False Accusations

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melsbells
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False Accusations

Post by melsbells » Sat Nov 17, 14:54 2018

I decided to look into what I thought I knew about the rate of false rape accusations. The Internet is full of the kind of people who make all sorts of claims like 98%. I generally stand by a range like the studies that have shown 2-10% and believe the 8% from FBI statistics with the understanding that this is about the same as the rate of false accusations of all other crimes. The highest rate of false rape accusations I could find was 41% from a small NIH study published in 1994 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8135653 I also came across the number of 40% determined by Brent Turvey in a study he did with two co-writers. I could find the book for sale, but no excerpts from the book or references to the study they did. This larger study published in 2017 https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... _2006-2010 says that
Approximately 5% of the allegations of rape were deemed false or baseless. That was at least five times higher than for most other offence types.
I found a study about false rape claims within the U.S. military, which equated every case thrown out as a false accusation, but now I can't seem to find that now.

I found an article published in 2017 breaks down who makes false rape accusations https://qz.com/980766/the-truth-about-f ... cusations/ The author cites a 2-10% false accusation rate. The author also cites a huge Home Office Research Study that classified 16% of claims to be false.
out of 216 complaints that were classified as false, only 126 had even gotten to the stage where the accuser lodged a formal complaint. Only 39 complainants named a suspect. Only six cases led to an arrest, and only two led to charges being brought before they were ultimately deemed false.
I don't know what to say about the disparity in these numbers. It would be nice to see where the Brent Turvey number is coming from. For now, I'll probably stick by the FBI stats since it encompasses such a large population.

So we can agree that false accusations are terrible and that they negatively affect those falsely accused, even if the case get's thrown out before trial. But we see that most false accusations don't even name a perpetrator. This leads me to believe that as terrible as it is for a person wrongly accused, the people false rape accusations are hurting most are the people with real rape accusations to file.

EDIT: I was attempting to find a sort of worse case scenario, what are considered the worse numbers out there that still might have credibility.

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Re: False Accusations

Post by Skeezy » Mon Nov 19, 12:48 2018

Ok I'll bite lol.

Looked at a few links but your about to see why I dont like using statistics as they are usually someones rough estimate skewed to narrow down something into a number that doesnt really mean anything. Certain statistics are accurate but with things like rape statistics data is so inconclusive I could poke holes in the stats all day.

I tried to find the report from the feds that was initially used. If you find it you'd notice the stats were gained from 3 courthouses with most of the cases reviewed from one courthouse. Thats like my flaw #1 with the 2-8%. Its basically the limited range of sample base then everything was made into estimates which even in the report says vary. Whats more, that limited sample is supposed to reflect all cases in all courthouses in all areas across the country.

Heres a link further destroying the stats and showing ways to manipulate one way or another. Its a pretty long read but its basically breaking down the stat to be useless.
http://www.datagoneodd.com/blog/2015/01 ... cs-part-1/


Basically any statistic on this you find is either going to be from the feds report or some estimate somebody made up using limited rescources.

Im just stating false reports happen regularly. Regular enough to be considered a problem and feminism should take note but it flat out does not want to even acknowledge that it is an issue.

Dude does a good job breaking down that even if it was only 8% just how many cases that would be. Its all him though... You know I dont believe in hardly anyones statistics unless they are totally accurate like farm statistics lol

Truth is I cant even find a good statistical chart of people exonerated because of DNA. However I did find this.

https://progressive.org/dispatches/five ... nerations/

Which does support feminism but take a look at the comment under it. All in all its its still using the fed data. Matter of fact almost everything ypur going to find to use is going to be off that same limited fed sample.

There hasnt been conclusive research done to give an actual whole view of the issue. Of course many men's rights groups blame feminism for trying to block said research *shrugs* I doubt thats true, but fact remains you cant tell me whats what off that fed sample. I mean I dont trust feds anyway.

This is just one issue where feminism attempts to flat out dismiss mens concerns when men have a legitimate safety complaint which seems to be a trend of feminisms gender bias. I understand a lot of what feminism has to battle is reactionary slander but some of it is legimate concerns and if feminism chooses to ignore these issues and try to skate by them instead of attmpting to actually address male concerns its going to be a long hard road

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Re: False Accusations

Post by Sonic# » Mon Nov 19, 14:15 2018

mels, those are some good sources. The 2017 article made me think of two points.

First, if we're studying using FBI crime data, then we're studying "unfounded accusations," which could be either "false" or "baseless." Any estimate of confirmed false allegations based on federal data will therefore (other things being equal) skew higher than what's actually true, since it cannot reliably differentiate between the lack of evidence or basis for a crime and the falsification of an allegation. A rate of 5% for unfounded allegations should be improved, but it's not a dire issue - if the controversy about false allegations were purely about false allegations, then the equivalent rate of unfounded allegations for burglary would lead to a cultural discourse that promotes accused burglars' interests over those who have been stolen from.

Beyond that, it's important to understand what the statistics aren't saying. They aren't saying that 90-98% of rapes are successfully prosecuted (since not all rapes are processed as crimes). Nor is it saying that 90-98% of rape allegations are successfully prosecuted. There's a ton of space between a law enforcement agency labeling something "unfounded" and successfully investigating and prosecuting a case. Examining that gap would give a better idea of the rate of prosecution and, importantly, the possible number of innocent people going to prison in that number.

I tried to research how big the gaps here might be. We know reporting rape is relatively rare compared to other crimes because of the fears of trauma and public attention. Kathleen Daly and Brigitte Bouhours's article Rape and Attrition in the Legal Process: A Comparative Analysis of Five Countries (2010) reports that a victim reports the case to police 14% of the time, the case proceeds past the police 30% of the time, that case proceeds past prosecution to the court 66% of the time, that case is proved in court 62% of the time, and that case involves sentencing to detention 57% of the time. The end result is like flipping a coin four times and expecting heads every time: for the 14% of cases reported, they are proved and sentenced 12.5% of the time. Even allowing for the potential inexactness of these figures, the ~2% of rape cases coming to prosecution feels like a far smaller figure than the 98% of cases where nothing ever happens to a rapist. Once we start logging false accusations successfully prosecuted and then overturned as a (smaller than one-in-five and probably far smaller if the National Registry of Exonerations figure in mels's qz source is to be trusted) percentage of that ~2%, suddenly we're talking maybe 1 people to 20 people imprisoned and exonerated compared to 100 accurately prosecuted cases and 10,000 total instances of rape.

So, yes, false accusations should definitely be taken seriously, but if you're going to ask me whether rape or false accusations hurt more people, it's rape by an order of magnitude of one thousand to ten thousand.

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Re: False Accusations

Post by Skeezy » Mon Nov 19, 18:12 2018

One thousand to ten thousand effects millions of families. I view that one part,

"if you're going to ask me whether rape or false accusations hurt more people, it's rape by an order of magnitude of one thousand to ten thousand."


Granted its like saying catching murders outweighs catching the right murderers, as long as we get it mostly right. Out of 10,000 a thousand are expendable. I wonder which group of people wil make up most of those thousand? Even in oone of the demographics meis bells one of the main reasons "women" yell rape is race. Again its known they can get away with it. And thats one of the main reasons why black men must be cautious of white women especially if successful. How many black nba players? Or sports in general, or just famous or rappers are accused of raping white women specifically? I bet its some of your favorites. Happens so often its bound to be. No need to look it up just ponder in your mind how often you think this happens.

It can happen at anytime because its a priviledge. A white woman can wake up today. See a black man on tv, find him, meet him entice him and regardless of what transpires, if she files charges his name will forever be slandered, if his career doesnt end right there. He will lose endorsements, money, it can get way way worse. If it goes to court and the guy isnt just forced to pay out a settlement, then if she's found to be lying she gets what punishment? I know she wont have to pay back the money. 90 days to 6 months if she doesnt get just probation or time served.

You dont see that as overwhelming power?


People will do anything for money. Not saying some of those cases aren't legit. Im just saying people do shitty things. Most of these get settled by the way. So they wouldnt make it into your 2-8% 100% false accusations or 10% or whatever.

Numbers starting to look a bit bigger for some.

When you leave a glaring window for people to take advantage of they will continue to do so. Why not shut it while your at it ? If your intentions are true... No, your intentions are very 1 sided, thus I doubt your view equality is pure or, should I say, with no bad intentions towards me.

So while you (directed at feminism not you specifically) deserve justice you have no intention of filling up a glaring loophole that benefits you in very bad way. Can't really blame ya.

As stated your statostics are shot with me. I dont even acknowledge statisics anymore as everyone slings statistical b.s. They can be used as a rough guide and not much else unless a study is done which covers all bases, which is rare to say the least.

For me the threat of being accused of false rape is one of thousands and hardly applicable. However, if I were single and successful the larger the threat becomes especially if I sleep around. Its an actual concern. We know successful men tend tosleep around and many of them aquire rape charges because their men right?

You dont have to be successful either. You dont even have to date white women to have one try to bait you into sleeping with her?. (Long story or several long stories but I mean with ill intent so I have like 2 lol)

But no womjen dont use sex to set men up. Nahhh. No man has ever been killed behind sex right. Or had his whole life raped. Never happens. Feminism doesn't give the bad eggs enough credit. A woman would never intentionally sleep with someone to say he raped her later. No! People are above that....we as human beings, are above..that!. Im so glad we got here. We made it!


Theres all sorts of reasons for people to be petty apparently.

Its like I'm sin city and talking to pleasantville. Do women do no wrong here?

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Re: False Accusations

Post by Sonic# » Mon Nov 19, 21:21 2018

I'm pretty tired of this, which is why I didn't engage you before, Skeezy. I'll make one comment to point out why.
People will do anything for money. Not saying some of those cases aren't legit. Im just saying people do shitty things. Most of these get settled by the way. So they wouldnt make it into your 2-8% 100% false accusations or 10% or whatever.
You made that up, like you've made everything else up. It's not even true. The statistics I just cited show that most of these cases do not get settled - they don't even get *that far* because cases only get past the police 30% of the time. And of course settlements wouldn't make it in as a false accusation, because the accusation isn't shown to be false in that case. You've got to assume a lot to assume that a lot of settlements occur after false accusations, like assuming that the rate of false accusations is high in the first place or assuming that a lot of cases get to the point of settlement, and surely someone taught you that when you assume you make an ass out of you and me.
I dont even acknowledge statisics anymore as everyone slings statistical b.s.
This is why it's no use engaging you further, because all you're doing is denying the validity of all statistics and then assuming your own hot-takes on the situation. If you were to just admit you can't know anything here, that'd be one thing, but instead you're denying all the facts inconvenient to your case and then making up facts convenient to your case. Suddenly you're gendering rape as if it only happens to women and only men are falsely accused, alleging that false accusations are an epidemic instead of an occasional problem, and you're putting words in our mouths by suggesting we deny that false accusations ever happen. Your last line is bullshit: of course false accusations happen, as I acknowledged in my last post and mels acknowledged in hers - they happen with rape and burglary at about the same rate. Sure, I'm happy to discuss that as a criminal justice reform issue. What I deny - what abundant evidence doesn't show - is that false accusations are such a big problem that they should take attention away from rape and sexual assault.

tl;dr. You've made up this problem of false accusations being far bigger than it actually is, you made up this fake idea that feminists aren't concerned at all about them, and you use these two bad takes to drown out anyone else.

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Re: False Accusations

Post by melsbells » Tue Nov 20, 2:25 2018

Instead of picking back against the things I disagree with here, I want to support the points that I agree with, in hopes that they don't get lost in the other arguments. The most insidious thing about false accusations of all crimes, is that it disproportionately affects people along racial lines. The biggest disparities are found in cases of murder, sexual assault, and drug offenses. Moreover, in regards to the crime of sexual assault, we know that 57% of perpetrators are white (https://rainn.org/statistics/perpetrato ... l-violence) Here's a write up coming out of the University of California Irvine about the three: http://www.law.umich.edu/special/exoner ... ctions.pdf
I'm going to quote the entire sexual assault part of the summary.
• Judging from exonerations, a black prisoner serving time for sexual assault is three-and-a-half
times more likely to be innocent than a white sexual assault convict. The major
cause for this huge racial disparity appears to be the high danger of mistaken eyewitness
identification by white victims in violent crimes with black assailants.
• Assaults on white women by African-American men are a small minority of all sexual
assaults in the United States, but they constitute half of sexual assaults with eyewitness
misidentifications that led to exoneration. (The unreliability of cross-racial eyewitness
identification also appears to have contributed to racial disparities in false convictions for
other crimes, but to a lesser extent.)
• Eyewitness misidentifications do not completely explain the racial disparity in sexual
assault exonerations. Some misidentifications themselves are in part the products of racial
bias, and other convictions that led to sexual assault exonerations were marred by implicit
biases, racially tainted official misconduct and, in some cases, explicit racism.
• African-American sexual assault exonerees received much longer prison sentences
than white sexual assault exonerees, and they spent on average almost four-and-a-half years
longer in prison before exoneration. It appears that innocent black sexual assault defendants
receive harsher sentences than whites if they are convicted, and then face greater resistance
to exoneration even in cases in which they are ultimately released.

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Re: False Accusations

Post by Skeezy » Tue Nov 20, 9:14 2018

@sonic fair enough

1. You persiistent on using limited statisics as a rule rather than a loose estimate done of a limited amount of cases done in about 3 courthouses in a limited area. I know that because I read the pdf file of the federal report a few days ago. Almost all your statistics trickle down from that 1 study. You say Im making things up but your 2-8% or 10% is acknowledged so what am I making up. You down me for mentioning settlements (which I did purposely because they arent in your numbers) then go on to agree and say they arent included in your numbers. Then you make assumptions about me making assumtions. Isee what your saying but your weighing heavily on opinion and assumption yourself to try to dissmiss what Im saying. Instead of acknowldhing the 2-10% by your numbers you continually try to act like its not even there and I am making things up when I can actually pull up cases current and old that support what Im saying. I havent gone as far to list the punishments vs harm done but ypu havent really disputed that because you know I would be right

2. Im not saying its an epidemic, Im saying its a priviledge with no punishment that leaves plenty of opportunity for abuse and has been abused to a point beyond your statisics. Im saying I demand firm punishment for any guilty party that intends to ruin the life of another.

And actually thank you meisbells.
You got what I was saying. The racial imbalance of the justice system extends to almost every type of criminal case you can think of. The epicemic is, theres a large number of innocent men in jail for various crimes they did not commit including rape, murder, theft, burglary, etc. Not saying that most arent guilty, its just that people of color who are innocent have a hard time with the justice system.

A couple cases of false accusation are famous especially Emmit Till. He is not alone though. Not all cases like this are even recorded as false rape accusations. For every 1 case that makes media attention there are at least hundreds more that dont.
That includes people gun down by police, I wonder how many other black men were beaten, hung, mutilated behind false accusations. Im sure many of these never made it to court. This is a racial trend that hasnt gone anywhere because it was never stopped/punished. Im not saying this happens 10 times a day, Im saying it can happen at anytime for any reason and does.
Even though a few cases like this are famous, what happened to the person who falsely accused and caused great harm. Absolutely nothing.

One woman last year, accused 15 men of sexual assault of course police caught on eventually and she got 10 years as the judge said he would make an example out of her.. 10 years for effecting 15 different men and changing their lives forever with no restitution. Its unclear wether all these men have been released to date. apparently thats how hard someone has to go, to recieve any semi decent punishment. If she hadnt gone way to overboard who knows she might have even gotten away with it.

Not saying every case doesnt hand out punishment but usually its very light compared to harm done. This is my problem @sonic . the woman who recieved 10 years is a rarity and its an extreme case.

Again Im feeling you have a lack of sympathy for innocent men doing time behind bars. 1000 for evey 10,000 so you claim. But theres not just 10,000 thousand cases . Just for example lets say theres 500,000 cases. Thats 50,000 possibly innocent men in jail just for rape not including other crimes. You can also easily reduce the number by actually punishing those that abuse the system. No where in our debate have you even come close to acknowledging that instead of trying to diminish a known problems validity. I saw your numbers ok, the problem is still there. I see you want prosecution ok, the problem is stil there. Maybe its not a problem for you, I dont see it that way. I see it as an actual danger men should be cautious of. Sex can easily be used as a trap or other circumstances may end in a fight for your freedom.
(edit: In life I had to be smart and pre-emtively cautious of actual dangers in order to survive and Im sure if I would have slept with one of my disgruntled white neighbors who approached me in no clothes and a robe because she wanted me to get put out of my residence, I would have had to quite possibly fight a rape charge due to the petty whims of a disgruntled white woman. You have stats and I have a ton of life experience in areas of danger, criminal activity and unfairness in the justice system. Your statistics do not show you what goes on in peoples lives and they will never come close. They will however give you a false sense of knowing the entirety of an issue and how often it occurs)

So again, we can't charge those who do falsely accuse because it would, in theory, possibly scare more victims from coming forward.... So on that theoretical fear, we leave a huge hole for shitty people to exploit and you are fine with that because the odds of that effecting your core group is nil. Yup, I think we are done here lol

Just wanted to say I dont hold any animosity from difference of opinion. Maybe we'll talk again when a better and broader study is done that more accurately depicts false assault/rape claims and how their overall lack of real punishment effects society and the justice system.

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Re: False Accusations

Post by melsbells » Fri Nov 30, 14:26 2018

Skeezy wrote:
Tue Nov 20, 9:14 2018
1000 for evey 10,000 so you claim.
You misunderstood what Sonic said there.
Sonic# wrote:
Mon Nov 19, 14:15 2018
1 people to 20 people imprisoned and exonerated compared to 100 accurately prosecuted cases and 10,000 total instances of rape.

So, yes, false accusations should definitely be taken seriously, but if you're going to ask me whether rape or false accusations hurt more people, it's rape by an order of magnitude of one thousand to ten thousand.
That's saying that there's 1000-10000 instances of rape for every 1 false accusation.

Skeezy wrote:
Tue Nov 20, 9:14 2018
we can't charge those who do falsely accuse because it would, in theory, possibly scare more victims from coming forward
No one said that. False accusations are and should be prosecuted. What we shouldn't do is inflate the frequency of false accusations. We shouldn't assume anyone who comes forward to report a rape is lying.

We can stop scapegoating black men in the criminal justice system at the same time we prosecute rapes. Those aren't conflicting goals. Sonic's defense of victims of rape was not an indication that he doesn't care about victims of false accusations.

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Re: False Accusations

Post by Skeezy » Sun Dec 9, 12:50 2018

Perhaps I did misunderstand the 1000-10,000 and got a little over zealous

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