Daily odds of pregnancy miscarriage

Your daily page | Spacefem's Weekly Pregnancy Blog: Week 1

This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.

The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of February 26th, 2020.

Change LMP:
Month Day Year
Date Progress Overall probability of miscarriage
Wednesday March 18th, 2020 3W, 0D 33%
Thursday March 19th, 2020 3W, 1D 32.9%
Friday March 20th, 2020 3W, 2D 32.6%
Saturday March 21st, 2020 3W, 3D 32%
Sunday March 22nd, 2020 3W, 4D 31.3%
Monday March 23rd, 2020 3W, 5D 30.3%
Tuesday March 24th, 2020 3W, 6D 29.2%
Wednesday March 25th, 2020 4W, 0D 28%
Thursday March 26th, 2020 4W, 1D 26.6%
Friday March 27th, 2020 4W, 2D 25.2%
Saturday March 28th, 2020 4W, 3D 23.6%
Sunday March 29th, 2020 4W, 4D 22.1%
Monday March 30th, 2020 4W, 5D 20.5%
Tuesday March 31st, 2020 4W, 6D 18.9%
Wednesday April 1st, 2020 5W, 0D 17.3%
Thursday April 2nd, 2020 5W, 1D 15.8%
Friday April 3rd, 2020 5W, 2D 14.4%
Saturday April 4th, 2020 5W, 3D 13%
Sunday April 5th, 2020 5W, 4D 11.7%
Monday April 6th, 2020 5W, 5D 10.5%
Tuesday April 7th, 2020 5W, 6D 9.4%
Wednesday April 8th, 2020 6W, 0D 8.4%
Thursday April 9th, 2020 6W, 1D 7.5%
Friday April 10th, 2020 6W, 2D 6.6%
Saturday April 11th, 2020 6W, 3D 5.9%
Sunday April 12th, 2020 6W, 4D 5.3%
Monday April 13th, 2020 6W, 5D 4.7%
Tuesday April 14th, 2020 6W, 6D 4.3%
Wednesday April 15th, 2020 7W, 0D 3.9%
Thursday April 16th, 2020 7W, 1D 3.5%
Friday April 17th, 2020 7W, 2D 3.2%
Saturday April 18th, 2020 7W, 3D 3%
Sunday April 19th, 2020 7W, 4D 2.8%
Monday April 20th, 2020 7W, 5D 2.6%
Tuesday April 21st, 2020 7W, 6D 2.5%
Wednesday April 22nd, 2020 8W, 0D 2.4%
Thursday April 23rd, 2020 8W, 1D 2.3%
Friday April 24th, 2020 8W, 2D 2.2%
Saturday April 25th, 2020 8W, 3D 2.2%
Sunday April 26th, 2020 8W, 4D 2.1%
Monday April 27th, 2020 8W, 5D 2.1%
Tuesday April 28th, 2020 8W, 6D 2.1%
Wednesday April 29th, 2020 9W, 0D 2.1%
Thursday April 30th, 2020 9W, 1D 2%
Friday May 1st, 2020 9W, 2D 2%
Saturday May 2nd, 2020 9W, 3D 2%
Sunday May 3rd, 2020 9W, 4D 2%
Monday May 4th, 2020 9W, 5D 2%
Tuesday May 5th, 2020 9W, 6D 2%
Wednesday May 6th, 2020 10W, 0D 2%
Thursday May 7th, 2020 10W, 1D 2%
Friday May 8th, 2020 10W, 2D 2%
Saturday May 9th, 2020 10W, 3D 2%
Sunday May 10th, 2020 10W, 4D 2%
Monday May 11th, 2020 10W, 5D 2%
Tuesday May 12th, 2020 10W, 6D 2%
Wednesday May 13th, 2020 11W, 0D 2%
Thursday May 14th, 2020 11W, 1D 2%
Friday May 15th, 2020 11W, 2D 2%
Saturday May 16th, 2020 11W, 3D 2%
Sunday May 17th, 2020 11W, 4D 2%
Monday May 18th, 2020 11W, 5D 2%
Tuesday May 19th, 2020 11W, 6D 2%
Wednesday May 20th, 2020 12W, 0D 2%
Thursday May 21st, 2020 12W, 1D 2%
Friday May 22nd, 2020 12W, 2D 2%
Saturday May 23rd, 2020 12W, 3D 2%
Sunday May 24th, 2020 12W, 4D 2%
Monday May 25th, 2020 12W, 5D 2%
Tuesday May 26th, 2020 12W, 6D 2%

Future probability of miscarriage at a given day

Notes and disclaimers

All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).

I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.

The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.

There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.

Charts are generated by flot.