This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.
The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of August 10th, 2012.
|Date||Progress||Overall probability of miscarriage|
|Friday August 31st, 2012||3W, 0D||33%|
|Saturday September 1st, 2012||3W, 1D||32.9%|
|Sunday September 2nd, 2012||3W, 2D||32.6%|
|Monday September 3rd, 2012||3W, 3D||32%|
|Tuesday September 4th, 2012||3W, 4D||31.3%|
|Wednesday September 5th, 2012||3W, 5D||30.3%|
|Thursday September 6th, 2012||3W, 6D||29.2%|
|Friday September 7th, 2012||4W, 0D||28%|
|Saturday September 8th, 2012||4W, 1D||26.6%|
|Sunday September 9th, 2012||4W, 2D||25.2%|
|Monday September 10th, 2012||4W, 3D||23.6%|
|Tuesday September 11th, 2012||4W, 4D||22.1%|
|Wednesday September 12th, 2012||4W, 5D||20.5%|
|Thursday September 13th, 2012||4W, 6D||18.9%|
|Friday September 14th, 2012||5W, 0D||17.3%|
|Saturday September 15th, 2012||5W, 1D||15.8%|
|Sunday September 16th, 2012||5W, 2D||14.4%|
|Monday September 17th, 2012||5W, 3D||13%|
|Tuesday September 18th, 2012||5W, 4D||11.7%|
|Wednesday September 19th, 2012||5W, 5D||10.5%|
|Thursday September 20th, 2012||5W, 6D||9.4%|
|Friday September 21st, 2012||6W, 0D||8.4%|
|Saturday September 22nd, 2012||6W, 1D||7.5%|
|Sunday September 23rd, 2012||6W, 2D||6.6%|
|Monday September 24th, 2012||6W, 3D||5.9%|
|Tuesday September 25th, 2012||6W, 4D||5.3%|
|Wednesday September 26th, 2012||6W, 5D||4.7%|
|Thursday September 27th, 2012||6W, 6D||4.3%|
|Friday September 28th, 2012||7W, 0D||3.9%|
|Saturday September 29th, 2012||7W, 1D||3.5%|
|Sunday September 30th, 2012||7W, 2D||3.2%|
|Monday October 1st, 2012||7W, 3D||3%|
|Tuesday October 2nd, 2012||7W, 4D||2.8%|
|Wednesday October 3rd, 2012||7W, 5D||2.6%|
|Thursday October 4th, 2012||7W, 6D||2.5%|
|Friday October 5th, 2012||8W, 0D||2.4%|
|Saturday October 6th, 2012||8W, 1D||2.3%|
|Sunday October 7th, 2012||8W, 2D||2.2%|
|Monday October 8th, 2012||8W, 3D||2.2%|
|Tuesday October 9th, 2012||8W, 4D||2.1%|
|Wednesday October 10th, 2012||8W, 5D||2.1%|
|Thursday October 11th, 2012||8W, 6D||2.1%|
|Friday October 12th, 2012||9W, 0D||2.1%|
|Saturday October 13th, 2012||9W, 1D||2%|
|Sunday October 14th, 2012||9W, 2D||2%|
|Monday October 15th, 2012||9W, 3D||2%|
|Tuesday October 16th, 2012||9W, 4D||2%|
|Wednesday October 17th, 2012||9W, 5D||2%|
|Thursday October 18th, 2012||9W, 6D||2%|
|Friday October 19th, 2012||10W, 0D||2%|
|Saturday October 20th, 2012||10W, 1D||2%|
|Sunday October 21st, 2012||10W, 2D||2%|
|Monday October 22nd, 2012||10W, 3D||2%|
|Tuesday October 23rd, 2012||10W, 4D||2%|
|Wednesday October 24th, 2012||10W, 5D||2%|
|Thursday October 25th, 2012||10W, 6D||2%|
|Friday October 26th, 2012||11W, 0D||2%|
|Saturday October 27th, 2012||11W, 1D||2%|
|Sunday October 28th, 2012||11W, 2D||2%|
|Monday October 29th, 2012||11W, 3D||2%|
|Tuesday October 30th, 2012||11W, 4D||2%|
|Wednesday October 31st, 2012||11W, 5D||2%|
|Thursday November 1st, 2012||11W, 6D||2%|
|Friday November 2nd, 2012||12W, 0D||2%|
|Saturday November 3rd, 2012||12W, 1D||2%|
|Sunday November 4th, 2012||12W, 2D||2%|
|Monday November 5th, 2012||12W, 3D||2%|
|Tuesday November 6th, 2012||12W, 4D||2%|
|Wednesday November 7th, 2012||12W, 5D||2%|
|Thursday November 8th, 2012||12W, 6D||2%|
All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (firstname.lastname@example.org).I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.
The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.
There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.
Charts are generated by flot.
I was trying to think up poll ideas and "favorite art museum" came to mind... but since just about every city in the world has one, and they're all amazing for their own reasons!
so pick an art museum that you personally have been to, and tell us about it. where is it, why is it wonderful, what's the coolest thing to see?
I'll start with the Nelson-Atkins in Kansas City... known for having giant shuttlecocks on the lawn, but I've been going to this one since I was a little kid:
Amazing Chinese gallery, complete with architecture (http://www.nelson-atkins.org/collection ... hinese.cfm)
Someone who teaches literature, that a friend of mine knows said she told her kids "I don't understand..." would be better to say "I want to understand". I'm not totally sure I want to be able to understand fully, because actually understanding would involve so much pain.
How much rage must you have to hold in that it has to spill out in this way? It must be so, so horribly much. How much pain is there, on a daily basis, for people of color, to have to deal with. It's bad enough as a woman, and the pain and anger I get due to events based on that is bad enough. I cannot even fathom, as much as I try, to feel the kind of pain that is going on.
This kind of systemic failure, as Neko rightly points out, is the problem. And it doesn't change.
When I was little I remember getting a few toys. My parents didn't have that much money (I learned later), but even getting a few things (some clothes, a bucket of duplos) was plenty. The family gifts were the big ones - things like a computer (OMG a Commodore 128) and two very nice sleds.
I fixed the chat pages, sorcery does have a web-based client that's working. next chat day is tuesday!
I forwarded the whole /chat to the wiki so we have one place to edit.
Awesome new people! Welcome! Life does not have to end with babies. In fact they are immensely portable for quite a while. I'm a physics professor and have one child.
I think the only one of these I've seen is Juno. It was a good movie but I'm not sure it counts as my favorite if it's the only one I've seen?
zomg, this whole forum is worth it if we get more people exposed to SAVED!
I almost never had to deal with this. I was living in a remote area and not interacting much with others. Also, the culture here doesn't seem conducive of interacting with people by touching them.
One of my spouse's young nieces touched my belly and I didn't know how to tell her not to do it. She was immediately corrected by her mother about not touching people without permission.
Then my parents arrived. I mostly just dealt with their touch, but probably not with much class.
My occupation used to be "college student/bum" which made it an interesting answer to what I wanted to be when I grew up for sure. Glad to see I wasn't the only one. I changed it, but I already forget what to... probably that I still don't know.
Sometimes I try to see whether the film and the book each stand on their own. If they both do, I don't worry as much about which is better.
When I like the book more: usually it has to do with being so in love with the worldcraft and the descriptions of the book that the film can be entertaining and even moving but just doesn't have the form to develop those things I otherwise loved. See LOTR books (loooove) v. films (love). Sometimes the books are just better, usually because they're in the hands of an author much better than anything the film produced - see Fantastic Voyage by Isaac Asimov, or Dune compared even to David Lynch's version, or the ill-fated attempt to make an Earthsea miniseries.
When I like the film more: when there's something to the film that is brilliant and well-done in its own light. If I come away from the film really liking it, and think the book adds some things but isn't necessary, I like the film more. I'm thinking of Howl's Moving Castle as a good example, since I like the books but love even more its combination with Miyazaki's animation style and storytelling. This also goes for a lot of films that are novelized, like Star Wars. And sorry to the book The Princess Bride, but the film is the first to come to mind.
Monterey Bay Aquarium has some seafood recommendations, and they'll have information about mercury.
Herbal teas - what spacefem says about "weird" ones is true. There is one that can cause premature contractions, but it sure as hell isn't mint.
I think the rec was to very strongly avoid St Johns Wort, if I recall correctly. I'll go dig through the info I have from my doctor friends.
We've been decluttering / organising gradually for months now (and have got rid of lots of things! Lots have been recycled, or cleaned up and donated). I kind of like organising but only when there is enough space to actually put everything in. We've just moved house, so getting the volume of stuff to move down as low as possible for that was a big motivator. I read "The life-changing magic of tidying" by Marie Kondo a couple of months ago and rather liked it. She has a whole philosophy about tidying that I think makes a lot of sense (a practical approach which involves actually handling each item and seeing how you feel about it and saying goodbye gracefully to things).
I find it hardest to get rid of things I no longer want/need but that aren't in great condition - i.e. where I can see that there's still a lot of potential wear in them, but I don't think anyone would buy them from a charity shop. I really don't want to send things to landfill when they could still be used - but I can't keep all of them (current example: slightly stained but otherwise totally functional drawstring cotton laundry bag that I'm not super-fond of and don't need - bought in 2007 when I did need it for Uni ...).
really you guys? I unfriend all the time!
why mute someone? that means they're still going to be seeing your posts, commenting on your photos, getting to be "in" your life, and never know anything changed. what good is happening by keeping them around?
My former art teacher is quite conservative, but I still like his comments on my artwork.
I put people I think are otherwise perfectly delightful on mute because they flood facebook with useless crap. I don't want them to get the idea that I hate them, but I don't feel like seeing pages of what they have to say.
I think a lot of people have opinions I don't care for. Rather than offending someone I know and respect in person, I choose to just not see it. Facebook has a knack for showing sides of people I don't want to see, but it's just small sides of them. To me, it's not worth shutting out the person completely. After awhile, I occasionally take them off mute to see if they stopped with their nonsense.
Yooooooooooooooooo I keep forgetting to tell you I'm in LA until next Saturday and we should grab lunch if you're free!
Wait whaaaaaaaaaat, okay, I'm leaving town tomorrow for Thanksgiving but I'm going to move this discussion to Facebook.
And MFS, of course you should be scared. BAHAHAHAHA