
Saturday July 27th, 2013 8W, 6D 2.1%
Sunday July 28th, 2013 9W, 0D 2.1%
Monday July 29th, 2013 9W, 1D 2%
Tuesday July 30th, 2013 9W, 2D 2%
Wednesday July 31st, 2013 9W, 3D 2%
Thursday August 1st, 2013 9W, 4D 2%
Friday August 2nd, 2013 9W, 5D 2%
Saturday August 3rd, 2013 9W, 6D 2%
Sunday August 4th, 2013 10W, 0D 2%
Monday August 5th, 2013 10W, 1D 2%
Tuesday August 6th, 2013 10W, 2D 2%
Wednesday August 7th, 2013 10W, 3D 2%
Thursday August 8th, 2013 10W, 4D 2%
Friday August 9th, 2013 10W, 5D 2%
Saturday August 10th, 2013 10W, 6D 2%
Sunday August 11th, 2013 11W, 0D 2%
Monday August 12th, 2013 11W, 1D 2%
Tuesday August 13th, 2013 11W, 2D 2%
Wednesday August 14th, 2013 11W, 3D 2%
Thursday August 15th, 2013 11W, 4D 2%
Friday August 16th, 2013 11W, 5D 2%
Saturday August 17th, 2013 11W, 6D 2%
Sunday August 18th, 2013 12W, 0D 2%
Monday August 19th, 2013 12W, 1D 2%
Tuesday August 20th, 2013 12W, 2D 2%
Wednesday August 21st, 2013 12W, 3D 2%
Thursday August 22nd, 2013 12W, 4D 2%
Friday August 23rd, 2013 12W, 5D 2%
Saturday August 24th, 2013 12W, 6D 2%

Future probability of miscarriage at a given day

Notes and disclaimers

All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).

I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.

The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.

There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.

Charts are generated by flot.

Recent Comments

For more support, encouragement, Q&A, you are invited to join our pregnancy forum. We are dedicated to answering complicated questions as logically as we possibly can.

getting along while doing things differently

Wed May 20 9:11 AM by Gnarlbanya in Pregnancy & Parenting

I'm finding it interesting that some people I've encountered (online) presume that if they know one of your pregnancy or parenting preferences or opinions, they can extrapolate them all. For example, in discussing pain relief options recently, after expressing my desire not to have an epidural it was also assumed that I would forego vaccinations for my child and would be automatically pro home VBAC. When I made it clear that this wasn't the case, people were more annoyed than they would have been had I just said I wanted an epidural. There seems to be a really odd sort of tribalism around many of these choices, and a strange playground mentality whereby you can't deviate from the 'norm' (made harder to navigate because different groups have very different norms). For me, my preference to go without an epidural is not out of any desire to have a more natural experience but more because I want to be able to walk around and I find the idea of having a catheter just horrible. That doesn't mean that I judge anyone else's choices or motives that differ from mine, though. I do think it's worth remembering that people may make identical choices for very different reasons.


the worst first birthday invite ever

Wed Apr 29 7:52 PM by melsbells in Pregnancy & Parenting

the understanding that when people buy gifts, it's their way of saying "hey, this says something about me, I want your kid to have it because we have a relationship." two ways.

Except sometimes those gifts are inappropriate. Part of me feels a lot of sympathy for these parents because what can I do with gifted clothing that is already too small for my kid except pass them on? What can I do with gifts that conflict with my personal beliefs, like a racist book that I don't want to inflict on anyone else either?


Tips and pitfalls for gender-neutral parenting

Mon Mar 30 9:25 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

^I agree with that! :)

Part of "gender neutral" parenting is supplying the side of things that doesn't get given by other people.


It takes 13 million calories to raise a child!

Sun Mar 15 6:33 PM by Metcodon1 in Pregnancy & Parenting

Child care is BEYOND insanely expensive... When my husband and I were deciding to to have children we agreed to both go part time (4 days a week) in order to make our lives easier (we both make more than we would pay for day care, so we did take a financial hit with this decision). For example, whoever is home on a given day can throw in some laundry, or some food into the slow cooker, run errands... All of these things multiply in number once you have kids at the same time becoming more difficult to schedule. Unfortunately, when my daughter was around 1 my work situation changed and I had to go full time... let me tell you, it was definitely easier when I wasn't.

Anyway, the point I am getting to here is, when kids are little they require a lot of attention and sometimes (often?) some career sacrifice but it's TEMPORARY. When we decided to get pregnant we agreed that we would both slow down career wise for 5 years. For us it means, we do our jobs, we come home. We don't sign up for extra projects, we try to limit our travel, but it's all just for now. We also decided to have our kids close together for that reason (they'll be 2 years apart). Anyway, it's something to keep in mind. An 8 year old goes to school and doesn't need constant monitoring to keep from killing him/herself. It's ok to decide to slow down for a period of time, knowing that you'll come roaring back once they're older.


Because judging other parents is absurd.

Tue Feb 3 7:05 AM by Zeph in Pregnancy & Parenting

It's alright to discuss these topics, but there needs to be boundaries. I would use the following, personally:

1. Don't insert yourself into a stranger's situation or bring up the topic yourself to a stranger.
2. It's probably not your business if you're not a parent yourself.
3. Ask the person why they are making these choices, don't assume.
4. Try to end on a positive note.

I don't feel right bringing up to my sister that I don't agree that she spanks my nephew, but after being a teacher, I am pretty forgiving of parents' choices. It's the hardest role there is. Even though I want to raise my children on nutritious meals, cloth diapers, and museum passes, I know I'm going to slip up and give them fries, Huggies, and Disney DVD's.

I also feel that home birth is a fine option for low-risk births, where the mother is well coached and the midwife is reputable. If you live near a hospital and your midwife is highly qualified, why not? They have equipment. I won't be choosing this option, but with any birth plan there needs to be a series of precautions taken.


Can't find my tribe

Sat May 9 9:25 PM by Nedra in Pregnancy & Parenting

We've found relatively like-minded parents in the following ways:

-We went to undergrad at a liberal arts college and most of our alumni friends live in town still.
-I worked for 5 years at a charter school that was "girl-focused" (meaning, it was a girls school and any student who identified as a girl -- either biologically or socially -- could attend as long as they were cool with being part of a community of girls). Deconstructing sexism, heterosexism and racism was part of our mission and so the staff was very like-minded in this regard.

That's where virtually all my local, like-minded parents came from. Our church is pretty open-minded too. I don't know that I've ever seen a boy in a dress there, but I can't really imagine anyone batting an eye if we did. Certainly lots of boys playing with dolls and girls with trucks in the nursery.

When my own parents were in this position, they started a "non-sexist parenting group." Basically, they found ONE family who felt the same way, that family knew another, etc. They built a community intentionally by voicing out loud that that was what they wanted and spreading the word. They also found a lot of like-minded people through church. We are hippy-church and hippy-daycare/school people, so that helps.


Bilingual Babies

Mon Apr 13 11:41 AM by sakooon in Pregnancy & Parenting

Spacefem's husband no longer speaking Spanish and Nachos no longer speaking Dutch, I think are great examples of lacking motivation. Likewise, I had mentioned that my kid is unlikely to pick up Swedish, despite 10% of the population being native Swedish speakers, Swedish being one of the offical languages and therefore alongside Finnish everywhere, and having a Swedish speaking uncle.???


Interacting with parents whose choices you don't trust

Thu Mar 26 3:08 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

How can you tell who has been vaccinated or not?
That's the tricky part, you can't really. So unless the parents say something you never actually know.


How did you decide how many kids to have?

Fri Feb 27 2:42 AM by MFS in Pregnancy & Parenting

First 2 were on purpose, 3rd kinda not so much, 4th was totally an oops (when you think things are broken, they have this habit of fixing themselves). Made sure we were done after that. Aside from that, we knew we'd have at least 2, likely 3, but the timing was not at all what we thought we were "planning". Such is life.


34 Weeks

Fri Jan 23 11:57 PM by Sonic# in Pregnancy & Parenting

Probably not. As we pointed out in the other topic, 34 weeks isn't even on the chart because it's so rare:
http://spacefem.com/pregnant/charts/duedate1.php

You'd be better off worrying over a car accident.


The responsibility of choosing a name

Wed Apr 29 8:02 PM by melsbells in Pregnancy & Parenting

I fretted way too much about this.

Finland is one of the countries in the world with an approved name list. People can deviate from the list, but then they need to participate in bureacracy. Foreigners often get approval for names from their home culture, but as someone from the U.S., I'm not sure how straightforward it is to say "this cultural name appropriately represents my culture". Do I pick the cultures of my ancestors or modern U.S. conglomeration?

We went with approved names, but not the Swedish ones because my spouse felt weird giving a Swedish name without Swedish heritage. The Swedish names would have been most easily recognizable for my family.

Our main criteria ended up including:
Finnish
I could pronounce it
we didn't hate the way Americans would pronounce it

We had to eliminate one contender because I sometimes mispronounced it, turning the name into a word that meant "failure".


Advice for non-parents?

Tue Apr 7 8:56 PM by Nedra in Pregnancy & Parenting

I definitely agree on the flexibility of where to meet. It makes a huge difference when you aren't stressed about your kid in a public place. Recently, I went to a tea shop with my daughter. Not only was the layout of the seating area very conducive to letting a toddler walk around a bit while still keeping a close eye on her, but there was plenty of room for my stroller and plenty of available tables. That is rare! It wasn't a huge space, but it was just laid out well for what we needed. I will definitely be suggesting it the next time a friend asks if we can get together. Let your parent friends choose the location! They know which places have changing tables and room to park a stroller.


How Good Parents Miss Child Sexual Abuse and 5 Questions to Change That

Tue Mar 24 3:20 AM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

And that includes parents too - I try to always ask "can I have a hug/kiss" rather than "give me a hug/kiss" and that she can always always say no if she doesn't want to, even with me. (She's old enough now that I've had enough practice that even writing "give me a hug" sounds weird to me)

Also I think on a more general level it's good to practice asking these kinds of questions anyway. Not just for abuse, but in general if you want to know what's going on in their life. Asking "how was school" gets an "I dunno" even now, but asking more specific things like "What was something funny that happened today" or "What did you do at recess?" really gets her talking more. Not sure where I read that, but the kinds of questions above made me think that sometimes just asking a better question will help get at what you want to know more than asking generalities.

The other thing is definitely definitely not making judgment on those things that they're saying. Instead try "What did you think about that ?" or "What did you do when happened?" "What would make you feel safe?" "What could you try if that happens again?" "Is there anything you'd like me to do?" These are things that I've asked wrt other kids on the playground (pushing etc) but I think it's the same idea in terms of empowering the child to talk about things that happen and letting them help come to the conclusions. Which isn't to say you can't help them get there by suggesting actions they could do, etc, just that if you get them talking about things that happen on a daily basis then if something weird happens then they'll likely be more comfortable telling you, especially if you've already shown them what boundaries there are and respecting those boundaries (like not tickling if they say they don't want to be tickled etc).


Bonding

Fri Feb 6 4:35 AM by Zeph in Pregnancy & Parenting

Bonding with my future infant is a concern of mine, because my depression is debilitating. I'm relieved to know that normally functioning women don't feel that head-over-heels mushy baby love.


sleep humor

Fri Jan 23 7:13 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

Here's a really funny humor bit about sleep, but the same general idea can apply to pretty much any "advice" given to new parents.

"I bought all the top books on baby sleep and development. I read through them all, as well as several blogs and sleep websites. I gathered lots of advice:"

https://chimericalcapuchin.wordpress.co ... babybooks/