Daily odds of pregnancy miscarriage

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This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.

The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of October 28th, 2017.

Change LMP:
Month Day Year
Date Progress Overall probability of miscarriage
Saturday November 18th, 2017 3W, 0D 33%
Sunday November 19th, 2017 3W, 1D 32.9%
Monday November 20th, 2017 3W, 2D 32.6%
Tuesday November 21st, 2017 3W, 3D 32%
Wednesday November 22nd, 2017 3W, 4D 31.3%
Thursday November 23rd, 2017 3W, 5D 30.3%
Friday November 24th, 2017 3W, 6D 29.2%
Saturday November 25th, 2017 4W, 0D 28%
Sunday November 26th, 2017 4W, 1D 26.6%
Monday November 27th, 2017 4W, 2D 25.2%
Tuesday November 28th, 2017 4W, 3D 23.6%
Wednesday November 29th, 2017 4W, 4D 22.1%
Thursday November 30th, 2017 4W, 5D 20.5%
Friday December 1st, 2017 4W, 6D 18.9%
Saturday December 2nd, 2017 5W, 0D 17.3%
Sunday December 3rd, 2017 5W, 1D 15.8%
Monday December 4th, 2017 5W, 2D 14.4%
Tuesday December 5th, 2017 5W, 3D 13%
Wednesday December 6th, 2017 5W, 4D 11.7%
Thursday December 7th, 2017 5W, 5D 10.5%
Friday December 8th, 2017 5W, 6D 9.4%
Saturday December 9th, 2017 6W, 0D 8.4%
Sunday December 10th, 2017 6W, 1D 7.5%
Monday December 11th, 2017 6W, 2D 6.6%
Tuesday December 12th, 2017 6W, 3D 5.9%
Wednesday December 13th, 2017 6W, 4D 5.3%
Thursday December 14th, 2017 6W, 5D 4.7%
Friday December 15th, 2017 6W, 6D 4.3%
Saturday December 16th, 2017 7W, 0D 3.9%
Sunday December 17th, 2017 7W, 1D 3.5%
Monday December 18th, 2017 7W, 2D 3.2%
Tuesday December 19th, 2017 7W, 3D 3%
Wednesday December 20th, 2017 7W, 4D 2.8%
Thursday December 21st, 2017 7W, 5D 2.6%
Friday December 22nd, 2017 7W, 6D 2.5%
Saturday December 23rd, 2017 8W, 0D 2.4%
Sunday December 24th, 2017 8W, 1D 2.3%
Monday December 25th, 2017 8W, 2D 2.2%
Tuesday December 26th, 2017 8W, 3D 2.2%
Wednesday December 27th, 2017 8W, 4D 2.1%
Thursday December 28th, 2017 8W, 5D 2.1%
Friday December 29th, 2017 8W, 6D 2.1%
Saturday December 30th, 2017 9W, 0D 2.1%
Sunday December 31st, 2017 9W, 1D 2%
Monday January 1st, 2018 9W, 2D 2%
Tuesday January 2nd, 2018 9W, 3D 2%
Wednesday January 3rd, 2018 9W, 4D 2%
Thursday January 4th, 2018 9W, 5D 2%
Friday January 5th, 2018 9W, 6D 2%
Saturday January 6th, 2018 10W, 0D 2%
Sunday January 7th, 2018 10W, 1D 2%
Monday January 8th, 2018 10W, 2D 2%
Tuesday January 9th, 2018 10W, 3D 2%
Wednesday January 10th, 2018 10W, 4D 2%
Thursday January 11th, 2018 10W, 5D 2%
Friday January 12th, 2018 10W, 6D 2%
Saturday January 13th, 2018 11W, 0D 2%
Sunday January 14th, 2018 11W, 1D 2%
Monday January 15th, 2018 11W, 2D 2%
Tuesday January 16th, 2018 11W, 3D 2%
Wednesday January 17th, 2018 11W, 4D 2%
Thursday January 18th, 2018 11W, 5D 2%
Friday January 19th, 2018 11W, 6D 2%
Saturday January 20th, 2018 12W, 0D 2%
Sunday January 21st, 2018 12W, 1D 2%
Monday January 22nd, 2018 12W, 2D 2%
Tuesday January 23rd, 2018 12W, 3D 2%
Wednesday January 24th, 2018 12W, 4D 2%
Thursday January 25th, 2018 12W, 5D 2%
Friday January 26th, 2018 12W, 6D 2%

Future probability of miscarriage at a given day

Notes and disclaimers

All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).

I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.

The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.

There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.

Charts are generated by flot.

Recent Comments

For more support, encouragement, Q&A, you are invited to join our pregnancy forum. We are dedicated to answering complicated questions as logically as we possibly can.

Fundraising for St. Jude Children's Research Hospital

Wed Aug 14 5:27 PM by melsbells in Pregnancy & Parenting

Great job making your goal and helping out your teammate reach hers.

kids' mail subscriptions

Wed Jan 9 6:41 PM by melsbells in Pregnancy & Parenting

We got the first box last week. Kid wanted to do the whole thing in one sitting, which was tough. He has a hard time stopping something, even when it's obvious he needs a break. He doesn't have the best conception of time yet either and kept talking about the box that would come tomorrow. So getting something once a month might help pin down the passage of time. As far as my concerns, we had a great opportunity (when he was disappointed that the Europe page didn't say anything about Finland) to talk about how a single page on a whole continent or even an individual country can't tell us what a place and culture is like. Bavaria was mentioned, so we also got to talk about how our German friend feels when people only think of Bavarian things when thinking of Germany, which she doesn't feel a connection to.

housemates + newborn = ?

Thu Aug 2 11:57 AM by melsbells in Pregnancy & Parenting

I live with my in-laws, and while there will certainly be a lot of differences from your situation, maybe there's enough similarities that my experience could be useful to you. I think the biggest thing is that everyone has their own space. Our house is sort of divided in two, so we can take the kid to our end during a tantrum. I think that distance helps, not just with in-laws not wanting to hear screaming, but as a sort of physical signal for the kid to calm down. We lived in an apartment when the kid was first born and our neighbors there probably heard more screaming/crying due to proximity.

My father-in-law spends a lot of time with the kid, mostly by choice. I sometimes wish we had more of a schedule, because at the moment, naps and bedtime are the only semi-guaranteed breaks for anyone. My spouse and father-in-law both work from home free-lance, so they don't actually have a schedule for when they need to be left alone, but at least my father-in-law has more warning with jobs scheduled out in advance.

My Ectopic Pregnancy

Tue Jan 23 8:47 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

FYI we have a general culture in the pregnancy forum here about sharing similar stories as a way to offer support, and also about giving any medical knowledge that we've come across, since pregnancy is generally not talked about as much as it should be and you find information in random places. Since you haven't been around until now you probably didn't know that, and mels' post is well in line with forum guidelines and norms. Please don't go all mod martyr on us now that you're only just back. This is me as a friend speaking here, not with my modhat on.

I'm sorry for your loss. Ectopic pregnancies are scary, and I would like to go punch that first doctor in the face for you.

PPD is awful too. :( I hope you can get through it.

When do you outsource parenting?

Sat Oct 14 7:47 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

yeah I do a ton of supplemental history... :(

learning to read

Wed May 22 8:34 PM by Nachos in Pregnancy & Parenting

Late to the party, sorry.

When I worked in a biligual Kita, the kids picked up loads from simply being read to and pointing out the different things. Sometimes a question came up ("that is a pferd", "it's called horse in English", "ok horse") and it's good to know both languages to understand what the kid is saying, but reading is a good together activity :)

How important is school?

Thu Nov 22 9:05 PM by Skeezy in Pregnancy & Parenting

I think the most important factor in any school is how much the teachers care about the students. Another important element is safety and how interactions between students can substract from learning. Many parents go to jail for quite lengthy sentences for trying to send to their kids to a safe good school.

I would say its very important, because what you learn shapes and molds yours views that make you who you are.

Unplanned, polyamorous pregnancy situation

Sun Apr 29 12:18 PM by metawidget in Pregnancy & Parenting

I'm glad you have been communicating and working things out. I wish you lots of health and love as you wrote the next chapter of this story.

I might be pregnant...

Fri Jan 5 3:16 AM by Aum in Pregnancy & Parenting

Aum, my partner and I were just discussing this. He was surprised by my taking the hard line that stopping BC or poking holes in condoms or something like that is rape, making the woman a rapist. Which should result in jail time, so she should lose custody, which should go to the father and now he has the choice of keeping the baby or putting them up for adoption.

It's unfortunate that you can't prove such a thing, but hopefully if it was actually taken seriously women would be less likely to do it because it would at least be explicitly called rape.

I understand how the justice system and the family courts would look at it. They see it as the man's sperm made it to the egg so somehow he wasn't protecting himself, he made the choice, yada yada. There's no way to prove that the woman was manipulative, withdrew BC, or "poked holes in the condom" (I think that's unheard of, but anyway).

on being semi-pregnant

Tue Oct 3 7:18 PM by geldofc in Pregnancy & Parenting

congratulations!! i've never been pregnant but i'm jealous. i'm having baby fever lately.

Sleep for babies after 6 months

Thu Jan 10 1:30 AM by Sonic# in Pregnancy & Parenting

Thank you for the stories. I try not to get caught up in comparisons, but it's so hard when someone else is like, "Oh yeah, they're sleeping through the night after six months, no problem!" and we're nudging each other when it's our turn to get up at night almost every night. Did I do something wrong? (The answer is probably no, but a lack of sleep makes it harder to get there mentally.)

I topped baby off tonight. He straight up drank 7 ounces of formula after his prunes. If he's an infiltrator, he's eating well for it. :)

How the 2nd pregnancy / labor was different from the first

Thu Sep 27 8:20 PM by antfancier in Pregnancy & Parenting

I haven’t been around for a long time, but I’m back and pregnant again. Only 6 weeks, so I can’t really comment much, but this time around it has been easier so far. Not easy, but considering I’m working and have a 2.5yr old (neither of which applied to last pregnancy), I thought I’d feel much worse. I still have ALL the symptoms and they all started at 3 weeks, just like last time (and the same as a chemical pregnancy I had too) but they don’t seem to be as constant as before. I’m really glad about that! The only thing that’s worse is back ache, ligament pain, general body aches. I assume it’s because my body is already exhausted and broken from my toddler.

posting pictures of kids and privacy

Wed Apr 25 7:29 AM by juliabonl17 in Pregnancy & Parenting

Usually, we don't share photos of our children in social media. Sometimes I can send some photos to close friends. I keep my personal life in quiet. Share with family only.

I had my 2nd baby!!!!

Wed Jan 3 8:21 PM by MFS in Pregnancy & Parenting


I am still dealing with the fact that your 11 year old is an actual 11 year old.

leftist parenting and gender [split from gender recognition]

Sat Sep 23 11:52 AM by Unvoiced_Apollo in Pregnancy & Parenting

gender recognition.">

If a boy who has a penis asks if he's a boy and you don't just say yes, then that's straight up lunacy.

What he decides to do with that boyhood or how he dresses is up to him. But if you're born with a penis you're a boy.

Making it airy fairy when, statistically, scientifically, less than 1% of 1% of children born have true gender dysphoria, is immoral and wrong. It's also a sign of our troubled times.

This is just my anecdotal experience but...

I have experienced bullying based on simply engaging in normal children's play with girls. Insults were attacks on both me and the girls. But I NEVER questioned my gender as a male. So if a child asks me if he's a boy and was identified biologically as one, I am going to question what influences are on the child before I answer.