Daily odds of pregnancy miscarriage

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This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.

The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of October 28th, 2017.

Change LMP:
Month Day Year
Date Progress Overall probability of miscarriage
Saturday November 18th, 2017 3W, 0D 33%
Sunday November 19th, 2017 3W, 1D 32.9%
Monday November 20th, 2017 3W, 2D 32.6%
Tuesday November 21st, 2017 3W, 3D 32%
Wednesday November 22nd, 2017 3W, 4D 31.3%
Thursday November 23rd, 2017 3W, 5D 30.3%
Friday November 24th, 2017 3W, 6D 29.2%
Saturday November 25th, 2017 4W, 0D 28%
Sunday November 26th, 2017 4W, 1D 26.6%
Monday November 27th, 2017 4W, 2D 25.2%
Tuesday November 28th, 2017 4W, 3D 23.6%
Wednesday November 29th, 2017 4W, 4D 22.1%
Thursday November 30th, 2017 4W, 5D 20.5%
Friday December 1st, 2017 4W, 6D 18.9%
Saturday December 2nd, 2017 5W, 0D 17.3%
Sunday December 3rd, 2017 5W, 1D 15.8%
Monday December 4th, 2017 5W, 2D 14.4%
Tuesday December 5th, 2017 5W, 3D 13%
Wednesday December 6th, 2017 5W, 4D 11.7%
Thursday December 7th, 2017 5W, 5D 10.5%
Friday December 8th, 2017 5W, 6D 9.4%
Saturday December 9th, 2017 6W, 0D 8.4%
Sunday December 10th, 2017 6W, 1D 7.5%
Monday December 11th, 2017 6W, 2D 6.6%
Tuesday December 12th, 2017 6W, 3D 5.9%
Wednesday December 13th, 2017 6W, 4D 5.3%
Thursday December 14th, 2017 6W, 5D 4.7%
Friday December 15th, 2017 6W, 6D 4.3%
Saturday December 16th, 2017 7W, 0D 3.9%
Sunday December 17th, 2017 7W, 1D 3.5%
Monday December 18th, 2017 7W, 2D 3.2%
Tuesday December 19th, 2017 7W, 3D 3%
Wednesday December 20th, 2017 7W, 4D 2.8%
Thursday December 21st, 2017 7W, 5D 2.6%
Friday December 22nd, 2017 7W, 6D 2.5%
Saturday December 23rd, 2017 8W, 0D 2.4%
Sunday December 24th, 2017 8W, 1D 2.3%
Monday December 25th, 2017 8W, 2D 2.2%
Tuesday December 26th, 2017 8W, 3D 2.2%
Wednesday December 27th, 2017 8W, 4D 2.1%
Thursday December 28th, 2017 8W, 5D 2.1%
Friday December 29th, 2017 8W, 6D 2.1%
Saturday December 30th, 2017 9W, 0D 2.1%
Sunday December 31st, 2017 9W, 1D 2%
Monday January 1st, 2018 9W, 2D 2%
Tuesday January 2nd, 2018 9W, 3D 2%
Wednesday January 3rd, 2018 9W, 4D 2%
Thursday January 4th, 2018 9W, 5D 2%
Friday January 5th, 2018 9W, 6D 2%
Saturday January 6th, 2018 10W, 0D 2%
Sunday January 7th, 2018 10W, 1D 2%
Monday January 8th, 2018 10W, 2D 2%
Tuesday January 9th, 2018 10W, 3D 2%
Wednesday January 10th, 2018 10W, 4D 2%
Thursday January 11th, 2018 10W, 5D 2%
Friday January 12th, 2018 10W, 6D 2%
Saturday January 13th, 2018 11W, 0D 2%
Sunday January 14th, 2018 11W, 1D 2%
Monday January 15th, 2018 11W, 2D 2%
Tuesday January 16th, 2018 11W, 3D 2%
Wednesday January 17th, 2018 11W, 4D 2%
Thursday January 18th, 2018 11W, 5D 2%
Friday January 19th, 2018 11W, 6D 2%
Saturday January 20th, 2018 12W, 0D 2%
Sunday January 21st, 2018 12W, 1D 2%
Monday January 22nd, 2018 12W, 2D 2%
Tuesday January 23rd, 2018 12W, 3D 2%
Wednesday January 24th, 2018 12W, 4D 2%
Thursday January 25th, 2018 12W, 5D 2%
Friday January 26th, 2018 12W, 6D 2%

Future probability of miscarriage at a given day

Notes and disclaimers

All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).

I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.

The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.

There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.

Charts are generated by flot.