Daily odds of pregnancy miscarriage

Your daily page | Spacefem's Weekly Pregnancy Blog: Week 1

This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.

The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of August 10th, 2012.

Change LMP:
Month Day Year
Date Progress Overall probability of miscarriage
Friday August 31st, 2012 3W, 0D 33%
Saturday September 1st, 2012 3W, 1D 32.9%
Sunday September 2nd, 2012 3W, 2D 32.6%
Monday September 3rd, 2012 3W, 3D 32%
Tuesday September 4th, 2012 3W, 4D 31.3%
Wednesday September 5th, 2012 3W, 5D 30.3%
Thursday September 6th, 2012 3W, 6D 29.2%
Friday September 7th, 2012 4W, 0D 28%
Saturday September 8th, 2012 4W, 1D 26.6%
Sunday September 9th, 2012 4W, 2D 25.2%
Monday September 10th, 2012 4W, 3D 23.6%
Tuesday September 11th, 2012 4W, 4D 22.1%
Wednesday September 12th, 2012 4W, 5D 20.5%
Thursday September 13th, 2012 4W, 6D 18.9%
Friday September 14th, 2012 5W, 0D 17.3%
Saturday September 15th, 2012 5W, 1D 15.8%
Sunday September 16th, 2012 5W, 2D 14.4%
Monday September 17th, 2012 5W, 3D 13%
Tuesday September 18th, 2012 5W, 4D 11.7%
Wednesday September 19th, 2012 5W, 5D 10.5%
Thursday September 20th, 2012 5W, 6D 9.4%
Friday September 21st, 2012 6W, 0D 8.4%
Saturday September 22nd, 2012 6W, 1D 7.5%
Sunday September 23rd, 2012 6W, 2D 6.6%
Monday September 24th, 2012 6W, 3D 5.9%
Tuesday September 25th, 2012 6W, 4D 5.3%
Wednesday September 26th, 2012 6W, 5D 4.7%
Thursday September 27th, 2012 6W, 6D 4.3%
Friday September 28th, 2012 7W, 0D 3.9%
Saturday September 29th, 2012 7W, 1D 3.5%
Sunday September 30th, 2012 7W, 2D 3.2%
Monday October 1st, 2012 7W, 3D 3%
Tuesday October 2nd, 2012 7W, 4D 2.8%
Wednesday October 3rd, 2012 7W, 5D 2.6%
Thursday October 4th, 2012 7W, 6D 2.5%
Friday October 5th, 2012 8W, 0D 2.4%
Saturday October 6th, 2012 8W, 1D 2.3%
Sunday October 7th, 2012 8W, 2D 2.2%
Monday October 8th, 2012 8W, 3D 2.2%
Tuesday October 9th, 2012 8W, 4D 2.1%
Wednesday October 10th, 2012 8W, 5D 2.1%
Thursday October 11th, 2012 8W, 6D 2.1%
Friday October 12th, 2012 9W, 0D 2.1%
Saturday October 13th, 2012 9W, 1D 2%
Sunday October 14th, 2012 9W, 2D 2%
Monday October 15th, 2012 9W, 3D 2%
Tuesday October 16th, 2012 9W, 4D 2%
Wednesday October 17th, 2012 9W, 5D 2%
Thursday October 18th, 2012 9W, 6D 2%
Friday October 19th, 2012 10W, 0D 2%
Saturday October 20th, 2012 10W, 1D 2%
Sunday October 21st, 2012 10W, 2D 2%
Monday October 22nd, 2012 10W, 3D 2%
Tuesday October 23rd, 2012 10W, 4D 2%
Wednesday October 24th, 2012 10W, 5D 2%
Thursday October 25th, 2012 10W, 6D 2%
Friday October 26th, 2012 11W, 0D 2%
Saturday October 27th, 2012 11W, 1D 2%
Sunday October 28th, 2012 11W, 2D 2%
Monday October 29th, 2012 11W, 3D 2%
Tuesday October 30th, 2012 11W, 4D 2%
Wednesday October 31st, 2012 11W, 5D 2%
Thursday November 1st, 2012 11W, 6D 2%
Friday November 2nd, 2012 12W, 0D 2%
Saturday November 3rd, 2012 12W, 1D 2%
Sunday November 4th, 2012 12W, 2D 2%
Monday November 5th, 2012 12W, 3D 2%
Tuesday November 6th, 2012 12W, 4D 2%
Wednesday November 7th, 2012 12W, 5D 2%
Thursday November 8th, 2012 12W, 6D 2%

Future probability of miscarriage at a given day

Notes and disclaimers

All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).

I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.

The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.

There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.

Charts are generated by flot.

Recent Comments

For more support, encouragement, Q&A, you are invited to join our pregnancy forum. We are dedicated to answering complicated questions as logically as we possibly can.

non-religious parents raise okay kids after all

Wed Sep 2 3:37 AM by AndrewZealand in Pregnancy & Parenting

However, one thing I remember clearly from my childhood is being very afraid of death.

I remember when I first realized that we die when we get old. I told my best friend at the time and he got really upset. I never quite had the need for an afterlife, though I remember at about 10 I conceived that when we died maybe we came back again as someone else. This was before I knew that someone else had already thought of that :P

Presently I'm still open to the idea of some sort of afterlife when we die. One thing I find inspirational when I'm depressed is the thought that there might be some sort of new and interesting afterlife when we die. It can give me energy to keep on with this life. But the idea of eternal punishment for our sins in the afterlife? I'd say to the average man that's the same as "Life's a bitch and then you die and then you go to hell and suffer". The idea that we MIGHT get punished for our sins when we die, for most of us, only serves to make our lives more fearful and miserable and then of course when we die we may well find that no such punishment exists. Like the saying goes "Cheer up, it might never happen". The only usefulness I think of for the idea of afterlife retribution, is something with which to scare a tyrant who is so powerful that apparently nothing in this life can stop him or her abusing people and nature. By telling them that there might be something in the afterlife holding them to account, you might actually scare them into reconsidering their behaviour. But I'd say that for most people, hell or other afterlife punishment, is an unnecessary fear.


Happy Birthday, Baby Bird!

Thu Aug 27 12:57 PM by ablotial in Pregnancy & Parenting

Cute kids, and I love the cupcake theme!


mom guilt bingo

Sun Aug 23 11:06 AM by ohbonobogirl in Pregnancy & Parenting

Adding to the newborn edition:
Knowingly fell asleep on the couch with baby on your chest because...sleep...
Used a tablet or phone to surf net or play games while nursing rather than cherishing every moment
Took baby out in public solely because it's really great to hear strangers compliment your adorable little being.


teething necklaces

Tue Aug 4 7:12 PM by DarkOne in Pregnancy & Parenting

They'll chew on anything and everything. And I think you may have the scale wrong. These are large silicone beads. Think of it as a teething/chewing toy that is long enough to be worn around mom's neck. This isn't a string of pearls that will break if you tug on it and you'll and up with a mess of pearls on the floor or in baby's mouth. Google images for "babies and chew beads".
http://homemademothering.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/DSC7453.jpg
http://www.frugalcouponliving.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/chew-beads.jpg
And these are not at all related to those dumb amber necklaces...


do you have a parenting goal?

Sun Jul 26 5:16 PM by rosefox in Pregnancy & Parenting

I'm definitely in the "happy healthy child is my only goal" camp. I know some people who are superstars in their chosen fields. From what I can tell, being a superstar is completely exhausting and often really psychologically taxing. So if my kid isn't naturally inclined that way, I certainly don't intend to push them.

If I'm hoping for anything, I hope they'll end up being a quirky artsy/techy type like just about everyone else in the family. But my brother's a corporate lawyer and I love him anyway, so even if our kid turns out to be a white sheep, they'll just bond with Uncle A and it'll all be fine. :)


Braxton Hicks questions

Fri Aug 28 5:10 PM by geerlady in Pregnancy & Parenting

Was just in the hospital for a pre-term labour false alarm earlier this week.

My Braxton Hicks have changed this time around to be sometimes painful, period-like cramps extending to my lower back with contractions that are fairly regular (every 10 to 15 minutes regardless of what I am doing). But they have been medically confirmed to still just be Braxton Hicks :o

As a general comment, my BH have always been symmetric, so symmetry was never a good marker for me.

So... second time around and I still can't tell the difference :)


What new thing did your baby do this week?

Mon Aug 24 5:56 PM by Nachos in Pregnancy & Parenting

It's not my baby, but my sister taught my best friend's baby how to fist bump and I taught her how to say yolo. Heh.


What the Hell just entered my earhole?

Mon Aug 17 11:34 AM by DarkOne in Pregnancy & Parenting

Oh that reminded me of a friend's kid... My friend, her 6-yr old son and her 9-yr old daughter were driving to school in the morning, when the son proudly declared "When I grow up I want to be a racist." My friend said she went O_O and her daughter went on a rant as to how horrible of an idea that was... The son was all sad and confused when he responded "But I really love race cars!"

That cracked me up.


Kids books we hate

Mon Aug 3 1:10 PM by Sonic# in Pregnancy & Parenting

I absolutely loved at least one of the Berenstain Bears books (one based off of the Tortoise and the Hare), but I also hate at least one of them. The Berenstain Bears and the Trouble With Chores features a Mama Bear exasperated that no one is doing chores, with the kid bears and Papa Bear keep excusing themselves out of doing them. Rather than coming to some equitable distribution of labor by the end, the house gets really bad and the kids and pop finally binge clean. The situation didn't seem solved; Mama Bear just seemed pacified.


for all you moms and future moms

Tue Jul 21 2:28 AM by DarkOne in Pregnancy & Parenting

Eek and here I was about to say this felt like a tame version of Mother Lover.


Body Betrayal

Thu Aug 27 8:44 PM by mathnome in Pregnancy & Parenting

Ugh.

I'm currently 37 weeks, and while almost all my immediate coworkers have been super supportive of my being at work (and planning to continue being at work), I got a "tsk tsk" from another woman the other day about not taking my leave yet, and she hasn't been the first one. (Interestingly, so far it's only been the women who seem to think I'm supposed to leave already.)

Anyway, my line has been, "I'm really enjoying my project right now. I might as well enjoy it while I can!" (Which is true, and also generally shuts them up.)

Good luck! I hope the BP stays under the magic threshold.


What did you hate hearing when you were pregnant?

Mon Aug 24 11:52 AM by DarkOne in Pregnancy & Parenting


3. I think you're putting on too much weight. You know it''s going to make it harder to get your body back. (I'm 6 months post baby today, so now the comments have turned to "I told you!")


WHAAAAAT????
http://static1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20130207210531/disney/images/thumb/0/0b/Hercules-disneyscreencaps.com-1020.jpg/640px-Hercules-disneyscreencaps.com-1020.jpg


let's list our favorite children's books

Tue Aug 11 3:49 AM by DarkOne in Pregnancy & Parenting

As a grade school kid, I spent a lot of time perusing dictionaries, atlases and world almanacs. I blame it on my Big Bird's Sesame Street Dictionary, which was awesome:

https://img1.etsystatic.com/000/0/6267461/il_570xN.298036045.jpg
http://www.joemathieu.com/images/sesame_street_dictionary_open_book.jpg

Did anyone else own these? I have the full set stashed somewhere for when my kid is old enough.


RIE parenting

Sat Aug 1 2:09 AM by ohbonobogirl in Pregnancy & Parenting

I encountered this randomly the other day. Now I need to go dig some more into it...


the wonder weeks: practical help for parents or self-fulfilling quackery?

Mon Jul 20 2:29 AM by geerlady in Pregnancy & Parenting

I am actually a big fan of the wonder weeks. I found it better than most popular level books looking at infant development. My son was right on the clock for the fussy/happy times, and it was interesting to look for the new skills that I might not have noticed if I hadn't been watching for them.

On the other hand, I stumbled upon this accidentally, so didn't have any hype surrounding it. I also read the author biographies before picking up the book, so took everything with a grain of salt knowing that 1) the authors specialized in chimpanzees, not humans, and developed their theories based on chimps; 2) the bulk of the research is greater than 20 years old and so much of the book is out-dated; and 3) given #'s 1&2, incidental parenting advice had to be filtered.

That said, I still found the book useful and regularly recommend it to people.