This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.
The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of August 10th, 2012.
|Date||Progress||Overall probability of miscarriage|
|Friday August 31st, 2012||3W, 0D||33%|
|Saturday September 1st, 2012||3W, 1D||32.9%|
|Sunday September 2nd, 2012||3W, 2D||32.6%|
|Monday September 3rd, 2012||3W, 3D||32%|
|Tuesday September 4th, 2012||3W, 4D||31.3%|
|Wednesday September 5th, 2012||3W, 5D||30.3%|
|Thursday September 6th, 2012||3W, 6D||29.2%|
|Friday September 7th, 2012||4W, 0D||28%|
|Saturday September 8th, 2012||4W, 1D||26.6%|
|Sunday September 9th, 2012||4W, 2D||25.2%|
|Monday September 10th, 2012||4W, 3D||23.6%|
|Tuesday September 11th, 2012||4W, 4D||22.1%|
|Wednesday September 12th, 2012||4W, 5D||20.5%|
|Thursday September 13th, 2012||4W, 6D||18.9%|
|Friday September 14th, 2012||5W, 0D||17.3%|
|Saturday September 15th, 2012||5W, 1D||15.8%|
|Sunday September 16th, 2012||5W, 2D||14.4%|
|Monday September 17th, 2012||5W, 3D||13%|
|Tuesday September 18th, 2012||5W, 4D||11.7%|
|Wednesday September 19th, 2012||5W, 5D||10.5%|
|Thursday September 20th, 2012||5W, 6D||9.4%|
|Friday September 21st, 2012||6W, 0D||8.4%|
|Saturday September 22nd, 2012||6W, 1D||7.5%|
|Sunday September 23rd, 2012||6W, 2D||6.6%|
|Monday September 24th, 2012||6W, 3D||5.9%|
|Tuesday September 25th, 2012||6W, 4D||5.3%|
|Wednesday September 26th, 2012||6W, 5D||4.7%|
|Thursday September 27th, 2012||6W, 6D||4.3%|
|Friday September 28th, 2012||7W, 0D||3.9%|
|Saturday September 29th, 2012||7W, 1D||3.5%|
|Sunday September 30th, 2012||7W, 2D||3.2%|
|Monday October 1st, 2012||7W, 3D||3%|
|Tuesday October 2nd, 2012||7W, 4D||2.8%|
|Wednesday October 3rd, 2012||7W, 5D||2.6%|
|Thursday October 4th, 2012||7W, 6D||2.5%|
|Friday October 5th, 2012||8W, 0D||2.4%|
|Saturday October 6th, 2012||8W, 1D||2.3%|
|Sunday October 7th, 2012||8W, 2D||2.2%|
|Monday October 8th, 2012||8W, 3D||2.2%|
|Tuesday October 9th, 2012||8W, 4D||2.1%|
|Wednesday October 10th, 2012||8W, 5D||2.1%|
|Thursday October 11th, 2012||8W, 6D||2.1%|
|Friday October 12th, 2012||9W, 0D||2.1%|
|Saturday October 13th, 2012||9W, 1D||2%|
|Sunday October 14th, 2012||9W, 2D||2%|
|Monday October 15th, 2012||9W, 3D||2%|
|Tuesday October 16th, 2012||9W, 4D||2%|
|Wednesday October 17th, 2012||9W, 5D||2%|
|Thursday October 18th, 2012||9W, 6D||2%|
|Friday October 19th, 2012||10W, 0D||2%|
|Saturday October 20th, 2012||10W, 1D||2%|
|Sunday October 21st, 2012||10W, 2D||2%|
|Monday October 22nd, 2012||10W, 3D||2%|
|Tuesday October 23rd, 2012||10W, 4D||2%|
|Wednesday October 24th, 2012||10W, 5D||2%|
|Thursday October 25th, 2012||10W, 6D||2%|
|Friday October 26th, 2012||11W, 0D||2%|
|Saturday October 27th, 2012||11W, 1D||2%|
|Sunday October 28th, 2012||11W, 2D||2%|
|Monday October 29th, 2012||11W, 3D||2%|
|Tuesday October 30th, 2012||11W, 4D||2%|
|Wednesday October 31st, 2012||11W, 5D||2%|
|Thursday November 1st, 2012||11W, 6D||2%|
|Friday November 2nd, 2012||12W, 0D||2%|
|Saturday November 3rd, 2012||12W, 1D||2%|
|Sunday November 4th, 2012||12W, 2D||2%|
|Monday November 5th, 2012||12W, 3D||2%|
|Tuesday November 6th, 2012||12W, 4D||2%|
|Wednesday November 7th, 2012||12W, 5D||2%|
|Thursday November 8th, 2012||12W, 6D||2%|
All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (firstname.lastname@example.org).I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.
The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.
There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.
Charts are generated by flot.
My just-turned-2 yr old started answering yes/no questions with a most casual1-shoulder shrug and a "Sure..."
- Do you want more milk?
- (half shrug) Sure...
No good-sport-ness needed at all! This is exactly the sort of advice I was hoping for.
I linked to the RIE educator blogs because some of the specific things they've discussed have really hit home for me--the difference between comforting a crying baby and trying to shut them up, for example, or the need to sit on one's hands (I have a terrible problem with doing-for around other adults, never mind kids!), or the videos of actual adults and kids interacting. I definitely find that more (potentially) useful than the more general philosophical/marketing stuff.
Eek and here I was about to say this felt like a tame version of Mother Lover.
Sorry to CPR a dying thread, but I came across this, and thought I'd share.
http://www.henriettes-herb.com/blog/pos ... ssion.html
Pre and post-partum depression have similar reasons, physically speaking. Check nutrition first.
Already two months old???? When did that happen?? His little outfit is so precious!
Super glad to hear that you're feeling better.
In my experience "real" contractions are pretty much the whole uterus (top, bottom and lower back). I remember reading somewhere that the ones that get you dilated from 0-7/8 cm are largely the muscles pulling up, trying to stretch the cervix out. As a result many people largely do feel them most strongly at the top of their belly. Whether you feel them strongly in your back or not depends on how the baby is positioned. If you've heard the term "back labor" that usually happens if the back of the baby's head is pressed up against your spine (less common than when the baby's face is on the spine). The contractions that take you from 7 or 8 cm to 10 - i.e. the ones in the part of labor known as "transition" - do tend to be lower down (and also more painful). That said, I think there is A LOT of variation in experience...
I am actually a big fan of the wonder weeks. I found it better than most popular level books looking at infant development. My son was right on the clock for the fussy/happy times, and it was interesting to look for the new skills that I might not have noticed if I hadn't been watching for them.
On the other hand, I stumbled upon this accidentally, so didn't have any hype surrounding it. I also read the author biographies before picking up the book, so took everything with a grain of salt knowing that 1) the authors specialized in chimpanzees, not humans, and developed their theories based on chimps; 2) the bulk of the research is greater than 20 years old and so much of the book is out-dated; and 3) given #'s 1&2, incidental parenting advice had to be filtered.
That said, I still found the book useful and regularly recommend it to people.
A parent in my Kindergarten class would bring us homemade purple play dough that smelled like grape!
Thanks! I was going to put my labor story in Random but never got around to it. I can try to do it soon - it's written out already so just a matter of editing.
Yes you must! I'm happy to hear from you, hope everything went and is going well
A few of the more enterprising/crafty moms in my old parent group got together with a group of friends and bought beads in bulk from alibaba or some other site like that. Some sold the necklaces locally, some made really affordable gifts for friends; I almost jumped in, because a couple of years ago these were still hovering at the $30 mark, but at ~$15, they're much more affordable now, methinks.
They babies I witnessed munching on these were really going to town on them, too.
I'm definitely in the "happy healthy child is my only goal" camp. I know some people who are superstars in their chosen fields. From what I can tell, being a superstar is completely exhausting and often really psychologically taxing. So if my kid isn't naturally inclined that way, I certainly don't intend to push them.
If I'm hoping for anything, I hope they'll end up being a quirky artsy/techy type like just about everyone else in the family. But my brother's a corporate lawyer and I love him anyway, so even if our kid turns out to be a white sheep, they'll just bond with Uncle A and it'll all be fine.
We used/still use our diaper bag quite a lot.
For our little guy's first year of life we were urban dwellers and I would often go out for half a day at a time. I would take a diaper for every hour I planned to be out of the house plus one, which was too much for the clutch. I needed a change pad, since he was often changed in nasty places, wipes, hand sanitizer (for changes away from running water), Kleenex, and disposal bags. He needed spare clothes, I needed a spare shirt (discovered after an emergency, useful many times afterwards), and it was useful to have a plastic bag for clothes which were victims of a diaper explosion. For longer days out I would bring two spares for him (and did have days where I used both). I would also have a nursing cover and a blanket in there. We also had a stroller cover for napping which was quite handy when we were taking the stroller as opposed to a carrier. And then there was my stuff, like my wallet, phone, lip balm, keys, granola bar, etc... I did pack the camera, and was often glad for it. Nearly all of our first year pics were from our little excursions.
Thanks for the tips. It's not so much getting to sleep that's the problem, it's staying that way that is causing the issue - too many things waking me up. I seem to be in a bit of a pattern now of alternating good and bad nights, which I guess I can live with. Meanwhile, Netflix is getting a damn good workout in the early hours.
Thanks, I love the part about not being able to lower the tray table all the way I never would have thought of that.
Normally, my doctor said not to do aspirin or ibuprofen for pain relief, but only tylenol (acetemenophen) and even that only if -absolutely- needed after trying other remedies (like heat pack, cold pack, resting with lights closed eyes shut, etc). But the directions for flying specifically say to take one baby aspirin (81mg) a day for three days before the flight as well as the day of the flight to prevent blood clots. My guess is the risk of such a small dose is outweighed by the benefit of not getting blood clots for this particular situation.