Daily odds of pregnancy miscarriage

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This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.

The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of February 19th, 2015.

Change LMP:
Month Day Year
Date Progress Overall probability of miscarriage
Thursday March 12th, 2015 3W, 0D 33%
Friday March 13th, 2015 3W, 1D 32.9%
Saturday March 14th, 2015 3W, 2D 32.6%
Sunday March 15th, 2015 3W, 3D 32%
Monday March 16th, 2015 3W, 4D 31.3%
Tuesday March 17th, 2015 3W, 5D 30.3%
Wednesday March 18th, 2015 3W, 6D 29.2%
Thursday March 19th, 2015 4W, 0D 28%
Friday March 20th, 2015 4W, 1D 26.6%
Saturday March 21st, 2015 4W, 2D 25.2%
Sunday March 22nd, 2015 4W, 3D 23.6%
Monday March 23rd, 2015 4W, 4D 22.1%
Tuesday March 24th, 2015 4W, 5D 20.5%
Wednesday March 25th, 2015 4W, 6D 18.9%
Thursday March 26th, 2015 5W, 0D 17.3%
Friday March 27th, 2015 5W, 1D 15.8%
Saturday March 28th, 2015 5W, 2D 14.4%
Sunday March 29th, 2015 5W, 3D 13%
Monday March 30th, 2015 5W, 4D 11.7%
Tuesday March 31st, 2015 5W, 5D 10.5%
Wednesday April 1st, 2015 5W, 6D 9.4%
Thursday April 2nd, 2015 6W, 0D 8.4%
Friday April 3rd, 2015 6W, 1D 7.5%
Saturday April 4th, 2015 6W, 2D 6.6%
Sunday April 5th, 2015 6W, 3D 5.9%
Monday April 6th, 2015 6W, 4D 5.3%
Tuesday April 7th, 2015 6W, 5D 4.7%
Wednesday April 8th, 2015 6W, 6D 4.3%
Thursday April 9th, 2015 7W, 0D 3.9%
Friday April 10th, 2015 7W, 1D 3.5%
Saturday April 11th, 2015 7W, 2D 3.2%
Sunday April 12th, 2015 7W, 3D 3%
Monday April 13th, 2015 7W, 4D 2.8%
Tuesday April 14th, 2015 7W, 5D 2.6%
Wednesday April 15th, 2015 7W, 6D 2.5%
Thursday April 16th, 2015 8W, 0D 2.4%
Friday April 17th, 2015 8W, 1D 2.3%
Saturday April 18th, 2015 8W, 2D 2.2%
Sunday April 19th, 2015 8W, 3D 2.2%
Monday April 20th, 2015 8W, 4D 2.1%
Tuesday April 21st, 2015 8W, 5D 2.1%
Wednesday April 22nd, 2015 8W, 6D 2.1%
Thursday April 23rd, 2015 9W, 0D 2.1%
Friday April 24th, 2015 9W, 1D 2%
Saturday April 25th, 2015 9W, 2D 2%
Sunday April 26th, 2015 9W, 3D 2%
Monday April 27th, 2015 9W, 4D 2%
Tuesday April 28th, 2015 9W, 5D 2%
Wednesday April 29th, 2015 9W, 6D 2%
Thursday April 30th, 2015 10W, 0D 2%
Friday May 1st, 2015 10W, 1D 2%
Saturday May 2nd, 2015 10W, 2D 2%
Sunday May 3rd, 2015 10W, 3D 2%
Monday May 4th, 2015 10W, 4D 2%
Tuesday May 5th, 2015 10W, 5D 2%
Wednesday May 6th, 2015 10W, 6D 2%
Thursday May 7th, 2015 11W, 0D 2%
Friday May 8th, 2015 11W, 1D 2%
Saturday May 9th, 2015 11W, 2D 2%
Sunday May 10th, 2015 11W, 3D 2%
Monday May 11th, 2015 11W, 4D 2%
Tuesday May 12th, 2015 11W, 5D 2%
Wednesday May 13th, 2015 11W, 6D 2%
Thursday May 14th, 2015 12W, 0D 2%
Friday May 15th, 2015 12W, 1D 2%
Saturday May 16th, 2015 12W, 2D 2%
Sunday May 17th, 2015 12W, 3D 2%
Monday May 18th, 2015 12W, 4D 2%
Tuesday May 19th, 2015 12W, 5D 2%
Wednesday May 20th, 2015 12W, 6D 2%

Future probability of miscarriage at a given day

Notes and disclaimers

All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).

I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.

The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.

There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.

Charts are generated by flot.

Recent Comments

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gender recognition

Tue Sep 19 11:05 AM by melsbells in Pregnancy & Parenting

MOD NOTE: This thread was split into this thread. I wanted to pull the resources responding to the question in the OP that were in posts split into the other thread.

Mels, I know Cordelia Fine's books on gender and neuroscience address little kids and the infleunces they receive at certain points. To my memory, her work was mainly demonstrative - hey, yes, kids are externally exposed to gender at very early points, and we can see kids beginning to internalize these ideas about gender.

Looking at Wikipedia, I know I've read one of the cited articles before and found it interesting (Martin, C. L. (1990). "Attitudes and Expectations about Children with Nontraditional and Traditional Gender Roles". Sex Roles. 22 (3-4): 151–66.) The gist is that understandings of gender begin to emerge by ages 2 or 3, and they continue to develop over the course of years, which includes some stigma (esp. for boys) when people step outside of understood roles. Then this article is more recent than that (2017), by the same author, and (based on my skim) seems to have pretty decent coverage in the articles it uses (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3747736/).


Wed Sep 13 6:58 PM by geldofc in Pregnancy & Parenting

my clock started ticking in my 20s and i would love a child at 30 now but i want to live how i want for a few more years, and have my career established. i don't see parenthood for another 5 years.

egg freezing seems like a good option esp if you have extra time and money.

bad reasons for having a baby

Tue Aug 1 1:47 AM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

but I take them to restaurants so I know they end up hating 90% of the things they ask for.

- kid would like a sibling

- maybe people are right about end of life stuff

That's about it. I hated being pregnant, the last time I was pregnant the hormones were... really awful. Plus kid is now pretty big so another one would be weird and we gave away all our stuff. ;)

how do you travel?

Mon Jun 19 11:00 AM by DarkOne in Pregnancy & Parenting

We're traveling with a 2 yo and a 4yo this week. A 2 hr flight connecting to a 4 hr flight. I broke down and got tablets and headphones, now I just need to load them with movies/games. I'm packing treats and stickers and crayons and notepads. I'm almost positive I'll be carrying on a (very compactable) pillow, 'cause they don't give those out anymore on board. I'm banning toys that can roll several aisles fwd or back when inevitably dropped (besides the crayons). I was planning on gum for ascent/descent, but I think the suckers for the 2yo will be better. I'm so not looking forward to these flights. Maybe the kids will surprise me and be awesome. I'm not worried about the 4yo. But the 2yo...

Bilingual Toddler

Wed May 3 10:19 PM by Nachos in Pregnancy & Parenting

Bilingualism! This is something I know a lot about! My last job was to speak English to my class in a partial immersion school and the kids picked up English so fast but spoke back to me in German. We worked on saying different words in German and in English and it meaning the same thing and I read English books to them. They differentiated pretty well but most of them came from a mono-lingual family background.

I can still highly recommend this book: (https://www.amazon.com/Third-Culture-Kids-Growing-Revised/dp/1857885252) for bilingual children. Some very good advice in there.

Also, keep speaking English! Toddlers forget fast when a language is no longer present.

Yay bilingualism!

leftist parenting and gender [split from gender recognition]

Sat Sep 16 2:46 PM by Sonic# in Pregnancy & Parenting

I haven't flamed anyone in this thread, I don't deserve it.
Yes, you have. Aum, you claimed I couldn't "handle this kind of counterinformation" and put words in my mouth. You attacked trans men who get pregnant and misgendered them by calling them "a biological woman" (hence my comment on "trans-hating diatribe", which describes what you said and which you continue to misconstrue as personal attack). You appeared to claim that what melsbells was doing "was immoral and wrong." Yes, you've since clarified the latter point, but if you want to know why people are arguing with you, it's because of that, because of the combative tone you set with your very first reply, and because of the moderator martyrdom that has been going on.

I thought stepping away would prevent the thread from going off-topic. I was wrong. So when Aum made more posts and I had a few days to focus on work, I decided to come back and think through some of this.

Postpartum issues: things that can go wrong after

Wed Aug 9 5:24 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

ugh that totes doesn't just happen during c-section. I had a friend who found out when she was having (other) surgery years later and they stitched her up since "they were in there anyway". Honestly I think I also have it but it doesn't cause problems *most* of the time (sometimes stabby pain but no one takes it seriously so idk).

Just Can't Let It Go

Wed Jul 26 1:18 AM by Taurwen in Pregnancy & Parenting

We didn't find out specifically because we didn't want a lot of pink stuff if it was a girl.

Somehow MIL has still given us a ton of pink clothing that she'll change him into everytime she comes over.

I hate pink.

Another baby stars

Thu Jun 15 6:54 AM by StarsInUrEye in Pregnancy & Parenting

Thanks for the congratulations and encouragement.

I had an appointment with the obgyn today. He seems to think I'm even farther along than he originally thought. I didn't have an ultrasound. He just went by the size of my uterus. It's well over my belly button now. He's sending me to a high risk Dr. Asap and then I'm suppost to see him again on the 29th. By then he said they will have a better idea as to how far along I actually am. So far the pregnancy is going well. I did have complications with my first one and went to a specialist but this time I'm being referred to one because I'm old lol. They automatically send women when they are 35 and older.

What did I just say?

Wed Mar 15 12:25 PM by mariareese in Pregnancy & Parenting

Looking to know about the system and biology :D hehe ..

It might be time for a baby.

Sat Sep 16 1:59 PM by Sonic# in Pregnancy & Parenting

I got curious on the question of single parent families. Definitely, I think financial stability or having some sort of support network (family, friends) is better than not having it.

I found this article ( https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4886836/ ). The article does point out that several factors adjust child adjustment, like finances and parental stress. Merely being a single parent? Not a factor:
The findings suggest that solo motherhood, in itself, does not result in psychological problems for children.

The lit review at the beginning of the article adds some specificity here. What seems hard on kids is not single parenthood itself; it's often the divorce that results in a single parent being involved. These studies have consistently shown that children whose parents divorce are more likely to show emotional and behavioral problems than are children in intact families (Amato, 2000, 2001, 2005; Coleman & Glenn, 2009; Hetherington & Stanley-Hagan, 1999; Pryor & Rodgers, 2001). However, the children’s difficulties appear to be largely associated with aspects of the divorce, rather than single-parenthood, in itself. Then there are people who become single parents, but not by choice. That's also rough, often because these parents lack the financial stability and stability to do well. So the article is really looking at single parents by choice. They can raise children as well as two-parent households.

How to deal with opinionated toddlers (or babies or kids)

Tue Aug 1 1:57 AM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

Ooof. My kid is very social, needs to be around someone all the time. It's ... challenging, as you've found. It does get better as they gain their own interests. But it took a long time to get past clingy.

Not having read your post, but just the heading, my response was "wine." But after reading your post, I thought "wine."

Yes. After bedtime.

Also, honestly the only way we made it through was we would take turns being the center of focus. We still do this, divide and conquer (and she's only one kid, hell). Also, I know people are like really limit screen time BUT if you really need to get something done one episode of e.g. Daniel Tiger or Paw Patrol or whatever isn't gonna be too bad. I think DarkOne has some good ideas too.

Good luck.

Happiest Baby on the Block

Wed Jul 12 4:52 PM by antfancier in Pregnancy & Parenting

My mum gave me 'Your Baby and Child' by Penelope Leach, which is what she used when she had me. It covers from birth to five years. I read the first section about newborns in preparation. After having the baby, I realised I have zero time or brain power to do anything so I never got around to the rest of it. In general, I liked the book though. It's a simple overview and has nice color photos.

To all Moms: Where do you go for financial concerns?

Tue May 9 4:18 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

My father in law does financial advising so we kind of have an in-house advisor? But seriously someone with expertise is great. There are various "how to do finances" through our local community ed, which I'd probably consider if I didn't already have someone to ask. Maybe something like that near you? Libraries also sometimes have programs.

Also I know you can do wills and stuff on your own but honestly I found it super useful to talk through it with a lawyer who does that. She thought of things we never would have. (hm really should revisit now that kid is older) It was a one time fee and not that bad.

We do most of our banking through a credit union. Have been happy with them. We refinanced our mortgage through them when we did that. I remember the big credit union bust ages ago, but there are lots more protections in place now and big banks can be pretty awful.

stuffed animals

Thu Feb 23 1:20 AM by antfancier in Pregnancy & Parenting

My brother's favorite stuffed animal was a thing we called 'gerbil'. I actually don't know what it was because we found it in the street (not sure what my mum was thinking in allowing him to pick it up, let alone keep it) and it had already lost an eye and was unidentifiable, but he became really attached to it. We almost missed a flight once because he dropped it in the airport and we had to go back to look for it.

Today for the first time my 11month old showed interest in a stuffed animal. Just before Christmas we received a box from Amazon with a giant bear inside. No gift wrap, no note. Just a bear the size of my child. It's been sat in his room and ignored completely, despite him exploring literally everything else that is in there. Then, out of the blue, he made a beeline for it and tried to pull its eyes out.