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Daily odds of pregnancy miscarriage

Your daily page | Spacefem's Weekly Pregnancy Blog: Week 1

This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.

The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of May 26th, 2013.

Change LMP:
Month Day Year
Date Progress Overall probability of miscarriage
Sunday June 16th, 2013 3W, 0D 33%
Monday June 17th, 2013 3W, 1D 32.9%
Tuesday June 18th, 2013 3W, 2D 32.6%
Wednesday June 19th, 2013 3W, 3D 32%
Thursday June 20th, 2013 3W, 4D 31.3%
Friday June 21st, 2013 3W, 5D 30.3%
Saturday June 22nd, 2013 3W, 6D 29.2%
Sunday June 23rd, 2013 4W, 0D 28%
Monday June 24th, 2013 4W, 1D 26.6%
Tuesday June 25th, 2013 4W, 2D 25.2%
Wednesday June 26th, 2013 4W, 3D 23.6%
Thursday June 27th, 2013 4W, 4D 22.1%
Friday June 28th, 2013 4W, 5D 20.5%
Saturday June 29th, 2013 4W, 6D 18.9%
Sunday June 30th, 2013 5W, 0D 17.3%
Monday July 1st, 2013 5W, 1D 15.8%
Tuesday July 2nd, 2013 5W, 2D 14.4%
Wednesday July 3rd, 2013 5W, 3D 13%
Thursday July 4th, 2013 5W, 4D 11.7%
Friday July 5th, 2013 5W, 5D 10.5%
Saturday July 6th, 2013 5W, 6D 9.4%
Sunday July 7th, 2013 6W, 0D 8.4%
Monday July 8th, 2013 6W, 1D 7.5%
Tuesday July 9th, 2013 6W, 2D 6.6%
Wednesday July 10th, 2013 6W, 3D 5.9%
Thursday July 11th, 2013 6W, 4D 5.3%
Friday July 12th, 2013 6W, 5D 4.7%
Saturday July 13th, 2013 6W, 6D 4.3%
Sunday July 14th, 2013 7W, 0D 3.9%
Monday July 15th, 2013 7W, 1D 3.5%
Tuesday July 16th, 2013 7W, 2D 3.2%
Wednesday July 17th, 2013 7W, 3D 3%
Thursday July 18th, 2013 7W, 4D 2.8%
Friday July 19th, 2013 7W, 5D 2.6%
Saturday July 20th, 2013 7W, 6D 2.5%
Sunday July 21st, 2013 8W, 0D 2.4%
Monday July 22nd, 2013 8W, 1D 2.3%
Tuesday July 23rd, 2013 8W, 2D 2.2%
Wednesday July 24th, 2013 8W, 3D 2.2%
Thursday July 25th, 2013 8W, 4D 2.1%
Friday July 26th, 2013 8W, 5D 2.1%
Saturday July 27th, 2013 8W, 6D 2.1%
Sunday July 28th, 2013 9W, 0D 2.1%
Monday July 29th, 2013 9W, 1D 2%
Tuesday July 30th, 2013 9W, 2D 2%
Wednesday July 31st, 2013 9W, 3D 2%
Thursday August 1st, 2013 9W, 4D 2%
Friday August 2nd, 2013 9W, 5D 2%
Saturday August 3rd, 2013 9W, 6D 2%
Sunday August 4th, 2013 10W, 0D 2%
Monday August 5th, 2013 10W, 1D 2%
Tuesday August 6th, 2013 10W, 2D 2%
Wednesday August 7th, 2013 10W, 3D 2%
Thursday August 8th, 2013 10W, 4D 2%
Friday August 9th, 2013 10W, 5D 2%
Saturday August 10th, 2013 10W, 6D 2%
Sunday August 11th, 2013 11W, 0D 2%
Monday August 12th, 2013 11W, 1D 2%
Tuesday August 13th, 2013 11W, 2D 2%
Wednesday August 14th, 2013 11W, 3D 2%
Thursday August 15th, 2013 11W, 4D 2%
Friday August 16th, 2013 11W, 5D 2%
Saturday August 17th, 2013 11W, 6D 2%
Sunday August 18th, 2013 12W, 0D 2%
Monday August 19th, 2013 12W, 1D 2%
Tuesday August 20th, 2013 12W, 2D 2%
Wednesday August 21st, 2013 12W, 3D 2%
Thursday August 22nd, 2013 12W, 4D 2%
Friday August 23rd, 2013 12W, 5D 2%
Saturday August 24th, 2013 12W, 6D 2%

Future probability of miscarriage at a given day

Notes and disclaimers

All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).

I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.

The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.

There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.

Charts are generated by flot.

Recent Comments

For more support, encouragement, Q&A, you are invited to join our pregnancy forum. We are dedicated to answering complicated questions as logically as we possibly can.

Bilingual Babies

Mon Mar 2 7:38 PM by Nachos in Pregnancy & Parenting

I am/was a bilingual kid. I am now a bilingual (in another language though) adult. My mother is Dutch and I was born in England so I grew up speaking and understanding English and Dutch. I don't believe I had any problems up until my first day at school when apparently I came home saying "I don't want to speak that funny language any more!" and since my mother was told my doctors and teachers to only speak one language to your kid, I ended up forgetting it all.

Later on (when I was 11) we ended up moving to a Dutch speaking country and even though I was immersed in school I had to learn it all over again. Funnily enough, after about 7 months something clicked and the language started to come back.

Next problem was then we moved to Germany and even though the languages are similar, they are not the same. It took me about three years (immersed again) while learning German too for something to click and I started to also dream in German.

My Dutch teacher in the Dutch country had a grandson who spoke 4 languages fluently at the age of 6. He could differentiate between them too.


Breastfeeding & accoutrements thereof

Thu Feb 26 5:28 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

My boobs are small, and this is important for a couple of reasons: At any one time I can only produce a max of about 6 oz.
Actually, the physical size of your boobs doesn't have much to do with how much you produce. There are lots of small-breasted women who produce a lot and lots of large-breasted women who don't. It's mostly genetic and some other variables thrown in (e.g. if there was a lot of BPA in your mom when you were in utero can affect it, we're finding out).


Keeping your pre-pregnancy/parenthood identity

Thu Jan 29 4:36 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

You don't have to post at all if you don't want to! But we're here to offer support if you do want to.

I have very little time sans baby anymore
This does get a little better over time, when they're a little more autonomous. Though I still long for the day when I can just freaking go to the bathroom all by myself. (I seriously spent like 20 minutes in the bathroom the other day while the hubby was watching the kid @ a birthday party, just for that reason. I mean how sad does that sound?)

I know he requires more alone time than I do, and I know he isn't getting any more than I am.
Any chance of arranging a tag-team schedule?


sleep humor

Fri Jan 23 7:13 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

Here's a really funny humor bit about sleep, but the same general idea can apply to pretty much any "advice" given to new parents.

"I bought all the top books on baby sleep and development. I read through them all, as well as several blogs and sleep websites. I gathered lots of advice:"

https://chimericalcapuchin.wordpress.co ... babybooks/


Why Pocket Diapers Are Better Than Disposables

Sun Jan 11 3:31 PM by Nancy Erick in Pregnancy & Parenting

Hi everyone

A Beautiful article by writer Kathryn McDowell recently I read liked to share with you

Why Pocket Diapers Are Better Than Disposables :


As a young parent, you've no doubt heard of pocket diapers. Perhaps a neighbor or a co-worker told you about them. Or it was your babysitter, who asked you to get them soon. Well, so many families in America are today turning to pocket diapers for their little ones. But a majority still holds on to disposable diapers, while being curious about pocket diapers at the same time.

Why are diapers so great? For a start, pocket diapers come with brand new fabrics and super absorbent pads, are easy to put on, simple to take off, easy to wash and quick to dry. And they are better than disposable diapers.

They are Cheaper
Until your child is potty trained, you'd probably spend something close to $2500 to $3000 on diapers - which is quite a lot. Biodegradable disposable diapers are even costlier. But with pocket ones, you won't have to spend anything more than $350 to $400, till your child is potty trained.


10 things you can leave off the baby registry

Sat Feb 28 7:48 AM by Gnarlbanya in Pregnancy & Parenting

I really want one of those baby boxes and would jump at it if not for $69.95 shipping. Will keep thinking about it, I suspect my resolve will crumble eventually.


Bonding

Fri Feb 6 4:35 AM by Zeph in Pregnancy & Parenting

Bonding with my future infant is a concern of mine, because my depression is debilitating. I'm relieved to know that normally functioning women don't feel that head-over-heels mushy baby love.


name trends

Wed Jan 28 8:58 AM by Lemon in Pregnancy & Parenting

Some of my family members who work in the healthcare system have overheard some doozies.

I work in healthcare, so I can relate. I think my favourite was a kid called "Abcde" which we were assured was pronounced "Abasidee". Mirena was a cute choice, named after the contraceptive device. Then there have been some good narrative names including places of birth - e.g. "Shell" (after the baby born in a petrol station carpark) - and places of conception - e.g. "...(a suburb which I'll keep secret - just in case this somehow breaches some poor kid's privacy) bus stop."


It takes 13 million calories to raise a child!

Wed Jan 21 4:32 AM by textualorientation in Pregnancy & Parenting

Recently found out how much energy it takes to raise a child. Woah.

I'm pretty infuriated that in Canada it can cost $1,676/month for daycare, when science actually tells us we evolved to help each other raise children. I wrote a blog about this in case anyone is interested! I would really like to see this change for mothers all over Canada.

https://textualorientation.wordpress.co ... ledaycare/


some quotes recently I read

Sat Jan 10 4:50 PM by Nancy Erick in Pregnancy & Parenting

i search about these quotes in google


How did you decide how many kids to have?

Fri Feb 27 2:42 AM by MFS in Pregnancy & Parenting

First 2 were on purpose, 3rd kinda not so much, 4th was totally an oops (when you think things are broken, they have this habit of fixing themselves). Made sure we were done after that. Aside from that, we knew we'd have at least 2, likely 3, but the timing was not at all what we thought we were "planning". Such is life.


Because judging other parents is absurd.

Tue Feb 3 7:05 AM by Zeph in Pregnancy & Parenting

It's alright to discuss these topics, but there needs to be boundaries. I would use the following, personally:

1. Don't insert yourself into a stranger's situation or bring up the topic yourself to a stranger.
2. It's probably not your business if you're not a parent yourself.
3. Ask the person why they are making these choices, don't assume.
4. Try to end on a positive note.

I don't feel right bringing up to my sister that I don't agree that she spanks my nephew, but after being a teacher, I am pretty forgiving of parents' choices. It's the hardest role there is. Even though I want to raise my children on nutritious meals, cloth diapers, and museum passes, I know I'm going to slip up and give them fries, Huggies, and Disney DVD's.

I also feel that home birth is a fine option for low-risk births, where the mother is well coached and the midwife is reputable. If you live near a hospital and your midwife is highly qualified, why not? They have equipment. I won't be choosing this option, but with any birth plan there needs to be a series of precautions taken.


34 Weeks

Fri Jan 23 11:57 PM by Sonic# in Pregnancy & Parenting

Probably not. As we pointed out in the other topic, 34 weeks isn't even on the chart because it's so rare:
http://spacefem.com/pregnant/charts/duedate1.php

You'd be better off worrying over a car accident.


Work

Thu Jan 15 9:17 PM by bigdaddy in Pregnancy & Parenting

I will do cheers but in people's experiences and options I should be ok


Working as due date approaches

Mon Jan 5 6:18 AM by Bork in Pregnancy & Parenting

However long you end up staying at work, once you're in labor, PLEASE GO HOME. Or to the hospital. Because staying at work while you're in labor is hella awkward for everyone involved.