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Daily odds of pregnancy miscarriage

This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.

The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of May 26th, 2013.

Change LMP:
Month Day Year
Date Progress Overall odds of miscarriage
Sunday June 16th, 2013 3W, 0D 33%
Monday June 17th, 2013 3W, 1D 32.9%
Tuesday June 18th, 2013 3W, 2D 32.6%
Wednesday June 19th, 2013 3W, 3D 32%
Thursday June 20th, 2013 3W, 4D 31.3%
Friday June 21st, 2013 3W, 5D 30.3%
Saturday June 22nd, 2013 3W, 6D 29.2%
Sunday June 23rd, 2013 4W, 0D 28%
Monday June 24th, 2013 4W, 1D 26.6%
Tuesday June 25th, 2013 4W, 2D 25.2%
Wednesday June 26th, 2013 4W, 3D 23.6%
Thursday June 27th, 2013 4W, 4D 22.1%
Friday June 28th, 2013 4W, 5D 20.5%
Saturday June 29th, 2013 4W, 6D 18.9%
Sunday June 30th, 2013 5W, 0D 17.3%
Monday July 1st, 2013 5W, 1D 15.8%
Tuesday July 2nd, 2013 5W, 2D 14.4%
Wednesday July 3rd, 2013 5W, 3D 13%
Thursday July 4th, 2013 5W, 4D 11.7%
Friday July 5th, 2013 5W, 5D 10.5%
Saturday July 6th, 2013 5W, 6D 9.4%
Sunday July 7th, 2013 6W, 0D 8.4%
Monday July 8th, 2013 6W, 1D 7.5%
Tuesday July 9th, 2013 6W, 2D 6.6%
Wednesday July 10th, 2013 6W, 3D 5.9%
Thursday July 11th, 2013 6W, 4D 5.3%
Friday July 12th, 2013 6W, 5D 4.7%
Saturday July 13th, 2013 6W, 6D 4.3%
Sunday July 14th, 2013 7W, 0D 3.9%
Monday July 15th, 2013 7W, 1D 3.5%
Tuesday July 16th, 2013 7W, 2D 3.2%
Wednesday July 17th, 2013 7W, 3D 3%
Thursday July 18th, 2013 7W, 4D 2.8%
Friday July 19th, 2013 7W, 5D 2.6%
Saturday July 20th, 2013 7W, 6D 2.5%
Sunday July 21st, 2013 8W, 0D 2.4%
Monday July 22nd, 2013 8W, 1D 2.3%
Tuesday July 23rd, 2013 8W, 2D 2.2%
Wednesday July 24th, 2013 8W, 3D 2.2%
Thursday July 25th, 2013 8W, 4D 2.1%
Friday July 26th, 2013 8W, 5D 2.1%
Saturday July 27th, 2013 8W, 6D 2.1%
Sunday July 28th, 2013 9W, 0D 2.1%
Monday July 29th, 2013 9W, 1D 2%
Tuesday July 30th, 2013 9W, 2D 2%
Wednesday July 31st, 2013 9W, 3D 2%
Thursday August 1st, 2013 9W, 4D 2%
Friday August 2nd, 2013 9W, 5D 2%
Saturday August 3rd, 2013 9W, 6D 2%
Sunday August 4th, 2013 10W, 0D 2%
Monday August 5th, 2013 10W, 1D 2%
Tuesday August 6th, 2013 10W, 2D 2%
Wednesday August 7th, 2013 10W, 3D 2%
Thursday August 8th, 2013 10W, 4D 2%
Friday August 9th, 2013 10W, 5D 2%
Saturday August 10th, 2013 10W, 6D 2%
Sunday August 11th, 2013 11W, 0D 2%
Monday August 12th, 2013 11W, 1D 2%
Tuesday August 13th, 2013 11W, 2D 2%
Wednesday August 14th, 2013 11W, 3D 2%
Thursday August 15th, 2013 11W, 4D 2%
Friday August 16th, 2013 11W, 5D 2%
Saturday August 17th, 2013 11W, 6D 2%
Sunday August 18th, 2013 12W, 0D 2%
Monday August 19th, 2013 12W, 1D 2%
Tuesday August 20th, 2013 12W, 2D 2%
Wednesday August 21st, 2013 12W, 3D 2%
Thursday August 22nd, 2013 12W, 4D 2%
Friday August 23rd, 2013 12W, 5D 2%
Saturday August 24th, 2013 12W, 6D 2%

Future probability of miscarriage at a given day

Notes and disclaimers

All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).

I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.

The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.

There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.

Charts are generated by flot.

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