Daily odds of pregnancy miscarriage

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This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.

The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of August 10th, 2018.

Change LMP:
Month Day Year
Date Progress Overall probability of miscarriage
Friday August 31st, 2018 3W, 0D 33%
Saturday September 1st, 2018 3W, 1D 32.9%
Sunday September 2nd, 2018 3W, 2D 32.6%
Monday September 3rd, 2018 3W, 3D 32%
Tuesday September 4th, 2018 3W, 4D 31.3%
Wednesday September 5th, 2018 3W, 5D 30.3%
Thursday September 6th, 2018 3W, 6D 29.2%
Friday September 7th, 2018 4W, 0D 28%
Saturday September 8th, 2018 4W, 1D 26.6%
Sunday September 9th, 2018 4W, 2D 25.2%
Monday September 10th, 2018 4W, 3D 23.6%
Tuesday September 11th, 2018 4W, 4D 22.1%
Wednesday September 12th, 2018 4W, 5D 20.5%
Thursday September 13th, 2018 4W, 6D 18.9%
Friday September 14th, 2018 5W, 0D 17.3%
Saturday September 15th, 2018 5W, 1D 15.8%
Sunday September 16th, 2018 5W, 2D 14.4%
Monday September 17th, 2018 5W, 3D 13%
Tuesday September 18th, 2018 5W, 4D 11.7%
Wednesday September 19th, 2018 5W, 5D 10.5%
Thursday September 20th, 2018 5W, 6D 9.4%
Friday September 21st, 2018 6W, 0D 8.4%
Saturday September 22nd, 2018 6W, 1D 7.5%
Sunday September 23rd, 2018 6W, 2D 6.6%
Monday September 24th, 2018 6W, 3D 5.9%
Tuesday September 25th, 2018 6W, 4D 5.3%
Wednesday September 26th, 2018 6W, 5D 4.7%
Thursday September 27th, 2018 6W, 6D 4.3%
Friday September 28th, 2018 7W, 0D 3.9%
Saturday September 29th, 2018 7W, 1D 3.5%
Sunday September 30th, 2018 7W, 2D 3.2%
Monday October 1st, 2018 7W, 3D 3%
Tuesday October 2nd, 2018 7W, 4D 2.8%
Wednesday October 3rd, 2018 7W, 5D 2.6%
Thursday October 4th, 2018 7W, 6D 2.5%
Friday October 5th, 2018 8W, 0D 2.4%
Saturday October 6th, 2018 8W, 1D 2.3%
Sunday October 7th, 2018 8W, 2D 2.2%
Monday October 8th, 2018 8W, 3D 2.2%
Tuesday October 9th, 2018 8W, 4D 2.1%
Wednesday October 10th, 2018 8W, 5D 2.1%
Thursday October 11th, 2018 8W, 6D 2.1%
Friday October 12th, 2018 9W, 0D 2.1%
Saturday October 13th, 2018 9W, 1D 2%
Sunday October 14th, 2018 9W, 2D 2%
Monday October 15th, 2018 9W, 3D 2%
Tuesday October 16th, 2018 9W, 4D 2%
Wednesday October 17th, 2018 9W, 5D 2%
Thursday October 18th, 2018 9W, 6D 2%
Friday October 19th, 2018 10W, 0D 2%
Saturday October 20th, 2018 10W, 1D 2%
Sunday October 21st, 2018 10W, 2D 2%
Monday October 22nd, 2018 10W, 3D 2%
Tuesday October 23rd, 2018 10W, 4D 2%
Wednesday October 24th, 2018 10W, 5D 2%
Thursday October 25th, 2018 10W, 6D 2%
Friday October 26th, 2018 11W, 0D 2%
Saturday October 27th, 2018 11W, 1D 2%
Sunday October 28th, 2018 11W, 2D 2%
Monday October 29th, 2018 11W, 3D 2%
Tuesday October 30th, 2018 11W, 4D 2%
Wednesday October 31st, 2018 11W, 5D 2%
Thursday November 1st, 2018 11W, 6D 2%
Friday November 2nd, 2018 12W, 0D 2%
Saturday November 3rd, 2018 12W, 1D 2%
Sunday November 4th, 2018 12W, 2D 2%
Monday November 5th, 2018 12W, 3D 2%
Tuesday November 6th, 2018 12W, 4D 2%
Wednesday November 7th, 2018 12W, 5D 2%
Thursday November 8th, 2018 12W, 6D 2%

Future probability of miscarriage at a given day

Notes and disclaimers

All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).

I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.

The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.

There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.

Charts are generated by flot.

Recent Comments

For more support, encouragement, Q&A, you are invited to join our pregnancy forum. We are dedicated to answering complicated questions as logically as we possibly can.

kids' mail subscriptions

Wed Dec 5 5:44 PM by melsbells in Pregnancy & Parenting

The books on Little Feminist look really great, lots of books featuring actual people instead of anthropomorphic animals.

I remember having a Highlights magazine once or twice as a kid, but I don't remember being interested in it or a connection to books.

housemates + newborn = ?

Thu Aug 2 11:57 AM by melsbells in Pregnancy & Parenting

I live with my in-laws, and while there will certainly be a lot of differences from your situation, maybe there's enough similarities that my experience could be useful to you. I think the biggest thing is that everyone has their own space. Our house is sort of divided in two, so we can take the kid to our end during a tantrum. I think that distance helps, not just with in-laws not wanting to hear screaming, but as a sort of physical signal for the kid to calm down. We lived in an apartment when the kid was first born and our neighbors there probably heard more screaming/crying due to proximity.

My father-in-law spends a lot of time with the kid, mostly by choice. I sometimes wish we had more of a schedule, because at the moment, naps and bedtime are the only semi-guaranteed breaks for anyone. My spouse and father-in-law both work from home free-lance, so they don't actually have a schedule for when they need to be left alone, but at least my father-in-law has more warning with jobs scheduled out in advance.

My Ectopic Pregnancy

Tue Jan 23 8:47 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

FYI we have a general culture in the pregnancy forum here about sharing similar stories as a way to offer support, and also about giving any medical knowledge that we've come across, since pregnancy is generally not talked about as much as it should be and you find information in random places. Since you haven't been around until now you probably didn't know that, and mels' post is well in line with forum guidelines and norms. Please don't go all mod martyr on us now that you're only just back. This is me as a friend speaking here, not with my modhat on.

I'm sorry for your loss. Ectopic pregnancies are scary, and I would like to go punch that first doctor in the face for you.

PPD is awful too. :( I hope you can get through it.

gender recognition

Thu Nov 2 1:03 PM by Nech in Pregnancy & Parenting

You can continue discussing with him the difference of a boy and a girl. Have him socialize too with the same gender. There's nothing wrong if you have go with opposite sex as long as he understands what/who he is.

So do you feel hanging out with the opposite gender at a young age can confuse a person's gender identity?

leftist parenting and gender [split from gender recognition]

Sat Sep 23 11:52 AM by Unvoiced_Apollo in Pregnancy & Parenting

gender recognition.">

If a boy who has a penis asks if he's a boy and you don't just say yes, then that's straight up lunacy.

What he decides to do with that boyhood or how he dresses is up to him. But if you're born with a penis you're a boy.

Making it airy fairy when, statistically, scientifically, less than 1% of 1% of children born have true gender dysphoria, is immoral and wrong. It's also a sign of our troubled times.

This is just my anecdotal experience but...

I have experienced bullying based on simply engaging in normal children's play with girls. Insults were attacks on both me and the girls. But I NEVER questioned my gender as a male. So if a child asks me if he's a boy and was identified biologically as one, I am going to question what influences are on the child before I answer.

How important is school?

Thu Nov 22 9:05 PM by Skeezy in Pregnancy & Parenting

I think the most important factor in any school is how much the teachers care about the students. Another important element is safety and how interactions between students can substract from learning. Many parents go to jail for quite lengthy sentences for trying to send to their kids to a safe good school.

I would say its very important, because what you learn shapes and molds yours views that make you who you are.

Unplanned, polyamorous pregnancy situation

Sun Apr 29 12:18 PM by metawidget in Pregnancy & Parenting

I'm glad you have been communicating and working things out. I wish you lots of health and love as you wrote the next chapter of this story.

I might be pregnant...

Fri Jan 5 3:16 AM by Aum in Pregnancy & Parenting

Aum, my partner and I were just discussing this. He was surprised by my taking the hard line that stopping BC or poking holes in condoms or something like that is rape, making the woman a rapist. Which should result in jail time, so she should lose custody, which should go to the father and now he has the choice of keeping the baby or putting them up for adoption.

It's unfortunate that you can't prove such a thing, but hopefully if it was actually taken seriously women would be less likely to do it because it would at least be explicitly called rape.

I understand how the justice system and the family courts would look at it. They see it as the man's sperm made it to the egg so somehow he wasn't protecting himself, he made the choice, yada yada. There's no way to prove that the woman was manipulative, withdrew BC, or "poked holes in the condom" (I think that's unheard of, but anyway).

When do you outsource parenting?

Sat Oct 14 7:47 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

yeah I do a ton of supplemental history... :(

It might be time for a baby.

Sat Sep 16 1:59 PM by Sonic# in Pregnancy & Parenting

I got curious on the question of single parent families. Definitely, I think financial stability or having some sort of support network (family, friends) is better than not having it.

I found this article ( https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4886836/ ). The article does point out that several factors adjust child adjustment, like finances and parental stress. Merely being a single parent? Not a factor:
The findings suggest that solo motherhood, in itself, does not result in psychological problems for children.

The lit review at the beginning of the article adds some specificity here. What seems hard on kids is not single parenthood itself; it's often the divorce that results in a single parent being involved. These studies have consistently shown that children whose parents divorce are more likely to show emotional and behavioral problems than are children in intact families (Amato, 2000, 2001, 2005; Coleman & Glenn, 2009; Hetherington & Stanley-Hagan, 1999; Pryor & Rodgers, 2001). However, the children’s difficulties appear to be largely associated with aspects of the divorce, rather than single-parenthood, in itself. Then there are people who become single parents, but not by choice. That's also rough, often because these parents lack the financial stability and stability to do well. So the article is really looking at single parents by choice. They can raise children as well as two-parent households.

How the 2nd pregnancy / labor was different from the first

Thu Sep 27 8:20 PM by antfancier in Pregnancy & Parenting

I haven’t been around for a long time, but I’m back and pregnant again. Only 6 weeks, so I can’t really comment much, but this time around it has been easier so far. Not easy, but considering I’m working and have a 2.5yr old (neither of which applied to last pregnancy), I thought I’d feel much worse. I still have ALL the symptoms and they all started at 3 weeks, just like last time (and the same as a chemical pregnancy I had too) but they don’t seem to be as constant as before. I’m really glad about that! The only thing that’s worse is back ache, ligament pain, general body aches. I assume it’s because my body is already exhausted and broken from my toddler.

posting pictures of kids and privacy

Wed Apr 25 7:29 AM by juliabonl17 in Pregnancy & Parenting

Usually, we don't share photos of our children in social media. Sometimes I can send some photos to close friends. I keep my personal life in quiet. Share with family only.

I had my 2nd baby!!!!

Wed Jan 3 8:21 PM by MFS in Pregnancy & Parenting


I am still dealing with the fact that your 11 year old is an actual 11 year old.

on being semi-pregnant

Tue Oct 3 7:18 PM by geldofc in Pregnancy & Parenting

congratulations!! i've never been pregnant but i'm jealous. i'm having baby fever lately.


Wed Sep 13 6:58 PM by geldofc in Pregnancy & Parenting

my clock started ticking in my 20s and i would love a child at 30 now but i want to live how i want for a few more years, and have my career established. i don't see parenthood for another 5 years.

egg freezing seems like a good option esp if you have extra time and money.