Abortion laws in the US

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Enigma
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Abortion laws in the US

Post by Enigma » Wed May 15, 21:06 2019

Anyone one else watching this trend in absolute horror? I'm not even in the country and I'm freaking out.
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Re: Abortion laws in the US

Post by Endymion » Thu May 16, 9:36 2019

Enigma, I have been watching this trend in a general way, but your post encouraged me to look deeper into it. You probably know I like statistics. Since 1970 Republicans have held a majority on the US Supreme Court except for the short time in 2016 when it was even. This included 1973 when Roe v Wade was decided. Four Republicans and three Democrats overturned the law that led to the case, while one Republicans and one Democrat dissented from that decision. In the early 1980s, while there were eight justices nominated by Republican Presidents, the court ruled 5 to 4 to uphold the Roe v Wade decision. Currently there are five Republicans and four Democrats on the court, but history shows that a majority of Republicans does not mean that the ruling will be overturn. My guess and of course I could be wrong is that Justice Roberts will not vote to overturn Roe v Wade. However, even if it is overturn, it will not mean that abortions will be illegal in the US, as it would then be left up to the states and it seems to me that the majority of US citizens would still live in a state where abortion is legal.

According to Pew Polling, see here: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2 ... oe-v-wade/, 69% of those polled do not want Roe v Wade overturned compared to 28% who do. Also, 72% of women compared to 67% of men oppose overturning it, and 73% of those aged 18 to 49 oppose that while 64% of those over 50 oppose it. Even 53% of Republicans or those who lean Republican oppose overturning Roe v Wade. While the Supreme Court does not have to go by public opinion, it seems the overturning of that ruling will hurt Republicans in the next Presidential election, as well as in the Senate and in State governments.

Tom,
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Re: Abortion laws in the US

Post by octarineoboe » Thu May 16, 18:04 2019

Watching in horror doesn't begin to describe it, honestly. I live in Ohio and I'm kind of terrified. Alabama and Georgia have been getting all the press this week - for good reason - but OH just passed a heartbeat bill. I am pretty sure I will not personally become pregnant anytime soon, but...pretty sure isn't certain, and I have a lot of friends right now who are starting to have kids, and I worry about what will happen if something goes wrong with a wanted pregnancy for one of them.

Endymion, you're a lot more optimistic about Justice Roberts than I am. And they can chip away at abortion rights pretty far without overturning Roe, anyway. But the other thing you're missing is that the public opinion here doesn't matter in the slightest. Republicans have been quite successfully playing a long game of voter suppression and gerrymandering and court appointments - let us not forget that they REFUSED TO VOTE on Merrick Garland's nomination, that is a STOLEN SEAT - so that they can enact unpopular policies with little electoral consequence. And while I don't know exactly how the population numbers work out, it does not comfort me for a "majority" of the population to live in states where abortion remains legal. First, we have no guarantee of those states staying that way if Roe is overturned. Second, we DO know about the opposite direction: many states have laws designed to make abortion illegal immediately if Roe is overturned. Third, I'm not willing to condemn women (and other people who can become pregnant) to lack of basic health care and human rights based on where they live.

Also, besides being scared on a really personal level, I'm FURIOUS. I'm so angry that the GOP strategy has worked and I'm angry that we have such shitty sex ed in large parts of this country that the legislators who are writing these laws don't understand the science of pregnancy and abortion and I'm angry that Hillary won the popular vote by THREE MILLION VOTES and yet here we are. But I feel helpless, too. I don't know what to do with all of that anger, because everything I've tried to do so far feels so ineffective.

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Re: Abortion laws in the US

Post by Sonic# » Thu May 16, 18:34 2019

I'm watching, talking to people I know, and considering actions like volunteering for 2020 campaigns. I'm in Georgia, and I'm deeply enraged. It pisses me off that the legislators and even much of the reporting misunderstands or ignores women's bodies and women's experiences, I'm pissed at the hypocrisy of focusing on abortion while disregarding the children's insurance gap, education equity, and other concerns, and ... yeah, octarineoboe, I feel helpless too, though I'm starting small, reading up, and trying to make ally a verb.
Endymion wrote:Currently there are five Republicans and four Democrats on the court, but history shows that a majority of Republicans does not mean that the ruling will be overturn.
I appreciate the breakdown here, but that's not something I put much faith in. Before the mid-1980s, the Republicans was not concerned with vetting each nominee for their position on abortion. Since then, they have. These litmus tests, combined with the obstructionist tactics that led to Neil Gorsuch's nomination and the disregard for sexual assault allegations surrounding Brett Kavanaugh, suggest a majority that are inclined to overturn Roe v. Wade if they can find a rationale for it and if the case comes before the bench. I agree that there's a chance that John Roberts might rule otherwise, but there have already been several recent cases that have essentially favored Republicans.

That's the endgame for the state Republican legislatures passing these draconian laws. They want to make a law that is so brazenly unconstitutional but that nevertheless makes it before the Supreme Court and they either remove Roe v. Wade or add qualifications that make it harder to access abortions and healthcare.

And as much as it might hurt Republicans politically if Roe v. Wade were overturned, I don't like staking the health and autonomy of women on potential and hypothetical political points. Also, it's hard to gauge blowback. A vast majority of people support DACA, but because of partisan bullshit and gerrymandering (and a president hostile to immigrants) a DACA law hasn't been passed.

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Re: Abortion laws in the US

Post by Endymion » Fri May 17, 7:21 2019

As I wrote in the above comment and as I have indicated elsewhere I could be wrong in any analyze and that it is important for viewers to read more than one opinion. It is also the case that Republicans can gain power even when Democrats have greater public support, but that can only go so far. Democratic support, particularly among young people, has been growing and it seems to me it will continue to grow if the Republican Party does not change in a significant way. I do agree that the Supreme Court might reinterpret the restrictions that Roe v Wade places on the states, but that is not overturning the ruling. Also I do believe it is important to work to try and support people that one is favorable toward and I have done this both in regard to my time and in regard to donations.

Tom,
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