This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.
The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of August 10th, 2018.
| Date | Progress | Overall probability of miscarriage |
|---|---|---|
| Friday August 31st, 2018 | 3W, 0D | 33% |
| Saturday September 1st, 2018 | 3W, 1D | 32.9% |
| Sunday September 2nd, 2018 | 3W, 2D | 32.6% |
| Monday September 3rd, 2018 | 3W, 3D | 32% |
| Tuesday September 4th, 2018 | 3W, 4D | 31.3% |
| Wednesday September 5th, 2018 | 3W, 5D | 30.3% |
| Thursday September 6th, 2018 | 3W, 6D | 29.2% |
| Friday September 7th, 2018 | 4W, 0D | 28% |
| Saturday September 8th, 2018 | 4W, 1D | 26.6% |
| Sunday September 9th, 2018 | 4W, 2D | 25.2% |
| Monday September 10th, 2018 | 4W, 3D | 23.6% |
| Tuesday September 11th, 2018 | 4W, 4D | 22.1% |
| Wednesday September 12th, 2018 | 4W, 5D | 20.5% |
| Thursday September 13th, 2018 | 4W, 6D | 18.9% |
| Friday September 14th, 2018 | 5W, 0D | 17.3% |
| Saturday September 15th, 2018 | 5W, 1D | 15.8% |
| Sunday September 16th, 2018 | 5W, 2D | 14.4% |
| Monday September 17th, 2018 | 5W, 3D | 13% |
| Tuesday September 18th, 2018 | 5W, 4D | 11.7% |
| Wednesday September 19th, 2018 | 5W, 5D | 10.5% |
| Thursday September 20th, 2018 | 5W, 6D | 9.4% |
| Friday September 21st, 2018 | 6W, 0D | 8.4% |
| Saturday September 22nd, 2018 | 6W, 1D | 7.5% |
| Sunday September 23rd, 2018 | 6W, 2D | 6.6% |
| Monday September 24th, 2018 | 6W, 3D | 5.9% |
| Tuesday September 25th, 2018 | 6W, 4D | 5.3% |
| Wednesday September 26th, 2018 | 6W, 5D | 4.7% |
| Thursday September 27th, 2018 | 6W, 6D | 4.3% |
| Friday September 28th, 2018 | 7W, 0D | 3.9% |
| Saturday September 29th, 2018 | 7W, 1D | 3.5% |
| Sunday September 30th, 2018 | 7W, 2D | 3.2% |
| Monday October 1st, 2018 | 7W, 3D | 3% |
| Tuesday October 2nd, 2018 | 7W, 4D | 2.8% |
| Wednesday October 3rd, 2018 | 7W, 5D | 2.6% |
| Thursday October 4th, 2018 | 7W, 6D | 2.5% |
| Friday October 5th, 2018 | 8W, 0D | 2.4% |
| Saturday October 6th, 2018 | 8W, 1D | 2.3% |
| Sunday October 7th, 2018 | 8W, 2D | 2.2% |
| Monday October 8th, 2018 | 8W, 3D | 2.2% |
| Tuesday October 9th, 2018 | 8W, 4D | 2.1% |
| Wednesday October 10th, 2018 | 8W, 5D | 2.1% |
| Thursday October 11th, 2018 | 8W, 6D | 2.1% |
| Friday October 12th, 2018 | 9W, 0D | 2.1% |
| Saturday October 13th, 2018 | 9W, 1D | 2% |
| Sunday October 14th, 2018 | 9W, 2D | 2% |
| Monday October 15th, 2018 | 9W, 3D | 2% |
| Tuesday October 16th, 2018 | 9W, 4D | 2% |
| Wednesday October 17th, 2018 | 9W, 5D | 2% |
| Thursday October 18th, 2018 | 9W, 6D | 2% |
| Friday October 19th, 2018 | 10W, 0D | 2% |
| Saturday October 20th, 2018 | 10W, 1D | 2% |
| Sunday October 21st, 2018 | 10W, 2D | 2% |
| Monday October 22nd, 2018 | 10W, 3D | 2% |
| Tuesday October 23rd, 2018 | 10W, 4D | 2% |
| Wednesday October 24th, 2018 | 10W, 5D | 2% |
| Thursday October 25th, 2018 | 10W, 6D | 2% |
| Friday October 26th, 2018 | 11W, 0D | 2% |
| Saturday October 27th, 2018 | 11W, 1D | 2% |
| Sunday October 28th, 2018 | 11W, 2D | 2% |
| Monday October 29th, 2018 | 11W, 3D | 2% |
| Tuesday October 30th, 2018 | 11W, 4D | 2% |
| Wednesday October 31st, 2018 | 11W, 5D | 2% |
| Thursday November 1st, 2018 | 11W, 6D | 2% |
| Friday November 2nd, 2018 | 12W, 0D | 2% |
| Saturday November 3rd, 2018 | 12W, 1D | 2% |
| Sunday November 4th, 2018 | 12W, 2D | 2% |
| Monday November 5th, 2018 | 12W, 3D | 2% |
| Tuesday November 6th, 2018 | 12W, 4D | 2% |
| Wednesday November 7th, 2018 | 12W, 5D | 2% |
| Thursday November 8th, 2018 | 12W, 6D | 2% |
All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).
I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.
There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.
Charts are generated by flot.
I am still dealing with the fact that your 11 year old is an actual 11 year old.
egg freezing seems like a good option esp if you have extra time and money.
My father-in-law spends a lot of time with the kid, mostly by choice. I sometimes wish we had more of a schedule, because at the moment, naps and bedtime are the only semi-guaranteed breaks for anyone. My spouse and father-in-law both work from home free-lance, so they don't actually have a schedule for when they need to be left alone, but at least my father-in-law has more warning with jobs scheduled out in advance.
I'm sorry for your loss. Ectopic pregnancies are scary, and I would like to go punch that first doctor in the face for you.
PPD is awful too.
You can continue discussing with him the difference of a boy and a girl. Have him socialize too with the same gender. There's nothing wrong if you have go with opposite sex as long as he understands what/who he is.
So do you feel hanging out with the opposite gender at a young age can confuse a person's gender identity?
If a boy who has a penis asks if he's a boy and you don't just say yes, then that's straight up lunacy.
What he decides to do with that boyhood or how he dresses is up to him. But if you're born with a penis you're a boy.
Making it airy fairy when, statistically, scientifically, less than 1% of 1% of children born have true gender dysphoria, is immoral and wrong. It's also a sign of our troubled times.
This is just my anecdotal experience but...
I have experienced bullying based on simply engaging in normal children's play with girls. Insults were attacks on both me and the girls. But I NEVER questioned my gender as a male. So if a child asks me if he's a boy and was identified biologically as one, I am going to question what influences are on the child before I answer.
Aum, my partner and I were just discussing this. He was surprised by my taking the hard line that stopping BC or poking holes in condoms or something like that is rape, making the woman a rapist. Which should result in jail time, so she should lose custody, which should go to the father and now he has the choice of keeping the baby or putting them up for adoption.
It's unfortunate that you can't prove such a thing, but hopefully if it was actually taken seriously women would be less likely to do it because it would at least be explicitly called rape.
I understand how the justice system and the family courts would look at it. They see it as the man's sperm made it to the egg so somehow he wasn't protecting himself, he made the choice, yada yada. There's no way to prove that the woman was manipulative, withdrew BC, or "poked holes in the condom" (I think that's unheard of, but anyway).
I found this article (
The lit review at the beginning of the article adds some specificity here. What seems hard on kids is not single parenthood itself; it's often the divorce that results in a single parent being involved.
Then there are people who become single parents, but not by choice. That's also rough, often because these parents lack the financial stability and stability to do well. So the article is really looking at single parents by choice
- kid would like a sibling
- maybe people are right about end of life stuff
That's about it. I hated being pregnant, the last time I was pregnant the hormones were... really awful. Plus kid is now pretty big so another one would be weird and we gave away all our stuff.