This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.
The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of August 10th, 2012.
|Date||Progress||Overall probability of miscarriage|
|Friday August 31st, 2012||3W, 0D||33%|
|Saturday September 1st, 2012||3W, 1D||32.9%|
|Sunday September 2nd, 2012||3W, 2D||32.6%|
|Monday September 3rd, 2012||3W, 3D||32%|
|Tuesday September 4th, 2012||3W, 4D||31.3%|
|Wednesday September 5th, 2012||3W, 5D||30.3%|
|Thursday September 6th, 2012||3W, 6D||29.2%|
|Friday September 7th, 2012||4W, 0D||28%|
|Saturday September 8th, 2012||4W, 1D||26.6%|
|Sunday September 9th, 2012||4W, 2D||25.2%|
|Monday September 10th, 2012||4W, 3D||23.6%|
|Tuesday September 11th, 2012||4W, 4D||22.1%|
|Wednesday September 12th, 2012||4W, 5D||20.5%|
|Thursday September 13th, 2012||4W, 6D||18.9%|
|Friday September 14th, 2012||5W, 0D||17.3%|
|Saturday September 15th, 2012||5W, 1D||15.8%|
|Sunday September 16th, 2012||5W, 2D||14.4%|
|Monday September 17th, 2012||5W, 3D||13%|
|Tuesday September 18th, 2012||5W, 4D||11.7%|
|Wednesday September 19th, 2012||5W, 5D||10.5%|
|Thursday September 20th, 2012||5W, 6D||9.4%|
|Friday September 21st, 2012||6W, 0D||8.4%|
|Saturday September 22nd, 2012||6W, 1D||7.5%|
|Sunday September 23rd, 2012||6W, 2D||6.6%|
|Monday September 24th, 2012||6W, 3D||5.9%|
|Tuesday September 25th, 2012||6W, 4D||5.3%|
|Wednesday September 26th, 2012||6W, 5D||4.7%|
|Thursday September 27th, 2012||6W, 6D||4.3%|
|Friday September 28th, 2012||7W, 0D||3.9%|
|Saturday September 29th, 2012||7W, 1D||3.5%|
|Sunday September 30th, 2012||7W, 2D||3.2%|
|Monday October 1st, 2012||7W, 3D||3%|
|Tuesday October 2nd, 2012||7W, 4D||2.8%|
|Wednesday October 3rd, 2012||7W, 5D||2.6%|
|Thursday October 4th, 2012||7W, 6D||2.5%|
|Friday October 5th, 2012||8W, 0D||2.4%|
|Saturday October 6th, 2012||8W, 1D||2.3%|
|Sunday October 7th, 2012||8W, 2D||2.2%|
|Monday October 8th, 2012||8W, 3D||2.2%|
|Tuesday October 9th, 2012||8W, 4D||2.1%|
|Wednesday October 10th, 2012||8W, 5D||2.1%|
|Thursday October 11th, 2012||8W, 6D||2.1%|
|Friday October 12th, 2012||9W, 0D||2.1%|
|Saturday October 13th, 2012||9W, 1D||2%|
|Sunday October 14th, 2012||9W, 2D||2%|
|Monday October 15th, 2012||9W, 3D||2%|
|Tuesday October 16th, 2012||9W, 4D||2%|
|Wednesday October 17th, 2012||9W, 5D||2%|
|Thursday October 18th, 2012||9W, 6D||2%|
|Friday October 19th, 2012||10W, 0D||2%|
|Saturday October 20th, 2012||10W, 1D||2%|
|Sunday October 21st, 2012||10W, 2D||2%|
|Monday October 22nd, 2012||10W, 3D||2%|
|Tuesday October 23rd, 2012||10W, 4D||2%|
|Wednesday October 24th, 2012||10W, 5D||2%|
|Thursday October 25th, 2012||10W, 6D||2%|
|Friday October 26th, 2012||11W, 0D||2%|
|Saturday October 27th, 2012||11W, 1D||2%|
|Sunday October 28th, 2012||11W, 2D||2%|
|Monday October 29th, 2012||11W, 3D||2%|
|Tuesday October 30th, 2012||11W, 4D||2%|
|Wednesday October 31st, 2012||11W, 5D||2%|
|Thursday November 1st, 2012||11W, 6D||2%|
|Friday November 2nd, 2012||12W, 0D||2%|
|Saturday November 3rd, 2012||12W, 1D||2%|
|Sunday November 4th, 2012||12W, 2D||2%|
|Monday November 5th, 2012||12W, 3D||2%|
|Tuesday November 6th, 2012||12W, 4D||2%|
|Wednesday November 7th, 2012||12W, 5D||2%|
|Thursday November 8th, 2012||12W, 6D||2%|
All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (firstname.lastname@example.org).I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.
The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.
There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.
Charts are generated by flot.
Just got back from an infant first aid class. Current guidelines (in the USA) now say you should not use any kind of finger sweep (for adults and infants) - it's better to let the body try to clear the obstruction itself. The only time you intervene is when the airway is completely obstructed and they cannot breathe. But the teacher did say it's hard not to step in when you see your baby gagging, so if you really can't stop yourself then use a finger and thumb 'pincer' rather than a single finger sweep (which poses a higher risk of pushing the obstruction further down the throat).
My great aunt had a baby while on the toilet... but then, she had 19 children in total so I'm sure by baby 10 it wasn't that big of a deal.
One thing I do now that I wish I had done earlier on (though not sure I could have done in the first 6 months due to brain fog), is if I find myself thinking "I wish I could do X" or "I wish I had time for..." even if it's a fleeting thought, I write it down. Well actually I put it in my toodledo list, which I can access on my phone/computer/wherever. Then when I find time I'm like soooo what do I do again? Oh yeah! I wanted to do this thing! I mean, as simple as "read book" or "bake a thing" or something.
Early on though it might be good to look at the list though. Just add things to it. Eventually it gets better and time will come back.
^This reminded me, we got two receiving blankets that were made for us, and they were bigger than the little ones that people buy. THOSE were way more useful for much longer.
So, my pregnancy hormones are causing me major mood swings right now. I don't necessarily feel ashamed of it, but I'm frustrated enormously by it because I've got a ton of projects at work and a two-year-old to deal with, and I honestly do not have time to sit and cry for 30 minutes every few hours. I really hate being pregnant, for that and other reasons, but right now it's mostly that.
This morning I felt awesome and totally zen and amazing and only vaguely nauseated, and then a couple of things hit at work that I routinely eat for goddamn BREAKFAST and I'm a puddle of tears in my office. Luckily, I work from home so no one can see me, and all I can really do is push through it and keep getting stuff done. But it majorly sucked. Maybe there's no way around it...but if anyone has any ideas for coping with this stuff I'd be grateful. When you Google pregnancy hormones and mood swings the majority of advice is aimed at husbands "surviving" it, which immediately sends me into a rage spiral.
Yeah, I went back and checked some sources -- here's the table that I sort of remembered from when I was going through the ectopic scare:
So, half of ectopic pregnancies never get above an hCG level of 1,000, and only 9% ever make it above 10,000. Needless to say, the ones that do keep rising to those very high levels tend to be the scary ones, since those are the ones that keep growing and can cause things like tubal ruptures.
I can't link to it because it's subscriber only, but Up To Date (which has reviews of the most recent medical studies) has the following to say about the hCG threshold of 2,000 (some practices use 1,500 instead) and diagnosis of ectopic pregnancy:
The diagnostic criteria depend upon the relationship to the hCG discriminatory zone (serum hCG level above which a gestational sac should be visualized by TVUS if an IUP is present). The hCG level of the discriminatory zone varies, but in most institutions it is 1500 to 2000 IU/L (see 'Discriminatory zone' above and 'Clinical protocol' above):
This thread makes me want to make a graph of my excitement levels about other people's pregnancies. It would start off quite mild through teenage years and college, start to spike in early adulthood when I started thinking about maybe being pregnant someday but it was still a distant future possibility, reach a high right around the time my first friends started getting pregnant, drop a little when my husband and I started trying and encountered issues (took us 11 months first time around with my irregular cycles), reach a frenzied crescendo around the time I got pregnant (I was super-excited about being pregnant at the same time as one of my best friends -- we were due with baby girls within a week of each other). Then it dropped like a rock to the depths of deepest despair when our first daughter died at 18w2d in my first pregnancy -- I just couldn't bear to see other pregnant women, especially smug pregnant women who were rubbing their bellies all the time and had the nursery painted by the middle of the second trimester. Now that I'm 36 weeks pregnant with our second, a son, my excitement levels about other people's pregnancies are generally about where they were in teenage/college years, although now tinged with a huge amount of cynicism. Since everyone I know is pregnant at my age, I couldn't care less if someone I know is due within a few weeks of me -- I've been there before. Someone pregnant for the first time and over the moon? I remember feeling that way. It didn't end well. I'm >8 months pregnant, and I still get intensely jealous of first-time pregnant women who have never experienced problems. Heck, I still feel stabs of jealousy when I see other pregnant women rubbing their bellies. I've spent my whole pregnancy mentally keeping my kid at arms' length, not really believing that he's going to be born. I'm still emotional and excited about my pregnancy, but it's all dulled considerably compared to what I felt the first time around -- and I spend much more time worrying and educating myself about potential problems.
I definitely don't like these types of toys. I was so grateful when my brother asked how we felt about electronic toys before purchasing one for our kid. Unfortunately, most people don't ask, and even if they know don't care. Our general policy is to not replace batteries when they die, but we haven't caused any to die myteriously. The only batteries we have in the house are attached to a phone, a laptop, and a couple spares for a flashlight.
Just today I heard about this small
We had something similar happen on the oldest's birthday last year. We had a talk with him about how he was fortunate, and had a lot of things, and asked him to consider sharing with less fortunate kids. He ended up leaving half of them unopened and we took them to the children's hospital.
Thanks everyone! Lots for me to think about...
I have just started prenatal yoga and it seems that it will be pretty useful - although it's way more physical hard work than I expected (I'd better get used to it now, I guess).
Also, I hope I get an inflatable baby from whichever course I end up going with.
It's not at my (US) hospital, alas, and I got the impression it is not common. :-( I am just planning to eat a bunch of yogurt and other probiotic stuff after birth and hope for the best (there's apparently some evidence that good bacteria can be passed through breast milk, so hopefully as I rebuild my own microbiome I'll also be helping my baby to build his). I'm simply not willing to take the risks associate with passing up antibiotics, so I think focusing on rebuilding a healthy microbiome is probably the best I can do.
It's currently -22 C here and didn't get above -18. The wind was pretty bad too, which makes it worse. *shrug* Brisk activity would have been fine, like sledding or skiing, if it hadn't been for the wind, but trying to actually learn things I think would be much more challenging. Not the least of which is it would damage any equipment you were trying to use. I don't think you could really sustainably do it for the entire winter, or at least not for January and February.
^ You'd have to pick something like heavy metal or drum & bass. Your kid would turn out all punk as a result, so it's win-win!
I think your baby totally wins the "disapproving baby" contest. Her face is amazing. She's got the eyebrows and the mouth and oh man.