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Daily odds of pregnancy miscarriage

Your daily page | Spacefem's Weekly Pregnancy Blog: Week 1

This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.

The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of August 10th, 2012.

Change LMP:
Month Day Year
Date Progress Overall probability of miscarriage
Friday August 31st, 2012 3W, 0D 33%
Saturday September 1st, 2012 3W, 1D 32.9%
Sunday September 2nd, 2012 3W, 2D 32.6%
Monday September 3rd, 2012 3W, 3D 32%
Tuesday September 4th, 2012 3W, 4D 31.3%
Wednesday September 5th, 2012 3W, 5D 30.3%
Thursday September 6th, 2012 3W, 6D 29.2%
Friday September 7th, 2012 4W, 0D 28%
Saturday September 8th, 2012 4W, 1D 26.6%
Sunday September 9th, 2012 4W, 2D 25.2%
Monday September 10th, 2012 4W, 3D 23.6%
Tuesday September 11th, 2012 4W, 4D 22.1%
Wednesday September 12th, 2012 4W, 5D 20.5%
Thursday September 13th, 2012 4W, 6D 18.9%
Friday September 14th, 2012 5W, 0D 17.3%
Saturday September 15th, 2012 5W, 1D 15.8%
Sunday September 16th, 2012 5W, 2D 14.4%
Monday September 17th, 2012 5W, 3D 13%
Tuesday September 18th, 2012 5W, 4D 11.7%
Wednesday September 19th, 2012 5W, 5D 10.5%
Thursday September 20th, 2012 5W, 6D 9.4%
Friday September 21st, 2012 6W, 0D 8.4%
Saturday September 22nd, 2012 6W, 1D 7.5%
Sunday September 23rd, 2012 6W, 2D 6.6%
Monday September 24th, 2012 6W, 3D 5.9%
Tuesday September 25th, 2012 6W, 4D 5.3%
Wednesday September 26th, 2012 6W, 5D 4.7%
Thursday September 27th, 2012 6W, 6D 4.3%
Friday September 28th, 2012 7W, 0D 3.9%
Saturday September 29th, 2012 7W, 1D 3.5%
Sunday September 30th, 2012 7W, 2D 3.2%
Monday October 1st, 2012 7W, 3D 3%
Tuesday October 2nd, 2012 7W, 4D 2.8%
Wednesday October 3rd, 2012 7W, 5D 2.6%
Thursday October 4th, 2012 7W, 6D 2.5%
Friday October 5th, 2012 8W, 0D 2.4%
Saturday October 6th, 2012 8W, 1D 2.3%
Sunday October 7th, 2012 8W, 2D 2.2%
Monday October 8th, 2012 8W, 3D 2.2%
Tuesday October 9th, 2012 8W, 4D 2.1%
Wednesday October 10th, 2012 8W, 5D 2.1%
Thursday October 11th, 2012 8W, 6D 2.1%
Friday October 12th, 2012 9W, 0D 2.1%
Saturday October 13th, 2012 9W, 1D 2%
Sunday October 14th, 2012 9W, 2D 2%
Monday October 15th, 2012 9W, 3D 2%
Tuesday October 16th, 2012 9W, 4D 2%
Wednesday October 17th, 2012 9W, 5D 2%
Thursday October 18th, 2012 9W, 6D 2%
Friday October 19th, 2012 10W, 0D 2%
Saturday October 20th, 2012 10W, 1D 2%
Sunday October 21st, 2012 10W, 2D 2%
Monday October 22nd, 2012 10W, 3D 2%
Tuesday October 23rd, 2012 10W, 4D 2%
Wednesday October 24th, 2012 10W, 5D 2%
Thursday October 25th, 2012 10W, 6D 2%
Friday October 26th, 2012 11W, 0D 2%
Saturday October 27th, 2012 11W, 1D 2%
Sunday October 28th, 2012 11W, 2D 2%
Monday October 29th, 2012 11W, 3D 2%
Tuesday October 30th, 2012 11W, 4D 2%
Wednesday October 31st, 2012 11W, 5D 2%
Thursday November 1st, 2012 11W, 6D 2%
Friday November 2nd, 2012 12W, 0D 2%
Saturday November 3rd, 2012 12W, 1D 2%
Sunday November 4th, 2012 12W, 2D 2%
Monday November 5th, 2012 12W, 3D 2%
Tuesday November 6th, 2012 12W, 4D 2%
Wednesday November 7th, 2012 12W, 5D 2%
Thursday November 8th, 2012 12W, 6D 2%

Future probability of miscarriage at a given day

Notes and disclaimers

All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).

I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.

The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.

There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.

Charts are generated by flot.

Recent Comments

For more support, encouragement, Q&A, you are invited to join our pregnancy forum. We are dedicated to answering complicated questions as logically as we possibly can.

Bilingual Babies

Fri Mar 27 2:18 AM by Nae in Pregnancy & Parenting

As someone who only knows English, I am so impressed by people who are bilingual, trilingual, or multilingual. Only knowing English feels like you can only understand part of the world. The problem I've had is I don't really know what language I should try to learn.

I think it's a wonderful thing to be able to teach a child two languages. The part others have raised about being able to communicate with family members makes it that much more rewarding.

Don't worry about the naysayers - they always have to pick on something, and if it wasn't that, they'd just find something else. ;)


How Good Parents Miss Child Sexual Abuse and 5 Questions to Change That

Tue Mar 24 3:20 AM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

And that includes parents too - I try to always ask "can I have a hug/kiss" rather than "give me a hug/kiss" and that she can always always say no if she doesn't want to, even with me. (She's old enough now that I've had enough practice that even writing "give me a hug" sounds weird to me)

Also I think on a more general level it's good to practice asking these kinds of questions anyway. Not just for abuse, but in general if you want to know what's going on in their life. Asking "how was school" gets an "I dunno" even now, but asking more specific things like "What was something funny that happened today" or "What did you do at recess?" really gets her talking more. Not sure where I read that, but the kinds of questions above made me think that sometimes just asking a better question will help get at what you want to know more than asking generalities.

The other thing is definitely definitely not making judgment on those things that they're saying. Instead try "What did you think about that ?" or "What did you do when happened?" "What would make you feel safe?" "What could you try if that happens again?" "Is there anything you'd like me to do?" These are things that I've asked wrt other kids on the playground (pushing etc) but I think it's the same idea in terms of empowering the child to talk about things that happen and letting them help come to the conclusions. Which isn't to say you can't help them get there by suggesting actions they could do, etc, just that if you get them talking about things that happen on a daily basis then if something weird happens then they'll likely be more comfortable telling you, especially if you've already shown them what boundaries there are and respecting those boundaries (like not tickling if they say they don't want to be tickled etc).


How did you decide how many kids to have?

Fri Feb 27 2:42 AM by MFS in Pregnancy & Parenting

First 2 were on purpose, 3rd kinda not so much, 4th was totally an oops (when you think things are broken, they have this habit of fixing themselves). Made sure we were done after that. Aside from that, we knew we'd have at least 2, likely 3, but the timing was not at all what we thought we were "planning". Such is life.


name trends

Wed Jan 28 8:58 AM by Lemon in Pregnancy & Parenting

Some of my family members who work in the healthcare system have overheard some doozies.

I work in healthcare, so I can relate. I think my favourite was a kid called "Abcde" which we were assured was pronounced "Abasidee". Mirena was a cute choice, named after the contraceptive device. Then there have been some good narrative names including places of birth - e.g. "Shell" (after the baby born in a petrol station carpark) - and places of conception - e.g. "...(a suburb which I'll keep secret - just in case this somehow breaches some poor kid's privacy) bus stop."


Work

Thu Jan 15 9:17 PM by bigdaddy in Pregnancy & Parenting

I will do cheers but in people's experiences and options I should be ok


Interacting with parents whose choices you don't trust

Thu Mar 26 3:08 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

How can you tell who has been vaccinated or not?
That's the tricky part, you can't really. So unless the parents say something you never actually know.


It takes 13 million calories to raise a child!

Sun Mar 15 6:33 PM by Metcodon1 in Pregnancy & Parenting

Child care is BEYOND insanely expensive... When my husband and I were deciding to to have children we agreed to both go part time (4 days a week) in order to make our lives easier (we both make more than we would pay for day care, so we did take a financial hit with this decision). For example, whoever is home on a given day can throw in some laundry, or some food into the slow cooker, run errands... All of these things multiply in number once you have kids at the same time becoming more difficult to schedule. Unfortunately, when my daughter was around 1 my work situation changed and I had to go full time... let me tell you, it was definitely easier when I wasn't.

Anyway, the point I am getting to here is, when kids are little they require a lot of attention and sometimes (often?) some career sacrifice but it's TEMPORARY. When we decided to get pregnant we agreed that we would both slow down career wise for 5 years. For us it means, we do our jobs, we come home. We don't sign up for extra projects, we try to limit our travel, but it's all just for now. We also decided to have our kids close together for that reason (they'll be 2 years apart). Anyway, it's something to keep in mind. An 8 year old goes to school and doesn't need constant monitoring to keep from killing him/herself. It's ok to decide to slow down for a period of time, knowing that you'll come roaring back once they're older.


Bonding

Fri Feb 6 4:35 AM by Zeph in Pregnancy & Parenting

Bonding with my future infant is a concern of mine, because my depression is debilitating. I'm relieved to know that normally functioning women don't feel that head-over-heels mushy baby love.


34 Weeks

Fri Jan 23 11:57 PM by Sonic# in Pregnancy & Parenting

Probably not. As we pointed out in the other topic, 34 weeks isn't even on the chart because it's so rare:
http://spacefem.com/pregnant/charts/duedate1.php

You'd be better off worrying over a car accident.


Why Pocket Diapers Are Better Than Disposables

Sun Jan 11 3:31 PM by Nancy Erick in Pregnancy & Parenting

Hi everyone

A Beautiful article by writer Kathryn McDowell recently I read liked to share with you

Why Pocket Diapers Are Better Than Disposables :


As a young parent, you've no doubt heard of pocket diapers. Perhaps a neighbor or a co-worker told you about them. Or it was your babysitter, who asked you to get them soon. Well, so many families in America are today turning to pocket diapers for their little ones. But a majority still holds on to disposable diapers, while being curious about pocket diapers at the same time.

Why are diapers so great? For a start, pocket diapers come with brand new fabrics and super absorbent pads, are easy to put on, simple to take off, easy to wash and quick to dry. And they are better than disposable diapers.

They are Cheaper
Until your child is potty trained, you'd probably spend something close to $2500 to $3000 on diapers - which is quite a lot. Biodegradable disposable diapers are even costlier. But with pocket ones, you won't have to spend anything more than $350 to $400, till your child is potty trained.


Tips and pitfalls for gender-neutral parenting

Thu Mar 26 10:17 AM by Nae in Pregnancy & Parenting

I'm a while off having kids, but everything is so pervasively gendered I've had these concerns too.

Kids will learn a lot from what their parents do rather than say, so the most important thing you can do is just to be a good parent who believes in equality.

Media will be yelling at them their whole lives that they should conform and buy their products etc., so a healthy dose of cynicism could be learnt to.

You could try bringing it up with your kids to challenge them; "But why does he say that toy isn't for boys?".


Breastfeeding & accoutrements thereof

Thu Mar 12 8:27 PM by Rgipson in Pregnancy & Parenting

It's okay to admit your happiness is worth more than the "good" that solely breastfeeding supplies.

I breastfed my first until 10 months. I fed/pumped thru many growth spurts or dips in supply. Who knows, right? Baby would cry and cry and I could tell there was no milk, but I persevered. The trickiest part was, she wouldn't nurse in a room where she could look around or hear sounds (I'm a SAHM), so I had to go in a dark room, turn the lights off, and use a white noise machine. EVERY TIME SHE FED FOR 10 MONTHS. Talk about being hamstrung. I tried on so many occasions to feed her in other places, only to have a baby scream, scream, scream, until we got back to the dark room.

I was sleep deprived, overstimulated from all that screaming (she had colic until 14 months), and I was depressed as all get out. When I finally stopped, I began to feel like myself again. I believe that just as some women feel euphoria from the let down - that glorious oxytocin rush - it negatively effected my brain chemistry. It contributed to a negative mental health spiral.


Because judging other parents is absurd.

Tue Feb 3 7:05 AM by Zeph in Pregnancy & Parenting

It's alright to discuss these topics, but there needs to be boundaries. I would use the following, personally:

1. Don't insert yourself into a stranger's situation or bring up the topic yourself to a stranger.
2. It's probably not your business if you're not a parent yourself.
3. Ask the person why they are making these choices, don't assume.
4. Try to end on a positive note.

I don't feel right bringing up to my sister that I don't agree that she spanks my nephew, but after being a teacher, I am pretty forgiving of parents' choices. It's the hardest role there is. Even though I want to raise my children on nutritious meals, cloth diapers, and museum passes, I know I'm going to slip up and give them fries, Huggies, and Disney DVD's.

I also feel that home birth is a fine option for low-risk births, where the mother is well coached and the midwife is reputable. If you live near a hospital and your midwife is highly qualified, why not? They have equipment. I won't be choosing this option, but with any birth plan there needs to be a series of precautions taken.


sleep humor

Fri Jan 23 7:13 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

Here's a really funny humor bit about sleep, but the same general idea can apply to pretty much any "advice" given to new parents.

"I bought all the top books on baby sleep and development. I read through them all, as well as several blogs and sleep websites. I gathered lots of advice:"

https://chimericalcapuchin.wordpress.co ... babybooks/


some quotes recently I read

Sat Jan 10 4:50 PM by Nancy Erick in Pregnancy & Parenting

i search about these quotes in google