Daily odds of pregnancy miscarriage

Your daily page | Spacefem's Weekly Pregnancy Blog: Week 4

This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.

The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of February 20th, 2019.

Change LMP:
Month Day Year
Date Progress Overall probability of miscarriage
Wednesday March 13th, 2019 3W, 0D 33%
Thursday March 14th, 2019 3W, 1D 32.9%
Friday March 15th, 2019 3W, 2D 32.6%
Saturday March 16th, 2019 3W, 3D 32%
Sunday March 17th, 2019 3W, 4D 31.3%
Monday March 18th, 2019 3W, 5D 30.3%
Tuesday March 19th, 2019 3W, 6D 29.2%
Wednesday March 20th, 2019 4W, 0D 28%
Thursday March 21st, 2019 4W, 1D 26.6%
Friday March 22nd, 2019 4W, 2D 25.2%
Saturday March 23rd, 2019 4W, 3D 23.6%
Sunday March 24th, 2019 4W, 4D 22.1%
Monday March 25th, 2019 4W, 5D 20.5%
Tuesday March 26th, 2019 4W, 6D 18.9%
Wednesday March 27th, 2019 5W, 0D 17.3%
Thursday March 28th, 2019 5W, 1D 15.8%
Friday March 29th, 2019 5W, 2D 14.4%
Saturday March 30th, 2019 5W, 3D 13%
Sunday March 31st, 2019 5W, 4D 11.7%
Monday April 1st, 2019 5W, 5D 10.5%
Tuesday April 2nd, 2019 5W, 6D 9.4%
Wednesday April 3rd, 2019 6W, 0D 8.4%
Thursday April 4th, 2019 6W, 1D 7.5%
Friday April 5th, 2019 6W, 2D 6.6%
Saturday April 6th, 2019 6W, 3D 5.9%
Sunday April 7th, 2019 6W, 4D 5.3%
Monday April 8th, 2019 6W, 5D 4.7%
Tuesday April 9th, 2019 6W, 6D 4.3%
Wednesday April 10th, 2019 7W, 0D 3.9%
Thursday April 11th, 2019 7W, 1D 3.5%
Friday April 12th, 2019 7W, 2D 3.2%
Saturday April 13th, 2019 7W, 3D 3%
Sunday April 14th, 2019 7W, 4D 2.8%
Monday April 15th, 2019 7W, 5D 2.6%
Tuesday April 16th, 2019 7W, 6D 2.5%
Wednesday April 17th, 2019 8W, 0D 2.4%
Thursday April 18th, 2019 8W, 1D 2.3%
Friday April 19th, 2019 8W, 2D 2.2%
Saturday April 20th, 2019 8W, 3D 2.2%
Sunday April 21st, 2019 8W, 4D 2.1%
Monday April 22nd, 2019 8W, 5D 2.1%
Tuesday April 23rd, 2019 8W, 6D 2.1%
Wednesday April 24th, 2019 9W, 0D 2.1%
Thursday April 25th, 2019 9W, 1D 2%
Friday April 26th, 2019 9W, 2D 2%
Saturday April 27th, 2019 9W, 3D 2%
Sunday April 28th, 2019 9W, 4D 2%
Monday April 29th, 2019 9W, 5D 2%
Tuesday April 30th, 2019 9W, 6D 2%
Wednesday May 1st, 2019 10W, 0D 2%
Thursday May 2nd, 2019 10W, 1D 2%
Friday May 3rd, 2019 10W, 2D 2%
Saturday May 4th, 2019 10W, 3D 2%
Sunday May 5th, 2019 10W, 4D 2%
Monday May 6th, 2019 10W, 5D 2%
Tuesday May 7th, 2019 10W, 6D 2%
Wednesday May 8th, 2019 11W, 0D 2%
Thursday May 9th, 2019 11W, 1D 2%
Friday May 10th, 2019 11W, 2D 2%
Saturday May 11th, 2019 11W, 3D 2%
Sunday May 12th, 2019 11W, 4D 2%
Monday May 13th, 2019 11W, 5D 2%
Tuesday May 14th, 2019 11W, 6D 2%
Wednesday May 15th, 2019 12W, 0D 2%
Thursday May 16th, 2019 12W, 1D 2%
Friday May 17th, 2019 12W, 2D 2%
Saturday May 18th, 2019 12W, 3D 2%
Sunday May 19th, 2019 12W, 4D 2%
Monday May 20th, 2019 12W, 5D 2%
Tuesday May 21st, 2019 12W, 6D 2%

Future probability of miscarriage at a given day

Notes and disclaimers

All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).

I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.

The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.

There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.

Charts are generated by flot.

Recent Comments

For more support, encouragement, Q&A, you are invited to join our pregnancy forum. We are dedicated to answering complicated questions as logically as we possibly can.

learning to read

Sat Feb 2 11:42 AM by melsbells in Pregnancy & Parenting

Spacefem, thanks for the book suggestions.

Sonic, I like the way you described the sound a letter makes.

I asked a few early elementary school teachers I know this same question and wanted to share a bit of what they had to say.

They recommended starting with consonant-vowel-consonant words (CVC) with short vowel sounds, and focus on rhyming families (i.e. bat, cat, fat) and even including first consonant changes that don't make real words, like 'gat'. Then later introduce CVC with last letter changes (i.e. bad, bar, bat). They said we could try sight words at the same time and told me to do a search for the Fry sight word list.

After those CVC words aren't a problem, it was suggested to start adding an 'e' at the end of CVC words to change the vowel sound, an the meaning of the words, so introducing long vowels (i.e. cap->cape). Then after all that, we can start adding two consonants together and two vowels together. From there maybe come up with homonyms together, which can be a great way to introduce silent letters (i.e. new, knew).

How important is school?

Thu Nov 22 9:05 PM by Skeezy in Pregnancy & Parenting

I think the most important factor in any school is how much the teachers care about the students. Another important element is safety and how interactions between students can substract from learning. Many parents go to jail for quite lengthy sentences for trying to send to their kids to a safe good school.

I would say its very important, because what you learn shapes and molds yours views that make you who you are.

Unplanned, polyamorous pregnancy situation

Sun Apr 29 12:18 PM by metawidget in Pregnancy & Parenting

I'm glad you have been communicating and working things out. I wish you lots of health and love as you wrote the next chapter of this story.

I might be pregnant...

Fri Jan 5 3:16 AM by Aum in Pregnancy & Parenting

Aum, my partner and I were just discussing this. He was surprised by my taking the hard line that stopping BC or poking holes in condoms or something like that is rape, making the woman a rapist. Which should result in jail time, so she should lose custody, which should go to the father and now he has the choice of keeping the baby or putting them up for adoption.

It's unfortunate that you can't prove such a thing, but hopefully if it was actually taken seriously women would be less likely to do it because it would at least be explicitly called rape.

I understand how the justice system and the family courts would look at it. They see it as the man's sperm made it to the egg so somehow he wasn't protecting himself, he made the choice, yada yada. There's no way to prove that the woman was manipulative, withdrew BC, or "poked holes in the condom" (I think that's unheard of, but anyway).

When do you outsource parenting?

Sat Oct 14 7:47 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

yeah I do a ton of supplemental history... :(

Sleep for babies after 6 months

Thu Jan 10 1:30 AM by Sonic# in Pregnancy & Parenting

Thank you for the stories. I try not to get caught up in comparisons, but it's so hard when someone else is like, "Oh yeah, they're sleeping through the night after six months, no problem!" and we're nudging each other when it's our turn to get up at night almost every night. Did I do something wrong? (The answer is probably no, but a lack of sleep makes it harder to get there mentally.)

I topped baby off tonight. He straight up drank 7 ounces of formula after his prunes. If he's an infiltrator, he's eating well for it. :)

How the 2nd pregnancy / labor was different from the first

Thu Sep 27 8:20 PM by antfancier in Pregnancy & Parenting

I haven’t been around for a long time, but I’m back and pregnant again. Only 6 weeks, so I can’t really comment much, but this time around it has been easier so far. Not easy, but considering I’m working and have a 2.5yr old (neither of which applied to last pregnancy), I thought I’d feel much worse. I still have ALL the symptoms and they all started at 3 weeks, just like last time (and the same as a chemical pregnancy I had too) but they don’t seem to be as constant as before. I’m really glad about that! The only thing that’s worse is back ache, ligament pain, general body aches. I assume it’s because my body is already exhausted and broken from my toddler.

posting pictures of kids and privacy

Wed Apr 25 7:29 AM by juliabonl17 in Pregnancy & Parenting

Usually, we don't share photos of our children in social media. Sometimes I can send some photos to close friends. I keep my personal life in quiet. Share with family only.

I had my 2nd baby!!!!

Wed Jan 3 8:21 PM by MFS in Pregnancy & Parenting


I am still dealing with the fact that your 11 year old is an actual 11 year old.

on being semi-pregnant

Tue Oct 3 7:18 PM by geldofc in Pregnancy & Parenting

congratulations!! i've never been pregnant but i'm jealous. i'm having baby fever lately.

kids' mail subscriptions

Wed Jan 9 6:41 PM by melsbells in Pregnancy & Parenting

We got the first box last week. Kid wanted to do the whole thing in one sitting, which was tough. He has a hard time stopping something, even when it's obvious he needs a break. He doesn't have the best conception of time yet either and kept talking about the box that would come tomorrow. So getting something once a month might help pin down the passage of time. As far as my concerns, we had a great opportunity (when he was disappointed that the Europe page didn't say anything about Finland) to talk about how a single page on a whole continent or even an individual country can't tell us what a place and culture is like. Bavaria was mentioned, so we also got to talk about how our German friend feels when people only think of Bavarian things when thinking of Germany, which she doesn't feel a connection to.

housemates + newborn = ?

Thu Aug 2 11:57 AM by melsbells in Pregnancy & Parenting

I live with my in-laws, and while there will certainly be a lot of differences from your situation, maybe there's enough similarities that my experience could be useful to you. I think the biggest thing is that everyone has their own space. Our house is sort of divided in two, so we can take the kid to our end during a tantrum. I think that distance helps, not just with in-laws not wanting to hear screaming, but as a sort of physical signal for the kid to calm down. We lived in an apartment when the kid was first born and our neighbors there probably heard more screaming/crying due to proximity.

My father-in-law spends a lot of time with the kid, mostly by choice. I sometimes wish we had more of a schedule, because at the moment, naps and bedtime are the only semi-guaranteed breaks for anyone. My spouse and father-in-law both work from home free-lance, so they don't actually have a schedule for when they need to be left alone, but at least my father-in-law has more warning with jobs scheduled out in advance.

My Ectopic Pregnancy

Tue Jan 23 8:47 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

FYI we have a general culture in the pregnancy forum here about sharing similar stories as a way to offer support, and also about giving any medical knowledge that we've come across, since pregnancy is generally not talked about as much as it should be and you find information in random places. Since you haven't been around until now you probably didn't know that, and mels' post is well in line with forum guidelines and norms. Please don't go all mod martyr on us now that you're only just back. This is me as a friend speaking here, not with my modhat on.

I'm sorry for your loss. Ectopic pregnancies are scary, and I would like to go punch that first doctor in the face for you.

PPD is awful too. :( I hope you can get through it.

gender recognition

Thu Nov 2 1:03 PM by Nech in Pregnancy & Parenting

You can continue discussing with him the difference of a boy and a girl. Have him socialize too with the same gender. There's nothing wrong if you have go with opposite sex as long as he understands what/who he is.

So do you feel hanging out with the opposite gender at a young age can confuse a person's gender identity?

leftist parenting and gender [split from gender recognition]

Sat Sep 23 11:52 AM by Unvoiced_Apollo in Pregnancy & Parenting

gender recognition.">

If a boy who has a penis asks if he's a boy and you don't just say yes, then that's straight up lunacy.

What he decides to do with that boyhood or how he dresses is up to him. But if you're born with a penis you're a boy.

Making it airy fairy when, statistically, scientifically, less than 1% of 1% of children born have true gender dysphoria, is immoral and wrong. It's also a sign of our troubled times.

This is just my anecdotal experience but...

I have experienced bullying based on simply engaging in normal children's play with girls. Insults were attacks on both me and the girls. But I NEVER questioned my gender as a male. So if a child asks me if he's a boy and was identified biologically as one, I am going to question what influences are on the child before I answer.