This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.
The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of August 10th, 2012.
|Date||Progress||Overall probability of miscarriage|
|Friday August 31st, 2012||3W, 0D||33%|
|Saturday September 1st, 2012||3W, 1D||32.9%|
|Sunday September 2nd, 2012||3W, 2D||32.6%|
|Monday September 3rd, 2012||3W, 3D||32%|
|Tuesday September 4th, 2012||3W, 4D||31.3%|
|Wednesday September 5th, 2012||3W, 5D||30.3%|
|Thursday September 6th, 2012||3W, 6D||29.2%|
|Friday September 7th, 2012||4W, 0D||28%|
|Saturday September 8th, 2012||4W, 1D||26.6%|
|Sunday September 9th, 2012||4W, 2D||25.2%|
|Monday September 10th, 2012||4W, 3D||23.6%|
|Tuesday September 11th, 2012||4W, 4D||22.1%|
|Wednesday September 12th, 2012||4W, 5D||20.5%|
|Thursday September 13th, 2012||4W, 6D||18.9%|
|Friday September 14th, 2012||5W, 0D||17.3%|
|Saturday September 15th, 2012||5W, 1D||15.8%|
|Sunday September 16th, 2012||5W, 2D||14.4%|
|Monday September 17th, 2012||5W, 3D||13%|
|Tuesday September 18th, 2012||5W, 4D||11.7%|
|Wednesday September 19th, 2012||5W, 5D||10.5%|
|Thursday September 20th, 2012||5W, 6D||9.4%|
|Friday September 21st, 2012||6W, 0D||8.4%|
|Saturday September 22nd, 2012||6W, 1D||7.5%|
|Sunday September 23rd, 2012||6W, 2D||6.6%|
|Monday September 24th, 2012||6W, 3D||5.9%|
|Tuesday September 25th, 2012||6W, 4D||5.3%|
|Wednesday September 26th, 2012||6W, 5D||4.7%|
|Thursday September 27th, 2012||6W, 6D||4.3%|
|Friday September 28th, 2012||7W, 0D||3.9%|
|Saturday September 29th, 2012||7W, 1D||3.5%|
|Sunday September 30th, 2012||7W, 2D||3.2%|
|Monday October 1st, 2012||7W, 3D||3%|
|Tuesday October 2nd, 2012||7W, 4D||2.8%|
|Wednesday October 3rd, 2012||7W, 5D||2.6%|
|Thursday October 4th, 2012||7W, 6D||2.5%|
|Friday October 5th, 2012||8W, 0D||2.4%|
|Saturday October 6th, 2012||8W, 1D||2.3%|
|Sunday October 7th, 2012||8W, 2D||2.2%|
|Monday October 8th, 2012||8W, 3D||2.2%|
|Tuesday October 9th, 2012||8W, 4D||2.1%|
|Wednesday October 10th, 2012||8W, 5D||2.1%|
|Thursday October 11th, 2012||8W, 6D||2.1%|
|Friday October 12th, 2012||9W, 0D||2.1%|
|Saturday October 13th, 2012||9W, 1D||2%|
|Sunday October 14th, 2012||9W, 2D||2%|
|Monday October 15th, 2012||9W, 3D||2%|
|Tuesday October 16th, 2012||9W, 4D||2%|
|Wednesday October 17th, 2012||9W, 5D||2%|
|Thursday October 18th, 2012||9W, 6D||2%|
|Friday October 19th, 2012||10W, 0D||2%|
|Saturday October 20th, 2012||10W, 1D||2%|
|Sunday October 21st, 2012||10W, 2D||2%|
|Monday October 22nd, 2012||10W, 3D||2%|
|Tuesday October 23rd, 2012||10W, 4D||2%|
|Wednesday October 24th, 2012||10W, 5D||2%|
|Thursday October 25th, 2012||10W, 6D||2%|
|Friday October 26th, 2012||11W, 0D||2%|
|Saturday October 27th, 2012||11W, 1D||2%|
|Sunday October 28th, 2012||11W, 2D||2%|
|Monday October 29th, 2012||11W, 3D||2%|
|Tuesday October 30th, 2012||11W, 4D||2%|
|Wednesday October 31st, 2012||11W, 5D||2%|
|Thursday November 1st, 2012||11W, 6D||2%|
|Friday November 2nd, 2012||12W, 0D||2%|
|Saturday November 3rd, 2012||12W, 1D||2%|
|Sunday November 4th, 2012||12W, 2D||2%|
|Monday November 5th, 2012||12W, 3D||2%|
|Tuesday November 6th, 2012||12W, 4D||2%|
|Wednesday November 7th, 2012||12W, 5D||2%|
|Thursday November 8th, 2012||12W, 6D||2%|
All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (email@example.com).I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.
The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.
There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.
Charts are generated by flot.
There was a point in time when my kid was still an infant that I feared that I would never be able to ride a bike, use my prefered method of menstruation sanitation, have intercourse, or sit down ever again. I can do all those things! Breastfeeding didn't last forever. I'm no longer concerned about milk leaking everywhere, drenching my shirts. I had convinced myself that sleep deprivation would last indefinitely, but the kid somehow started sleeping through the night, seemingly based on none of the contradictory expert advice we attempted to follow. We can have fun together. I can do chores and ask the toddler to help and the kid actually helps. Of course we're still working on things and there are places I want the kid to be developmentally and they're just not there yet, but now it no longer feels like things will never get there.
One of my friends is part of this magazine. She didn't write this one but it's pretty hilarious.
http://theoffingmag.com/wits-end/pregna ... cool-moms/
Anyone want to come up with our own "Guidebook" titles?
I don't think it's a cause for immediate concern, but my experience would lead me to talk to a doctor about it. I didn't have a stutter when I was 2. I had language delay. I didn't learn language when kids typically do. Needless to say, I was a very frustrated little kid. When my parents and my pediatrician caught on to it, I had to spend a few years seeing a speech pathologist.
I've read that stuttering is at least partly psychological, but I really can't say more than that. If nothing else, I'd just want to know that his frustration is a necessary part of development like teething and not something that can be avoided.
Actually I think it would be better if the penalty was rehab and being sent to a therapist. It's pretty dumb to criminalize it especially because there is an almost certainty custody will be taken away. Why not try and fix the problem with addiction so there is less of a strain on social services. There should be increased awareness but what idiot doesn't know drugs are bad for you and worse if your pregnant. If you are addicted to drugs you obviously are thinking about getting high and that's about it.
I just had a look at your article.
As you say, many comments have been deleted, but that's probably for the best otherwise I'd get mad.
I'm about to have my first child and have had some similarly surprising responses from people when I explain I'm going to be a SAHM; everything from admiration to unsolicited suggestions that a nanny is better than daycare. When I explain that the reason is that I acut ally want to work but my earnings from my two part time jobs would barely cover childcare, it always gets awkward. And then they suggest the whole home daycare/nanny thing again. Even if I could afford it, I'd rather choose the daycare because they have facilities and resources that I don't (I live in a basement apartment, with pretty minimalist furnishings).
I get it. People have strong beliefs about what is 'best', but it's not a one-size-fits-all scenario. And holy crap! If a woman wants and is able to work after having kids, why on earth shouldn't she?
Don't be silly monk, everyone knows a good conglomerate goes better with milk
I think it depends on the child. Do you ask a newborn if it needs it's diaper changed? Obviously no. Do you help a 13 year old get dressed? Obviously no. Somewhere in there the child matures to the point where they should learn that they own their bodies even if they don't have all the privileges an adult does. This age is going to vary wildly between different children (by widly, I would say 3 year range). I would guess that some kids might be ready for this lesson as early as 3 while others not until they're about to go school. Actually that's a pretty good benchmark, because if you're going to put them in a group with other kids they don't know they should know the rules about touching or being touched.
As far as kissing Grandma, maybe they shouldn't have to do it, but making them do this social communcation helps get them ready for all the other social communication that will be forced on them later. Plus, grandma needs that love to help HER be healthy.
There's a Bulgarian tradition about the umbilical cord my friend told me about. When the dried little stump falls off your baby, you're supposed to throw it in a place that reflects your child's future, or at least the future you want for them. My friend threw his first son's on to the pitch at a Yankees' game and for his second son he threw it at the stage during a concert!
When my son's cord fell off a few weeks ago, I put it on the counter next to his changing pad then promptly forgot about it. I've no idea where it is now.
It's really obvious that the dog is stressed out by the toddler and I'm worried about the times when the kid is showing too much interest in the dog and we're not paying enough attention.
Yeah-stressed out dogs can make for stressful times with toddlers. Toddlers just want to pet and hug, and don't want to listen to pleas to leave the dog alone. We wound up getting an automatic treat dispenser and giving the dog relaxation exercises behind a barrier. So now when the toddler is running the length of the house screaming, the dog can be behind the barrier staring lovingly at her treat dispenser, instead of trying to herd the kid. Of course, it isn't really feasible to keep the dog behind the barriers at all times, but at least it gives us some breaks.
Our behavioralist also recommended Prozac, which took a long time to get the dose right, but has helped the dog be less reactionary and neurotic.
Hi! It's a great idea to throw a party for your Mom. So yeah, invite her good friends and those who she hasn't seen for quite some time already. Prepare some healthy food or you can get a caterer for this tell them to prepare your mom's favorite dishes. Set up a good sound system where they can opt to dance or sing their old fav songs. Request her friends to prepare a great birthday greetings and i'm sure she won't forget this event.
For the first two birthdays, we tried to make some special food and splurge on interesting fruit. If I lived closer to friends, I would want to throw a get-together as an excuse to see my friends, celebrate our survival of another year. I don't think my kid would actually be into that though. They are turning out to be quite introverted and shy.
I met a kid about that age who had a geo-caching birthday party and another one who had a roller-skating party. Both sounded awesome. The first one sounded like a whole lot of work to put together.
my neighbor's dog is named Gunner? Makes more sense for a bird dog....
Pretty sure this was a spam post but the post itself is kind of interesting. Maybe it could go to Sci & Tech, though it has relevance here as well. I added a link to the
oh re: diaper rash, we found our kiddo was super sensitive and when things go really bad we got something prescribed from the doc that worked *wonders*. IDEK why that stuff isn't marketed, the pharmacist mixed it all up. The doc called it "poop goop" but I dunno what was in it.