This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.
The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of August 10th, 2022.
| Date | Progress | Overall probability of miscarriage |
|---|---|---|
| Wednesday August 31st, 2022 | 3W, 0D | 33% |
| Thursday September 1st, 2022 | 3W, 1D | 32.9% |
| Friday September 2nd, 2022 | 3W, 2D | 32.6% |
| Saturday September 3rd, 2022 | 3W, 3D | 32% |
| Sunday September 4th, 2022 | 3W, 4D | 31.3% |
| Monday September 5th, 2022 | 3W, 5D | 30.3% |
| Tuesday September 6th, 2022 | 3W, 6D | 29.2% |
| Wednesday September 7th, 2022 | 4W, 0D | 28% |
| Thursday September 8th, 2022 | 4W, 1D | 26.6% |
| Friday September 9th, 2022 | 4W, 2D | 25.2% |
| Saturday September 10th, 2022 | 4W, 3D | 23.6% |
| Sunday September 11th, 2022 | 4W, 4D | 22.1% |
| Monday September 12th, 2022 | 4W, 5D | 20.5% |
| Tuesday September 13th, 2022 | 4W, 6D | 18.9% |
| Wednesday September 14th, 2022 | 5W, 0D | 17.3% |
| Thursday September 15th, 2022 | 5W, 1D | 15.8% |
| Friday September 16th, 2022 | 5W, 2D | 14.4% |
| Saturday September 17th, 2022 | 5W, 3D | 13% |
| Sunday September 18th, 2022 | 5W, 4D | 11.7% |
| Monday September 19th, 2022 | 5W, 5D | 10.5% |
| Tuesday September 20th, 2022 | 5W, 6D | 9.4% |
| Wednesday September 21st, 2022 | 6W, 0D | 8.4% |
| Thursday September 22nd, 2022 | 6W, 1D | 7.5% |
| Friday September 23rd, 2022 | 6W, 2D | 6.6% |
| Saturday September 24th, 2022 | 6W, 3D | 5.9% |
| Sunday September 25th, 2022 | 6W, 4D | 5.3% |
| Monday September 26th, 2022 | 6W, 5D | 4.7% |
| Tuesday September 27th, 2022 | 6W, 6D | 4.3% |
| Wednesday September 28th, 2022 | 7W, 0D | 3.9% |
| Thursday September 29th, 2022 | 7W, 1D | 3.5% |
| Friday September 30th, 2022 | 7W, 2D | 3.2% |
| Saturday October 1st, 2022 | 7W, 3D | 3% |
| Sunday October 2nd, 2022 | 7W, 4D | 2.8% |
| Monday October 3rd, 2022 | 7W, 5D | 2.6% |
| Tuesday October 4th, 2022 | 7W, 6D | 2.5% |
| Wednesday October 5th, 2022 | 8W, 0D | 2.4% |
| Thursday October 6th, 2022 | 8W, 1D | 2.3% |
| Friday October 7th, 2022 | 8W, 2D | 2.2% |
| Saturday October 8th, 2022 | 8W, 3D | 2.2% |
| Sunday October 9th, 2022 | 8W, 4D | 2.1% |
| Monday October 10th, 2022 | 8W, 5D | 2.1% |
| Tuesday October 11th, 2022 | 8W, 6D | 2.1% |
| Wednesday October 12th, 2022 | 9W, 0D | 2.1% |
| Thursday October 13th, 2022 | 9W, 1D | 2% |
| Friday October 14th, 2022 | 9W, 2D | 2% |
| Saturday October 15th, 2022 | 9W, 3D | 2% |
| Sunday October 16th, 2022 | 9W, 4D | 2% |
| Monday October 17th, 2022 | 9W, 5D | 2% |
| Tuesday October 18th, 2022 | 9W, 6D | 2% |
| Wednesday October 19th, 2022 | 10W, 0D | 2% |
| Thursday October 20th, 2022 | 10W, 1D | 2% |
| Friday October 21st, 2022 | 10W, 2D | 2% |
| Saturday October 22nd, 2022 | 10W, 3D | 2% |
| Sunday October 23rd, 2022 | 10W, 4D | 2% |
| Monday October 24th, 2022 | 10W, 5D | 2% |
| Tuesday October 25th, 2022 | 10W, 6D | 2% |
| Wednesday October 26th, 2022 | 11W, 0D | 2% |
| Thursday October 27th, 2022 | 11W, 1D | 2% |
| Friday October 28th, 2022 | 11W, 2D | 2% |
| Saturday October 29th, 2022 | 11W, 3D | 2% |
| Sunday October 30th, 2022 | 11W, 4D | 2% |
| Monday October 31st, 2022 | 11W, 5D | 2% |
| Tuesday November 1st, 2022 | 11W, 6D | 2% |
| Wednesday November 2nd, 2022 | 12W, 0D | 2% |
| Thursday November 3rd, 2022 | 12W, 1D | 2% |
| Friday November 4th, 2022 | 12W, 2D | 2% |
| Saturday November 5th, 2022 | 12W, 3D | 2% |
| Sunday November 6th, 2022 | 12W, 4D | 2% |
| Monday November 7th, 2022 | 12W, 5D | 2% |
| Tuesday November 8th, 2022 | 12W, 6D | 2% |
All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).
I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.
There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.
Charts are generated by flot.