This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.
The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of August 10th, 2020.
| Date | Progress | Overall probability of miscarriage |
|---|---|---|
| Monday August 31st, 2020 | 3W, 0D | 33% |
| Tuesday September 1st, 2020 | 3W, 1D | 32.9% |
| Wednesday September 2nd, 2020 | 3W, 2D | 32.6% |
| Thursday September 3rd, 2020 | 3W, 3D | 32% |
| Friday September 4th, 2020 | 3W, 4D | 31.3% |
| Saturday September 5th, 2020 | 3W, 5D | 30.3% |
| Sunday September 6th, 2020 | 3W, 6D | 29.2% |
| Monday September 7th, 2020 | 4W, 0D | 28% |
| Tuesday September 8th, 2020 | 4W, 1D | 26.6% |
| Wednesday September 9th, 2020 | 4W, 2D | 25.2% |
| Thursday September 10th, 2020 | 4W, 3D | 23.6% |
| Friday September 11th, 2020 | 4W, 4D | 22.1% |
| Saturday September 12th, 2020 | 4W, 5D | 20.5% |
| Sunday September 13th, 2020 | 4W, 6D | 18.9% |
| Monday September 14th, 2020 | 5W, 0D | 17.3% |
| Tuesday September 15th, 2020 | 5W, 1D | 15.8% |
| Wednesday September 16th, 2020 | 5W, 2D | 14.4% |
| Thursday September 17th, 2020 | 5W, 3D | 13% |
| Friday September 18th, 2020 | 5W, 4D | 11.7% |
| Saturday September 19th, 2020 | 5W, 5D | 10.5% |
| Sunday September 20th, 2020 | 5W, 6D | 9.4% |
| Monday September 21st, 2020 | 6W, 0D | 8.4% |
| Tuesday September 22nd, 2020 | 6W, 1D | 7.5% |
| Wednesday September 23rd, 2020 | 6W, 2D | 6.6% |
| Thursday September 24th, 2020 | 6W, 3D | 5.9% |
| Friday September 25th, 2020 | 6W, 4D | 5.3% |
| Saturday September 26th, 2020 | 6W, 5D | 4.7% |
| Sunday September 27th, 2020 | 6W, 6D | 4.3% |
| Monday September 28th, 2020 | 7W, 0D | 3.9% |
| Tuesday September 29th, 2020 | 7W, 1D | 3.5% |
| Wednesday September 30th, 2020 | 7W, 2D | 3.2% |
| Thursday October 1st, 2020 | 7W, 3D | 3% |
| Friday October 2nd, 2020 | 7W, 4D | 2.8% |
| Saturday October 3rd, 2020 | 7W, 5D | 2.6% |
| Sunday October 4th, 2020 | 7W, 6D | 2.5% |
| Monday October 5th, 2020 | 8W, 0D | 2.4% |
| Tuesday October 6th, 2020 | 8W, 1D | 2.3% |
| Wednesday October 7th, 2020 | 8W, 2D | 2.2% |
| Thursday October 8th, 2020 | 8W, 3D | 2.2% |
| Friday October 9th, 2020 | 8W, 4D | 2.1% |
| Saturday October 10th, 2020 | 8W, 5D | 2.1% |
| Sunday October 11th, 2020 | 8W, 6D | 2.1% |
| Monday October 12th, 2020 | 9W, 0D | 2.1% |
| Tuesday October 13th, 2020 | 9W, 1D | 2% |
| Wednesday October 14th, 2020 | 9W, 2D | 2% |
| Thursday October 15th, 2020 | 9W, 3D | 2% |
| Friday October 16th, 2020 | 9W, 4D | 2% |
| Saturday October 17th, 2020 | 9W, 5D | 2% |
| Sunday October 18th, 2020 | 9W, 6D | 2% |
| Monday October 19th, 2020 | 10W, 0D | 2% |
| Tuesday October 20th, 2020 | 10W, 1D | 2% |
| Wednesday October 21st, 2020 | 10W, 2D | 2% |
| Thursday October 22nd, 2020 | 10W, 3D | 2% |
| Friday October 23rd, 2020 | 10W, 4D | 2% |
| Saturday October 24th, 2020 | 10W, 5D | 2% |
| Sunday October 25th, 2020 | 10W, 6D | 2% |
| Monday October 26th, 2020 | 11W, 0D | 2% |
| Tuesday October 27th, 2020 | 11W, 1D | 2% |
| Wednesday October 28th, 2020 | 11W, 2D | 2% |
| Thursday October 29th, 2020 | 11W, 3D | 2% |
| Friday October 30th, 2020 | 11W, 4D | 2% |
| Saturday October 31st, 2020 | 11W, 5D | 2% |
| Sunday November 1st, 2020 | 11W, 6D | 2% |
| Monday November 2nd, 2020 | 12W, 0D | 2% |
| Tuesday November 3rd, 2020 | 12W, 1D | 2% |
| Wednesday November 4th, 2020 | 12W, 2D | 2% |
| Thursday November 5th, 2020 | 12W, 3D | 2% |
| Friday November 6th, 2020 | 12W, 4D | 2% |
| Saturday November 7th, 2020 | 12W, 5D | 2% |
| Sunday November 8th, 2020 | 12W, 6D | 2% |
All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).
I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.
There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.
Charts are generated by flot.