Daily odds of pregnancy miscarriage

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This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.

The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of October 28th, 2017.

Change LMP:
Month Day Year
Date Progress Overall probability of miscarriage
Saturday November 18th, 2017 3W, 0D 33%
Sunday November 19th, 2017 3W, 1D 32.9%
Monday November 20th, 2017 3W, 2D 32.6%
Tuesday November 21st, 2017 3W, 3D 32%
Wednesday November 22nd, 2017 3W, 4D 31.3%
Thursday November 23rd, 2017 3W, 5D 30.3%
Friday November 24th, 2017 3W, 6D 29.2%
Saturday November 25th, 2017 4W, 0D 28%
Sunday November 26th, 2017 4W, 1D 26.6%
Monday November 27th, 2017 4W, 2D 25.2%
Tuesday November 28th, 2017 4W, 3D 23.6%
Wednesday November 29th, 2017 4W, 4D 22.1%
Thursday November 30th, 2017 4W, 5D 20.5%
Friday December 1st, 2017 4W, 6D 18.9%
Saturday December 2nd, 2017 5W, 0D 17.3%
Sunday December 3rd, 2017 5W, 1D 15.8%
Monday December 4th, 2017 5W, 2D 14.4%
Tuesday December 5th, 2017 5W, 3D 13%
Wednesday December 6th, 2017 5W, 4D 11.7%
Thursday December 7th, 2017 5W, 5D 10.5%
Friday December 8th, 2017 5W, 6D 9.4%
Saturday December 9th, 2017 6W, 0D 8.4%
Sunday December 10th, 2017 6W, 1D 7.5%
Monday December 11th, 2017 6W, 2D 6.6%
Tuesday December 12th, 2017 6W, 3D 5.9%
Wednesday December 13th, 2017 6W, 4D 5.3%
Thursday December 14th, 2017 6W, 5D 4.7%
Friday December 15th, 2017 6W, 6D 4.3%
Saturday December 16th, 2017 7W, 0D 3.9%
Sunday December 17th, 2017 7W, 1D 3.5%
Monday December 18th, 2017 7W, 2D 3.2%
Tuesday December 19th, 2017 7W, 3D 3%
Wednesday December 20th, 2017 7W, 4D 2.8%
Thursday December 21st, 2017 7W, 5D 2.6%
Friday December 22nd, 2017 7W, 6D 2.5%
Saturday December 23rd, 2017 8W, 0D 2.4%
Sunday December 24th, 2017 8W, 1D 2.3%
Monday December 25th, 2017 8W, 2D 2.2%
Tuesday December 26th, 2017 8W, 3D 2.2%
Wednesday December 27th, 2017 8W, 4D 2.1%
Thursday December 28th, 2017 8W, 5D 2.1%
Friday December 29th, 2017 8W, 6D 2.1%
Saturday December 30th, 2017 9W, 0D 2.1%
Sunday December 31st, 2017 9W, 1D 2%
Monday January 1st, 2018 9W, 2D 2%
Tuesday January 2nd, 2018 9W, 3D 2%
Wednesday January 3rd, 2018 9W, 4D 2%
Thursday January 4th, 2018 9W, 5D 2%
Friday January 5th, 2018 9W, 6D 2%
Saturday January 6th, 2018 10W, 0D 2%
Sunday January 7th, 2018 10W, 1D 2%
Monday January 8th, 2018 10W, 2D 2%
Tuesday January 9th, 2018 10W, 3D 2%
Wednesday January 10th, 2018 10W, 4D 2%
Thursday January 11th, 2018 10W, 5D 2%
Friday January 12th, 2018 10W, 6D 2%
Saturday January 13th, 2018 11W, 0D 2%
Sunday January 14th, 2018 11W, 1D 2%
Monday January 15th, 2018 11W, 2D 2%
Tuesday January 16th, 2018 11W, 3D 2%
Wednesday January 17th, 2018 11W, 4D 2%
Thursday January 18th, 2018 11W, 5D 2%
Friday January 19th, 2018 11W, 6D 2%
Saturday January 20th, 2018 12W, 0D 2%
Sunday January 21st, 2018 12W, 1D 2%
Monday January 22nd, 2018 12W, 2D 2%
Tuesday January 23rd, 2018 12W, 3D 2%
Wednesday January 24th, 2018 12W, 4D 2%
Thursday January 25th, 2018 12W, 5D 2%
Friday January 26th, 2018 12W, 6D 2%

Future probability of miscarriage at a given day

Notes and disclaimers

All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).

I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.

The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.

There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.

Charts are generated by flot.

Recent Comments

For more support, encouragement, Q&A, you are invited to join our pregnancy forum. We are dedicated to answering complicated questions as logically as we possibly can.

How the 2nd pregnancy / labor was different from the first

Sun Aug 19 9:06 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

I've only got the one lol. From watching friends though I'd say mostly that 2nd pregnancies can be extremely different from the first one sometimes? Not too helpful but at least it's normal.

posting pictures of kids and privacy

Wed Apr 25 7:29 AM by juliabonl17 in Pregnancy & Parenting

Usually, we don't share photos of our children in social media. Sometimes I can send some photos to close friends. I keep my personal life in quiet. Share with family only.

I had my 2nd baby!!!!

Wed Jan 3 8:21 PM by MFS in Pregnancy & Parenting


I am still dealing with the fact that your 11 year old is an actual 11 year old.

on being semi-pregnant

Tue Oct 3 7:18 PM by geldofc in Pregnancy & Parenting

congratulations!! i've never been pregnant but i'm jealous. i'm having baby fever lately.


Wed Sep 13 6:58 PM by geldofc in Pregnancy & Parenting

my clock started ticking in my 20s and i would love a child at 30 now but i want to live how i want for a few more years, and have my career established. i don't see parenthood for another 5 years.

egg freezing seems like a good option esp if you have extra time and money.

housemates + newborn = ?

Thu Aug 2 11:57 AM by melsbells in Pregnancy & Parenting

I live with my in-laws, and while there will certainly be a lot of differences from your situation, maybe there's enough similarities that my experience could be useful to you. I think the biggest thing is that everyone has their own space. Our house is sort of divided in two, so we can take the kid to our end during a tantrum. I think that distance helps, not just with in-laws not wanting to hear screaming, but as a sort of physical signal for the kid to calm down. We lived in an apartment when the kid was first born and our neighbors there probably heard more screaming/crying due to proximity.

My father-in-law spends a lot of time with the kid, mostly by choice. I sometimes wish we had more of a schedule, because at the moment, naps and bedtime are the only semi-guaranteed breaks for anyone. My spouse and father-in-law both work from home free-lance, so they don't actually have a schedule for when they need to be left alone, but at least my father-in-law has more warning with jobs scheduled out in advance.

My Ectopic Pregnancy

Tue Jan 23 8:47 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

FYI we have a general culture in the pregnancy forum here about sharing similar stories as a way to offer support, and also about giving any medical knowledge that we've come across, since pregnancy is generally not talked about as much as it should be and you find information in random places. Since you haven't been around until now you probably didn't know that, and mels' post is well in line with forum guidelines and norms. Please don't go all mod martyr on us now that you're only just back. This is me as a friend speaking here, not with my modhat on.

I'm sorry for your loss. Ectopic pregnancies are scary, and I would like to go punch that first doctor in the face for you.

PPD is awful too. :( I hope you can get through it.

gender recognition

Thu Nov 2 1:03 PM by Nech in Pregnancy & Parenting

You can continue discussing with him the difference of a boy and a girl. Have him socialize too with the same gender. There's nothing wrong if you have go with opposite sex as long as he understands what/who he is.

So do you feel hanging out with the opposite gender at a young age can confuse a person's gender identity?

leftist parenting and gender [split from gender recognition]

Sat Sep 23 11:52 AM by Unvoiced_Apollo in Pregnancy & Parenting

gender recognition.">

If a boy who has a penis asks if he's a boy and you don't just say yes, then that's straight up lunacy.

What he decides to do with that boyhood or how he dresses is up to him. But if you're born with a penis you're a boy.

Making it airy fairy when, statistically, scientifically, less than 1% of 1% of children born have true gender dysphoria, is immoral and wrong. It's also a sign of our troubled times.

This is just my anecdotal experience but...

I have experienced bullying based on simply engaging in normal children's play with girls. Insults were attacks on both me and the girls. But I NEVER questioned my gender as a male. So if a child asks me if he's a boy and was identified biologically as one, I am going to question what influences are on the child before I answer.

Postpartum issues: things that can go wrong after

Wed Aug 9 5:24 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

ugh that totes doesn't just happen during c-section. I had a friend who found out when she was having (other) surgery years later and they stitched her up since "they were in there anyway". Honestly I think I also have it but it doesn't cause problems *most* of the time (sometimes stabby pain but no one takes it seriously so idk).

Unplanned, polyamorous pregnancy situation

Sun Apr 29 12:18 PM by metawidget in Pregnancy & Parenting

I'm glad you have been communicating and working things out. I wish you lots of health and love as you wrote the next chapter of this story.

I might be pregnant...

Fri Jan 5 3:16 AM by Aum in Pregnancy & Parenting

Aum, my partner and I were just discussing this. He was surprised by my taking the hard line that stopping BC or poking holes in condoms or something like that is rape, making the woman a rapist. Which should result in jail time, so she should lose custody, which should go to the father and now he has the choice of keeping the baby or putting them up for adoption.

It's unfortunate that you can't prove such a thing, but hopefully if it was actually taken seriously women would be less likely to do it because it would at least be explicitly called rape.

I understand how the justice system and the family courts would look at it. They see it as the man's sperm made it to the egg so somehow he wasn't protecting himself, he made the choice, yada yada. There's no way to prove that the woman was manipulative, withdrew BC, or "poked holes in the condom" (I think that's unheard of, but anyway).

When do you outsource parenting?

Sat Oct 14 7:47 PM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

yeah I do a ton of supplemental history... :(

It might be time for a baby.

Sat Sep 16 1:59 PM by Sonic# in Pregnancy & Parenting

I got curious on the question of single parent families. Definitely, I think financial stability or having some sort of support network (family, friends) is better than not having it.

I found this article ( https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4886836/ ). The article does point out that several factors adjust child adjustment, like finances and parental stress. Merely being a single parent? Not a factor:
The findings suggest that solo motherhood, in itself, does not result in psychological problems for children.

The lit review at the beginning of the article adds some specificity here. What seems hard on kids is not single parenthood itself; it's often the divorce that results in a single parent being involved. These studies have consistently shown that children whose parents divorce are more likely to show emotional and behavioral problems than are children in intact families (Amato, 2000, 2001, 2005; Coleman & Glenn, 2009; Hetherington & Stanley-Hagan, 1999; Pryor & Rodgers, 2001). However, the children’s difficulties appear to be largely associated with aspects of the divorce, rather than single-parenthood, in itself. Then there are people who become single parents, but not by choice. That's also rough, often because these parents lack the financial stability and stability to do well. So the article is really looking at single parents by choice. They can raise children as well as two-parent households.

bad reasons for having a baby

Tue Aug 1 1:47 AM by rowan in Pregnancy & Parenting

but I take them to restaurants so I know they end up hating 90% of the things they ask for.

- kid would like a sibling

- maybe people are right about end of life stuff

That's about it. I hated being pregnant, the last time I was pregnant the hormones were... really awful. Plus kid is now pretty big so another one would be weird and we gave away all our stuff. ;)