Daily odds of pregnancy miscarriage

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This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.

The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of February 6th, 2015.

Change LMP:
Month Day Year
Date Progress Overall probability of miscarriage
Friday February 27th, 2015 3W, 0D 33%
Saturday February 28th, 2015 3W, 1D 32.9%
Sunday March 1st, 2015 3W, 2D 32.6%
Monday March 2nd, 2015 3W, 3D 32%
Tuesday March 3rd, 2015 3W, 4D 31.3%
Wednesday March 4th, 2015 3W, 5D 30.3%
Thursday March 5th, 2015 3W, 6D 29.2%
Friday March 6th, 2015 4W, 0D 28%
Saturday March 7th, 2015 4W, 1D 26.6%
Sunday March 8th, 2015 4W, 2D 25.2%
Monday March 9th, 2015 4W, 3D 23.6%
Tuesday March 10th, 2015 4W, 4D 22.1%
Wednesday March 11th, 2015 4W, 5D 20.5%
Thursday March 12th, 2015 4W, 6D 18.9%
Friday March 13th, 2015 5W, 0D 17.3%
Saturday March 14th, 2015 5W, 1D 15.8%
Sunday March 15th, 2015 5W, 2D 14.4%
Monday March 16th, 2015 5W, 3D 13%
Tuesday March 17th, 2015 5W, 4D 11.7%
Wednesday March 18th, 2015 5W, 5D 10.5%
Thursday March 19th, 2015 5W, 6D 9.4%
Friday March 20th, 2015 6W, 0D 8.4%
Saturday March 21st, 2015 6W, 1D 7.5%
Sunday March 22nd, 2015 6W, 2D 6.6%
Monday March 23rd, 2015 6W, 3D 5.9%
Tuesday March 24th, 2015 6W, 4D 5.3%
Wednesday March 25th, 2015 6W, 5D 4.7%
Thursday March 26th, 2015 6W, 6D 4.3%
Friday March 27th, 2015 7W, 0D 3.9%
Saturday March 28th, 2015 7W, 1D 3.5%
Sunday March 29th, 2015 7W, 2D 3.2%
Monday March 30th, 2015 7W, 3D 3%
Tuesday March 31st, 2015 7W, 4D 2.8%
Wednesday April 1st, 2015 7W, 5D 2.6%
Thursday April 2nd, 2015 7W, 6D 2.5%
Friday April 3rd, 2015 8W, 0D 2.4%
Saturday April 4th, 2015 8W, 1D 2.3%
Sunday April 5th, 2015 8W, 2D 2.2%
Monday April 6th, 2015 8W, 3D 2.2%
Tuesday April 7th, 2015 8W, 4D 2.1%
Wednesday April 8th, 2015 8W, 5D 2.1%
Thursday April 9th, 2015 8W, 6D 2.1%
Friday April 10th, 2015 9W, 0D 2.1%
Saturday April 11th, 2015 9W, 1D 2%
Sunday April 12th, 2015 9W, 2D 2%
Monday April 13th, 2015 9W, 3D 2%
Tuesday April 14th, 2015 9W, 4D 2%
Wednesday April 15th, 2015 9W, 5D 2%
Thursday April 16th, 2015 9W, 6D 2%
Friday April 17th, 2015 10W, 0D 2%
Saturday April 18th, 2015 10W, 1D 2%
Sunday April 19th, 2015 10W, 2D 2%
Monday April 20th, 2015 10W, 3D 2%
Tuesday April 21st, 2015 10W, 4D 2%
Wednesday April 22nd, 2015 10W, 5D 2%
Thursday April 23rd, 2015 10W, 6D 2%
Friday April 24th, 2015 11W, 0D 2%
Saturday April 25th, 2015 11W, 1D 2%
Sunday April 26th, 2015 11W, 2D 2%
Monday April 27th, 2015 11W, 3D 2%
Tuesday April 28th, 2015 11W, 4D 2%
Wednesday April 29th, 2015 11W, 5D 2%
Thursday April 30th, 2015 11W, 6D 2%
Friday May 1st, 2015 12W, 0D 2%
Saturday May 2nd, 2015 12W, 1D 2%
Sunday May 3rd, 2015 12W, 2D 2%
Monday May 4th, 2015 12W, 3D 2%
Tuesday May 5th, 2015 12W, 4D 2%
Wednesday May 6th, 2015 12W, 5D 2%
Thursday May 7th, 2015 12W, 6D 2%

Future probability of miscarriage at a given day

Notes and disclaimers

All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).

I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.

The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.

There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.

Charts are generated by flot.

Recent Comments

For more support, encouragement, Q&A, you are invited to join our pregnancy forum. We are dedicated to answering complicated questions as logically as we possibly can.

housemates + newborn = ?

Wed Jul 18 6:31 PM by octarineoboe in Pregnancy & Parenting

HOLY BURIED LEDE BATMAN



I admit I haven’t been around here a ton lately but I didn’t know babySonic had arrived! Congrats!!!!



Alas I don’t have any actual advice. My college besties (a married couple) and I fantasize about sharing a house, and they are actively trying to have kids, so we talked about that possibility a little bit, but right now we live in different cities and they don’t have a kid yet so it’s all speculation. But I think it could probably work - as the prospective non-parent I would want to make sure I had my own kid-free space in the house and we were really clear about responsibilities ahead of time, eg, I’m a roommate not an all-purpose babysitter, how will this affect the split of other housework, etc.


My Ectopic Pregnancy

Tue Jan 23 8:47 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

FYI we have a general culture in the pregnancy forum here about sharing similar stories as a way to offer support, and also about giving any medical knowledge that we've come across, since pregnancy is generally not talked about as much as it should be and you find information in random places. Since you haven't been around until now you probably didn't know that, and mels' post is well in line with forum guidelines and norms. Please don't go all mod martyr on us now that you're only just back. This is me as a friend speaking here, not with my modhat on.



I'm sorry for your loss. Ectopic pregnancies are scary, and I would like to go punch that first doctor in the face for you.



PPD is awful too. :( I hope you can get through it.


gender recognition

Thu Nov 2 1:03 PM by Nech in Pregnancy & Parenting


You can continue discussing with him the difference of a boy and a girl. Have him socialize too with the same gender. There's nothing wrong if you have go with opposite sex as long as he understands what/who he is.


So do you feel hanging out with the opposite gender at a young age can confuse a person's gender identity?


leftist parenting and gender [split from gender recognition]

Sat Sep 23 11:52 AM by Unvoiced_Apollo in Pregnancy & Parenting


gender recognition.">



If a boy who has a penis asks if he's a boy and you don't just say yes, then that's straight up lunacy.



What he decides to do with that boyhood or how he dresses is up to him. But if you're born with a penis you're a boy.



Making it airy fairy when, statistically, scientifically, less than 1% of 1% of children born have true gender dysphoria, is immoral and wrong. It's also a sign of our troubled times.


This is just my anecdotal experience but...



I have experienced bullying based on simply engaging in normal children's play with girls. Insults were attacks on both me and the girls. But I NEVER questioned my gender as a male. So if a child asks me if he's a boy and was identified biologically as one, I am going to question what influences are on the child before I answer.


Postpartum issues: things that can go wrong after

Wed Aug 9 5:24 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

ugh that totes doesn't just happen during c-section. I had a friend who found out when she was having (other) surgery years later and they stitched her up since "they were in there anyway". Honestly I think I also have it but it doesn't cause problems *most* of the time (sometimes stabby pain but no one takes it seriously so idk).


Unplanned, polyamorous pregnancy situation

Sun Apr 29 12:18 PM by metawidget in Pregnancy & Parenting

I'm glad you have been communicating and working things out. I wish you lots of health and love as you wrote the next chapter of this story.


I might be pregnant...

Fri Jan 5 3:16 AM by Aum in Pregnancy & Parenting


Aum, my partner and I were just discussing this. He was surprised by my taking the hard line that stopping BC or poking holes in condoms or something like that is rape, making the woman a rapist. Which should result in jail time, so she should lose custody, which should go to the father and now he has the choice of keeping the baby or putting them up for adoption.

It's unfortunate that you can't prove such a thing, but hopefully if it was actually taken seriously women would be less likely to do it because it would at least be explicitly called rape.


I understand how the justice system and the family courts would look at it. They see it as the man's sperm made it to the egg so somehow he wasn't protecting himself, he made the choice, yada yada. There's no way to prove that the woman was manipulative, withdrew BC, or "poked holes in the condom" (I think that's unheard of, but anyway).


When do you outsource parenting?

Sat Oct 14 7:47 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

yeah I do a ton of supplemental history... :(


It might be time for a baby.

Sat Sep 16 1:59 PM by Sonic# in Pregnancy & Parenting

I got curious on the question of single parent families. Definitely, I think financial stability or having some sort of support network (family, friends) is better than not having it.



I found this article ( https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4886836/ ). The article does point out that several factors adjust child adjustment, like finances and parental stress. Merely being a single parent? Not a factor:
The findings suggest that solo motherhood, in itself, does not result in psychological problems for children.

The lit review at the beginning of the article adds some specificity here. What seems hard on kids is not single parenthood itself; it's often the divorce that results in a single parent being involved. These studies have consistently shown that children whose parents divorce are more likely to show emotional and behavioral problems than are children in intact families (Amato, 2000, 2001, 2005; Coleman & Glenn, 2009; Hetherington & Stanley-Hagan, 1999; Pryor & Rodgers, 2001). However, the children’s difficulties appear to be largely associated with aspects of the divorce, rather than single-parenthood, in itself. Then there are people who become single parents, but not by choice. That's also rough, often because these parents lack the financial stability and stability to do well. So the article is really looking at single parents by choice. They can raise children as well as two-parent households.


How to deal with opinionated toddlers (or babies or kids)

Tue Aug 1 1:57 AM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

Ooof. My kid is very social, needs to be around someone all the time. It's ... challenging, as you've found. It does get better as they gain their own interests. But it took a long time to get past clingy.



Not having read your post, but just the heading, my response was "wine." But after reading your post, I thought "wine."

Yes. After bedtime.



Also, honestly the only way we made it through was we would take turns being the center of focus. We still do this, divide and conquer (and she's only one kid, hell). Also, I know people are like really limit screen time BUT if you really need to get something done one episode of e.g. Daniel Tiger or Paw Patrol or whatever isn't gonna be too bad. I think DarkOne has some good ideas too.



Good luck.


posting pictures of kids and privacy

Wed Apr 25 7:29 AM by juliabonl17 in Pregnancy & Parenting

Usually, we don't share photos of our children in social media. Sometimes I can send some photos to close friends. I keep my personal life in quiet. Share with family only.


I had my 2nd baby!!!!

Wed Jan 3 8:21 PM by MFS in Pregnancy & Parenting

OMG BABY!



I am still dealing with the fact that your 11 year old is an actual 11 year old.


on being semi-pregnant

Tue Oct 3 7:18 PM by geldofc in Pregnancy & Parenting

congratulations!! i've never been pregnant but i'm jealous. i'm having baby fever lately.


Clock-Ticking

Wed Sep 13 6:58 PM by geldofc in Pregnancy & Parenting

my clock started ticking in my 20s and i would love a child at 30 now but i want to live how i want for a few more years, and have my career established. i don't see parenthood for another 5 years.



egg freezing seems like a good option esp if you have extra time and money.


bad reasons for having a baby

Tue Aug 1 1:47 AM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

but I take them to restaurants so I know they end up hating 90% of the things they ask for.
:lol:



- kid would like a sibling

- maybe people are right about end of life stuff



That's about it. I hated being pregnant, the last time I was pregnant the hormones were... really awful. Plus kid is now pretty big so another one would be weird and we gave away all our stuff. ;)