This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.
The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of August 10th, 2012.
|Date||Progress||Overall probability of miscarriage|
|Friday August 31st, 2012||3W, 0D||33%|
|Saturday September 1st, 2012||3W, 1D||32.9%|
|Sunday September 2nd, 2012||3W, 2D||32.6%|
|Monday September 3rd, 2012||3W, 3D||32%|
|Tuesday September 4th, 2012||3W, 4D||31.3%|
|Wednesday September 5th, 2012||3W, 5D||30.3%|
|Thursday September 6th, 2012||3W, 6D||29.2%|
|Friday September 7th, 2012||4W, 0D||28%|
|Saturday September 8th, 2012||4W, 1D||26.6%|
|Sunday September 9th, 2012||4W, 2D||25.2%|
|Monday September 10th, 2012||4W, 3D||23.6%|
|Tuesday September 11th, 2012||4W, 4D||22.1%|
|Wednesday September 12th, 2012||4W, 5D||20.5%|
|Thursday September 13th, 2012||4W, 6D||18.9%|
|Friday September 14th, 2012||5W, 0D||17.3%|
|Saturday September 15th, 2012||5W, 1D||15.8%|
|Sunday September 16th, 2012||5W, 2D||14.4%|
|Monday September 17th, 2012||5W, 3D||13%|
|Tuesday September 18th, 2012||5W, 4D||11.7%|
|Wednesday September 19th, 2012||5W, 5D||10.5%|
|Thursday September 20th, 2012||5W, 6D||9.4%|
|Friday September 21st, 2012||6W, 0D||8.4%|
|Saturday September 22nd, 2012||6W, 1D||7.5%|
|Sunday September 23rd, 2012||6W, 2D||6.6%|
|Monday September 24th, 2012||6W, 3D||5.9%|
|Tuesday September 25th, 2012||6W, 4D||5.3%|
|Wednesday September 26th, 2012||6W, 5D||4.7%|
|Thursday September 27th, 2012||6W, 6D||4.3%|
|Friday September 28th, 2012||7W, 0D||3.9%|
|Saturday September 29th, 2012||7W, 1D||3.5%|
|Sunday September 30th, 2012||7W, 2D||3.2%|
|Monday October 1st, 2012||7W, 3D||3%|
|Tuesday October 2nd, 2012||7W, 4D||2.8%|
|Wednesday October 3rd, 2012||7W, 5D||2.6%|
|Thursday October 4th, 2012||7W, 6D||2.5%|
|Friday October 5th, 2012||8W, 0D||2.4%|
|Saturday October 6th, 2012||8W, 1D||2.3%|
|Sunday October 7th, 2012||8W, 2D||2.2%|
|Monday October 8th, 2012||8W, 3D||2.2%|
|Tuesday October 9th, 2012||8W, 4D||2.1%|
|Wednesday October 10th, 2012||8W, 5D||2.1%|
|Thursday October 11th, 2012||8W, 6D||2.1%|
|Friday October 12th, 2012||9W, 0D||2.1%|
|Saturday October 13th, 2012||9W, 1D||2%|
|Sunday October 14th, 2012||9W, 2D||2%|
|Monday October 15th, 2012||9W, 3D||2%|
|Tuesday October 16th, 2012||9W, 4D||2%|
|Wednesday October 17th, 2012||9W, 5D||2%|
|Thursday October 18th, 2012||9W, 6D||2%|
|Friday October 19th, 2012||10W, 0D||2%|
|Saturday October 20th, 2012||10W, 1D||2%|
|Sunday October 21st, 2012||10W, 2D||2%|
|Monday October 22nd, 2012||10W, 3D||2%|
|Tuesday October 23rd, 2012||10W, 4D||2%|
|Wednesday October 24th, 2012||10W, 5D||2%|
|Thursday October 25th, 2012||10W, 6D||2%|
|Friday October 26th, 2012||11W, 0D||2%|
|Saturday October 27th, 2012||11W, 1D||2%|
|Sunday October 28th, 2012||11W, 2D||2%|
|Monday October 29th, 2012||11W, 3D||2%|
|Tuesday October 30th, 2012||11W, 4D||2%|
|Wednesday October 31st, 2012||11W, 5D||2%|
|Thursday November 1st, 2012||11W, 6D||2%|
|Friday November 2nd, 2012||12W, 0D||2%|
|Saturday November 3rd, 2012||12W, 1D||2%|
|Sunday November 4th, 2012||12W, 2D||2%|
|Monday November 5th, 2012||12W, 3D||2%|
|Tuesday November 6th, 2012||12W, 4D||2%|
|Wednesday November 7th, 2012||12W, 5D||2%|
|Thursday November 8th, 2012||12W, 6D||2%|
All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (email@example.com).I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.
The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.
There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.
Charts are generated by flot.
I agree with everything lyra211 said and will add a few more.
Things you don't need:
Anything soft, fluffy or furry. My baby couldn't care less about minky blankets and soft toys. Plus they seem more gross to clean when they get covered in bodily fluids.
Clothes that look like adult clothes. It's so difficult to squeeze baby thighs into miniature corduroys or denim jeans which have no give to the fabric.
Baby washcloths. Babies make a disproportionate amount of mess so you need adult size washcloths to clean them up.
Things that were super useful:
A folding changing mat. I have a SkipHop one which has enough storage for wipes and diapers, which was all I needed to carry with me when I had a newborn. Now that he's bigger, I appreciate the larger size of the mat because the one that came with my diaper bag is way too small.
Balls. They were the first thing he played with and still his favourite toys. At the beginning he liked one made by Oball which was easy to pick up, and a soft fabric one which made a crinkly noise. Now he loves throwing a soft rubber ball and watching it bounce.
I was proficient in fine/gross motor skills and cognitive development for my age, but I was further behind in speech/language development and social/emotional development. I caught up in them perhaps by ages 5-7, with vestiges of social issues lasting longer (like my temper). There was nothing inherently bad about being a bit off in timing, though in my case my imbalance was severe enough that I did need professional help from a speech pathologist.
....New social situations make me feel somewhat awkward, but I've also learned that many other people feel the same way about novel contexts, so I think I'm with the curve there.
geez, are you my twin, sonic? XD
I grew up with definite lag in speech/language development. I had a speech pathologist in elementary school work on my -L-'s, -r-'s and -th-'s; and when I essentially "graduated" from it I was taken out of the IEP program. my mom and I now see that being a mistake. middle school went decently, but I struggled in language arts; and by the time I went into high school I was struggling in my history/English humanities course and Algebra. I struggled in English classes because of my inability to express myself through language clearly, and I struggled in algebra because I couldn't follow a thing my teacher was saying (we had someone tutor me who literally asked why she was tutoring me because I grasped the concepts five minutes after her explaining it).
It is wrong to lock horses in cages and breed them as if they are slaves.
I sincerely hope that you aren't condoning slavery with that implication that it isn't wrong to keep humans in cages and force them to "breed". It's probably just an unfortunate word choice.
I said it is wrong to put horses in cages and breed them as slaves. So I don't know how you read things. Frankly you are irritating me because I shouldn't have to explain how I said 2+2=4 when you are accusing me of saying 2+2=5. In this age people should have mastered how to read clearly and I shouldn't have to micromanage my text and clear what I have already layed out clearly for you.
To be fair, if the girl is a Female to Male transsexual, her hormones are not so important, at an old age Male hormones will mutate her body and have the same effect. But with boy's its more tragic and serious. Boys who want to be girls, must stop their toxic T at an early age, or else their face will be permanently ugly and bony
It's about teaching children to make love so that they do it themselves. Love has no age or genetic requirement. It's healthy for young siblings to make love, and it's unhealthy if they don't. Sexual repression of children fucks them up as adults. Because the parents are secretive about it, children get the idea that it's bad, which starts the process of sexual repression.
Gross. Yuck. Eww. I've run out of ways to express how disgusted I am with what you've said here. Ewwwwwww!!!!!!!
No, siblings should not make love. It is in our genetic interest that we don't do this. Ever. This is a cultural universal.
I think a big driver in getting them to read is to find stories that they like.
Definitely this. I once tutored a kid who had been held back twice in elementary school and was still a couple grade levels behind on reading skills. He was given a book from the
One of my cousins kids read the Warriors series and was really into it. She was bulllied in school, but I don't think it was instigated by her reading choices.
I don't know any recent books for this age group but I've heard great things about the Adventure Time comics.
I find theimaginationtree.com has lots of inspiring ideas. Some look like they take quite a bit of prep, but if you're doing it for a whole class then it might be worth it. You can sort activities by age as well so it's easier to search.
I'm on the fence about this. I was always the youngest in my class because I was born 2 days before the cut off. I started school JUST after my 5th birthday (Go England.... not...) and this made a huge gap between me and the oldest kids in the class who were almost a whole year older. However, even though I might have struggled more then I'm ok now, you know? It might have even been helpful for me, pushing myself to learn more and try and be smarter. My sister was held back for a year in preschool in Germany because she didn't speak German well enough for the first grade and so she has always been the oldest in class and she's not really as academic as me. This is all anecdata of course, but interesting to ponder over.
I could see saunas becoming an obsession for a number of very social reasons as well, depending on your family's sauna practices. I honestly can't think of any common themes or rituals shared by all branches of my U.S. family, other than like eating together, but that seems too banal(/essential for survival) to really become an obsession. My Finnish family, on the other hand, all sauna as a social ritual. Whether or not you allow your kid in saunas yet, if there's a lot of exposure to the ritual, they could probably pick up on the social importance. It might make sense that kids are probably wired to pick up on things that the adults in their life think are important (**not a child psychologist**).
<...> I know I was super into the instant evaporation of water and associated *hissssss* the first time I was in a sauna at like age seven.
This is an excellent point. And although I know they exist, I haven't encountered any Finns who don't like sauna. There are a lot of steps to it. The kid gets to help their grandfather build the fire when we're together, knows that wood burning saunas are better than electric saunas, and absolutely loves the sound of the water hitting the hot stones. I can't imitate the sound as well as the kid does.
Mental health issues will never start to hurt, therefore no preemptive treatment is needed.
Mental health issues hurt, take it from me. There are many psychosomatic disorders out there which affect your body even though the real problem is in your mind. But to get better, you HAVE to treat both. Pre-emptive treatment also can stop some disorders from becoming too bad. And yes, sometimes drugs can be very very helpful.
I don't think you know what you're talking about and all this "I know because of divine intuition" bullshit is starting to piss me off. if you ask others for sources, be kind enough to provide some yourself.
If this thread continues to be shit-slinging, I will lock it.
All the pliable/crafty stuff I can think of has been mentioned. ETA: I lied. Bread dough!
But if generally tactile surfaces also apply, mermaid sequin pillows are comforting. It was one of my impulse buys at a department store about a month ago. I couldn't stop petting the display. The sequined side seemed like it wouldn't be comfortable to rest on but it hasn't been an issue. My stepdad really likes them so I got him one for giftmas and he said it helps distract him when chronic pain keeps him awake at night. https://www.etsy.com/listing/470423508/ ... _active_40
I haven't field tested them on my nieces and nephews yet. That could be fun.
Thank you! I'm currently stuck under 20lbs of sleeping baby because all day time naps have to be in my arms or they don't happen.
My statement was meant to indicate that I'm not finished with my thoughts on this topic, rather than to create drama.
I believe parents in this world universally make a big mistake when it comes time to start thinking about their children using the toilet. Kids feel forced to do it, and this breeds resentment and damages their self-esteem. Having the father (the mother is needed in the battle against the patriarchy) stay home with the children and homeschool them while they haven't yet decided to train themselves is the way to avoid humiliation by their more-repressed peers.
I would also like to point out that limiting elimination to the toilet at any age creates situations where the person's health is compromised due to the lack of availability of a bathroom. In these situations, I strongly advise parents to let their children wear diapers no matter their age. Retention can lead to kidney stones, intestinal damage, urinary tract infections and harmful bacteria and toxins in the bloodstream.