Daily odds of pregnancy miscarriage

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This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.

The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of November 7th, 2015.

Change LMP:
Month Day Year
Date Progress Overall probability of miscarriage
Saturday November 28th, 2015 3W, 0D 33%
Sunday November 29th, 2015 3W, 1D 32.9%
Monday November 30th, 2015 3W, 2D 32.6%
Tuesday December 1st, 2015 3W, 3D 32%
Wednesday December 2nd, 2015 3W, 4D 31.3%
Thursday December 3rd, 2015 3W, 5D 30.3%
Friday December 4th, 2015 3W, 6D 29.2%
Saturday December 5th, 2015 4W, 0D 28%
Sunday December 6th, 2015 4W, 1D 26.6%
Monday December 7th, 2015 4W, 2D 25.2%
Tuesday December 8th, 2015 4W, 3D 23.6%
Wednesday December 9th, 2015 4W, 4D 22.1%
Thursday December 10th, 2015 4W, 5D 20.5%
Friday December 11th, 2015 4W, 6D 18.9%
Saturday December 12th, 2015 5W, 0D 17.3%
Sunday December 13th, 2015 5W, 1D 15.8%
Monday December 14th, 2015 5W, 2D 14.4%
Tuesday December 15th, 2015 5W, 3D 13%
Wednesday December 16th, 2015 5W, 4D 11.7%
Thursday December 17th, 2015 5W, 5D 10.5%
Friday December 18th, 2015 5W, 6D 9.4%
Saturday December 19th, 2015 6W, 0D 8.4%
Sunday December 20th, 2015 6W, 1D 7.5%
Monday December 21st, 2015 6W, 2D 6.6%
Tuesday December 22nd, 2015 6W, 3D 5.9%
Wednesday December 23rd, 2015 6W, 4D 5.3%
Thursday December 24th, 2015 6W, 5D 4.7%
Friday December 25th, 2015 6W, 6D 4.3%
Saturday December 26th, 2015 7W, 0D 3.9%
Sunday December 27th, 2015 7W, 1D 3.5%
Monday December 28th, 2015 7W, 2D 3.2%
Tuesday December 29th, 2015 7W, 3D 3%
Wednesday December 30th, 2015 7W, 4D 2.8%
Thursday December 31st, 2015 7W, 5D 2.6%
Friday January 1st, 2016 7W, 6D 2.5%
Saturday January 2nd, 2016 8W, 0D 2.4%
Sunday January 3rd, 2016 8W, 1D 2.3%
Monday January 4th, 2016 8W, 2D 2.2%
Tuesday January 5th, 2016 8W, 3D 2.2%
Wednesday January 6th, 2016 8W, 4D 2.1%
Thursday January 7th, 2016 8W, 5D 2.1%
Friday January 8th, 2016 8W, 6D 2.1%
Saturday January 9th, 2016 9W, 0D 2.1%
Sunday January 10th, 2016 9W, 1D 2%
Monday January 11th, 2016 9W, 2D 2%
Tuesday January 12th, 2016 9W, 3D 2%
Wednesday January 13th, 2016 9W, 4D 2%
Thursday January 14th, 2016 9W, 5D 2%
Friday January 15th, 2016 9W, 6D 2%
Saturday January 16th, 2016 10W, 0D 2%
Sunday January 17th, 2016 10W, 1D 2%
Monday January 18th, 2016 10W, 2D 2%
Tuesday January 19th, 2016 10W, 3D 2%
Wednesday January 20th, 2016 10W, 4D 2%
Thursday January 21st, 2016 10W, 5D 2%
Friday January 22nd, 2016 10W, 6D 2%
Saturday January 23rd, 2016 11W, 0D 2%
Sunday January 24th, 2016 11W, 1D 2%
Monday January 25th, 2016 11W, 2D 2%
Tuesday January 26th, 2016 11W, 3D 2%
Wednesday January 27th, 2016 11W, 4D 2%
Thursday January 28th, 2016 11W, 5D 2%
Friday January 29th, 2016 11W, 6D 2%
Saturday January 30th, 2016 12W, 0D 2%
Sunday January 31st, 2016 12W, 1D 2%
Monday February 1st, 2016 12W, 2D 2%
Tuesday February 2nd, 2016 12W, 3D 2%
Wednesday February 3rd, 2016 12W, 4D 2%
Thursday February 4th, 2016 12W, 5D 2%
Friday February 5th, 2016 12W, 6D 2%

Future probability of miscarriage at a given day

Notes and disclaimers

All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).

I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.

The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.

There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.

Charts are generated by flot.