This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.
The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of February 26th, 2020.
| Date | Progress | Overall probability of miscarriage |
|---|---|---|
| Wednesday March 18th, 2020 | 3W, 0D | 33% |
| Thursday March 19th, 2020 | 3W, 1D | 32.9% |
| Friday March 20th, 2020 | 3W, 2D | 32.6% |
| Saturday March 21st, 2020 | 3W, 3D | 32% |
| Sunday March 22nd, 2020 | 3W, 4D | 31.3% |
| Monday March 23rd, 2020 | 3W, 5D | 30.3% |
| Tuesday March 24th, 2020 | 3W, 6D | 29.2% |
| Wednesday March 25th, 2020 | 4W, 0D | 28% |
| Thursday March 26th, 2020 | 4W, 1D | 26.6% |
| Friday March 27th, 2020 | 4W, 2D | 25.2% |
| Saturday March 28th, 2020 | 4W, 3D | 23.6% |
| Sunday March 29th, 2020 | 4W, 4D | 22.1% |
| Monday March 30th, 2020 | 4W, 5D | 20.5% |
| Tuesday March 31st, 2020 | 4W, 6D | 18.9% |
| Wednesday April 1st, 2020 | 5W, 0D | 17.3% |
| Thursday April 2nd, 2020 | 5W, 1D | 15.8% |
| Friday April 3rd, 2020 | 5W, 2D | 14.4% |
| Saturday April 4th, 2020 | 5W, 3D | 13% |
| Sunday April 5th, 2020 | 5W, 4D | 11.7% |
| Monday April 6th, 2020 | 5W, 5D | 10.5% |
| Tuesday April 7th, 2020 | 5W, 6D | 9.4% |
| Wednesday April 8th, 2020 | 6W, 0D | 8.4% |
| Thursday April 9th, 2020 | 6W, 1D | 7.5% |
| Friday April 10th, 2020 | 6W, 2D | 6.6% |
| Saturday April 11th, 2020 | 6W, 3D | 5.9% |
| Sunday April 12th, 2020 | 6W, 4D | 5.3% |
| Monday April 13th, 2020 | 6W, 5D | 4.7% |
| Tuesday April 14th, 2020 | 6W, 6D | 4.3% |
| Wednesday April 15th, 2020 | 7W, 0D | 3.9% |
| Thursday April 16th, 2020 | 7W, 1D | 3.5% |
| Friday April 17th, 2020 | 7W, 2D | 3.2% |
| Saturday April 18th, 2020 | 7W, 3D | 3% |
| Sunday April 19th, 2020 | 7W, 4D | 2.8% |
| Monday April 20th, 2020 | 7W, 5D | 2.6% |
| Tuesday April 21st, 2020 | 7W, 6D | 2.5% |
| Wednesday April 22nd, 2020 | 8W, 0D | 2.4% |
| Thursday April 23rd, 2020 | 8W, 1D | 2.3% |
| Friday April 24th, 2020 | 8W, 2D | 2.2% |
| Saturday April 25th, 2020 | 8W, 3D | 2.2% |
| Sunday April 26th, 2020 | 8W, 4D | 2.1% |
| Monday April 27th, 2020 | 8W, 5D | 2.1% |
| Tuesday April 28th, 2020 | 8W, 6D | 2.1% |
| Wednesday April 29th, 2020 | 9W, 0D | 2.1% |
| Thursday April 30th, 2020 | 9W, 1D | 2% |
| Friday May 1st, 2020 | 9W, 2D | 2% |
| Saturday May 2nd, 2020 | 9W, 3D | 2% |
| Sunday May 3rd, 2020 | 9W, 4D | 2% |
| Monday May 4th, 2020 | 9W, 5D | 2% |
| Tuesday May 5th, 2020 | 9W, 6D | 2% |
| Wednesday May 6th, 2020 | 10W, 0D | 2% |
| Thursday May 7th, 2020 | 10W, 1D | 2% |
| Friday May 8th, 2020 | 10W, 2D | 2% |
| Saturday May 9th, 2020 | 10W, 3D | 2% |
| Sunday May 10th, 2020 | 10W, 4D | 2% |
| Monday May 11th, 2020 | 10W, 5D | 2% |
| Tuesday May 12th, 2020 | 10W, 6D | 2% |
| Wednesday May 13th, 2020 | 11W, 0D | 2% |
| Thursday May 14th, 2020 | 11W, 1D | 2% |
| Friday May 15th, 2020 | 11W, 2D | 2% |
| Saturday May 16th, 2020 | 11W, 3D | 2% |
| Sunday May 17th, 2020 | 11W, 4D | 2% |
| Monday May 18th, 2020 | 11W, 5D | 2% |
| Tuesday May 19th, 2020 | 11W, 6D | 2% |
| Wednesday May 20th, 2020 | 12W, 0D | 2% |
| Thursday May 21st, 2020 | 12W, 1D | 2% |
| Friday May 22nd, 2020 | 12W, 2D | 2% |
| Saturday May 23rd, 2020 | 12W, 3D | 2% |
| Sunday May 24th, 2020 | 12W, 4D | 2% |
| Monday May 25th, 2020 | 12W, 5D | 2% |
| Tuesday May 26th, 2020 | 12W, 6D | 2% |
All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).
I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.
There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.
Charts are generated by flot.