This table attempts to estimate your probability of going into labor on different individual days based on your estimated due date. If you don't know your due date, or just want a handy daily page to tell you where you're at, use the pregnancy calendar.
It's based on the idea that the average pregnancy lasts 40 weeks with a standard deviation of about 10 days. This means you're more likely to go into labor on one of the days close to your due date. For instance, about half of all babies are born within a week of their date. Scroll to the bottom of this page if you want to know more about where I got these numbers.
The following dates are based on an estimated due date of October 27th, 2016.
| Date | Progress | Overall probability of spontaneous labor |
Current probability of spontaneous labor |
probability of a pregnant woman at this stage going into labor | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| On this date | By this date | On this date | By this date | On this date | Within 3 days | Within 5 days | Within 7 days | ||
| Thursday September 22nd, 2016 | 35W, 0D | 0.01% | 0.02% | -% | -% | -% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Friday September 23rd, 2016 | 35W, 1D | 0.01% | 0.03% | -% | -% | -% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Saturday September 24th, 2016 | 35W, 2D | 0.02% | 0.05% | -% | -% | -% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Sunday September 25th, 2016 | 35W, 3D | 0.02% | 0.07% | -% | -% | -% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| Monday September 26th, 2016 | 35W, 4D | 0.03% | 0.1% | -% | -% | -% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| Tuesday September 27th, 2016 | 35W, 5D | 0.04% | 0.13% | -% | -% | -% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% |
| Wednesday September 28th, 2016 | 35W, 6D | 0.06% | 0.19% | -% | -% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.2% |
| Thursday September 29th, 2016 | 36W, 0D | 0.08% | 0.26% | -% | -% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% |
| Friday September 30th, 2016 | 36W, 1D | 0.1% | 0.35% | -% | -% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1% | 1.9% |
| Saturday October 1st, 2016 | 36W, 2D | 0.14% | 0.47% | -% | -% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.4% |
| Sunday October 2nd, 2016 | 36W, 3D | 0.18% | 0.62% | -% | -% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 3% |
| Monday October 3rd, 2016 | 36W, 4D | 0.22% | 0.82% | -% | -% | 0.2% | 1% | 2.1% | 3.7% |
| Tuesday October 4th, 2016 | 36W, 5D | 0.28% | 1.07% | -% | -% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 4.5% |
| Wednesday October 5th, 2016 | 36W, 6D | 0.35% | 1.39% | -% | -% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 5.4% |
| Thursday October 6th, 2016 | 37W, 0D | 0.44% | 1.79% | -% | -% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 6.4% |
| Friday October 7th, 2016 | 37W, 1D | 0.54% | 2.28% | -% | -% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 4.5% | 7.6% |
| Saturday October 8th, 2016 | 37W, 2D | 0.66% | 2.87% | -% | -% | 0.7% | 2.7% | 5.4% | 8.9% |
| Sunday October 9th, 2016 | 37W, 3D | 0.79% | 3.59% | -% | -% | 0.8% | 3.2% | 6.3% | 10.4% |
| Monday October 10th, 2016 | 37W, 4D | 0.94% | 4.46% | -% | -% | 1% | 3.8% | 7.4% | 11.9% |
| Tuesday October 11th, 2016 | 37W, 5D | 1.11% | 5.48% | -% | -% | 1.2% | 4.4% | 8.6% | 13.7% |
| Wednesday October 12th, 2016 | 37W, 6D | 1.3% | 6.68% | -% | -% | 1.4% | 5.2% | 9.8% | 15.5% |
| Thursday October 13th, 2016 | 38W, 0D | 1.5% | 8.08% | -% | -% | 1.6% | 6% | 11.2% | 17.5% |
| Friday October 14th, 2016 | 38W, 1D | 1.71% | 9.68% | -% | -% | 1.9% | 6.9% | 12.7% | 19.7% |
| Saturday October 15th, 2016 | 38W, 2D | 1.94% | 11.51% | -% | -% | 2.2% | 7.8% | 14.3% | 21.9% |
| Sunday October 16th, 2016 | 38W, 3D | 2.18% | 13.57% | -% | -% | 2.5% | 8.8% | 16% | 24.2% |
| Monday October 17th, 2016 | 38W, 4D | 2.42% | 15.87% | -% | -% | 2.9% | 9.9% | 17.8% | 26.6% |
| Tuesday October 18th, 2016 | 38W, 5D | 2.66% | 18.41% | -% | -% | 3.3% | 11.1% | 19.7% | 29% |
| Wednesday October 19th, 2016 | 38W, 6D | 2.9% | 21.19% | -% | -% | 3.7% | 12.3% | 21.6% | 31.5% |
| Thursday October 20th, 2016 | 39W, 0D | 3.12% | 24.2% | -% | -% | 4.1% | 13.5% | 23.6% | 34% |
| Friday October 21st, 2016 | 39W, 1D | 3.33% | 27.43% | -% | -% | 4.6% | 14.9% | 25.6% | 36.6% |
| Saturday October 22nd, 2016 | 39W, 2D | 3.52% | 30.85% | -% | -% | 5.1% | 16.2% | 27.7% | 39.2% |
| Sunday October 23rd, 2016 | 39W, 3D | 3.68% | 34.46% | -% | -% | 5.6% | 17.6% | 29.8% | 41.7% |
| Monday October 24th, 2016 | 39W, 4D | 3.81% | 38.21% | -% | -% | 6.2% | 19.1% | 31.9% | 44.2% |
| Tuesday October 25th, 2016 | 39W, 5D | 3.91% | 42.07% | -% | -% | 6.7% | 20.6% | 34% | 46.7% |
| Wednesday October 26th, 2016 | 39W, 6D | 3.97% | 46.02% | -% | -% | 7.4% | 22.1% | 36.2% | 49.2% |
| Thursday October 27th, 2016 | 40W, 0D | 3.99% | 50% | -% | -% | 8% | 23.6% | 38.3% | 51.6% |
| Friday October 28th, 2016 | 40W, 1D | 3.97% | 53.98% | -% | -% | 8.6% | 25.1% | 40.4% | 54% |
| Saturday October 29th, 2016 | 40W, 2D | 3.91% | 57.93% | -% | -% | 9.3% | 26.7% | 42.5% | 56.2% |
| Sunday October 30th, 2016 | 40W, 3D | 3.81% | 61.79% | -% | -% | 10% | 28.2% | 44.5% | 58.5% |
| Monday October 31st, 2016 | 40W, 4D | 3.68% | 65.54% | -% | -% | 10.7% | 29.8% | 46.6% | 60.6% |
| Tuesday November 1st, 2016 | 40W, 5D | 3.52% | 69.15% | -% | -% | 11.4% | 31.3% | 48.6% | 62.7% |
| Wednesday November 2nd, 2016 | 40W, 6D | 3.33% | 72.57% | -% | -% | 12.1% | 32.9% | 50.5% | 64.7% |
| Thursday November 3rd, 2016 | 41W, 0D | 3.12% | 75.8% | -% | -% | 12.9% | 34.4% | 52.4% | 66.6% |
| Friday November 4th, 2016 | 41W, 1D | 2.9% | 78.81% | -% | -% | 13.7% | 36% | 54.3% | 68.5% |
| Saturday November 5th, 2016 | 41W, 2D | 2.66% | 81.59% | -% | -% | 14.4% | 37.5% | 56.1% | 70.2% |
| Sunday November 6th, 2016 | 41W, 3D | 2.42% | 84.13% | -% | -% | 15.2% | 39% | 57.9% | 71.9% |
| Monday November 7th, 2016 | 41W, 4D | 2.18% | 86.43% | -% | -% | 16.1% | 40.5% | 59.6% | 73.5% |
| Tuesday November 8th, 2016 | 41W, 5D | 1.94% | 88.49% | -% | -% | 16.9% | 42% | 61.3% | 75.1% |
| Wednesday November 9th, 2016 | 41W, 6D | 1.71% | 90.32% | -% | -% | 17.7% | 43.4% | 62.9% | 76.4% |
| Thursday November 10th, 2016 | 42W, 0D | 1.5% | 91.92% | -% | -% | 18.6% | 44.8% | 64.5% | 77.8% |
| Friday November 11th, 2016 | 42W, 1D | 1.3% | 93.32% | -% | -% | 19.5% | 46.3% | 65.9% | 79.2% |
| Saturday November 12th, 2016 | 42W, 2D | 1.11% | 94.52% | -% | -% | 20.3% | 47.6% | 67.3% | 80.5% |
| Sunday November 13th, 2016 | 42W, 3D | 0.94% | 95.54% | -% | -% | 21.1% | 48.9% | 68.8% | 81.6% |
| Monday November 14th, 2016 | 42W, 4D | 0.79% | 96.41% | -% | -% | 22% | 50.1% | 70.2% | 82.7% |
| Tuesday November 15th, 2016 | 42W, 5D | 0.66% | 97.13% | -% | -% | 23% | 51.6% | 71.4% | 83.6% |
| Wednesday November 16th, 2016 | 42W, 6D | 0.54% | 97.72% | -% | -% | 23.7% | 53.1% | 72.8% | 84.6% |
| Thursday November 17th, 2016 | 43W, 0D | 0.44% | 98.21% | -% | -% | 24.6% | 54.2% | 73.7% | 85.5% |
| Friday November 18th, 2016 | 43W, 1D | 0.35% | 98.61% | -% | -% | 25.2% | 55.4% | 74.8% | 86.3% |
| Saturday November 19th, 2016 | 43W, 2D | 0.28% | 98.93% | -% | -% | 26.2% | 56.1% | 75.7% | 87.9% |
| Sunday November 20th, 2016 | 43W, 3D | 0.22% | 99.18% | -% | -% | 26.8% | 57.3% | 76.8% | -% |
| Monday November 21st, 2016 | 43W, 4D | 0.18% | 99.38% | -% | -% | 29% | 58.1% | 79% | -% |
| Tuesday November 22nd, 2016 | 43W, 5D | 0.14% | 99.53% | -% | -% | 29.8% | 59.6% | -% | -% |
| Wednesday November 23rd, 2016 | 43W, 6D | 0.1% | 99.65% | -% | -% | 28.6% | 62.9% | -% | -% |
| Thursday November 24th, 2016 | 44W, 0D | 0.08% | 99.74% | -% | -% | 30.8% | -% | -% | -% |
| Friday November 25th, 2016 | 44W, 1D | 0.06% | 99.81% | -% | -% | 31.6% | -% | -% | -% |
| Saturday November 26th, 2016 | 44W, 2D | 0.04% | 99.87% | -% | -% | 30.8% | -% | -% | -% |
All percentages are estimates based on mathematical averages and should not be taken terribly seriously... just because you only have 5% chance of going into labor two weeks early, that doesn't mean you should schedule a trip to the bahamas that weekend (see xkcd to get what I mean here).
You should (obviously) listen to your doctor or midwife on all matters related to pregnancy and childbirth. Just because this chart tells you that a 42W pregnant woman has a high chance of delivering in the next seven days, it doesn't mean it's healthy for her to be pregnant for seven more days. If your doctor wants to increase probability of delivery by inducing labor, there's probably a good reason.
Finding good distribution statistics on spontaneous labor is interesting. I have not found a study with an exact daily breakdown of when babies are born. However I have read way too much on this topic, so I can tell you that my favorite published research is The length of human pregnancy as calculated by ultrasonographic measurement of the fetal biparietal diameter (H. Kieler, O. Axelsson, S. Nilsson, U. Waldenströ) which a very nice table of 10 published studies, which found various means between 272-283 days. The study contributes their own results as well, analyzing nearly 2000 mothers who went into labor spontaneously, and there's graphs of what they found. They found a mean around 280 days, and standard deviations between 8-11 days. There's a big list of other studies and answers in the Introduction to my due date survey results.
Which leads to this topic... I am also in the process of collecting my own statistics. If you have had a baby, please take my due date survey. Oddly enough, the numbers I've collected so far support my messy hunch that pregnancy length has a 40-week mean and 9-10 day standard deviation. So go me.
Anyway if you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).
Charts are generated by flot.
I think all, or at least almost all the locked threads were just timed out, as opposed to getting out of hand and needing to be shut down.
Well, I see a lot of locked posts.
As far as how much time you have, when your biological relatives entered menopause is a better indicator than when you entered menarch.
Good luck managing your wait until you feel ready!
- kid would like a sibling
- maybe people are right about end of life stuff
That's about it. I hated being pregnant, the last time I was pregnant the hormones were... really awful. Plus kid is now pretty big so another one would be weird and we gave away all our stuff.
I can still highly recommend this book: (
Also, keep speaking English! Toddlers forget fast when a language is no longer present.
Yay bilingualism!
Things you don't need:
Anything soft, fluffy or furry. My baby couldn't care less about minky blankets and soft toys. Plus they seem more gross to clean when they get covered in bodily fluids.
Clothes that look like adult clothes. It's so difficult to squeeze baby thighs into miniature corduroys or denim jeans which have no give to the fabric.
Baby washcloths. Babies make a disproportionate amount of mess so you need adult size washcloths to clean them up.
Things that were super useful:
A folding changing mat. I have a SkipHop one which has enough storage for wipes and diapers, which was all I needed to carry with me when I had a newborn. Now that he's bigger, I appreciate the larger size of the mat because the one that came with my diaper bag is way too small.
Balls. They were the first thing he played with and still his favourite toys. At the beginning he liked one made by Oball which was easy to pick up, and a soft fabric one which made a crinkly noise. Now he loves throwing a soft rubber ball and watching it bounce.
Somehow MIL has still given us a ton of pink clothing that she'll change him into everytime she comes over.
I hate pink.
I had an appointment with the obgyn today. He seems to think I'm even farther along than he originally thought. I didn't have an ultrasound. He just went by the size of my uterus. It's well over my belly button now. He's sending me to a high risk Dr. Asap and then I'm suppost to see him again on the 29th. By then he said they will have a better idea as to how far along I actually am. So far the pregnancy is going well. I did have complications with my first one and went to a specialist but this time I'm being referred to one because I'm old lol. They automatically send women when they are 35 and older.
Not having read your post, but just the heading, my response was "wine." But after reading your post, I thought "wine."
Yes. After bedtime.
Also, honestly the only way we made it through was we would take turns being the center of focus. We still do this, divide and conquer (and she's only one kid, hell). Also, I know people are like really limit screen time BUT if you really need to get something done one episode of e.g. Daniel Tiger or Paw Patrol or whatever isn't gonna be too bad. I think DarkOne has some good ideas too.
Good luck.
Also I know you can do wills and stuff on your own but honestly I found it super useful to talk through it with a lawyer who does that. She thought of things we never would have. (hm really should revisit now that kid is older) It was a one time fee and not that bad.
We do most of our banking through a credit union. Have been happy with them. We refinanced our mortgage through them when we did that. I remember the big credit union bust ages ago, but there are lots more protections in place now and big banks can be pretty awful.
Today for the first time my 11month old showed interest in a stuffed animal. Just before Christmas we received a box from Amazon with a giant bear inside. No gift wrap, no note. Just a bear the size of my child. It's been sat in his room and ignored completely, despite him exploring literally everything else that is in there. Then, out of the blue, he made a beeline for it and tried to pull its eyes out.
But if generally tactile surfaces also apply, mermaid sequin pillows are comforting. It was one of my impulse buys at a department store about a month ago. I couldn't stop petting the display. The sequined side seemed like it wouldn't be comfortable to rest on but it hasn't been an issue. My stepdad really likes them so I got him one for giftmas and he said it helps distract him when chronic pain keeps him awake at night.
I haven't field tested them on my nieces and nephews yet. That could be fun.