This table attempts to estimate your probability of going into labor on different individual days based on your estimated due date. If you don't know your due date, or just want a handy daily page to tell you where you're at, use the pregnancy calendar.
It's based on the idea that the average pregnancy lasts 40 weeks with a standard deviation of about 10 days. This means you're more likely to go into labor on one of the days close to your due date. For instance, about half of all babies are born within a week of their date. Scroll to the bottom of this page if you want to know more about where I got these numbers.
The following dates are based on an estimated due date of September 21st, 2019.
| Date | Progress | Overall probability of spontaneous labor |
Current probability of spontaneous labor |
probability of a pregnant woman at this stage going into labor | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| On this date | By this date | On this date | By this date | On this date | Within 3 days | Within 5 days | Within 7 days | ||
| Saturday August 17th, 2019 | 35W, 0D | 0.01% | 0.02% | -% | -% | -% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Sunday August 18th, 2019 | 35W, 1D | 0.01% | 0.03% | -% | -% | -% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Monday August 19th, 2019 | 35W, 2D | 0.02% | 0.05% | -% | -% | -% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Tuesday August 20th, 2019 | 35W, 3D | 0.02% | 0.07% | -% | -% | -% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| Wednesday August 21st, 2019 | 35W, 4D | 0.03% | 0.1% | -% | -% | -% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| Thursday August 22nd, 2019 | 35W, 5D | 0.04% | 0.13% | -% | -% | -% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% |
| Friday August 23rd, 2019 | 35W, 6D | 0.06% | 0.19% | -% | -% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.2% |
| Saturday August 24th, 2019 | 36W, 0D | 0.08% | 0.26% | -% | -% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% |
| Sunday August 25th, 2019 | 36W, 1D | 0.1% | 0.35% | -% | -% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1% | 1.9% |
| Monday August 26th, 2019 | 36W, 2D | 0.14% | 0.47% | -% | -% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.4% |
| Tuesday August 27th, 2019 | 36W, 3D | 0.18% | 0.62% | -% | -% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 3% |
| Wednesday August 28th, 2019 | 36W, 4D | 0.22% | 0.82% | -% | -% | 0.2% | 1% | 2.1% | 3.7% |
| Thursday August 29th, 2019 | 36W, 5D | 0.28% | 1.07% | -% | -% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 4.5% |
| Friday August 30th, 2019 | 36W, 6D | 0.35% | 1.39% | -% | -% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 5.4% |
| Saturday August 31st, 2019 | 37W, 0D | 0.44% | 1.79% | -% | -% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 6.4% |
| Sunday September 1st, 2019 | 37W, 1D | 0.54% | 2.28% | -% | -% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 4.5% | 7.6% |
| Monday September 2nd, 2019 | 37W, 2D | 0.66% | 2.87% | -% | -% | 0.7% | 2.7% | 5.4% | 8.9% |
| Tuesday September 3rd, 2019 | 37W, 3D | 0.79% | 3.59% | -% | -% | 0.8% | 3.2% | 6.3% | 10.4% |
| Wednesday September 4th, 2019 | 37W, 4D | 0.94% | 4.46% | -% | -% | 1% | 3.8% | 7.4% | 11.9% |
| Thursday September 5th, 2019 | 37W, 5D | 1.11% | 5.48% | -% | -% | 1.2% | 4.4% | 8.6% | 13.7% |
| Friday September 6th, 2019 | 37W, 6D | 1.3% | 6.68% | -% | -% | 1.4% | 5.2% | 9.8% | 15.5% |
| Saturday September 7th, 2019 | 38W, 0D | 1.5% | 8.08% | -% | -% | 1.6% | 6% | 11.2% | 17.5% |
| Sunday September 8th, 2019 | 38W, 1D | 1.71% | 9.68% | -% | -% | 1.9% | 6.9% | 12.7% | 19.7% |
| Monday September 9th, 2019 | 38W, 2D | 1.94% | 11.51% | -% | -% | 2.2% | 7.8% | 14.3% | 21.9% |
| Tuesday September 10th, 2019 | 38W, 3D | 2.18% | 13.57% | -% | -% | 2.5% | 8.8% | 16% | 24.2% |
| Wednesday September 11th, 2019 | 38W, 4D | 2.42% | 15.87% | -% | -% | 2.9% | 9.9% | 17.8% | 26.6% |
| Thursday September 12th, 2019 | 38W, 5D | 2.66% | 18.41% | -% | -% | 3.3% | 11.1% | 19.7% | 29% |
| Friday September 13th, 2019 | 38W, 6D | 2.9% | 21.19% | -% | -% | 3.7% | 12.3% | 21.6% | 31.5% |
| Saturday September 14th, 2019 | 39W, 0D | 3.12% | 24.2% | -% | -% | 4.1% | 13.5% | 23.6% | 34% |
| Sunday September 15th, 2019 | 39W, 1D | 3.33% | 27.43% | -% | -% | 4.6% | 14.9% | 25.6% | 36.6% |
| Monday September 16th, 2019 | 39W, 2D | 3.52% | 30.85% | -% | -% | 5.1% | 16.2% | 27.7% | 39.2% |
| Tuesday September 17th, 2019 | 39W, 3D | 3.68% | 34.46% | -% | -% | 5.6% | 17.6% | 29.8% | 41.7% |
| Wednesday September 18th, 2019 | 39W, 4D | 3.81% | 38.21% | -% | -% | 6.2% | 19.1% | 31.9% | 44.2% |
| Thursday September 19th, 2019 | 39W, 5D | 3.91% | 42.07% | -% | -% | 6.7% | 20.6% | 34% | 46.7% |
| Friday September 20th, 2019 | 39W, 6D | 3.97% | 46.02% | -% | -% | 7.4% | 22.1% | 36.2% | 49.2% |
| Saturday September 21st, 2019 | 40W, 0D | 3.99% | 50% | 8% | 0% | 8% | 23.6% | 38.3% | 51.6% |
| Sunday September 22nd, 2019 | 40W, 1D | 3.97% | 53.98% | 7.9% | 8% | 8.6% | 25.1% | 40.4% | 54% |
| Monday September 23rd, 2019 | 40W, 2D | 3.91% | 57.93% | 7.8% | 15.9% | 9.3% | 26.7% | 42.5% | 56.2% |
| Tuesday September 24th, 2019 | 40W, 3D | 3.81% | 61.79% | 7.6% | 23.6% | 10% | 28.2% | 44.5% | 58.5% |
| Wednesday September 25th, 2019 | 40W, 4D | 3.68% | 65.54% | 7.4% | 31.1% | 10.7% | 29.8% | 46.6% | 60.6% |
| Thursday September 26th, 2019 | 40W, 5D | 3.52% | 69.15% | 7% | 38.3% | 11.4% | 31.3% | 48.6% | 62.7% |
| Friday September 27th, 2019 | 40W, 6D | 3.33% | 72.57% | 6.7% | 45.1% | 12.1% | 32.9% | 50.5% | 64.7% |
| Saturday September 28th, 2019 | 41W, 0D | 3.12% | 75.8% | 6.2% | 51.6% | 12.9% | 34.4% | 52.4% | 66.6% |
| Sunday September 29th, 2019 | 41W, 1D | 2.9% | 78.81% | 5.8% | 57.6% | 13.7% | 36% | 54.3% | 68.5% |
| Monday September 30th, 2019 | 41W, 2D | 2.66% | 81.59% | 5.3% | 63.2% | 14.4% | 37.5% | 56.1% | 70.2% |
| Tuesday October 1st, 2019 | 41W, 3D | 2.42% | 84.13% | 4.8% | 68.3% | 15.2% | 39% | 57.9% | 71.9% |
| Wednesday October 2nd, 2019 | 41W, 4D | 2.18% | 86.43% | 4.4% | 72.9% | 16.1% | 40.5% | 59.6% | 73.5% |
| Thursday October 3rd, 2019 | 41W, 5D | 1.94% | 88.49% | 3.9% | 77% | 16.9% | 42% | 61.3% | 75.1% |
| Friday October 4th, 2019 | 41W, 6D | 1.71% | 90.32% | 3.4% | 80.6% | 17.7% | 43.4% | 62.9% | 76.4% |
| Saturday October 5th, 2019 | 42W, 0D | 1.5% | 91.92% | 3% | 83.8% | 18.6% | 44.8% | 64.5% | 77.8% |
| Sunday October 6th, 2019 | 42W, 1D | 1.3% | 93.32% | 2.6% | 86.6% | 19.5% | 46.3% | 65.9% | 79.2% |
| Monday October 7th, 2019 | 42W, 2D | 1.11% | 94.52% | 2.2% | 89% | 20.3% | 47.6% | 67.3% | 80.5% |
| Tuesday October 8th, 2019 | 42W, 3D | 0.94% | 95.54% | 1.9% | 91.1% | 21.1% | 48.9% | 68.8% | 81.6% |
| Wednesday October 9th, 2019 | 42W, 4D | 0.79% | 96.41% | 1.6% | 92.8% | 22% | 50.1% | 70.2% | 82.7% |
| Thursday October 10th, 2019 | 42W, 5D | 0.66% | 97.13% | 1.3% | 94.3% | 23% | 51.6% | 71.4% | 83.6% |
| Friday October 11th, 2019 | 42W, 6D | 0.54% | 97.72% | 1.1% | 95.4% | 23.7% | 53.1% | 72.8% | 84.6% |
| Saturday October 12th, 2019 | 43W, 0D | 0.44% | 98.21% | 0.9% | 96.4% | 24.6% | 54.2% | 73.7% | 85.5% |
| Sunday October 13th, 2019 | 43W, 1D | 0.35% | 98.61% | 0.7% | 97.2% | 25.2% | 55.4% | 74.8% | 86.3% |
| Monday October 14th, 2019 | 43W, 2D | 0.28% | 98.93% | 0.6% | 97.9% | 26.2% | 56.1% | 75.7% | 87.9% |
| Tuesday October 15th, 2019 | 43W, 3D | 0.22% | 99.18% | 0.4% | 98.4% | 26.8% | 57.3% | 76.8% | -% |
| Wednesday October 16th, 2019 | 43W, 4D | 0.18% | 99.38% | 0.4% | 98.8% | 29% | 58.1% | 79% | -% |
| Thursday October 17th, 2019 | 43W, 5D | 0.14% | 99.53% | 0.3% | 99.1% | 29.8% | 59.6% | -% | -% |
| Friday October 18th, 2019 | 43W, 6D | 0.1% | 99.65% | 0.2% | 99.3% | 28.6% | 62.9% | -% | -% |
| Saturday October 19th, 2019 | 44W, 0D | 0.08% | 99.74% | 0.2% | 99.5% | 30.8% | -% | -% | -% |
| Sunday October 20th, 2019 | 44W, 1D | 0.06% | 99.81% | 0.1% | 99.6% | 31.6% | -% | -% | -% |
| Monday October 21st, 2019 | 44W, 2D | 0.04% | 99.87% | 0.1% | 99.7% | 30.8% | -% | -% | -% |
All percentages are estimates based on mathematical averages and should not be taken terribly seriously... just because you only have 5% chance of going into labor two weeks early, that doesn't mean you should schedule a trip to the bahamas that weekend (see xkcd to get what I mean here).
You should (obviously) listen to your doctor or midwife on all matters related to pregnancy and childbirth. Just because this chart tells you that a 42W pregnant woman has a high chance of delivering in the next seven days, it doesn't mean it's healthy for her to be pregnant for seven more days. If your doctor wants to increase probability of delivery by inducing labor, there's probably a good reason.
Finding good distribution statistics on spontaneous labor is interesting. I have not found a study with an exact daily breakdown of when babies are born. However I have read way too much on this topic, so I can tell you that my favorite published research is The length of human pregnancy as calculated by ultrasonographic measurement of the fetal biparietal diameter (H. Kieler, O. Axelsson, S. Nilsson, U. Waldenströ) which a very nice table of 10 published studies, which found various means between 272-283 days. The study contributes their own results as well, analyzing nearly 2000 mothers who went into labor spontaneously, and there's graphs of what they found. They found a mean around 280 days, and standard deviations between 8-11 days. There's a big list of other studies and answers in the Introduction to my due date survey results.
Which leads to this topic... I am also in the process of collecting my own statistics. If you have had a baby, please take my due date survey. Oddly enough, the numbers I've collected so far support my messy hunch that pregnancy length has a 40-week mean and 9-10 day standard deviation. So go me.
Anyway if you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).
Charts are generated by flot.
My father-in-law spends a lot of time with the kid, mostly by choice. I sometimes wish we had more of a schedule, because at the moment, naps and bedtime are the only semi-guaranteed breaks for anyone. My spouse and father-in-law both work from home free-lance, so they don't actually have a schedule for when they need to be left alone, but at least my father-in-law has more warning with jobs scheduled out in advance.
I'm sorry for your loss. Ectopic pregnancies are scary, and I would like to go punch that first doctor in the face for you.
PPD is awful too.
When I worked in a biligual Kita, the kids picked up loads from simply being read to and pointing out the different things. Sometimes a question came up ("that is a pferd", "it's called horse in English", "ok horse") and it's good to know both languages to understand what the kid is saying, but reading is a good together activity
I would say its very important, because what you learn shapes and molds yours views that make you who you are.
Aum, my partner and I were just discussing this. He was surprised by my taking the hard line that stopping BC or poking holes in condoms or something like that is rape, making the woman a rapist. Which should result in jail time, so she should lose custody, which should go to the father and now he has the choice of keeping the baby or putting them up for adoption.
It's unfortunate that you can't prove such a thing, but hopefully if it was actually taken seriously women would be less likely to do it because it would at least be explicitly called rape.
I understand how the justice system and the family courts would look at it. They see it as the man's sperm made it to the egg so somehow he wasn't protecting himself, he made the choice, yada yada. There's no way to prove that the woman was manipulative, withdrew BC, or "poked holes in the condom" (I think that's unheard of, but anyway).
no
I topped baby off tonight. He straight up drank 7 ounces of formula after his prunes. If he's an infiltrator, he's eating well for it.
I am still dealing with the fact that your 11 year old is an actual 11 year old.
If a boy who has a penis asks if he's a boy and you don't just say yes, then that's straight up lunacy.
What he decides to do with that boyhood or how he dresses is up to him. But if you're born with a penis you're a boy.
Making it airy fairy when, statistically, scientifically, less than 1% of 1% of children born have true gender dysphoria, is immoral and wrong. It's also a sign of our troubled times.
This is just my anecdotal experience but...
I have experienced bullying based on simply engaging in normal children's play with girls. Insults were attacks on both me and the girls. But I NEVER questioned my gender as a male. So if a child asks me if he's a boy and was identified biologically as one, I am going to question what influences are on the child before I answer.