Daily odds of pregnancy miscarriage

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This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.

The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of August 10th, 2012.

Change LMP:
Month Day Year
Date Progress Overall probability of miscarriage
Friday August 31st, 2012 3W, 0D 33%
Saturday September 1st, 2012 3W, 1D 32.9%
Sunday September 2nd, 2012 3W, 2D 32.6%
Monday September 3rd, 2012 3W, 3D 32%
Tuesday September 4th, 2012 3W, 4D 31.3%
Wednesday September 5th, 2012 3W, 5D 30.3%
Thursday September 6th, 2012 3W, 6D 29.2%
Friday September 7th, 2012 4W, 0D 28%
Saturday September 8th, 2012 4W, 1D 26.6%
Sunday September 9th, 2012 4W, 2D 25.2%
Monday September 10th, 2012 4W, 3D 23.6%
Tuesday September 11th, 2012 4W, 4D 22.1%
Wednesday September 12th, 2012 4W, 5D 20.5%
Thursday September 13th, 2012 4W, 6D 18.9%
Friday September 14th, 2012 5W, 0D 17.3%
Saturday September 15th, 2012 5W, 1D 15.8%
Sunday September 16th, 2012 5W, 2D 14.4%
Monday September 17th, 2012 5W, 3D 13%
Tuesday September 18th, 2012 5W, 4D 11.7%
Wednesday September 19th, 2012 5W, 5D 10.5%
Thursday September 20th, 2012 5W, 6D 9.4%
Friday September 21st, 2012 6W, 0D 8.4%
Saturday September 22nd, 2012 6W, 1D 7.5%
Sunday September 23rd, 2012 6W, 2D 6.6%
Monday September 24th, 2012 6W, 3D 5.9%
Tuesday September 25th, 2012 6W, 4D 5.3%
Wednesday September 26th, 2012 6W, 5D 4.7%
Thursday September 27th, 2012 6W, 6D 4.3%
Friday September 28th, 2012 7W, 0D 3.9%
Saturday September 29th, 2012 7W, 1D 3.5%
Sunday September 30th, 2012 7W, 2D 3.2%
Monday October 1st, 2012 7W, 3D 3%
Tuesday October 2nd, 2012 7W, 4D 2.8%
Wednesday October 3rd, 2012 7W, 5D 2.6%
Thursday October 4th, 2012 7W, 6D 2.5%
Friday October 5th, 2012 8W, 0D 2.4%
Saturday October 6th, 2012 8W, 1D 2.3%
Sunday October 7th, 2012 8W, 2D 2.2%
Monday October 8th, 2012 8W, 3D 2.2%
Tuesday October 9th, 2012 8W, 4D 2.1%
Wednesday October 10th, 2012 8W, 5D 2.1%
Thursday October 11th, 2012 8W, 6D 2.1%
Friday October 12th, 2012 9W, 0D 2.1%
Saturday October 13th, 2012 9W, 1D 2%
Sunday October 14th, 2012 9W, 2D 2%
Monday October 15th, 2012 9W, 3D 2%
Tuesday October 16th, 2012 9W, 4D 2%
Wednesday October 17th, 2012 9W, 5D 2%
Thursday October 18th, 2012 9W, 6D 2%
Friday October 19th, 2012 10W, 0D 2%
Saturday October 20th, 2012 10W, 1D 2%
Sunday October 21st, 2012 10W, 2D 2%
Monday October 22nd, 2012 10W, 3D 2%
Tuesday October 23rd, 2012 10W, 4D 2%
Wednesday October 24th, 2012 10W, 5D 2%
Thursday October 25th, 2012 10W, 6D 2%
Friday October 26th, 2012 11W, 0D 2%
Saturday October 27th, 2012 11W, 1D 2%
Sunday October 28th, 2012 11W, 2D 2%
Monday October 29th, 2012 11W, 3D 2%
Tuesday October 30th, 2012 11W, 4D 2%
Wednesday October 31st, 2012 11W, 5D 2%
Thursday November 1st, 2012 11W, 6D 2%
Friday November 2nd, 2012 12W, 0D 2%
Saturday November 3rd, 2012 12W, 1D 2%
Sunday November 4th, 2012 12W, 2D 2%
Monday November 5th, 2012 12W, 3D 2%
Tuesday November 6th, 2012 12W, 4D 2%
Wednesday November 7th, 2012 12W, 5D 2%
Thursday November 8th, 2012 12W, 6D 2%

Future probability of miscarriage at a given day

Notes and disclaimers

All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).

I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.

The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.

There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.

Charts are generated by flot.

Recent Comments

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bringing children up naturist

Sat Sep 24 1:18 AM by filmmakingally in Pregnancy & Parenting

It's about teaching children to make love so that they do it themselves. Love has no age or genetic requirement. It's healthy for young siblings to make love, and it's unhealthy if they don't. Sexual repression of children fucks them up as adults. Because the parents are secretive about it, children get the idea that it's bad, which starts the process of sexual repression.

Gross. Yuck. Eww. I've run out of ways to express how disgusted I am with what you've said here. Ewwwwwww!!!!!!!

No, siblings should not make love. It is in our genetic interest that we don't do this. Ever. This is a cultural universal.


learning to use a toilet

Sun Sep 11 2:33 PM by Angelica in Pregnancy & Parenting

My statement was meant to indicate that I'm not finished with my thoughts on this topic, rather than to create drama.

I believe parents in this world universally make a big mistake when it comes time to start thinking about their children using the toilet. Kids feel forced to do it, and this breeds resentment and damages their self-esteem. Having the father (the mother is needed in the battle against the patriarchy) stay home with the children and homeschool them while they haven't yet decided to train themselves is the way to avoid humiliation by their more-repressed peers.

I would also like to point out that limiting elimination to the toilet at any age creates situations where the person's health is compromised due to the lack of availability of a bathroom. In these situations, I strongly advise parents to let their children wear diapers no matter their age. Retention can lead to kidney stones, intestinal damage, urinary tract infections and harmful bacteria and toxins in the bloodstream.


How to Announce Baby #4?

Thu Sep 8 5:00 AM by Carol Palmer in Pregnancy & Parenting

FB pic is the best idea. All your friends and relatives can definitely post in comments or expressions . Consider yourself lucky to have many children. They are a blessing from God


How NOT to help parents with a newborn

Fri Jul 22 6:11 PM by missmay in Pregnancy & Parenting

oh, lord, i am so tired of people telling me to "enjoy it!" regarding my newborn. and asking me if she is a "good baby." how could a baby be bad? and how does it make me enjoy her more to be reminded to do so? i imagine that if i was depressed and had a colicky baby these questions would be even more obnoxious.


Kids are full of LIES

Sun May 22 2:29 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

Don't be silly monk, everyone knows a good conglomerate goes better with milk


Don't give your kids antidepressants.

Thu Sep 15 9:13 PM by Nachos in Pregnancy & Parenting

Mental health issues will never start to hurt, therefore no preemptive treatment is needed.

Mental health issues hurt, take it from me. There are many psychosomatic disorders out there which affect your body even though the real problem is in your mind. But to get better, you HAVE to treat both. Pre-emptive treatment also can stop some disorders from becoming too bad. And yes, sometimes drugs can be very very helpful.

I don't think you know what you're talking about and all this "I know because of divine intuition" bullshit is starting to piss me off. if you ask others for sources, be kind enough to provide some yourself.

If this thread continues to be shit-slinging, I will lock it.


Middle grade / Beginning Chapter Books

Fri Sep 9 8:01 PM by melsbells in Pregnancy & Parenting

I think a big driver in getting them to read is to find stories that they like.
Definitely this. I once tutored a kid who had been held back twice in elementary school and was still a couple grade levels behind on reading skills. He was given a book from the Captain Underpants series because it was supposed to be at his reading level but he thought it was utterly stupid. I don't think we ever found books that both matched his reading level and maturity level, but once we started reading books better suited to his interests, it didn't matter that they were more difficult.

One of my cousins kids read the Warriors series and was really into it. She was bulllied in school, but I don't think it was instigated by her reading choices.

I don't know any recent books for this age group but I've heard great things about the Adventure Time comics.


Carriers vs Ring Sling

Mon Sep 5 8:59 PM by melsbells in Pregnancy & Parenting

^That's funny because the bjorn carrier is the one I was given that I didn't like. I think that just re-emphasizes that the same thing isn't going to work the same for everyone.


Denial Trends?

Thu Jul 21 7:24 PM by SameMom in Pregnancy & Parenting

Sorry, if I was not able to mention other details. Actually, I have a (US) medicare insurance. And I am particularly referring to this denial management software which help clients with their claims. Thanks for your reply. :)


minimalist kids birthday parties

Sun May 15 9:19 PM by melsbells in Pregnancy & Parenting

For the first two birthdays, we tried to make some special food and splurge on interesting fruit. If I lived closer to friends, I would want to throw a get-together as an excuse to see my friends, celebrate our survival of another year. I don't think my kid would actually be into that though. They are turning out to be quite introverted and shy.


Sleep Training for Parents and Infants

Wed Sep 14 4:04 AM by monk in Pregnancy & Parenting

This video is by my favorite health info series. There's always links to sources and the host is doctor very respected who writes medical articles for the NYTimes.
Get some sleep mom & dad.

jyPYf9jIuRE


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Mon Sep 5 5:20 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

^Hm that reminds me of a thing I read about pushing reading (and by extension other things) in this country too. I'll see if I can't dredge it up.


Public Service Announcement: Furniture Anchors!

Fri Jul 1 5:17 AM by cwbyrvr in Pregnancy & Parenting

I do find it very interesting to find that IKEA is recalling furniture because people don't secure it to walls... I was given anchors with all of the stuff I've bought from there. Though maybe that's only a somewhat recent thing? It was over a half a year ago that I bought stuff from there, though.

And I didn't use the anchors... I guess I am about to be an aunt and it might be a good idea to get that stuff secured in case I ever end up watching my niece here. Hadn't really worried about it prior because there was literally never going to be a time I'd have kids running around this place. The likelihood of my niece ever being here is pretty damn low too, but I wouldn't say 0%.


Pregnancy Guidebooks for Cool Moms (humor)

Wed May 11 3:39 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

One of my friends is part of this magazine. She didn't write this one but it's pretty hilarious.

http://theoffingmag.com/wits-end/pregna ... cool-moms/

Anyone want to come up with our own "Guidebook" titles?

spoiler:
the one about inducing labor by setting your hair on fire is my favorite