Daily odds of pregnancy miscarriage

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This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.

The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of May 26th, 2013.

Change LMP:
Month Day Year
Date Progress Overall probability of miscarriage
Sunday June 16th, 2013 3W, 0D 33%
Monday June 17th, 2013 3W, 1D 32.9%
Tuesday June 18th, 2013 3W, 2D 32.6%
Wednesday June 19th, 2013 3W, 3D 32%
Thursday June 20th, 2013 3W, 4D 31.3%
Friday June 21st, 2013 3W, 5D 30.3%
Saturday June 22nd, 2013 3W, 6D 29.2%
Sunday June 23rd, 2013 4W, 0D 28%
Monday June 24th, 2013 4W, 1D 26.6%
Tuesday June 25th, 2013 4W, 2D 25.2%
Wednesday June 26th, 2013 4W, 3D 23.6%
Thursday June 27th, 2013 4W, 4D 22.1%
Friday June 28th, 2013 4W, 5D 20.5%
Saturday June 29th, 2013 4W, 6D 18.9%
Sunday June 30th, 2013 5W, 0D 17.3%
Monday July 1st, 2013 5W, 1D 15.8%
Tuesday July 2nd, 2013 5W, 2D 14.4%
Wednesday July 3rd, 2013 5W, 3D 13%
Thursday July 4th, 2013 5W, 4D 11.7%
Friday July 5th, 2013 5W, 5D 10.5%
Saturday July 6th, 2013 5W, 6D 9.4%
Sunday July 7th, 2013 6W, 0D 8.4%
Monday July 8th, 2013 6W, 1D 7.5%
Tuesday July 9th, 2013 6W, 2D 6.6%
Wednesday July 10th, 2013 6W, 3D 5.9%
Thursday July 11th, 2013 6W, 4D 5.3%
Friday July 12th, 2013 6W, 5D 4.7%
Saturday July 13th, 2013 6W, 6D 4.3%
Sunday July 14th, 2013 7W, 0D 3.9%
Monday July 15th, 2013 7W, 1D 3.5%
Tuesday July 16th, 2013 7W, 2D 3.2%
Wednesday July 17th, 2013 7W, 3D 3%
Thursday July 18th, 2013 7W, 4D 2.8%
Friday July 19th, 2013 7W, 5D 2.6%
Saturday July 20th, 2013 7W, 6D 2.5%
Sunday July 21st, 2013 8W, 0D 2.4%
Monday July 22nd, 2013 8W, 1D 2.3%
Tuesday July 23rd, 2013 8W, 2D 2.2%
Wednesday July 24th, 2013 8W, 3D 2.2%
Thursday July 25th, 2013 8W, 4D 2.1%
Friday July 26th, 2013 8W, 5D 2.1%
Saturday July 27th, 2013 8W, 6D 2.1%
Sunday July 28th, 2013 9W, 0D 2.1%
Monday July 29th, 2013 9W, 1D 2%
Tuesday July 30th, 2013 9W, 2D 2%
Wednesday July 31st, 2013 9W, 3D 2%
Thursday August 1st, 2013 9W, 4D 2%
Friday August 2nd, 2013 9W, 5D 2%
Saturday August 3rd, 2013 9W, 6D 2%
Sunday August 4th, 2013 10W, 0D 2%
Monday August 5th, 2013 10W, 1D 2%
Tuesday August 6th, 2013 10W, 2D 2%
Wednesday August 7th, 2013 10W, 3D 2%
Thursday August 8th, 2013 10W, 4D 2%
Friday August 9th, 2013 10W, 5D 2%
Saturday August 10th, 2013 10W, 6D 2%
Sunday August 11th, 2013 11W, 0D 2%
Monday August 12th, 2013 11W, 1D 2%
Tuesday August 13th, 2013 11W, 2D 2%
Wednesday August 14th, 2013 11W, 3D 2%
Thursday August 15th, 2013 11W, 4D 2%
Friday August 16th, 2013 11W, 5D 2%
Saturday August 17th, 2013 11W, 6D 2%
Sunday August 18th, 2013 12W, 0D 2%
Monday August 19th, 2013 12W, 1D 2%
Tuesday August 20th, 2013 12W, 2D 2%
Wednesday August 21st, 2013 12W, 3D 2%
Thursday August 22nd, 2013 12W, 4D 2%
Friday August 23rd, 2013 12W, 5D 2%
Saturday August 24th, 2013 12W, 6D 2%

Future probability of miscarriage at a given day

Notes and disclaimers

All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).

I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.

The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.

There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.

Charts are generated by flot.

Recent Comments

For more support, encouragement, Q&A, you are invited to join our pregnancy forum. We are dedicated to answering complicated questions as logically as we possibly can.

kids' obsessions

Sat Oct 15 8:08 PM by melsbells in Pregnancy & Parenting

I could see saunas becoming an obsession for a number of very social reasons as well, depending on your family's sauna practices. I honestly can't think of any common themes or rituals shared by all branches of my U.S. family, other than like eating together, but that seems too banal(/essential for survival) to really become an obsession. My Finnish family, on the other hand, all sauna as a social ritual. Whether or not you allow your kid in saunas yet, if there's a lot of exposure to the ritual, they could probably pick up on the social importance. It might make sense that kids are probably wired to pick up on things that the adults in their life think are important (**not a child psychologist**).
<...> I know I was super into the instant evaporation of water and associated *hissssss* the first time I was in a sauna at like age seven.
This is an excellent point. And although I know they exist, I haven't encountered any Finns who don't like sauna. There are a lot of steps to it. The kid gets to help their grandfather build the fire when we're together, knows that wood burning saunas are better than electric saunas, and absolutely loves the sound of the water hitting the hot stones. I can't imitate the sound as well as the kid does.

bringing children up naturist

Sat Sep 24 1:18 AM by filmmakingally in Pregnancy & Parenting

It's about teaching children to make love so that they do it themselves. Love has no age or genetic requirement. It's healthy for young siblings to make love, and it's unhealthy if they don't. Sexual repression of children fucks them up as adults. Because the parents are secretive about it, children get the idea that it's bad, which starts the process of sexual repression.

Gross. Yuck. Eww. I've run out of ways to express how disgusted I am with what you've said here. Ewwwwwww!!!!!!!

No, siblings should not make love. It is in our genetic interest that we don't do this. Ever. This is a cultural universal.

Middle grade / Beginning Chapter Books

Fri Sep 9 8:01 PM by melsbells in Pregnancy & Parenting

I think a big driver in getting them to read is to find stories that they like.
Definitely this. I once tutored a kid who had been held back twice in elementary school and was still a couple grade levels behind on reading skills. He was given a book from the Captain Underpants series because it was supposed to be at his reading level but he thought it was utterly stupid. I don't think we ever found books that both matched his reading level and maturity level, but once we started reading books better suited to his interests, it didn't matter that they were more difficult.

One of my cousins kids read the Warriors series and was really into it. She was bulllied in school, but I don't think it was instigated by her reading choices.

I don't know any recent books for this age group but I've heard great things about the Adventure Time comics.

Carriers vs Ring Sling

Mon Sep 5 8:59 PM by melsbells in Pregnancy & Parenting

^That's funny because the bjorn carrier is the one I was given that I didn't like. I think that just re-emphasizes that the same thing isn't going to work the same for everyone.

Public Service Announcement: Furniture Anchors!

Fri Jul 1 5:17 AM by cwbyrvr in Pregnancy & Parenting

I do find it very interesting to find that IKEA is recalling furniture because people don't secure it to walls... I was given anchors with all of the stuff I've bought from there. Though maybe that's only a somewhat recent thing? It was over a half a year ago that I bought stuff from there, though.

And I didn't use the anchors... I guess I am about to be an aunt and it might be a good idea to get that stuff secured in case I ever end up watching my niece here. Hadn't really worried about it prior because there was literally never going to be a time I'd have kids running around this place. The likelihood of my niece ever being here is pretty damn low too, but I wouldn't say 0%.

Sleep Training for Parents and Infants

Sat Oct 1 9:34 PM by antfancier in Pregnancy & Parenting

Thank you! I'm currently stuck under 20lbs of sleeping baby because all day time naps have to be in my arms or they don't happen.

Don't give your kids antidepressants.

Thu Sep 15 9:13 PM by Nachos in Pregnancy & Parenting

Mental health issues will never start to hurt, therefore no preemptive treatment is needed.

Mental health issues hurt, take it from me. There are many psychosomatic disorders out there which affect your body even though the real problem is in your mind. But to get better, you HAVE to treat both. Pre-emptive treatment also can stop some disorders from becoming too bad. And yes, sometimes drugs can be very very helpful.

I don't think you know what you're talking about and all this "I know because of divine intuition" bullshit is starting to piss me off. if you ask others for sources, be kind enough to provide some yourself.

If this thread continues to be shit-slinging, I will lock it.

How NOT to help parents with a newborn

Fri Jul 22 6:11 PM by missmay in Pregnancy & Parenting

oh, lord, i am so tired of people telling me to "enjoy it!" regarding my newborn. and asking me if she is a "good baby." how could a baby be bad? and how does it make me enjoy her more to be reminded to do so? i imagine that if i was depressed and had a colicky baby these questions would be even more obnoxious.

Kids are full of LIES

Sun May 22 2:29 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

Don't be silly monk, everyone knows a good conglomerate goes better with milk

Cry it out vs. Attachment

Mon Sep 26 12:12 AM by lyra211 in Pregnancy & Parenting

We sort of went middle-of-the-road. In the beginning, we had the sidecar cosleeper, and that worked great. Baby woke up a lot at night because he was a newborn, but I could pick him up, feed him, and put him back down without getting out of bed. He seemed to pretty much only be waking up if he was hungry, and settled pretty well after that, so all was good with the world (yes, there were nights when we'd have to get up and bounce on the yoga ball for a while, but we never had the horrific newborn nights that we seem to hear about where he was inconsolable at 2am). He started sleeping longer stretches and was sleeping one 8-9 hour stretch per night by the time he was two months old.

Around 3 months as he started getting more sensitive to noise, our nighttime rustlings would wake him up -- and if it wasn't my husband or me rustling it was the dog, who also sleeps in our room. It got to the point where I was so worried about someone waking him up that if I heard anyone moving in the night I'd instantly be alert and ready to murder someone if the baby woke up, and then even if the baby didn't wake up I was all keyed up and would have trouble falling back asleep. So for about a month, I moved myself to the floor of the baby's room. He transitioned easily into the crib, but I slept on the floor of his room every night and fed him when he woke up hungry.

learning to use a toilet

Sun Sep 11 2:33 PM by Angelica in Pregnancy & Parenting

My statement was meant to indicate that I'm not finished with my thoughts on this topic, rather than to create drama.

I believe parents in this world universally make a big mistake when it comes time to start thinking about their children using the toilet. Kids feel forced to do it, and this breeds resentment and damages their self-esteem. Having the father (the mother is needed in the battle against the patriarchy) stay home with the children and homeschool them while they haven't yet decided to train themselves is the way to avoid humiliation by their more-repressed peers.

I would also like to point out that limiting elimination to the toilet at any age creates situations where the person's health is compromised due to the lack of availability of a bathroom. In these situations, I strongly advise parents to let their children wear diapers no matter their age. Retention can lead to kidney stones, intestinal damage, urinary tract infections and harmful bacteria and toxins in the bloodstream.

How to Announce Baby #4?

Thu Sep 8 5:00 AM by Carol Palmer in Pregnancy & Parenting

FB pic is the best idea. All your friends and relatives can definitely post in comments or expressions . Consider yourself lucky to have many children. They are a blessing from God

Denial Trends?

Thu Jul 21 7:24 PM by SameMom in Pregnancy & Parenting

Sorry, if I was not able to mention other details. Actually, I have a (US) medicare insurance. And I am particularly referring to this denial management software which help clients with their claims. Thanks for your reply. :)

Pregnancy Guidebooks for Cool Moms (humor)

Wed May 11 3:39 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

One of my friends is part of this magazine. She didn't write this one but it's pretty hilarious.

http://theoffingmag.com/wits-end/pregna ... cool-moms/

Anyone want to come up with our own "Guidebook" titles?

the one about inducing labor by setting your hair on fire is my favorite