This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.
The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of August 10th, 2012.
| Date | Progress | Overall probability of miscarriage |
|---|---|---|
| Friday August 31st, 2012 | 3W, 0D | 33% |
| Saturday September 1st, 2012 | 3W, 1D | 32.9% |
| Sunday September 2nd, 2012 | 3W, 2D | 32.6% |
| Monday September 3rd, 2012 | 3W, 3D | 32% |
| Tuesday September 4th, 2012 | 3W, 4D | 31.3% |
| Wednesday September 5th, 2012 | 3W, 5D | 30.3% |
| Thursday September 6th, 2012 | 3W, 6D | 29.2% |
| Friday September 7th, 2012 | 4W, 0D | 28% |
| Saturday September 8th, 2012 | 4W, 1D | 26.6% |
| Sunday September 9th, 2012 | 4W, 2D | 25.2% |
| Monday September 10th, 2012 | 4W, 3D | 23.6% |
| Tuesday September 11th, 2012 | 4W, 4D | 22.1% |
| Wednesday September 12th, 2012 | 4W, 5D | 20.5% |
| Thursday September 13th, 2012 | 4W, 6D | 18.9% |
| Friday September 14th, 2012 | 5W, 0D | 17.3% |
| Saturday September 15th, 2012 | 5W, 1D | 15.8% |
| Sunday September 16th, 2012 | 5W, 2D | 14.4% |
| Monday September 17th, 2012 | 5W, 3D | 13% |
| Tuesday September 18th, 2012 | 5W, 4D | 11.7% |
| Wednesday September 19th, 2012 | 5W, 5D | 10.5% |
| Thursday September 20th, 2012 | 5W, 6D | 9.4% |
| Friday September 21st, 2012 | 6W, 0D | 8.4% |
| Saturday September 22nd, 2012 | 6W, 1D | 7.5% |
| Sunday September 23rd, 2012 | 6W, 2D | 6.6% |
| Monday September 24th, 2012 | 6W, 3D | 5.9% |
| Tuesday September 25th, 2012 | 6W, 4D | 5.3% |
| Wednesday September 26th, 2012 | 6W, 5D | 4.7% |
| Thursday September 27th, 2012 | 6W, 6D | 4.3% |
| Friday September 28th, 2012 | 7W, 0D | 3.9% |
| Saturday September 29th, 2012 | 7W, 1D | 3.5% |
| Sunday September 30th, 2012 | 7W, 2D | 3.2% |
| Monday October 1st, 2012 | 7W, 3D | 3% |
| Tuesday October 2nd, 2012 | 7W, 4D | 2.8% |
| Wednesday October 3rd, 2012 | 7W, 5D | 2.6% |
| Thursday October 4th, 2012 | 7W, 6D | 2.5% |
| Friday October 5th, 2012 | 8W, 0D | 2.4% |
| Saturday October 6th, 2012 | 8W, 1D | 2.3% |
| Sunday October 7th, 2012 | 8W, 2D | 2.2% |
| Monday October 8th, 2012 | 8W, 3D | 2.2% |
| Tuesday October 9th, 2012 | 8W, 4D | 2.1% |
| Wednesday October 10th, 2012 | 8W, 5D | 2.1% |
| Thursday October 11th, 2012 | 8W, 6D | 2.1% |
| Friday October 12th, 2012 | 9W, 0D | 2.1% |
| Saturday October 13th, 2012 | 9W, 1D | 2% |
| Sunday October 14th, 2012 | 9W, 2D | 2% |
| Monday October 15th, 2012 | 9W, 3D | 2% |
| Tuesday October 16th, 2012 | 9W, 4D | 2% |
| Wednesday October 17th, 2012 | 9W, 5D | 2% |
| Thursday October 18th, 2012 | 9W, 6D | 2% |
| Friday October 19th, 2012 | 10W, 0D | 2% |
| Saturday October 20th, 2012 | 10W, 1D | 2% |
| Sunday October 21st, 2012 | 10W, 2D | 2% |
| Monday October 22nd, 2012 | 10W, 3D | 2% |
| Tuesday October 23rd, 2012 | 10W, 4D | 2% |
| Wednesday October 24th, 2012 | 10W, 5D | 2% |
| Thursday October 25th, 2012 | 10W, 6D | 2% |
| Friday October 26th, 2012 | 11W, 0D | 2% |
| Saturday October 27th, 2012 | 11W, 1D | 2% |
| Sunday October 28th, 2012 | 11W, 2D | 2% |
| Monday October 29th, 2012 | 11W, 3D | 2% |
| Tuesday October 30th, 2012 | 11W, 4D | 2% |
| Wednesday October 31st, 2012 | 11W, 5D | 2% |
| Thursday November 1st, 2012 | 11W, 6D | 2% |
| Friday November 2nd, 2012 | 12W, 0D | 2% |
| Saturday November 3rd, 2012 | 12W, 1D | 2% |
| Sunday November 4th, 2012 | 12W, 2D | 2% |
| Monday November 5th, 2012 | 12W, 3D | 2% |
| Tuesday November 6th, 2012 | 12W, 4D | 2% |
| Wednesday November 7th, 2012 | 12W, 5D | 2% |
| Thursday November 8th, 2012 | 12W, 6D | 2% |
All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).
I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.
There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.
Charts are generated by flot.
Looking at Wikipedia, I know I've read one of the cited articles before and found it interesting (Martin, C. L. (1990). "Attitudes and Expectations about Children with Nontraditional and Traditional Gender Roles". Sex Roles. 22 (3-4): 151–66.) The gist is that understandings of gender begin to emerge by ages 2 or 3, and they continue to develop over the course of years, which includes some stigma (esp. for boys) when people step outside of understood roles. Then this article is more recent than that (2017), by the same author, and (based on my skim) seems to have pretty decent coverage in the articles it uses (
egg freezing seems like a good option esp if you have extra time and money.
- kid would like a sibling
- maybe people are right about end of life stuff
That's about it. I hated being pregnant, the last time I was pregnant the hormones were... really awful. Plus kid is now pretty big so another one would be weird and we gave away all our stuff.
I can still highly recommend this book: (
Also, keep speaking English! Toddlers forget fast when a language is no longer present.
Yay bilingualism!
Yes, you have. Aum, you claimed I couldn't "handle this kind of counterinformation" and put words in my mouth. You attacked trans men who get pregnant and misgendered them by calling them "a biological woman" (hence my comment on "trans-hating diatribe", which describes what you said and which you continue to misconstrue as personal attack). You appeared to claim that what melsbells was doing "was immoral and wrong." Yes, you've since clarified the latter point, but if you want to know why people are arguing with you, it's because of that, because of the combative tone you set with your very first reply, and because of the moderator martyrdom that has been going on.
I thought stepping away would prevent the thread from going off-topic. I was wrong. So when Aum made more posts and I had a few days to focus on work, I decided to come back and think through some of this.
Somehow MIL has still given us a ton of pink clothing that she'll change him into everytime she comes over.
I hate pink.
I had an appointment with the obgyn today. He seems to think I'm even farther along than he originally thought. I didn't have an ultrasound. He just went by the size of my uterus. It's well over my belly button now. He's sending me to a high risk Dr. Asap and then I'm suppost to see him again on the 29th. By then he said they will have a better idea as to how far along I actually am. So far the pregnancy is going well. I did have complications with my first one and went to a specialist but this time I'm being referred to one because I'm old lol. They automatically send women when they are 35 and older.
I found this article (
The lit review at the beginning of the article adds some specificity here. What seems hard on kids is not single parenthood itself; it's often the divorce that results in a single parent being involved.
Then there are people who become single parents, but not by choice. That's also rough, often because these parents lack the financial stability and stability to do well. So the article is really looking at single parents by choice
Not having read your post, but just the heading, my response was "wine." But after reading your post, I thought "wine."
Yes. After bedtime.
Also, honestly the only way we made it through was we would take turns being the center of focus. We still do this, divide and conquer (and she's only one kid, hell). Also, I know people are like really limit screen time BUT if you really need to get something done one episode of e.g. Daniel Tiger or Paw Patrol or whatever isn't gonna be too bad. I think DarkOne has some good ideas too.
Good luck.
Also I know you can do wills and stuff on your own but honestly I found it super useful to talk through it with a lawyer who does that. She thought of things we never would have. (hm really should revisit now that kid is older) It was a one time fee and not that bad.
We do most of our banking through a credit union. Have been happy with them. We refinanced our mortgage through them when we did that. I remember the big credit union bust ages ago, but there are lots more protections in place now and big banks can be pretty awful.
Today for the first time my 11month old showed interest in a stuffed animal. Just before Christmas we received a box from Amazon with a giant bear inside. No gift wrap, no note. Just a bear the size of my child. It's been sat in his room and ignored completely, despite him exploring literally everything else that is in there. Then, out of the blue, he made a beeline for it and tried to pull its eyes out.