This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.
The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of May 26th, 2013.
|Date||Progress||Overall probability of miscarriage|
|Sunday June 16th, 2013||3W, 0D||33%|
|Monday June 17th, 2013||3W, 1D||32.9%|
|Tuesday June 18th, 2013||3W, 2D||32.6%|
|Wednesday June 19th, 2013||3W, 3D||32%|
|Thursday June 20th, 2013||3W, 4D||31.3%|
|Friday June 21st, 2013||3W, 5D||30.3%|
|Saturday June 22nd, 2013||3W, 6D||29.2%|
|Sunday June 23rd, 2013||4W, 0D||28%|
|Monday June 24th, 2013||4W, 1D||26.6%|
|Tuesday June 25th, 2013||4W, 2D||25.2%|
|Wednesday June 26th, 2013||4W, 3D||23.6%|
|Thursday June 27th, 2013||4W, 4D||22.1%|
|Friday June 28th, 2013||4W, 5D||20.5%|
|Saturday June 29th, 2013||4W, 6D||18.9%|
|Sunday June 30th, 2013||5W, 0D||17.3%|
|Monday July 1st, 2013||5W, 1D||15.8%|
|Tuesday July 2nd, 2013||5W, 2D||14.4%|
|Wednesday July 3rd, 2013||5W, 3D||13%|
|Thursday July 4th, 2013||5W, 4D||11.7%|
|Friday July 5th, 2013||5W, 5D||10.5%|
|Saturday July 6th, 2013||5W, 6D||9.4%|
|Sunday July 7th, 2013||6W, 0D||8.4%|
|Monday July 8th, 2013||6W, 1D||7.5%|
|Tuesday July 9th, 2013||6W, 2D||6.6%|
|Wednesday July 10th, 2013||6W, 3D||5.9%|
|Thursday July 11th, 2013||6W, 4D||5.3%|
|Friday July 12th, 2013||6W, 5D||4.7%|
|Saturday July 13th, 2013||6W, 6D||4.3%|
|Sunday July 14th, 2013||7W, 0D||3.9%|
|Monday July 15th, 2013||7W, 1D||3.5%|
|Tuesday July 16th, 2013||7W, 2D||3.2%|
|Wednesday July 17th, 2013||7W, 3D||3%|
|Thursday July 18th, 2013||7W, 4D||2.8%|
|Friday July 19th, 2013||7W, 5D||2.6%|
|Saturday July 20th, 2013||7W, 6D||2.5%|
|Sunday July 21st, 2013||8W, 0D||2.4%|
|Monday July 22nd, 2013||8W, 1D||2.3%|
|Tuesday July 23rd, 2013||8W, 2D||2.2%|
|Wednesday July 24th, 2013||8W, 3D||2.2%|
|Thursday July 25th, 2013||8W, 4D||2.1%|
|Friday July 26th, 2013||8W, 5D||2.1%|
|Saturday July 27th, 2013||8W, 6D||2.1%|
|Sunday July 28th, 2013||9W, 0D||2.1%|
|Monday July 29th, 2013||9W, 1D||2%|
|Tuesday July 30th, 2013||9W, 2D||2%|
|Wednesday July 31st, 2013||9W, 3D||2%|
|Thursday August 1st, 2013||9W, 4D||2%|
|Friday August 2nd, 2013||9W, 5D||2%|
|Saturday August 3rd, 2013||9W, 6D||2%|
|Sunday August 4th, 2013||10W, 0D||2%|
|Monday August 5th, 2013||10W, 1D||2%|
|Tuesday August 6th, 2013||10W, 2D||2%|
|Wednesday August 7th, 2013||10W, 3D||2%|
|Thursday August 8th, 2013||10W, 4D||2%|
|Friday August 9th, 2013||10W, 5D||2%|
|Saturday August 10th, 2013||10W, 6D||2%|
|Sunday August 11th, 2013||11W, 0D||2%|
|Monday August 12th, 2013||11W, 1D||2%|
|Tuesday August 13th, 2013||11W, 2D||2%|
|Wednesday August 14th, 2013||11W, 3D||2%|
|Thursday August 15th, 2013||11W, 4D||2%|
|Friday August 16th, 2013||11W, 5D||2%|
|Saturday August 17th, 2013||11W, 6D||2%|
|Sunday August 18th, 2013||12W, 0D||2%|
|Monday August 19th, 2013||12W, 1D||2%|
|Tuesday August 20th, 2013||12W, 2D||2%|
|Wednesday August 21st, 2013||12W, 3D||2%|
|Thursday August 22nd, 2013||12W, 4D||2%|
|Friday August 23rd, 2013||12W, 5D||2%|
|Saturday August 24th, 2013||12W, 6D||2%|
All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (email@example.com).I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.
The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.
There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.
Charts are generated by flot.
It took me a really long time to even want to post a reply in this thread, mostly because I've run into this general, Sanctimommious attitude about childbirth. (Not necessarily here, but definitely in meatspace.)
I've had two medically necessary c-sections. The first one was after
And, really, by the time I got pregnant with my oldest son, my goal for labor was just to have a baby.
I have two children. I've been pregnant five times. I have a higher failure rate than success rate with pregnancy.
By the time I got pregnant with my oldest son, my idea of a successful labor/childbirth was one that resulted in a healthy,
And I'm not saying anyone on here has taken this stance, but I have personally come accross people who really seem to believe that worstcasescenario is medical intervention. (And boyhowdy, do they LORD their "natural" childbirth over others.)
Well, I can completely agree with AUM. I am just so against, personally, the holy rollers on both sides. There is almost always a grey in the middle which we do not recognize or choose to ignore. And yes even the vaccers seem like holy rollers. Very few people question anything the government of physicians tell them anymore. It's so scary to think most people out there act like they are part of a herd. Willingly. Scary. But that might be left for another topic of discussion...
We didn't have knives at home until I was ... 9 or 10? But they gave us butter knives with school lunch right from the get go, so ... yeah. I never complained about this at home though because I was lazy and liked to be pampered and have my mom cut up my food and spread the butter for me
And I did have trouble when they finally gave me real (actually sharp) knives. Steak knives were fine because they were serrated, but I had trouble with paring knives telling which side was the sharp side and often used them upside down trying to saw through something with the dull edge. I finally learned to look closely and learn the difference when my dad got frustrated with how slow it was going for me and slammed his hand down on the knife to push it through (a carrot? celery? can't remember now) and almost cut off his thumb :/
Hm. I dunno, I don't really feel quite as terrified about things as I did for the first several years. Which isn't to say there aren't moments...
My mother-in-law always tells me the story about her twins. She basically
I imagine you'll want to get a good twin stroller, but everything else would just be the same as for a single baby - just more supplies as you'll go through through diapers etc much faster.
Thank you everyone for invaluable opinions. I'm hoping I will not have to wait till my 40's, but I am 34 now, and the earliest I might have kids is probably 37. It will probably also take longer since I am in a same sex marraige, and ttc and all... Another consideration is that my wife is 13 years younger than I and she will be donating her young and healthy egg (hopefully) to me. So, my genetics will not be the only consideration. All factors I think about, and more... Thanks again everyone!
Oh, this is an interesting discussion and one that I'm finding interesting as I am in the early stages of my second pregnancy.
I really appreciate both perspectives represented here - of modern medicine and of herbalism - and I actually like a middle way of using both, insofar as they are meant to be used (I think both can be and often are misused and misunderstood). I think a well-studied use of herbal remedies can be very complimentary to good medical care. A friend of mine, who is a Western herbalist and clinical researcher, is very evidence-based and really changed my perspective on the place for herbs. It's easy for people to go overboard and claim too many benefits to herbal remedies, to push baseless hokum like homeopathy and chakra balancing, etc., and it's equally easy to denounce it all as unproven, because most clinical studies are not looking at herbs in a double-blind, well-constructed study, particularly in pregnancy, because of the risks if it is somehow dangerous (and many herbs can be, just because they can be quite potent, particularly in a tincture or other concentrated form).
I honestly love holding other people's babies while they're eating. Did this for a new mum friend who needed to go to the loo and she turned back a few times because the baby was crying, but as soon as she was out of sight, baby was just fine.
When I was about 7 or 8 I was riding my bike and rode off the curb, flew off the seat, landed on the tube, and somehow managed to get a cut in my vaginal area. Apparently, it bled like a mofo. It turned out to be only a small cut, but I can only imagine what my mom felt like when her 8yo showed up at her door crying hysterically and bleeding profusely from her crotch.
I brought music and then I was like FUCK NO TURN OFF ALL THE NOISE.
Same here! And my husband was super amused by this because we had bought wireless bluetooth speakers and spent weeks putting together the "perfect" birthing playlist. I wonder how often this happens?
Thinking about this topic a little more, I think it's important that we remember that statistics just indicate trends and don't actually tell much of a story as far as individual circumstances go. By that I mean that while in some countries the c-section rate is statistically higher than in other places, it doesn't mean that an individual's decision to have a c-section in those countries is necessarily a flawed one. Nor does it mean that all doctors in those countries are scalpel-happy and just want to get babies out so they can take off to play golf or go for lunch, as I've seen it put on other pregnancy forums (not here).
If I do a brief statistical analysis of friends/acquaintances etc who have given birth in the last few years, the majority had vaginal births, everything from quick and uncomplicated to lengthy and forceps delivery. I can't think of any who had c-sections as a personal choice rather than for a medical reason. Those who had c-sections either had scheduled ones for good reason (obstruction due to fibroids, placenta previa, breech after unsuccessful ECV) or an emergency one for good reason (pre-eclampsia, fetal distress, placental abruption etc). Australia apparently has a c-section rate of 20-25% which this sample would accord with. But given the reasons for the c-sections, I do wonder when I read that the WHO recommends a c-section rate of 10-15%, who exactly should have been turned away from this limited sample?
We have topics and questions all the time about what to eat when you're pregnant, so I wanted to share this charming story of an experience I had while pregnant with my second daughter.
I was only 10 or 11 weeks along and had been dealing with a "managable" level of morning sickness. This means that I could throw up at any time without warning, but in a cute pregnant way, not a dibilitating one. Most times, as long as there was food on my stomach I'd be okay, so I was careful to keep healthy snacks around - my favorite being cheetos, because you know, cheese is dairy right?
I was following all the good internet advice of not eating raw or uncooked foods, no deli meat, no salad bars, no soft cheeses, only low mercury fish, no food out of trunks of cars, etc.
We went to a wedding at a nice hotel. There was a buffet. I was one of the first people in line at the buffet because I had a two year old who looked like she might be hungry so I played that card, you know how it is. The food was delicious - salad with fresh lettuce, rice, beef strogonoff, mixed veggies. Everything that was supposed to be cold was cold and everything that was supposed to be hot was steaming hot.
Apparently there is a new book out called The Rabbit Who Wants to Go to Sleep and it is ALL THE RAGE.. http://www.amazon.com/Rabbit-Wants-Asle ... 149617951X
If you are still breastfeeding, that may be an issue (not that I recommend that you stop breastfeeding). Topping up before they sleep could be warranted.
For my kid, we keep his room permanently dark and have a white-noise soundmaker outside his door and it works well. Also, although we didn't do a pure "cry it out" method, there were times at the beginning of his "sleep through the night" nights that he would wake up and whimper and we just would wait 2-10 minutes and he'd go back to sleep. That went away and now we don't expect a peep until at least 11 hours have passed. I think we as worried mothers are sort of complicit in creating their "need" for us.. If my boy knows I'll come in within 30 seconds of him making a sound, he'll want me to come in. If he's not sure how long it'll take, he'll go back to bed... Please take the preceding advice as something I might recommend only after the kid is 1 year old. Before then I would never just let him be... I used to rock him to sleep until my arms gave out.
However, one thing I remember clearly from my childhood is being very afraid of death.
I remember when I first realized that we die when we get old. I told my best friend at the time and he got really upset. I never quite had the need for an afterlife, though I remember at about 10 I conceived that when we died maybe we came back again as someone else. This was before I knew that someone else had already thought of that
Presently I'm still open to the idea of some sort of afterlife when we die. One thing I find inspirational when I'm depressed is the thought that there might be some sort of new and interesting afterlife when we die. It can give me energy to keep on with this life. But the idea of eternal punishment for our sins in the afterlife? I'd say to the average man that's the same as "Life's a bitch and then you die and then you go to hell and suffer". The idea that we MIGHT get punished for our sins when we die, for most of us, only serves to make our lives more fearful and miserable and then of course when we die we may well find that no such punishment exists. Like the saying goes "Cheer up, it might never happen". The only usefulness I think of for the idea of afterlife retribution, is something with which to scare a tyrant who is so powerful that apparently nothing in this life can stop him or her abusing people and nature. By telling them that there might be something in the afterlife holding them to account, you might actually scare them into reconsidering their behaviour. But I'd say that for most people, hell or other afterlife punishment, is an unnecessary fear.