Daily odds of pregnancy miscarriage

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This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.

The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of August 10th, 2022.

Change LMP:
Month Day Year
Date Progress Overall probability of miscarriage
Wednesday August 31st, 2022 3W, 0D 33%
Thursday September 1st, 2022 3W, 1D 32.9%
Friday September 2nd, 2022 3W, 2D 32.6%
Saturday September 3rd, 2022 3W, 3D 32%
Sunday September 4th, 2022 3W, 4D 31.3%
Monday September 5th, 2022 3W, 5D 30.3%
Tuesday September 6th, 2022 3W, 6D 29.2%
Wednesday September 7th, 2022 4W, 0D 28%
Thursday September 8th, 2022 4W, 1D 26.6%
Friday September 9th, 2022 4W, 2D 25.2%
Saturday September 10th, 2022 4W, 3D 23.6%
Sunday September 11th, 2022 4W, 4D 22.1%
Monday September 12th, 2022 4W, 5D 20.5%
Tuesday September 13th, 2022 4W, 6D 18.9%
Wednesday September 14th, 2022 5W, 0D 17.3%
Thursday September 15th, 2022 5W, 1D 15.8%
Friday September 16th, 2022 5W, 2D 14.4%
Saturday September 17th, 2022 5W, 3D 13%
Sunday September 18th, 2022 5W, 4D 11.7%
Monday September 19th, 2022 5W, 5D 10.5%
Tuesday September 20th, 2022 5W, 6D 9.4%
Wednesday September 21st, 2022 6W, 0D 8.4%
Thursday September 22nd, 2022 6W, 1D 7.5%
Friday September 23rd, 2022 6W, 2D 6.6%
Saturday September 24th, 2022 6W, 3D 5.9%
Sunday September 25th, 2022 6W, 4D 5.3%
Monday September 26th, 2022 6W, 5D 4.7%
Tuesday September 27th, 2022 6W, 6D 4.3%
Wednesday September 28th, 2022 7W, 0D 3.9%
Thursday September 29th, 2022 7W, 1D 3.5%
Friday September 30th, 2022 7W, 2D 3.2%
Saturday October 1st, 2022 7W, 3D 3%
Sunday October 2nd, 2022 7W, 4D 2.8%
Monday October 3rd, 2022 7W, 5D 2.6%
Tuesday October 4th, 2022 7W, 6D 2.5%
Wednesday October 5th, 2022 8W, 0D 2.4%
Thursday October 6th, 2022 8W, 1D 2.3%
Friday October 7th, 2022 8W, 2D 2.2%
Saturday October 8th, 2022 8W, 3D 2.2%
Sunday October 9th, 2022 8W, 4D 2.1%
Monday October 10th, 2022 8W, 5D 2.1%
Tuesday October 11th, 2022 8W, 6D 2.1%
Wednesday October 12th, 2022 9W, 0D 2.1%
Thursday October 13th, 2022 9W, 1D 2%
Friday October 14th, 2022 9W, 2D 2%
Saturday October 15th, 2022 9W, 3D 2%
Sunday October 16th, 2022 9W, 4D 2%
Monday October 17th, 2022 9W, 5D 2%
Tuesday October 18th, 2022 9W, 6D 2%
Wednesday October 19th, 2022 10W, 0D 2%
Thursday October 20th, 2022 10W, 1D 2%
Friday October 21st, 2022 10W, 2D 2%
Saturday October 22nd, 2022 10W, 3D 2%
Sunday October 23rd, 2022 10W, 4D 2%
Monday October 24th, 2022 10W, 5D 2%
Tuesday October 25th, 2022 10W, 6D 2%
Wednesday October 26th, 2022 11W, 0D 2%
Thursday October 27th, 2022 11W, 1D 2%
Friday October 28th, 2022 11W, 2D 2%
Saturday October 29th, 2022 11W, 3D 2%
Sunday October 30th, 2022 11W, 4D 2%
Monday October 31st, 2022 11W, 5D 2%
Tuesday November 1st, 2022 11W, 6D 2%
Wednesday November 2nd, 2022 12W, 0D 2%
Thursday November 3rd, 2022 12W, 1D 2%
Friday November 4th, 2022 12W, 2D 2%
Saturday November 5th, 2022 12W, 3D 2%
Sunday November 6th, 2022 12W, 4D 2%
Monday November 7th, 2022 12W, 5D 2%
Tuesday November 8th, 2022 12W, 6D 2%

Future probability of miscarriage at a given day

Notes and disclaimers

All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).

I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.

The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.

There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.

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