This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.
The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of August 10th, 2019.
| Date | Progress | Overall probability of miscarriage |
|---|---|---|
| Saturday August 31st, 2019 | 3W, 0D | 33% |
| Sunday September 1st, 2019 | 3W, 1D | 32.9% |
| Monday September 2nd, 2019 | 3W, 2D | 32.6% |
| Tuesday September 3rd, 2019 | 3W, 3D | 32% |
| Wednesday September 4th, 2019 | 3W, 4D | 31.3% |
| Thursday September 5th, 2019 | 3W, 5D | 30.3% |
| Friday September 6th, 2019 | 3W, 6D | 29.2% |
| Saturday September 7th, 2019 | 4W, 0D | 28% |
| Sunday September 8th, 2019 | 4W, 1D | 26.6% |
| Monday September 9th, 2019 | 4W, 2D | 25.2% |
| Tuesday September 10th, 2019 | 4W, 3D | 23.6% |
| Wednesday September 11th, 2019 | 4W, 4D | 22.1% |
| Thursday September 12th, 2019 | 4W, 5D | 20.5% |
| Friday September 13th, 2019 | 4W, 6D | 18.9% |
| Saturday September 14th, 2019 | 5W, 0D | 17.3% |
| Sunday September 15th, 2019 | 5W, 1D | 15.8% |
| Monday September 16th, 2019 | 5W, 2D | 14.4% |
| Tuesday September 17th, 2019 | 5W, 3D | 13% |
| Wednesday September 18th, 2019 | 5W, 4D | 11.7% |
| Thursday September 19th, 2019 | 5W, 5D | 10.5% |
| Friday September 20th, 2019 | 5W, 6D | 9.4% |
| Saturday September 21st, 2019 | 6W, 0D | 8.4% |
| Sunday September 22nd, 2019 | 6W, 1D | 7.5% |
| Monday September 23rd, 2019 | 6W, 2D | 6.6% |
| Tuesday September 24th, 2019 | 6W, 3D | 5.9% |
| Wednesday September 25th, 2019 | 6W, 4D | 5.3% |
| Thursday September 26th, 2019 | 6W, 5D | 4.7% |
| Friday September 27th, 2019 | 6W, 6D | 4.3% |
| Saturday September 28th, 2019 | 7W, 0D | 3.9% |
| Sunday September 29th, 2019 | 7W, 1D | 3.5% |
| Monday September 30th, 2019 | 7W, 2D | 3.2% |
| Tuesday October 1st, 2019 | 7W, 3D | 3% |
| Wednesday October 2nd, 2019 | 7W, 4D | 2.8% |
| Thursday October 3rd, 2019 | 7W, 5D | 2.6% |
| Friday October 4th, 2019 | 7W, 6D | 2.5% |
| Saturday October 5th, 2019 | 8W, 0D | 2.4% |
| Sunday October 6th, 2019 | 8W, 1D | 2.3% |
| Monday October 7th, 2019 | 8W, 2D | 2.2% |
| Tuesday October 8th, 2019 | 8W, 3D | 2.2% |
| Wednesday October 9th, 2019 | 8W, 4D | 2.1% |
| Thursday October 10th, 2019 | 8W, 5D | 2.1% |
| Friday October 11th, 2019 | 8W, 6D | 2.1% |
| Saturday October 12th, 2019 | 9W, 0D | 2.1% |
| Sunday October 13th, 2019 | 9W, 1D | 2% |
| Monday October 14th, 2019 | 9W, 2D | 2% |
| Tuesday October 15th, 2019 | 9W, 3D | 2% |
| Wednesday October 16th, 2019 | 9W, 4D | 2% |
| Thursday October 17th, 2019 | 9W, 5D | 2% |
| Friday October 18th, 2019 | 9W, 6D | 2% |
| Saturday October 19th, 2019 | 10W, 0D | 2% |
| Sunday October 20th, 2019 | 10W, 1D | 2% |
| Monday October 21st, 2019 | 10W, 2D | 2% |
| Tuesday October 22nd, 2019 | 10W, 3D | 2% |
| Wednesday October 23rd, 2019 | 10W, 4D | 2% |
| Thursday October 24th, 2019 | 10W, 5D | 2% |
| Friday October 25th, 2019 | 10W, 6D | 2% |
| Saturday October 26th, 2019 | 11W, 0D | 2% |
| Sunday October 27th, 2019 | 11W, 1D | 2% |
| Monday October 28th, 2019 | 11W, 2D | 2% |
| Tuesday October 29th, 2019 | 11W, 3D | 2% |
| Wednesday October 30th, 2019 | 11W, 4D | 2% |
| Thursday October 31st, 2019 | 11W, 5D | 2% |
| Friday November 1st, 2019 | 11W, 6D | 2% |
| Saturday November 2nd, 2019 | 12W, 0D | 2% |
| Sunday November 3rd, 2019 | 12W, 1D | 2% |
| Monday November 4th, 2019 | 12W, 2D | 2% |
| Tuesday November 5th, 2019 | 12W, 3D | 2% |
| Wednesday November 6th, 2019 | 12W, 4D | 2% |
| Thursday November 7th, 2019 | 12W, 5D | 2% |
| Friday November 8th, 2019 | 12W, 6D | 2% |
All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).
I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.
There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.
Charts are generated by flot.
My father-in-law spends a lot of time with the kid, mostly by choice. I sometimes wish we had more of a schedule, because at the moment, naps and bedtime are the only semi-guaranteed breaks for anyone. My spouse and father-in-law both work from home free-lance, so they don't actually have a schedule for when they need to be left alone, but at least my father-in-law has more warning with jobs scheduled out in advance.
I'm sorry for your loss. Ectopic pregnancies are scary, and I would like to go punch that first doctor in the face for you.
PPD is awful too.
When I worked in a biligual Kita, the kids picked up loads from simply being read to and pointing out the different things. Sometimes a question came up ("that is a pferd", "it's called horse in English", "ok horse") and it's good to know both languages to understand what the kid is saying, but reading is a good together activity
I would say its very important, because what you learn shapes and molds yours views that make you who you are.
Aum, my partner and I were just discussing this. He was surprised by my taking the hard line that stopping BC or poking holes in condoms or something like that is rape, making the woman a rapist. Which should result in jail time, so she should lose custody, which should go to the father and now he has the choice of keeping the baby or putting them up for adoption.
It's unfortunate that you can't prove such a thing, but hopefully if it was actually taken seriously women would be less likely to do it because it would at least be explicitly called rape.
I understand how the justice system and the family courts would look at it. They see it as the man's sperm made it to the egg so somehow he wasn't protecting himself, he made the choice, yada yada. There's no way to prove that the woman was manipulative, withdrew BC, or "poked holes in the condom" (I think that's unheard of, but anyway).
no
I topped baby off tonight. He straight up drank 7 ounces of formula after his prunes. If he's an infiltrator, he's eating well for it.
I am still dealing with the fact that your 11 year old is an actual 11 year old.
If a boy who has a penis asks if he's a boy and you don't just say yes, then that's straight up lunacy.
What he decides to do with that boyhood or how he dresses is up to him. But if you're born with a penis you're a boy.
Making it airy fairy when, statistically, scientifically, less than 1% of 1% of children born have true gender dysphoria, is immoral and wrong. It's also a sign of our troubled times.
This is just my anecdotal experience but...
I have experienced bullying based on simply engaging in normal children's play with girls. Insults were attacks on both me and the girls. But I NEVER questioned my gender as a male. So if a child asks me if he's a boy and was identified biologically as one, I am going to question what influences are on the child before I answer.