Daily odds of pregnancy miscarriage

Your daily page | Spacefem's Weekly Pregnancy Blog: Week 1

This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.

The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of August 10th, 2012.

Change LMP:
Month Day Year
Date Progress Overall probability of miscarriage
Friday August 31st, 2012 3W, 0D 33%
Saturday September 1st, 2012 3W, 1D 32.9%
Sunday September 2nd, 2012 3W, 2D 32.6%
Monday September 3rd, 2012 3W, 3D 32%
Tuesday September 4th, 2012 3W, 4D 31.3%
Wednesday September 5th, 2012 3W, 5D 30.3%
Thursday September 6th, 2012 3W, 6D 29.2%
Friday September 7th, 2012 4W, 0D 28%
Saturday September 8th, 2012 4W, 1D 26.6%
Sunday September 9th, 2012 4W, 2D 25.2%
Monday September 10th, 2012 4W, 3D 23.6%
Tuesday September 11th, 2012 4W, 4D 22.1%
Wednesday September 12th, 2012 4W, 5D 20.5%
Thursday September 13th, 2012 4W, 6D 18.9%
Friday September 14th, 2012 5W, 0D 17.3%
Saturday September 15th, 2012 5W, 1D 15.8%
Sunday September 16th, 2012 5W, 2D 14.4%
Monday September 17th, 2012 5W, 3D 13%
Tuesday September 18th, 2012 5W, 4D 11.7%
Wednesday September 19th, 2012 5W, 5D 10.5%
Thursday September 20th, 2012 5W, 6D 9.4%
Friday September 21st, 2012 6W, 0D 8.4%
Saturday September 22nd, 2012 6W, 1D 7.5%
Sunday September 23rd, 2012 6W, 2D 6.6%
Monday September 24th, 2012 6W, 3D 5.9%
Tuesday September 25th, 2012 6W, 4D 5.3%
Wednesday September 26th, 2012 6W, 5D 4.7%
Thursday September 27th, 2012 6W, 6D 4.3%
Friday September 28th, 2012 7W, 0D 3.9%
Saturday September 29th, 2012 7W, 1D 3.5%
Sunday September 30th, 2012 7W, 2D 3.2%
Monday October 1st, 2012 7W, 3D 3%
Tuesday October 2nd, 2012 7W, 4D 2.8%
Wednesday October 3rd, 2012 7W, 5D 2.6%
Thursday October 4th, 2012 7W, 6D 2.5%
Friday October 5th, 2012 8W, 0D 2.4%
Saturday October 6th, 2012 8W, 1D 2.3%
Sunday October 7th, 2012 8W, 2D 2.2%
Monday October 8th, 2012 8W, 3D 2.2%
Tuesday October 9th, 2012 8W, 4D 2.1%
Wednesday October 10th, 2012 8W, 5D 2.1%
Thursday October 11th, 2012 8W, 6D 2.1%
Friday October 12th, 2012 9W, 0D 2.1%
Saturday October 13th, 2012 9W, 1D 2%
Sunday October 14th, 2012 9W, 2D 2%
Monday October 15th, 2012 9W, 3D 2%
Tuesday October 16th, 2012 9W, 4D 2%
Wednesday October 17th, 2012 9W, 5D 2%
Thursday October 18th, 2012 9W, 6D 2%
Friday October 19th, 2012 10W, 0D 2%
Saturday October 20th, 2012 10W, 1D 2%
Sunday October 21st, 2012 10W, 2D 2%
Monday October 22nd, 2012 10W, 3D 2%
Tuesday October 23rd, 2012 10W, 4D 2%
Wednesday October 24th, 2012 10W, 5D 2%
Thursday October 25th, 2012 10W, 6D 2%
Friday October 26th, 2012 11W, 0D 2%
Saturday October 27th, 2012 11W, 1D 2%
Sunday October 28th, 2012 11W, 2D 2%
Monday October 29th, 2012 11W, 3D 2%
Tuesday October 30th, 2012 11W, 4D 2%
Wednesday October 31st, 2012 11W, 5D 2%
Thursday November 1st, 2012 11W, 6D 2%
Friday November 2nd, 2012 12W, 0D 2%
Saturday November 3rd, 2012 12W, 1D 2%
Sunday November 4th, 2012 12W, 2D 2%
Monday November 5th, 2012 12W, 3D 2%
Tuesday November 6th, 2012 12W, 4D 2%
Wednesday November 7th, 2012 12W, 5D 2%
Thursday November 8th, 2012 12W, 6D 2%

Future probability of miscarriage at a given day

Notes and disclaimers

All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (

I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.

The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.

There is a page of good studies here: that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.

Charts are generated by flot.

Recent Comments

For more support, encouragement, Q&A, you are invited to join our pregnancy forum. We are dedicated to answering complicated questions as logically as we possibly can.

pick an art museum

Fri Nov 28 12:52 AM by spacefem in Random Weirdos

I was trying to think up poll ideas and "favorite art museum" came to mind... but since just about every city in the world has one, and they're all amazing for their own reasons!

so pick an art museum that you personally have been to, and tell us about it. where is it, why is it wonderful, what's the coolest thing to see?

I'll start with the Nelson-Atkins in Kansas City... known for having giant shuttlecocks on the lawn, but I've been going to this one since I was a little kid:

Van Gogh's Olive Orchard:

Amazing Chinese gallery, complete with architecture ( ... hinese.cfm)

My brief opinion on Ferguson and all that

Thu Nov 27 10:36 PM by rowan in Random Weirdos

Someone who teaches literature, that a friend of mine knows said she told her kids "I don't understand..." would be better to say "I want to understand". I'm not totally sure I want to be able to understand fully, because actually understanding would involve so much pain.

How much rage must you have to hold in that it has to spill out in this way? It must be so, so horribly much. How much pain is there, on a daily basis, for people of color, to have to deal with. It's bad enough as a woman, and the pain and anger I get due to events based on that is bad enough. I cannot even fathom, as much as I try, to feel the kind of pain that is going on.

This kind of systemic failure, as Neko rightly points out, is the problem. And it doesn't change.

Christmas gifts for small children

Wed Nov 26 10:06 PM by Sonic# in Pregnancy & Parenting

When I was little I remember getting a few toys. My parents didn't have that much money (I learned later), but even getting a few things (some clothes, a bucket of duplos) was plenty. The family gifts were the big ones - things like a computer (OMG a Commodore 128) and two very nice sleds.

forum suggestion box

Wed Nov 26 2:12 PM by spacefem in Random Weirdos


I fixed the chat pages, sorcery does have a web-based client that's working. next chat day is tuesday!

I forwarded the whole /chat to the wiki so we have one place to edit.

Are you prepared?

Thu Nov 20 12:25 PM by Aelwyn in Random Weirdos

No, not at all. I have nothing stocked in my place.
However I do live less than 2 minutes from a subway which doubles up as a bomb shelter. Handy.

going public with the new pregnancy & parenting forum

Thu Nov 27 10:54 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

Awesome new people! Welcome! Life does not have to end with babies. In fact they are immensely portable for quite a while. :) I'm a physics professor and have one child.

favorite movie about anyone having a baby

Thu Nov 27 5:57 PM by spacefem in Pregnancy & Parenting

I think the only one of these I've seen is Juno. It was a good movie but I'm not sure it counts as my favorite if it's the only one I've seen?

zomg, this whole forum is worth it if we get more people exposed to SAVED!

how can we spread the word on the touching thing?

Wed Nov 26 8:02 PM by melsbells in Pregnancy & Parenting

I almost never had to deal with this. I was living in a remote area and not interacting much with others. Also, the culture here doesn't seem conducive of interacting with people by touching them.

One of my spouse's young nieces touched my belly and I didn't know how to tell her not to do it. She was immediately corrected by her mother about not touching people without permission.

Then my parents arrived. I mostly just dealt with their touch, but probably not with much class.

Profile updates

Tue Nov 25 4:17 AM by cwbyrvr in Random Weirdos

My occupation used to be "college student/bum" which made it an interesting answer to what I wanted to be when I grew up for sure. Glad to see I wasn't the only one. I changed it, but I already forget what to... probably that I still don't know.

books vs. movies the showdown!

Mon Nov 17 6:49 PM by Sonic# in Random Weirdos

Sometimes I try to see whether the film and the book each stand on their own. If they both do, I don't worry as much about which is better.

When I like the book more: usually it has to do with being so in love with the worldcraft and the descriptions of the book that the film can be entertaining and even moving but just doesn't have the form to develop those things I otherwise loved. See LOTR books (loooove) v. films (love). Sometimes the books are just better, usually because they're in the hands of an author much better than anything the film produced - see Fantastic Voyage by Isaac Asimov, or Dune compared even to David Lynch's version, or the ill-fated attempt to make an Earthsea miniseries.

When I like the film more: when there's something to the film that is brilliant and well-done in its own light. If I come away from the film really liking it, and think the book adds some things but isn't necessary, I like the film more. I'm thinking of Howl's Moving Castle as a good example, since I like the books but love even more its combination with Miyazaki's animation style and storytelling. This also goes for a lot of films that are novelized, like Star Wars. And sorry to the book The Princess Bride, but the film is the first to come to mind.

Food restrictions in pregnancy

Thu Nov 27 10:51 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

Monterey Bay Aquarium has some seafood recommendations, and they'll have information about mercury.

Herbal teas - what spacefem says about "weird" ones is true. There is one that can cause premature contractions, but it sure as hell isn't mint.

I think the rec was to very strongly avoid St Johns Wort, if I recall correctly. I'll go dig through the info I have from my doctor friends.


Thu Nov 27 8:11 AM by Mathmo in Random Weirdos

We've been decluttering / organising gradually for months now (and have got rid of lots of things! Lots have been recycled, or cleaned up and donated). I kind of like organising but only when there is enough space to actually put everything in. We've just moved house, so getting the volume of stuff to move down as low as possible for that was a big motivator. I read "The life-changing magic of tidying" by Marie Kondo a couple of months ago and rather liked it. She has a whole philosophy about tidying that I think makes a lot of sense (a practical approach which involves actually handling each item and seeing how you feel about it and saying goodbye gracefully to things).

I find it hardest to get rid of things I no longer want/need but that aren't in great condition - i.e. where I can see that there's still a lot of potential wear in them, but I don't think anyone would buy them from a charity shop. I really don't want to send things to landfill when they could still be used - but I can't keep all of them (current example: slightly stained but otherwise totally functional drawstring cotton laundry bag that I'm not super-fond of and don't need - bought in 2007 when I did need it for Uni ...).

dealbreaker opinions

Wed Nov 26 5:29 PM by Storage and Disposal in Random Weirdos

really you guys? I unfriend all the time!

why mute someone? that means they're still going to be seeing your posts, commenting on your photos, getting to be "in" your life, and never know anything changed. what good is happening by keeping them around?

My former art teacher is quite conservative, but I still like his comments on my artwork.

I put people I think are otherwise perfectly delightful on mute because they flood facebook with useless crap. I don't want them to get the idea that I hate them, but I don't feel like seeing pages of what they have to say.

I think a lot of people have opinions I don't care for. Rather than offending someone I know and respect in person, I choose to just not see it. Facebook has a knack for showing sides of people I don't want to see, but it's just small sides of them. To me, it's not worth shutting out the person completely. After awhile, I occasionally take them off mute to see if they stopped with their nonsense.

What's up?

Mon Nov 24 9:26 PM by DWH in Random Weirdos

Yooooooooooooooooo I keep forgetting to tell you I'm in LA until next Saturday and we should grab lunch if you're free!

Wait whaaaaaaaaaat, okay, I'm leaving town tomorrow for Thanksgiving but I'm going to move this discussion to Facebook.

And MFS, of course you should be scared. BAHAHAHAHA

stars by your name

Sat Nov 15 7:20 PM by rowan in Random Weirdos

*nibbles purple stars*